Specifications of the ACMG/AMP variant curation guidelines for the analysis of germline ATM sequence variants.

The ClinGen Hereditary Breast, Ovarian and Pancreatic Cancer (HBOP) Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) is composed of internationally recognized experts in clinical genetics, molecular biology and variant interpretation. This VCEP made specifications for ACMG/AMP guidelines for the ataxia telangiectasia mutated (ATM) gene according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved ClinGen protocol. These gene-specific rules for ATM were modified from the American College of Medical Genetics and Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines and were tested against 33 ATM variants of various types and classifications in a pilot curation phase. The pilot revealed a majority agreement between the HBOP VCEP classifications and the ClinVar-deposited classifications. Six pilot variants had conflicting interpretations in ClinVar and reevaluation with the VCEP's ATM-specific rules resulted in four that were classified as benign, one as likely pathogenic and one as a variant of uncertain significance (VUS) by the VCEP, improving the certainty of interpretations in the public domain. Overall, 28 the 33 pilot variants were not VUS leading to an 85% classification rate. The ClinGen-approved, modified rules demonstrated value for improved interpretation of variants in ATM.

TP53-associated early breast cancer: new observations from a large cohort.

BACKGROUND: A large well-annotated recent international cohort of Li-Fraumeni (LFS) patients with early-stage breast cancer (BC) was examined for shared features. METHODS: This multicentre cohort study included females with a germline TP53 pathogenic or likely pathogenic variant and nonmetastatic BC diagnosed between 2002-2022. Clinical and genetic data were obtained from institutional registries and clinical charts. Descriptive statistics were utilized to summarize proportions and differences were assessed by Chi square or Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Metachronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk, radiation-induced sarcoma risk, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier methodology. RESULTS: Among 227 females who met study criteria, the median age of first BC diagnosis was 37 years (range 21-71), 11.9% presented with bilateral synchronous BC and 18.1% had ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) only. In total, 166 (73.1%) underwent mastectomies including 67 bilateral mastectomies as first BC surgery. Among those with retained breast tissue, CBC rate was 25.3% at 5-years. Among 186 invasive tumors, 72.1% were stages I-II, 48.9% node-negative, and the most common subtypes were HR+/HER2- (40.9%) and HR+/HER2 + (34.4%). At a median follow-up of 69.9 months (IQR 32.6-125.9), invasive HR+/HER2- disease had the highest recurrence risk among the subtypes (5-year RFS 61.1%, p = .0012). Among those who received radiation therapy (n = 79), the 5-year radiation-induced sarcoma rate was 4.8%. CONCLUSION: We observed high rates of DCIS, HR+ and HER2+ breast cancers, with a worse outcome in the HR+/HER2- luminal tumors despite appropriate treatment. Confirmation of these findings in further studies could have implications for BC care in LFS.

Cancer Risks Associated With TP53 Pathogenic Variants: Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Extended Pedigrees for Diagnosis of First Cancers Beyond the Li-Fraumeni Syndrome Spectrum.

PURPOSE: Establishing accurate age-related penetrance figures for the broad range of cancer types that occur in individuals harboring a pathogenic germline variant in the TP53 gene is essential to determine the most effective clinical management strategies. These figures also permit optimal use of cosegregation data for classification of TP53 variants of unknown significance. Penetrance estimation can easily be affected by bias from ascertainment criteria, an issue not commonly addressed by previous studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a maximum likelihood penetrance estimation using full pedigree data from a multicenter study of 146 TP53-positive families, incorporating adjustment for the effect of ascertainment and population-specific background cancer risks. The analysis included pedigrees from Australia, Spain, and United States, with phenotypic information for 4,028 individuals. RESULTS: Core Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) cancers (breast cancer, adrenocortical carcinoma, brain cancer, osteosarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma) had the highest hazard ratios of all cancers analyzed in this study. The analysis also detected a significantly increased lifetime risk for a range of cancers not previously formally associated with TP53 pathogenic variant status, including colorectal, gastric, lung, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. The cumulative risk of any cancer type by age 50 years was 92.4% (95% CI, 82.2 to 98.3) for females and 59.7% (95% CI, 39.9 to 81.3) for males. Females had a 63.3% (95% CI, 35.6 to 90.1) cumulative risk of developing breast cancer by age 50 years. CONCLUSION: The results from maximum likelihood analysis confirm the known high lifetime risk for the core LFS-associated cancer types providing new risk estimates and indicate significantly increased lifetime risks for several additional cancer types. Accurate cancer risk estimates will help refine clinical recommendations for TP53 pathogenic variant carriers and improve TP53 variant classification.

