The economic value of liquid biopsy for genomic profiling in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

Background: Liquid biopsy (LB) can detect actionable genomic alterations in plasma circulating tumor circulating tumor DNA beyond tissue testing (TT) alone in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of adding LB to TT in the Canadian healthcare system. Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a decision analytic Markov model from the Canadian public payer (Ontario) perspective and a 2-year time horizon in patients with treatment-naïve stage IV non-squamous NSCLC and ⩽10 pack-year smoking history. LB was performed using the comprehensive genomic profiling Guardant360™ assay. Standard of care TT for each participating institution was performed. Costs and outcomes of molecular testing by LB + TT were compared to TT alone. Transition probabilities were calculated from the VALUE trial (NCT03576937). Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty in the model. Results: Use of LB + TT identified actionable alterations in more patients, 68.5 versus 52.7% with TT alone. Use of the LB + TT strategy resulted in an incremental cost savings of $3065 CAD per patient (95% CI, 2195-3945) and a gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 0.02 (95% CI, 0.01-0.02) versus TT alone. More patients received chemo-immunotherapy based on TT with higher overall costs, whereas more patients received targeted therapy based on LB + TT with net cost savings. Major drivers of cost-effectiveness were drug acquisition costs and prevalence of actionable alterations. Conclusion: The addition of LB to TT as initial molecular testing of clinically selected patients with advanced NSCLC did not increase system costs and led to more patients receiving appropriate targeted therapy.

The cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis screening and treatment among recently resettled refugees to Canada: an economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Many refugees and asylum seekers from countries where schistosomiasis is endemic are infected with the Schistosoma parasite when they arrive in Canada. We assessed, from a systemic perspective, which of the following management strategies by health care providers is cost-effective: testing for schistosomiasis and treating if the individual is infected, treating presumptively or waiting for symptoms to emerge. METHODS: We constructed a decision-tree model to examine the cost-effectiveness of 3 management strategies: watchful waiting, screening and treatment, and presumptive treatment. We obtained data for the model from the literature and other sources, to predict deaths and chronic complications caused by schistosomiasis, as well as costs and net monetary benefit. RESULTS: Presumptive treatment was cost-saving if the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the target population was greater than 2.1%. In our baseline analysis, presumptive treatment was associated with an increase of 0.156 quality-adjusted life years and a cost saving of $405 per person, compared with watchful waiting. It was also more effective and less costly than screening and treatment. INTERPRETATION: Among recently resettled refugees and asylum claimants in Canada, from countries where schistosomiasis is endemic, presumptive treatment was predicted to be less costly and more effective than watchful waiting or screening and treatment. Our results support a revision of the current Canadian recommendations.

Model to Determine the Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Psoriasis Patients for Psoriatic Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Screening psoriasis patients for psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is intended to identify patients at earlier stages of the disease. Early treatment is expected to slow disease progression and delay the need for biologic therapy. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of screening for PsA in patients with psoriasis in Canada. METHODS: A Markov model was built to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of screening tools for PsA in psoriasis patients. The screening tools included the Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screen, Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool, Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation, and Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire (EARP) questionnaires. States of health were defined by disability levels as measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire. State transitions were modeled based on annual disease progression. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and incremental net monetary benefits were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for parameter uncertainty and to test model assumptions. RESULTS: Screening was cost-effective compared to no screening. The EARP tool had the lowest total cost ($2,000 per patient per year saved compared to no screening) and the highest total QALYs (additional 0.18 per patient compared to no screening). The results were most sensitive to test accuracy and the efficacy of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs). No screening was cost-effective (at $50,000 per QALY) relative to screening when DMARDs failed to slow disease progression. CONCLUSION: If early therapy with DMARDs delays biologic treatment, implementing screening in patients with psoriasis in Canada is expected to represent a cost savings of $220 million per year and improve the quality of life.

Economic evaluation of 4 bovine leukemia virus control strategies for Alberta dairy farms.

