Travel vaccines are strongly associated to reduced mortality in prostate cancer patients - a real effect or residual confounding?

Repurposing of existing drugs and vaccines for diseases that they were not originally intended for is a promising research field. Recently there has been evidence that oral cholera vaccine might be used in the treatment of inflammatory disease and some common cancers. Specifically, Ji et al showed that the administration of cholera vaccine after a prostate cancer diagnosis reduced prostate cancer specific mortality rates by almost 50%. In a cohort of men from Stockholm, Sweden, with more detailed cancer data and a higher coverage of exposure to vaccine, we replicated these findings using a marginal structural Cox model. We showed that administration of cholera vaccine after prostate cancer diagnosis is associated with a significant reduction in mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.31-0.69, p-value 0.0001) even after adjusting for all known confounders. However, the same effect (or even stronger) could be seen for several other traveling vaccines and malaria prophylaxis. Therefore, we conclude that this effect is most likely due to a healthy traveler bias and is an example of residual confounding.

Evaluation of Heterologous Effects of Travel Vaccines in Colorectal Cancer: A Database Study and a Cautionary Tale.

Background and Aims: Recently, cholera vaccine use was shown to be associated with a reduced risk of death in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence on heterologous effects of travel vaccines is limited. The aim of this study was to study heterologous effects of travel vaccines in patients with CRC. Methods: We performed a retrospective database study on a cohort of CRC patients in Sweden and their postdiagnostic use of travel medications between July 2005 and December 2017. We obtained data from national registries on number of CRC diagnosis, death from CRC or other causes, age at diagnosis, and postdiagnostic use of travel vaccines and malaria prophylaxis. The Cox regression model was used to calculate incidence rate and incidence rate ratios of CRC-related and all-cause mortality by postdiagnostic travel medication status. Results: Two hundred ninety-five patients exposed to travel vaccines and malaria prophylaxis and 73,466 patients not exposed to travel medications were identified. CRC-related mortality was lowered in the exposed patients compared to the unexposed patients, irrespective of the travel medications used. The incidence rate ratios for CRC-related mortality and overall mortality were comparable. Conclusion: We postulated that patients in better health were likely to travel more frequently than patients with poor health, leading to a healthy user bias. The results suggested the same, as similar reduced mortality risks were found for all the investigated travel medications, lowering the biological plausibility of truly protective effect from post-therapeutic use of any of the travel medication studied. We advocate the use of multiple negative exposure controls and to exercise caution while drawing conclusions from travel vaccine research.