Challenges and approaches to calibrating patient phenotype as evidence for cancer gene variant classification under ACMG/AMP guidelines.

Since first publication of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Medical Pathology (ACMG/AMP) variant classification guidelines, additional recommendations for application of certain criteria have been released (https://clinicalgenome.org/docs/), to improve their application in the diagnostic setting. However, none have addressed use of the PS4 and PP4 criteria, capturing patient presentation as evidence towards pathogenicity. Application of PS4 can be done through traditional case-control studies, or "proband counting" within or across clinical testing cohorts. Review of the existing PS4 and PP4 specifications for Hereditary Cancer Gene Variant Curation Expert Panels revealed substantial differences in the approach to defining specifications. Using BRCA1, BRCA2 and TP53 as exemplar genes, we calibrated different methods proposed for applying the "PS4 proband counting" criterion. For each approach, we considered limitations, non-independence with other ACMG/AMP criteria, broader applicability, and variability in results for different datasets. Our findings highlight inherent overlap of proband-counting methods with ACMG/AMP frequency codes, and the importance of calibration to derive dataset-specific code weights that can account for potential between-dataset differences in ascertainment and other factors. Our work emphasizes the advantages and generalizability of logistic regression analysis over simple proband-counting approaches to empirically determine the relative predictive capacity and weight of various personal clinical features in the context of multigene panel testing, for improved variant interpretation. We also provide a general protocol, including instructions for data formatting and a web-server for analysis of personal history parameters, to facilitate dataset-specific calibration analyses required to use such data for germline variant classification.

Male with an apparently normal phenotype carrying a BRCA1 exon 20 duplication in trans to a BRCA1 frameshift variant.

BACKGROUND: Reports of dual carriers of pathogenic BRCA1 variants in trans are extremely rare, and so far, most individuals have been associated with a Fanconi Anemia-like phenotype. METHODS: We identified two families with a BRCA1 in-frame exon 20 duplication (Ex20dup). In one male individual, the variant was in trans with the BRCA1 frameshift variant c.2475delC p.(Asp825Glufs*21). We performed splicing analysis and used a transcription activation domain (TAD) assay to assess the functional impact of Ex20dup. We collected pedigrees and mapped the breakpoints of the duplication by long- and short-read genome sequencing. In addition, we performed a mitomycin C (MMC) assay from the dual carrier using cultured lymphoblastoid cells. RESULTS: Genome sequencing and RNA analysis revealed the BRCA1 exon 20 duplication to be in tandem. The duplication was expressed without skipping any one of the two exon 20 copies, resulting in a lack of wild-type transcripts from this allele. TAD assay indicated that the Ex20dup variant has a functional level similar to the well-known moderate penetrant pathogenic BRCA1 variant c.5096G > A p.(Arg1699Gln). MMC assay of the dual carrier indicated a slightly impaired chromosomal repair ability. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first reported case where two BRCA1 variants with demonstrated functional impact are identified in trans in a male patient with an apparently normal clinical phenotype and no BRCA1-associated cancer. The results pinpoint a minimum necessary BRCA1 protein activity to avoid a Fanconi Anemia-like phenotype in compound heterozygous status and yet still predispose carriers to hormone-related cancers. These findings urge caution when counseling families regarding potential Fanconi Anemia risk. Furthermore, prudence should be taken when classifying individual variants as benign based on co-occurrence in trans with well-established pathogenic variants.

Clinical implications of VUS reclassification in a single-centre series from application of ACMG/AMP classification rules specified for BRCA1/2.