Bovine leukemia virus (BLV) is a production-limiting disease common in North American dairy herds. To make evidence-based recommendations to Canadian dairy producers and their consultants regarding cost and financial benefits of BLV on-farm control, an economic model that takes the supply-managed milk quota system into account is necessary. Alberta-specific input variables were used for the presented analysis. A decision tree model program was used to evaluate economic aspects of decreasing a 40% BLV within-herd prevalence on dairy farms by implementing various control strategies over 10 yr. Investigated strategies were (1) all management strategies, including 3 options for colostrum management; (2) some management strategies; (3) test and cull; and (4) test and segregate. Each of these strategies was compared with a no control on-farm approach. The prevalence for this no-control approach was assumed to stay constant over time. Each control strategy incurred specific yearly cost and yielded yearly decreases in prevalence, thereby affecting yearly partial net revenue. Infection with BLV was assumed to decrease milk production, decrease cow longevity, and increase condemnation of carcasses at slaughter from cattle with enzootic bovine leukosis, thereby decreasing net revenue. Cows infected with BLV generated a yearly mean partial net revenue of Can$7,641, whereas noninfected cows generated Can$8,276. Mean cost for the control strategies ranged from Can$193 to Can$847 per animal over 10 yr in a 146-animal herd. Net benefits of controlling BLV on farm, as compared with not controlling BLV, per cow in a 146-animal herd over a 10-yr period for each strategy was: Can$1,315 for all management strategies (freezer); Can$1,243 for all management strategies (pasteurizer); Can$785 for all management strategies (powdered colostrum); Can$1,028 for some management strategies; Can$1,592 for test and cull; and Can$1,594 for test and segregate. Consequently, on-farm BLV control was financially beneficial. Even though negative net benefits were possible and expected for some iterations, our sensitivity analysis highlighted the overall robustness of our model. In summary, this model provided evidence that Canadian dairy farmers should be encouraged to control BLV on their farm.

Psoriatic arthritis screening: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the accuracy and characteristics of different questionnaire-based PsA screening tools. METHODS: A systematic review of MEDLINE, Excerpta Medical Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Web of Science was conducted to identify studies that evaluated the accuracy of self-administered PsA screening tools for patients with psoriasis. A bivariate meta-analysis was used to pool screening tool-specific accuracy estimates (sensitivity and specificity). Heterogeneity of the diagnostic odds ratio was evaluated through meta-regression. All full-text records were assessed for risk of bias with the QUADAS 2 tool. RESULTS: A total of 2280 references were identified and 130 records were assessed for full-text review, of which 42 were included for synthesis. Of these, 27 were included in quantitative syntheses. Of the records, 37% had an overall low risk of bias. Fourteen different screening tools and 104 separate accuracy estimates were identified. Pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates were calculated for the Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation (cut-off = 44), Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation (47), Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screening (8), Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool (3) and Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire (3). The Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire reported the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.85 each). The I2 for the diagnostic odds ratios varied between 76 and 90.1%. Meta-regressions were conducted, in which the age, risk of bias for patient selection and the screening tool accounted for some of the observed heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: Questionnaire-based tools have moderate accuracy to identify PsA among psoriasis patients. The Early Psoriatic Arthritis Screening Questionnaire appears to have slightly better accuracy compared with the Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Screening, Psoriasis Epidemiology Screening Tool and Psoriatic Arthritis Screening and Evaluation. An economic evaluation could model the uncertainty and estimate the cost-effectiveness of PsA screening programs that use different tools.

The adverse health effects and harms related to marijuana use: an overview review.

BACKGROUND: With impending marijuana legislation in Canada, a broad understanding of the harms associated with marijuana use is needed to inform the clinical community and public, and to support evidence-informed public policy development. The purpose of the review was to synthesize the evidence on adverse health effects and harms of marijuana use. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase, PsycINFO, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Health Technology Assessment Database from the inception of each database to May 2018. Given that systematic reviews evaluating one or other specific harm have been published, this is an overview review with the primary objective of assessing a health effect or harm. Data on author, country and year of publication, search strategy and results, and outcomes were extracted. Quality was assessed using the AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews) checklist. RESULTS: The final analysis included 68 reviews. Evidence of harm was reported in 62 reviews for several mental health disorders, brain changes, cognitive outcomes, pregnancy outcomes and testicular cancer. Inconclusive evidence was found for 20 outcomes (some mental health outcomes, other types of cancers and all-cause mortality). No evidence of harm was reported for 6 outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Harm was associated with most outcomes assessed. These results should be viewed with concern by physicians and policy-makers given the prevalence of use, the persistent reporting of a lack of recognition of marijuana as a possibly harmful substance and the emerging context of legalization for recreational use.

