Rare coding variants in CHRNB2 reduce the likelihood of smoking.

Human genetic studies of smoking behavior have been thus far largely limited to common variants. Studying rare coding variants has the potential to identify drug targets. We performed an exome-wide association study of smoking phenotypes in up to 749,459 individuals and discovered a protective association in CHRNB2, encoding the ß2 subunit of the α4ß2 nicotine acetylcholine receptor. Rare predicted loss-of-function and likely deleterious missense variants in CHRNB2 in aggregate were associated with a 35% decreased odds for smoking heavily (odds ratio (OR) = 0.65, confidence interval (CI) = 0.56-0.76, P = 1.9 × 10-8). An independent common variant association in the protective direction ( rs2072659 ; OR = 0.96; CI = 0.94-0.98; P = 5.3 × 10-6) was also evident, suggesting an allelic series. Our findings in humans align with decades-old experimental observations in mice that ß2 loss abolishes nicotine-mediated neuronal responses and attenuates nicotine self-administration. Our genetic discovery will inspire future drug designs targeting CHRNB2 in the brain for the treatment of nicotine addiction.

Population-scale analysis of common and rare genetic variation associated with hearing loss in adults.

To better understand the genetics of hearing loss, we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis with 125,749 cases and 469,497 controls across five cohorts. We identified 53/c loci affecting hearing loss risk, including common coding variants in COL9A3 and TMPRSS3. Through exome sequencing of 108,415 cases and 329,581 controls, we observed rare coding associations with 11 Mendelian hearing loss genes, including additive effects in known hearing loss genes GJB2 (Gly12fs; odds ratio [OR] = 1.21, P = 4.2 × 10-11) and SLC26A5 (gene burden; OR = 1.96, P = 2.8 × 10-17). We also identified hearing loss associations with rare coding variants in FSCN2 (OR = 1.14, P = 1.9 × 10-15) and KLHDC7B (OR = 2.14, P = 5.2 × 10-30). Our results suggest a shared etiology between Mendelian and common hearing loss in adults. This work illustrates the potential of large-scale exome sequencing to elucidate the genetic architecture of common disorders where both common and rare variation contribute to risk.

Exome sequencing and analysis of 454,787 UK Biobank participants.

A major goal in human genetics is to use natural variation to understand the phenotypic consequences of altering each protein-coding gene in the genome. Here we used exome sequencing1 to explore protein-altering variants and their consequences in 454,787 participants in the UK Biobank study2. We identified 12 million coding variants, including around 1 million loss-of-function and around 1.8 million deleterious missense variants. When these were tested for association with 3,994 health-related traits, we found 564 genes with trait associations at P ≤ 2.18 × 10-11. Rare variant associations were enriched in loci from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but most (91%) were independent of common variant signals. We discovered several risk-increasing associations with traits related to liver disease, eye disease and cancer, among others, as well as risk-lowering associations for hypertension (SLC9A3R2), diabetes (MAP3K15, FAM234A) and asthma (SLC27A3). Six genes were associated with brain imaging phenotypes, including two involved in neural development (GBE1, PLD1). Of the signals available and powered for replication in an independent cohort, 81% were confirmed; furthermore, association signals were generally consistent across individuals of European, Asian and African ancestry. We illustrate the ability of exome sequencing to identify gene-trait associations, elucidate gene function and pinpoint effector genes that underlie GWAS signals at scale.

Collagenous Colitis Is Associated With HLA Signature and Shares Genetic Risks With Other Immune-Mediated Diseases.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Collagenous colitis (CC) is an inflammatory bowel disorder with unknown etiopathogenesis involving HLA-related immune-mediated responses and environmental and genetic risk factors. We carried out an array-based genetic association study in a cohort of patients with CC and investigated the common genetic basis between CC and Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC), and celiac disease. METHODS: DNA from 804 CC formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples was genotyped with Illumina Immunochip. Matching genotype data on control samples and CD, UC, and celiac disease cases were provided by the respective consortia. A discovery association study followed by meta-analysis with an independent cohort, polygenic risk score calculation, and cross-phenotype analyses were performed. Enrichment of regulatory expression quantitative trait loci among the CC variants was assessed in hemopoietic and intestinal cells. RESULTS: Three HLA alleles (HLA-B∗08:01, HLA-DRB1∗03:01, and HLA-DQB1∗02:01), related to the ancestral haplotype 8.1, were significantly associated with increased CC risk. We also identified an independent protective effect of HLA-DRB1∗04:01 on CC risk. Polygenic risk score quantifying the risk across multiple susceptibility loci was strongly associated with CC risk. An enrichment of expression quantitative trait loci was detected among the CC-susceptibility variants in various cell types. The cross-phenotype analysis identified a complex pattern of polygenic pleiotropy between CC and other immune-mediated diseases. CONCLUSIONS: In this largest genetic study of CC to date with histologically confirmed diagnosis, we strongly implicated the HLA locus and proposed potential non-HLA mechanisms in disease pathogenesis. We also detected a shared genetic risk between CC, celiac disease, CD, and UC, which supports clinical observations of comorbidity.