BACKGROUND: BRCA1/2 testing is crucial to guide clinical decisions in patients with hereditary breast/ovarian cancer, but detection of variants of uncertain significance (VUSs) prevents proper management of carriers. The ENIGMA (Evidence-based Network for the Interpretation of Germline Mutant Alleles) BRCA1/2 Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) has recently developed BRCA1/2 variant classification guidelines consistent with ClinGen processes, specified against the ACMG/AMP (American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular-Pathology) classification framework. METHODS: The ClinGen-approved BRCA1/2-specified ACMG/AMP classification guidelines were applied to BRCA1/2 VUSs identified from 2011 to 2022 in a series of patients, retrieving information from the VCEP documentation, public databases, literature and ENIGMA unpublished data. Then, we critically re-evaluated carrier families based on new results and checked consistency of updated classification with main sources for clinical interpretation of BRCA1/2 variants. RESULTS: Among 166 VUSs detected in 231 index cases, 135 (81.3%) found in 197 index cases were classified by applying BRCA1/2-specified ACMG/AMP criteria: 128 (94.8%) as Benign/Likely Benign and 7 (5.2%) as Pathogenic/Likely Pathogenic. The average time from the first report as 'VUS' to classification using this approach was 49.4 months. Considering that 15 of these variants found in 64 families had already been internally reclassified prior to this work, this study provided 121 new reclassifications among the 151 (80.1%) remaining VUSs, relevant to 133/167 (79.6%) families. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrated the effectiveness of new BRCA1/2 ACMG/AMP classification guidelines for VUS classification within a clinical cohort, and their important clinical impact. Furthermore, they suggested a cadence of no more than 3 years for regular review of VUSs, which however requires time, expertise and resources.

The clinical utility and costs of whole-genome sequencing to detect cancer susceptibility variants-a multi-site prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Many families and individuals do not meet criteria for a known hereditary cancer syndrome but display unusual clusters of cancers. These families may carry pathogenic variants in cancer predisposition genes and be at higher risk for developing cancer. METHODS: This multi-centre prospective study recruited 195 cancer-affected participants suspected to have a hereditary cancer syndrome for whom previous clinical targeted genetic testing was either not informative or not available. To identify pathogenic disease-causing variants explaining participant presentation, germline whole-genome sequencing (WGS) and a comprehensive cancer virtual gene panel analysis were undertaken. RESULTS: Pathogenic variants consistent with the presenting cancer(s) were identified in 5.1% (10/195) of participants and pathogenic variants considered secondary findings with potential risk management implications were identified in another 9.7% (19/195) of participants. Health economic analysis estimated the marginal cost per case with an actionable variant was significantly lower for upfront WGS with virtual panel ($8744AUD) compared to standard testing followed by WGS ($24,894AUD). Financial analysis suggests that national adoption of diagnostic WGS testing would require a ninefold increase in government annual expenditure compared to conventional testing. CONCLUSIONS: These findings make a case for replacing conventional testing with WGS to deliver clinically important benefits for cancer patients and families. The uptake of such an approach will depend on the perspectives of different payers on affordability.

CHEK2 is not a Li-Fraumeni syndrome gene: time to update public resources.

The gene-disease relationship for CHEK2 remains listed as 'Li-Fraumeni syndrome 2' in public resources such as OMIM and MONDO, despite published evidence to the contrary, causing frustration among Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) clinical experts. Here, we compared personal cancer characteristics of 2095 CHEK2 and 248 TP53 pathogenic variant carriers undergoing multigene panel testing at Ambry Genetics against 15 135 individuals with no known pathogenic variant. Our results from a within-cohort logistic regression approach highlight obvious differences between clinical presentation of TP53 and CHEK2 pathogenic variant carriers, with no evidence of CHEK2 being associated with any of the TP53-related core LFS cancers. These findings emphasise the need to replace 'Li-Fraumeni syndrome 2' as the CHEK2-associated disease name, thereby limiting potential confusion.

Multi-trait genome-wide association study identifies a novel endometrial cancer risk locus that associates with testosterone levels.