Multiparametric MRI to improve detection of prostate cancer compared with transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy alone: the PROMIS study.

BACKGROUND: Men with suspected prostate cancer usually undergo transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy. TRUS-guided biopsy can cause side effects and has relatively poor diagnostic accuracy. Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) used as a triage test might allow men to avoid unnecessary TRUS-guided biopsy and improve diagnostic accuracy. OBJECTIVES: To (1) assess the ability of mpMRI to identify men who can safely avoid unnecessary biopsy, (2) assess the ability of the mpMRI-based pathway to improve the rate of detection of clinically significant (CS) cancer compared with TRUS-guided biopsy and (3) estimate the cost-effectiveness of a mpMRI-based diagnostic pathway. DESIGN: A validating paired-cohort study and an economic evaluation using a decision-analytic model. SETTING: Eleven NHS hospitals in England. PARTICIPANTS: Men at risk of prostate cancer undergoing a first prostate biopsy. INTERVENTIONS: Participants underwent three tests: (1) mpMRI (the index test), (2) TRUS-guided biopsy (the current standard) and (3) template prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy (the reference test). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnostic accuracy of mpMRI, TRUS-guided biopsy and TPM-biopsy measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) using primary and secondary definitions of CS cancer. The percentage of negative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans was used to identify men who might be able to avoid biopsy. RESULTS: Diagnostic study - a total of 740 men were registered and 576 underwent all three tests. According to TPM-biopsy, the prevalence of any cancer was 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67% to 75%]. The prevalence of CS cancer according to the primary definition (a Gleason score of ≥ 4 + 3 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 6 mm) was 40% (95% CI 36% to 44%). For CS cancer, TRUS-guided biopsy showed a sensitivity of 48% (95% CI 42% to 55%), specificity of 96% (95% CI 94% to 98%), PPV of 90% (95% CI 83% to 94%) and NPV of 74% (95% CI 69% to 78%). The sensitivity of mpMRI was 93% (95% CI 88% to 96%), specificity was 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%), PPV was 51% (95% CI 46% to 56%) and NPV was 89% (95% CI 83% to 94%). A negative mpMRI scan was recorded for 158 men (27%). Of these, 17 were found to have CS cancer on TPM-biopsy. Economic evaluation - the most cost-effective strategy involved testing all men with mpMRI, followed by MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy in those patients with suspected CS cancer, followed by rebiopsy if CS cancer was not detected. This strategy is cost-effective at the TRUS-guided biopsy definition 2 (any Gleason pattern of ≥ 4 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 4 mm), mpMRI definition 2 (lesion volume of ≥ 0.2 ml and/or Gleason score of ≥ 3 + 4) and cut-off point 2 (likely to be benign) and detects 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) of CS cancers. The main drivers of cost-effectiveness were the unit costs of tests, the improvement in sensitivity of MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy compared with blind TRUS-guided biopsy and the longer-term costs and outcomes of men with cancer. LIMITATIONS: The PROstate Magnetic resonance Imaging Study (PROMIS) was carried out in a selected group and excluded men with a prostate volume of > 100 ml, who are less likely to have cancer. The limitations in the economic modelling arise from the limited evidence on the long-term outcomes of men with prostate cancer and on the sensitivity of MRI-targeted repeat biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating mpMRI into the diagnostic pathway as an initial test prior to prostate biopsy may (1) reduce the proportion of men having unnecessary biopsies, (2) improve the detection of CS prostate cancer and (3) increase the cost-effectiveness of the prostate cancer diagnostic and therapeutic pathway. The PROMIS data set will be used for future research; this is likely to include modelling prognostic factors for CS cancer, optimising MRI scan sequencing and biomarker or translational research analyses using the blood and urine samples collected. Better-quality evidence on long-term outcomes in prostate cancer under the various management strategies is required to better assess cost-effectiveness. The value-of-information analysis should be developed further to assess new research to commission. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16082556 and NCT01292291. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This project was also supported and partially funded by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London (UCL) Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and UCL and by The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research Biomedical Research Centre and was co-ordinated by the Medical Research Council's Clinical Trials Unit at UCL (grant code MC_UU_12023/28). It was sponsored by UCL. Funding for the additional collection of blood and urine samples for translational research was provided by Prostate Cancer UK.