Genome-wide association study implicates CHRNA2 in cannabis use disorder.

Cannabis is the most frequently used illicit psychoactive substance worldwide; around one in ten users become dependent. The risk for cannabis use disorder (CUD) has a strong genetic component, with twin heritability estimates ranging from 51 to 70%. Here we performed a genome-wide association study of CUD in 2,387 cases and 48,985 controls, followed by replication in 5,501 cases and 301,041 controls. We report a genome-wide significant risk locus for CUD (P = 9.31 × 10-12) that replicates in an independent population (Preplication = 3.27 × 10-3, Pmeta-analysis = 9.09 × 10-12). The index variant (rs56372821) is a strong expression quantitative trait locus for cholinergic receptor nicotinic α2 subunit (CHRNA2); analyses of the genetically regulated gene expression identified a significant association of CHRNA2 expression with CUD in brain tissue. At the polygenic level, analyses revealed a significant decrease in the risk of CUD with increased load of variants associated with cognitive performance. The results provide biological insights and inform on the genetic architecture of CUD.

Heritability estimates of individual psychological distress symptoms from genetic variation.

BACKGROUND: Psychological distress symptoms are associated with an increased risk of psychiatric disorders and medical illness. Although psychological distress is influenced by environmental factors, such as socioeconomic status, lifetime events, or interpersonal relationships, substantial interindividual variation also exists. However, heritability and genetic determinants of distress are poorly understood. METHODS: In the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study sample (n = 12,680), we estimated the heritability of individual psychological distress symptoms using the GCTA-REML method and carried out a genome-wide association study of individual psychological distress symptoms showing significant heritability. RESULTS: We found three psychological distress items showing significant heritability: subjective well-being (9%), fatigue and appetite (11%), and enjoying daily life (8%). Additionally, we found genome-wide significant associations of rs6735649 located between STEAP3 and C1QL2 on chromosome 2 with subjective well-being (P = 1.32 × 10-8, odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.25) and rs35543418 located between SYT16 and KCNH5 on chromosome 14 with enjoying daily life (P = 1.33 × 10-8, OR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.35-1.86). LIMITATIONS: The lack of replication in independent cohorts and longitudinal assessment of distress may limit generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that distress symptoms are partly heritable. Further analysis in larger cohorts investigating gene-environment interactions is required to identify genetic variants that explain the proportion of variation in distress.

A loop-counting method for covariate-corrected low-rank biclustering of gene-expression and genome-wide association study data.

A common goal in data-analysis is to sift through a large data-matrix and detect any significant submatrices (i.e., biclusters) that have a low numerical rank. We present a simple algorithm for tackling this biclustering problem. Our algorithm accumulates information about 2-by-2 submatrices (i.e., 'loops') within the data-matrix, and focuses on rows and columns of the data-matrix that participate in an abundance of low-rank loops. We demonstrate, through analysis and numerical-experiments, that this loop-counting method performs well in a variety of scenarios, outperforming simple spectral methods in many situations of interest. Another important feature of our method is that it can easily be modified to account for aspects of experimental design which commonly arise in practice. For example, our algorithm can be modified to correct for controls, categorical- and continuous-covariates, as well as sparsity within the data. We demonstrate these practical features with two examples; the first drawn from gene-expression analysis and the second drawn from a much larger genome-wide-association-study (GWAS).

Shared activity patterns arising at genetic susceptibility loci reveal underlying genomic and cellular architecture of human disease.

Genetic variants underlying complex traits, including disease susceptibility, are enriched within the transcriptional regulatory elements, promoters and enhancers. There is emerging evidence that regulatory elements associated with particular traits or diseases share similar patterns of transcriptional activity. Accordingly, shared transcriptional activity (coexpression) may help prioritise loci associated with a given trait, and help to identify underlying biological processes. Using cap analysis of gene expression (CAGE) profiles of promoter- and enhancer-derived RNAs across 1824 human samples, we have analysed coexpression of RNAs originating from trait-associated regulatory regions using a novel quantitative method (network density analysis; NDA). For most traits studied, phenotype-associated variants in regulatory regions were linked to tightly-coexpressed networks that are likely to share important functional characteristics. Coexpression provides a new signal, independent of phenotype association, to enable fine mapping of causative variants. The NDA coexpression approach identifies new genetic variants associated with specific traits, including an association between the regulation of the OCT1 cation transporter and genetic variants underlying circulating cholesterol levels. NDA strongly implicates particular cell types and tissues in disease pathogenesis. For example, distinct groupings of disease-associated regulatory regions implicate two distinct biological processes in the pathogenesis of ulcerative colitis; a further two separate processes are implicated in Crohn's disease. Thus, our functional analysis of genetic predisposition to disease defines new distinct disease endotypes. We predict that patients with a preponderance of susceptibility variants in each group are likely to respond differently to pharmacological therapy. Together, these findings enable a deeper biological understanding of the causal basis of complex traits.