To detect novel endometrial cancer risk variants, we leveraged information from endometrial cancer risk factors in a multi-trait GWAS analysis. We first assessed causal relationships between established and suspected endometrial cancer risk factors, and endometrial cancer using Mendelian randomization. Following multivariable analysis, five independent risk factors (waist circumference, testosterone levels, sex hormone binding globulin levels, age at menarche, and age at natural menopause) were included in a multi-trait Bayesian GWAS analysis. We identified three potentially novel loci that associate with endometrial cancer risk, one of which (7q22.1) replicated in an independent endometrial cancer GWAS dataset and was genome-wide significant in a meta-analysis. This locus may affect endometrial cancer risk through altered testosterone levels. Consistent with this, we observed colocalization between the signals for endometrial cancer risk and expression of CYP3A7, a gene involved in testosterone metabolism. Thus, our findings suggest opportunities for hormone therapy to prevent or treat endometrial cancer.

Exploring the impact of the reclassification of a hereditary cancer syndrome gene variant: emerging themes from a qualitative study.

The complexity of genetic variant interpretation means that a proportion of individuals who undergo genetic testing for a hereditary cancer syndrome will have their test result reclassified over time. Such a reclassification may involve a clinically significant upgrade or downgrade in pathogenicity, which may have significant implications for medical management. To date, few studies have examined the psychosocial impact of a reclassification in a hereditary cancer syndrome context. To address this gap, semi-structured telephone interviews were performed with eighteen individuals who had a BRCA1, BRCA2 or Lynch syndrome-related (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2) gene variant reclassified. The interviews were analysed utilising an inductive, qualitative approach and emergent themes were identified by thematic analysis. Variable levels of recall amongst participants were found. Common motivations for initial testing included a significant personal and/or family history of cancer and a desire to "find an answer". No individual whose uncertain result was upgraded reported negative psychosocial outcomes; most reported adapting to their reclassified result and appraised their genetic testing experience positively. However, individuals whose likely pathogenic/pathogenic results were downgraded reported feelings of anger, shock and sadness post reclassification, highlighting that additional psychosocial support may be required for some. Genetic counselling issues and recommendations for clinical practice are outlined.

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer.

BACKGROUND: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. METHODS: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07-1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06-1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03-1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02-1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99-1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99-1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95-1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98-1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. INTERPRETATION: The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease. FUNDING: Cancer Resesrch UK (C52724/A20138, C18281/A19169). UK Medical Research Council (MR/P014054/1). National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411). UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4). National Cancer Institute (R00 CA215360). National Institutes of Health (U01 CA164973, R01 CA60987, R01 CA72520, U01 CA74806, R01 CA55874, U01 CA164973 and U01 CA164973).

Australian Genomics: Outcomes of a 5-year national program to accelerate the integration of genomics in healthcare.

Australian Genomics is a national collaborative partnership of more than 100 organizations piloting a whole-of-system approach to integrating genomics into healthcare, based on federation principles. In the first five years of operation, Australian Genomics has evaluated the outcomes of genomic testing in more than 5,200 individuals across 19 rare disease and cancer flagship studies. Comprehensive analyses of the health economic, policy, ethical, legal, implementation and workforce implications of incorporating genomics in the Australian context have informed evidence-based change in policy and practice, resulting in national government funding and equity of access for a range of genomic tests. Simultaneously, Australian Genomics has built national skills, infrastructure, policy, and data resources to enable effective data sharing to drive discovery research and support improvements in clinical genomic delivery.

Splicing annotation of endometrial cancer GWAS risk loci reveals potentially causal variants and supports a role for NF1 and SKAP1 as susceptibility genes.

Alternative splicing contributes to cancer development. Indeed, splicing analysis of cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS) risk variants has revealed likely causal variants. To systematically assess GWAS variants for splicing effects, we developed a prioritization workflow using a combination of splicing prediction tools, alternative transcript isoforms, and splicing quantitative trait locus (sQTL) annotations. Application of this workflow to candidate causal variants from 16 endometrial cancer GWAS risk loci highlighted single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were predicted to upregulate alternative transcripts. For two variants, sQTL data supported the predicted impact on splicing. At the 17q11.2 locus, the protective allele for rs7502834 was associated with increased splicing of an exon in a NF1 alternative transcript encoding a truncated protein in adipose tissue and is consistent with an endometrial cancer transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) finding in adipose tissue. Notably, NF1 haploinsufficiency is protective for obesity, a well-established risk factor for endometrial cancer. At the 17q21.32 locus, the rs2278868 risk allele was predicted to upregulate a SKAP1 transcript that is subject to nonsense-mediated decay, concordant with a corresponding sQTL in lymphocytes. This is consistent with a TWAS finding that indicates decreased SKAP1 expression in blood increases endometrial cancer risk. As SKAP1 is involved in T cell immune responses, decreased SKAP1 expression may impact endometrial tumor immunosurveillance. In summary, our analysis has identified potentially causal endometrial cancer GWAS risk variants with plausible biological mechanisms and provides a splicing annotation workflow to aid interpretation of other GWAS datasets.