Palliative care in the home: a scoping review of study quality, primary outcomes, and thematic component analysis.

BACKGROUND: The aim of palliative care is to improve the quality of life of patients and families through the prevention and relief of suffering. Frequently, patients may choose to receive palliative care in the home. The objective of this paper is to summarize the quality and primary outcomes measured within the palliative care in the home literature. This will synthesize the current state of the literature and inform future work. METHODS: A scoping review was completed using PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EconLit, PsycINFO, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database were searched from inception to August 2016. Inclusion criteria included: 1) care was provided in the "home of the patient" as defined by the study, 2) outcomes were reported, and 3) reported original data. Thematic component analysis was completed to categorize interventions. RESULTS: Fifty-three studies formed the final data set. The literature varied extensively. Five themes were identified: accessibility of healthcare, caregiver support, individualized patient centered care, multidisciplinary care provision, and quality improvement. Primary outcomes were resource use, symptom burden, quality of life, satisfaction, caregiver distress, place of death, cost analysis, or described experiences. The majority of studies were of moderate or unclear quality. CONCLUSIONS: There is robust literature of varying quality, assessing different components of palliative care in the home interventions, and measuring different outcomes. To be meaningful to patients, these interventions need to be consistently evaluated with outcomes that matter to patients. Future research could focus on reaching a consensus for outcomes to evaluate palliative care in the home interventions.

Optimising the Diagnosis of Prostate Cancer in the Era of Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis Based on the Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS).

BACKGROUND: The current recommendation of using transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy (TRUSB) to diagnose prostate cancer misses clinically significant (CS) cancers. More sensitive biopsies (eg, template prostate mapping biopsy [TPMB]) are too resource intensive for routine use, and there is little evidence on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MPMRI). OBJECTIVE: To identify the most effective and cost-effective way of using these tests to detect CS prostate cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cost-effectiveness modelling of health outcomes and costs of men referred to secondary care with a suspicion of prostate cancer prior to any biopsy in the UK National Health Service using information from the diagnostic Prostate MR Imaging Study (PROMIS). INTERVENTION: Combinations of MPMRI, TRUSB, and TPMB, using different definitions and diagnostic cut-offs for CS cancer. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Strategies that detect the most CS cancers given testing costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) given long-term costs. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The use of MPMRI first and then up to two MRI-targeted TRUSBs detects more CS cancers per pound spent than a strategy using TRUSB first (sensitivity = 0.95 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.92-0.98] vs 0.91 [95% CI 0.86-0.94]) and is cost effective (ICER = £7,076 [€8350/QALY gained]). The limitations stem from the evidence base in the accuracy of MRI-targeted biopsy and the long-term outcomes of men with CS prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: An MPMRI-first strategy is effective and cost effective for the diagnosis of CS prostate cancer. These findings are sensitive to the test costs, sensitivity of MRI-targeted TRUSB, and long-term outcomes of men with cancer, which warrant more empirical research. This analysis can inform the development of clinical guidelines. PATIENT SUMMARY: We found that, under certain assumptions, the use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging first and then up to two transrectal ultrasound-guided biopsy is better than the current clinical standard and is good value for money.

Health effects of exposure to second- and third-hand marijuana smoke: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Recreational marijuana has been legalized in 11 jurisdictions; Canada will legalize marijuana by July 2018. With this changing landscape, there is a need to understand the public health risks associated with marijuana to support patient-care provider conversations, harm-reduction measures and evidence-informed policy. The objective of this work was to summarize the health effects of exposure to second- and third-hand marijuana smoke. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched 6 databases from inception to October 2017. Abstract and full-text review was conducted in duplicate. Studies were included if they were human, in vivo or in vitro studies with more than 1 case reported in English or French, and reported original, quantitative data. Three outcomes were extracted: 1) cannabinoids and cannabinoid metabolites in bodily fluids, 2) self-reported psychoactive effects and 3) eye irritation and discomfort. RESULTS: Of the 1701 abstracts identified, 60 proceeded to full-text review; the final data set contained 15 articles. All of the included studies were of good to poor quality as assessed with the Downs and Black checklist. There is evidence of a direct relation between the tetrahydrocannabinol content of marijuana and effects on those passively exposed. This relation is mediated by several environmental factors including the amount of smoke, ventilation, air volume, number of marijuana cigarettes lit and number of smokers present. No evidence was identified assessing exposure to third-hand marijuana smoke or the health effects of long-term exposure. INTERPRETATION: Exposure to second-hand marijuana smoke leads to cannabinoid metabolites in bodily fluids, and people experience psychoactive effects after such exposure. Alignment of tobacco and marijuana smoking bylaws may result in the most effective public policies. More research is required to understand the impact of exposure to third-hand smoke and the health effects of long-term exposure to second-hand smoke.

