Identifying long-term survivors and those at higher or lower risk of relapse among patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia using a high-dimensional mixture cure model.

Patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) may harbor prognostically relevant gene mutations and thus be categorized into one of the three 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) genetic-risk groups. Nevertheless, there remains heterogeneity with respect to relapse-free survival (RFS) within these genetic-risk groups. Our training set included 306 adults on Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology studies with de novo CN-AML aged < 60 years who achieved a complete remission and for whom centrally reviewed cytogenetics, RNA-sequencing, and gene mutation data from diagnostic samples were available (Alliance trial A152010). To overcome deficiencies of the Cox proportional hazards model when long-term survivors are present, we developed a penalized semi-parametric mixture cure model (MCM) to predict RFS where RNA-sequencing data comprised the predictor space. To validate model performance, we employed an independent test set from the German Acute Myeloid Leukemia Cooperative Group (AMLCG) consisting of 40 de novo CN-AML patients aged < 60 years who achieved a complete remission and had RNA-sequencing of their pre-treatment sample. For the training set, there was a significant non-zero cure fraction (p = 0.019) with 28.5% of patients estimated to be cured. Our MCM included 112 genes associated with cure, or long-term RFS, and 87 genes associated with latency, or shorter-term time-to-relapse. The area under the curve and C-statistic were respectively, 0.947 and 0.783 for our training set and 0.837 and 0.718 for our test set. We identified a novel, prognostically relevant molecular signature in CN-AML, which allows identification of patient subgroups independent of 2022 ELN genetic-risk groups.Trial registration Data from companion studies CALGB 8461, 9665 and 20202 (trials registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as, respectively, NCT00048958, NCT00899223, and NCT00900224) were obtained from Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology under data sharing study A152010. Data from the AMLCG 2008 trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01382147.

Prognostic impact of CEBPA mutational subgroups in adult AML.

Despite recent refinements in the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of CEBPA mutations in AML, several questions remain open, i.e. implications of different types of basic region leucin zipper (bZIP) mutations, the role of co-mutations and the allelic state. Using pooled primary data analysis on 1010 CEBPA-mutant adult AML patients, a comparison was performed taking into account the type of mutation (bZIP: either typical in-frame insertion/deletion (InDel) mutations (bZIPInDel), frameshift InDel or nonsense mutations inducing translational stop (bZIPSTOP) or single base-pair missense alterations (bZIPms), and transcription activation domain (TAD) mutations) and the allelic state (single (smCEBPA) vs. double mutant (dmCEBPA)). Only bZIPInDel patients had significantly higher rates of complete remission and longer relapse free and overall survival (OS) compared with all other CEBPA-mutant subgroups. Moreover, co-mutations in bZIPInDel patients (e.g. GATA2, FLT3, WT1 as well as ELN2022 adverse risk aberrations) had no independent impact on OS, whereas in non-bZIPInDel patients, grouping according to ELN2022 recommendations added significant prognostic information. In conclusion, these results demonstrate bZIPInDel mutations to be the major independent determinant of outcome in CEBPA-mutant AML, thereby refining current classifications according to WHO (including all dmCEBPA and smCEBPA bZIP) as well as ELN2022 and ICC recommendations (including CEBPA bZIPms).