Genome-wide analyses characterize shared heritability among cancers and identify novel cancer susceptibility regions.

BACKGROUND: The shared inherited genetic contribution to risk of different cancers is not fully known. In this study, we leverage results from 12 cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to quantify pairwise genome-wide genetic correlations across cancers and identify novel cancer susceptibility loci. METHODS: We collected GWAS summary statistics for 12 solid cancers based on 376 759 participants with cancer and 532 864 participants without cancer of European ancestry. The included cancer types were breast, colorectal, endometrial, esophageal, glioma, head and neck, lung, melanoma, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, and renal cancers. We conducted cross-cancer GWAS and transcriptome-wide association studies to discover novel cancer susceptibility loci. Finally, we assessed the extent of variant-specific pleiotropy among cancers at known and newly identified cancer susceptibility loci. RESULTS: We observed widespread but modest genome-wide genetic correlations across cancers. In cross-cancer GWAS and transcriptome-wide association studies, we identified 15 novel cancer susceptibility loci. Additionally, we identified multiple variants at 77 distinct loci with strong evidence of being associated with at least 2 cancer types by testing for pleiotropy at known cancer susceptibility loci. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these results suggest that some genetic risk variants are shared among cancers, though much of cancer heritability is cancer-specific and thus tissue-specific. The increase in statistical power associated with larger sample sizes in cross-disease analysis allows for the identification of novel susceptibility regions. Future studies incorporating data on multiple cancer types are likely to identify additional regions associated with the risk of multiple cancer types.

Helicobacter pylori, Homologous-Recombination Genes, and Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Helicobacter pylori infection is a well-known risk factor for gastric cancer. However, the contribution of germline pathogenic variants in cancer-predisposing genes and their effect, when combined with H. pylori infection, on the risk of gastric cancer has not been widely evaluated. METHODS: We evaluated the association between germline pathogenic variants in 27 cancer-predisposing genes and the risk of gastric cancer in a sample of 10,426 patients with gastric cancer and 38,153 controls from BioBank Japan. We also assessed the combined effect of pathogenic variants and H. pylori infection status on the risk of gastric cancer and calculated the cumulative risk in 1433 patients with gastric cancer and 5997 controls from the Hospital-based Epidemiologic Research Program at Aichi Cancer Center (HERPACC). RESULTS: Germline pathogenic variants in nine genes (APC, ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CDH1, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PALB2) were associated with the risk of gastric cancer. We found an interaction between H. pylori infection and pathogenic variants in homologous-recombination genes with respect to the risk of gastric cancer in the sample from HERPACC (relative excess risk due to the interaction, 16.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.22 to 29.81; P = 0.02). At 85 years of age, persons with H. pylori infection and a pathogenic variant had a higher cumulative risk of gastric cancer than noncarriers infected with H. pylori (45.5% [95% CI, 20.7 to 62.6] vs. 14.4% [95% CI, 12.2 to 16.6]). CONCLUSIONS: H. pylori infection modified the risk of gastric cancer associated with germline pathogenic variants in homologous-recombination genes. (Funded by the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development and others.).