Marijuana Use and Perceptions of Risk and Harm: A Survey among Canadians in 2016.

OBJECTIVES: To describe marijuana use by Canadians and their perceptions of risk and harm. DESIGN: A cross-sectional, structured, online and telephone survey. PARTICIPANTS: A nationally representative sample of Canadians. METHODS: This survey used random probability sampling and targeted respondents based on age, sex, region and their expected response rate. RESULTS: Of the 20% of respondents reporting marijuana use in the past 12 months, they were more likely to be younger and male. The most common form of use was smoking, 79%. When asked about harmfulness, 42% and 41% responded that they considered marijuana more harmful than helpful to mental health and to physical health, respectively. When asked about driving under the influence, 71% responded that it was the same as alcohol. CONCLUSION: This research is important for health providers and policy makers seeking to maximize public health through clinical and legislative reform of non-medical use of marijuana.

Tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitors for ankylosing spondylitis and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors (anti-TNFs) are typically used when the inflammatory rheumatologic diseases ankylosing spondylitis (AS) and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-AxSpA) have not responded adequately to conventional therapy. Current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance recommends treatment with adalimumab, etanercept and golimumab in adults with active (severe) AS only if certain criteria are fulfilled but it does not recommend infliximab for AS. Anti-TNFs for patients with nr-AxSpA have not previously been appraised by NICE. OBJECTIVE: To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness within the NHS of adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab and infliximab, within their licensed indications, for the treatment of severe active AS or severe nr-AxSpA (but with objective signs of inflammation). DESIGN: Systematic review and economic model. DATA SOURCES: Fifteen databases were searched for relevant studies in July 2014. REVIEW METHODS: Clinical effectiveness data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were synthesised using Bayesian network meta-analysis methods. Results from other studies were summarised narratively. Only full economic evaluations that compared two or more options and considered both costs and consequences were included in the systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies. The differences in the approaches and assumptions used across the studies, and also those in the manufacturer's submissions, were examined in order to explain any discrepancies in the findings and to identify key areas of uncertainty. A de novo decision model was developed with a generalised framework for evidence synthesis that pooled change in disease activity (BASDAI and BASDAI 50) and simultaneously synthesised information on function (BASFI) to determine the long-term quality-adjusted life-year and cost burden of the disease in the economic model. The decision model was developed in accordance with the NICE reference case. The model has a lifetime horizon (60 years) and considers costs from the perspective of the NHS and personal social services. Health effects were expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In total, 28 eligible RCTs were identified and 26 were placebo controlled (mostly up to 12 weeks); 17 extended into open-label active treatment-only phases. Most RCTs were judged to have a low risk of bias overall. In both AS and nr-AxSpA populations, anti-TNFs produced clinically important benefits to patients in terms of improving function and reducing disease activity; for AS, the relative risks for ASAS 40 ranged from 2.53 to 3.42. The efficacy estimates were consistently slightly smaller for nr-AxSpA than for AS. Statistical (and clinical) heterogeneity was more apparent in the nr-AxSpA analyses than in the AS analyses; both the reliability of the nr-AxSpA meta-analysis results and their true relevance to patients seen in clinical practice are questionable. In AS, anti-TNFs are approximately equally effective. Effectiveness appears to be maintained over time, with around 50% of patients still responding at 2 years. Evidence for an effect of anti-TNFs delaying disease progression was limited; results from ongoing long-term studies should help to clarify this issue. Sequential treatment with anti-TNFs can be worthwhile but the drug survival response rates and benefits are reduced with second and third anti-TNFs. The de novo model, which addressed many of the issues of earlier evaluations, generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from £19,240 to £66,529 depending on anti-TNF and modelling assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: In both AS and nr-AxSpA populations anti-TNFs are clinically effective, although more so in AS than in nr-AxSpA. Anti-TNFs may be an effective use of NHS resources depending on which assumptions are considered appropriate. FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS: Randomised trials are needed to identify the nr-AxSpA population who will benefit the most from anti-TNFs. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014010182. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The Clinical and Cost Effectiveness of Aflibercept in Combination with Irinotecan and Fluorouracil-Based Therapy (FOLFIRI) for the Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Which has Progressed Following Prior Oxaliplatin-Based Chemotherapy: a Critique of the Evidence.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of aflibercept (Sanofi) to submit clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence for aflibercept in combination with irinotecan and fluorouracil-based therapy [irinotecan/5-fluorouracil/folinic acid (FOLFIRI)] for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer which has progressed following prior oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy, as part of the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal process. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and Centre for Health Economics at the University of York were commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This article provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and the resulting NICE guidance TA307 issued in March 2014. The ERG critically reviewed the evidence presented in the manufacturer's submission and identified areas requiring clarification, for which the manufacturer provided additional evidence. The clinical effectiveness data were derived from one good-quality double-blind randomised controlled trial (RCT), the VELOUR trial, which compared aflibercept plus FOLFIRI with placebo plus FOLFIRI. This RCT found a small but statistically significant increase in overall survival (OS); the difference in median OS was 1.44 months (13.5 months in the aflibercept group and 12.06 months in the placebo group). There was also a statistically significant increase in progression-free survival (PFS) with aflibercept; the difference in median PFS was 2.23 months (6.9 months in the aflibercept group and 4.67 months in the placebo group). However, grade 3-4 adverse events were more frequent in the aflibercept group than the placebo group: 83.5% compared with 62.5%. Treatment-emergent adverse events led to permanent discontinuation of treatment in 26.8% of patients in the aflibercept group and 12.1% of patients in the placebo group. The manufacturer's submission included an estimation of mean OS benefit based on extrapolation of the data, which was considerably longer than the median OS benefit reported (4.7 vs. 1.44 months). The ERG considered this to be an over estimate. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the overall population was reported by the manufacturer to be £36,294 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). After correcting the model programming and updating the model to include the ERG's preferred parameter estimates, the ICER from the ERG's alternative base case was £54,368 per QALY. The extrapolation of the OS curves was the key cost-effectiveness driver and a major source of uncertainty in the model. Additional scenarios related to the extrapolation of OS undertaken by the ERG resulted in ICERs between £62,894 and £92,089 per QALY. After consideration of the manufacturer's submission and the ERG's critique, and submissions from other stakeholders, the NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that aflibercept in combination with irinotecan and fluorouracil-based therapy could not be considered a cost effective use of National Health Service resources for treating metastatic colorectal cancer that is resistant to or has progressed after an oxaliplatin-containing regimen. Aflibercept in combination with irinotecan and fluorouracil-based therapy is not recommended for the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer that is resistant to or has progressed after an oxaliplatin-containing regimen in NICE guidance TA307.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of preoperative transfusion in patients with sickle cell disease using evidence from the TAPS trial.

The study's objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of preoperative transfusion compared with no preoperative transfusion in patients with sickle cell disease undergoing low- or medium-risk surgery. Seventy patients with sickle cell disease (HbSS/Sß(0) thal genotypes) undergoing elective surgery participated in a multicentre randomised trial, Transfusion Alternatives Preoperatively in Sickle Cell Disease (TAPS). Here, a cost-effectiveness analysis based on evidence from that trial is presented. A decision-analytic model is used to incorporate long-term consequences of transfusions and acute chest syndrome. Costs and health benefits, expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), are reported from the 'within-trial' analysis and for the decision-analytic model. The probability of cost-effectiveness for each form of management is calculated taking into account the small sample size and other sources of uncertainty. In the range of scenarios considered in the analysis, preoperative transfusion was more effective, with the mean improvement in QALYs ranging from 0.018 to 0.206 per patient, and also less costly in all but one scenario, with the mean cost difference ranging from -£813 to £26. All scenarios suggested preoperative transfusion had a probability of cost-effectiveness >0.79 at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000 per QALY.