Optimising clinical care through CDH1-specific germline variant curation: improvement of clinical assertions and updated curation guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Germline pathogenic variants in CDH1 are associated with increased risk of diffuse gastric cancer and lobular breast cancer. Risk reduction strategies include consideration of prophylactic surgery, thereby making accurate interpretation of germline CDH1 variants critical for physicians deciding on these procedures. The Clinical Genome Resource (ClinGen) CDH1 Variant Curation Expert Panel (VCEP) developed specifications for CDH1 variant curation with a goal to resolve variants of uncertain significance (VUS) and with ClinVar conflicting interpretations and continues to update these specifications. METHODS: CDH1 variant classification specifications were modified based on updated genetic testing clinical criteria, new recommendations from ClinGen and expert knowledge from ongoing CDH1 variant curations. The CDH1 VCEP reviewed 273 variants using updated CDH1 specifications and incorporated published and unpublished data provided by diagnostic laboratories. RESULTS: Updated CDH1-specific interpretation guidelines include 11 major modifications since the initial specifications from 2018. Using the refined guidelines, 97% (36 of 37) of variants with ClinVar conflicting interpretations were resolved to benign, likely benign, likely pathogenic or pathogenic, and 35% (15 of 43) of VUS were resolved to benign or likely benign. Overall, 88% (239 of 273) of curated variants had non-VUS classifications. To date, variants classified as pathogenic are either nonsense, frameshift, splicing, or affecting the translation initiation codon, and the only missense variants classified as pathogenic or likely pathogenic have been shown to affect splicing. CONCLUSIONS: The development and evolution of CDH1-specific criteria by the expert panel resulted in decreased uncertain and conflicting interpretations of variants in this clinically actionable gene, which can ultimately lead to more effective clinical management recommendations.

Risk prediction models for endometrial cancer: development and validation in an international consortium.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer risk stratification may help target interventions, screening, or prophylactic hysterectomy to mitigate the rising burden of this cancer. However, existing prediction models have been developed in select cohorts and have not considered genetic factors. METHODS: We developed endometrial cancer risk prediction models using data on postmenopausal White women aged 45-85 years from 19 case-control studies in the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). Relative risk estimates for predictors were combined with age-specific endometrial cancer incidence rates and estimates for the underlying risk factor distribution. We externally validated the models in 3 cohorts: Nurses' Health Study (NHS), NHS II, and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the epidemiologic model ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62 to 0.67) to 0.69 (95% CI = 0.66 to 0.72). Improvements in discrimination from the addition of genetic factors were modest (no change in area under the receiver operating characteristic curves in NHS; PLCO = 0.64 to 0.66). The epidemiologic model was well calibrated in NHS II (overall expected-to-observed ratio [E/O] = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.98 to 1.22) and PLCO (overall E/O = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.13) but poorly calibrated in NHS (overall E/O = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: Using data from the largest, most heterogeneous study population to date (to our knowledge), prediction models based on epidemiologic factors alone successfully identified women at high risk of endometrial cancer. Genetic factors offered limited improvements in discrimination. Further work is needed to refine this tool for clinical or public health practice and expand these models to multiethnic populations.

Design and quality control of large-scale two-sample Mendelian randomization studies.

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) studies are susceptible to metadata errors (e.g. incorrect specification of the effect allele column) and other analytical issues that can introduce substantial bias into analyses. We developed a quality control (QC) pipeline for the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration (FAMRC) that can be used to identify and correct for such errors. Methods: We collated summary association statistics from fatty acid and cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and subjected the collated data to a comprehensive QC pipeline. We identified metadata errors through comparison of study-specific statistics to external reference data sets (the National Human Genome Research Institute-European Bioinformatics Institute GWAS catalogue and 1000 genome super populations) and other analytical issues through comparison of reported to expected genetic effect sizes. Comparisons were based on three sets of genetic variants: (i) GWAS hits for fatty acids, (ii) GWAS hits for cancer and (iii) a 1000 genomes reference set. Results: We collated summary data from 6 fatty acid and 54 cancer GWAS. Metadata errors and analytical issues with the potential to introduce substantial bias were identified in seven studies (11.6%). After resolving metadata errors and analytical issues, we created a data set of 219 842 genetic associations with 90 cancer types, generated in analyses of 566 665 cancer cases and 1 622 374 controls. Conclusions: In this large MR collaboration, 11.6% of included studies were affected by a substantial metadata error or analytical issue. By increasing the integrity of collated summary data prior to their analysis, our protocol can be used to increase the reliability of downstream MR analyses. Our pipeline is available to other researchers via the CheckSumStats package (https://github.com/MRCIEU/CheckSumStats).