Trastuzumab for the treatment of HER2-positive metastatic gastric cancer : a NICE single technology appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of trastuzumab, Roche Pharmaceuticals, to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug for the treatment of advanced gastric cancer (aGC), as part of the Institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) and the Centre for Health Economics (CHE) Technology Appraisal Group at the University of York was commissioned to act as the evidence review group (ERG). This article provides a description of the company submission, the ERG report and NICE's subsequent decisions. In the initial appraisal by NICE, trastuzumab was rejected for use in the licensed population. Given this result, the manufacturer submitted additional evidence. In the final appraisal decision, trastuzumab was approved, in accordance with supplementary guidance issued by NICE on appraising life-extending, end-of-life treatments, for patients whose human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status was defined by an immunohistochemistry 3 positive (IHC3+) result. This appraisal highlights the need to fully assess the impact of different approaches to diagnostic testing on the cost effectiveness of targeted treatments. In this appraisal, it was found that the diagnostic strategy influenced the effectiveness and cost of trastuzumab. In the future, different diagnostic strategies should be compared in the incremental cost-effectiveness analysis.

The Transfusion Alternatives Preoperatively in Sickle Cell Disease (TAPS) study: a randomised, controlled, multicentre clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: No consensus exists on whether preoperative blood transfusions are beneficial in patients with sickle-cell disease. We assessed whether perioperative complication rates would be altered by preoperative transfusion. METHODS: We did a multicentre, randomised trial. Eligible patients were aged at least 1 year, had haemoglobin SS or Sß(0)thalassaemia sickle-cell-disease subtypes, and were scheduled for low-risk or medium-risk operations. Patients were randomly assigned no transfusion or transfusion no more than 10 days before surgery. The primary outcome was the proportion of clinically important complications between randomisation and 30 days after surgery. Analysis was by intention to treat. FINDINGS: 67 (96%) of 70 enrolled patients-33 no preoperative transfusion and 34 preoperative transfusion-were assessed. 65 (97%) of 67 patients had the haemoglobin SS subtype and 54 (81%) were scheduled to undergo medium-risk surgery. 13 (39%) of 33 patients in the no-preoperative-transfusion group had clinically important complications, compared with five (15%) in the preoperative-transfusion group (p=0.023). Of these, 10 (30%) and one (3%), respectively, had serious adverse events. The unadjusted odds ratio of clinically important complications was 3.8 (95% CI 1.2-12.2, p=0.027). 10 (91%) of 11 serious adverse events were acute chest syndrome (nine in the no-preoperative-transfusion group and one in the preoperative-transfusion group). Duration of hospital stay and readmission rates did not differ between study groups. INTERPRETATION: Preoperative transfusion was associated with decreased perioperative complications in patients with sickle-cell disease in this trial. This approach could, therefore, be beneficial for patients with the haemoglobin SS subtype who are scheduled to undergo low-risk and medium-risk surgeries. FUNDING: NHS Blood and Transplant.

Capturing all of the costs in NICE appraisals: the impact of inflammatory rheumatic diseases on productivity.

Inflammatory rheumatic diseases are common. It is estimated that ∼2.1% of the population has an inflammatory rheumatic disease (Andrianakos A, Trontzas P, Christoyannis F et al. Prevalence of rheumatic diseases in Greece: a cross-sectional population based epidemiological study. The ESORDIG Study. J Rheumatol 2003;30:1589-601). For diseases such as RA, PsA and AS, onset is most frequent between the ages of 30 and 50 years. The impact of inflammatory rheumatic diseases on physical functioning can be significant. Patients can suffer from swollen joints that cause pain and disability. This can reduce sufferers' ability to lead fully productive lives. This has major financial consequences for sufferers and their families and there is an economic impact on society. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) technology appraisal process has typically ignored any improvements in productivity that may result from treatment. There have been calls to extend the perspective of economic evaluations to include productivity costs as one aspect of wider social effects. However, there are a number of issues that must be resolved before productivity costs can become a routine input into the calculation of cost-effectiveness of treatments. First, there is limited agreement regarding the practical details and appropriate methods for their inclusion in economic evaluation. Second, there are issues that must be addressed regarding society's preference for equity. This issue arises when considering individual's economic productivity, that is to say, how we weigh individuals who are more productive (e.g. those in employment) against those who are less so (e.g. the unemployed). Finally, it is important to consider cross-budgetary effects, since productivity has cost and benefit implications outside of health.