Hyperuricemia, Acute and Chronic Kidney Disease, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease: Report of a Scientific Workshop Organized by the National Kidney Foundation.

Urate is a cause of gout, kidney stones, and acute kidney injury from tumor lysis syndrome, but its relationship to kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes remains controversial. A scientific workshop organized by the National Kidney Foundation was held in September 2016 to review current evidence. Cell culture studies and animal models suggest that elevated serum urate concentrations can contribute to kidney disease, hypertension, and metabolic syndrome. Epidemiologic evidence also supports elevated serum urate concentrations as a risk factor for the development of kidney disease, hypertension, and diabetes, but differences in methodologies and inpacts on serum urate concentrations by even subtle changes in kidney function render conclusions uncertain. Mendelian randomization studies generally do not support a causal role of serum urate in kidney disease, hypertension, or diabetes, although interpretation is complicated by nonhomogeneous populations, a failure to consider environmental interactions, and a lack of understanding of how the genetic polymorphisms affect biological mechanisms related to urate. Although several small clinical trials suggest benefits of urate-lowering therapies on kidney function, blood pressure, and insulin resistance, others have been negative, with many trials having design limitations and insufficient power. Thus, whether uric acid has a causal role in kidney and cardiovascular diseases requires further study.

Brief Report: The Role of Rare Protein-Coding Variants in Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Treatment Response in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: In many rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, disease is controlled with anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) biologic therapies. However, in a significant number of patients, the disease fails to respond to anti-TNF therapy. We undertook the present study to examine the hypothesis that rare and low-frequency genetic variants might influence response to anti-TNF treatment. METHODS: We sequenced the coding region of 750 genes in 1,094 RA patients of European ancestry who were treated with anti-TNF. After quality control, 690 genes were included in the analysis. We applied single-variant association and gene-based association tests to identify variants associated with anti-TNF treatment response. In addition, given the key mechanistic role of TNF, we performed gene set analyses of 27 TNF pathway genes. RESULTS: We identified 14,420 functional variants, of which 6,934 were predicted as nonsynonymous 2,136 of which were further predicted to be "damaging." Despite the fact that the study was well powered, no single variant or gene showed study-wide significant association with change in the outcome measures disease activity or European League Against Rheumatism response. Intriguingly, we observed 3 genes, of 27 with nominal signals of association (P < 0.05), that were involved in the TNF signaling pathway. However, when we performed a rigorous gene set enrichment analysis based on association P value ranking, we observed no evidence of enrichment of association at genes involved in the TNF pathway (Penrichment = 0.15, based on phenotype permutations). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that rare and low-frequency protein-coding variants in TNF signaling pathway genes or other genes do not contribute substantially to anti-TNF treatment response in patients with RA.

Crowdsourced assessment of common genetic contribution to predicting anti-TNF treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) affects millions world-wide. While anti-TNF treatment is widely used to reduce disease progression, treatment fails in ∼one-third of patients. No biomarker currently exists that identifies non-responders before treatment. A rigorous community-based assessment of the utility of SNP data for predicting anti-TNF treatment efficacy in RA patients was performed in the context of a DREAM Challenge (http://www.synapse.org/RA_Challenge). An open challenge framework enabled the comparative evaluation of predictions developed by 73 research groups using the most comprehensive available data and covering a wide range of state-of-the-art modelling methodologies. Despite a significant genetic heritability estimate of treatment non-response trait (h(2)=0.18, P value=0.02), no significant genetic contribution to prediction accuracy is observed. Results formally confirm the expectations of the rheumatology community that SNP information does not significantly improve predictive performance relative to standard clinical traits, thereby justifying a refocusing of future efforts on collection of other data.

Partitioning heritability by functional annotation using genome-wide association summary statistics.

Recent work has demonstrated that some functional categories of the genome contribute disproportionately to the heritability of complex diseases. Here we analyze a broad set of functional elements, including cell type-specific elements, to estimate their polygenic contributions to heritability in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 17 complex diseases and traits with an average sample size of 73,599. To enable this analysis, we introduce a new method, stratified LD score regression, for partitioning heritability from GWAS summary statistics while accounting for linked markers. This new method is computationally tractable at very large sample sizes and leverages genome-wide information. Our findings include a large enrichment of heritability in conserved regions across many traits, a very large immunological disease-specific enrichment of heritability in FANTOM5 enhancers and many cell type-specific enrichments, including significant enrichment of central nervous system cell types in the heritability of body mass index, age at menarche, educational attainment and smoking behavior.

Genetics of rheumatoid arthritis contributes to biology and drug discovery.

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological data sets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here we performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ∼10 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 101 (refs 2 - 4). We devised an in silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci and pathway analyses--as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency, haematological cancer somatic mutations and knockout mouse phenotypes--to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery.

Human genetics in rheumatoid arthritis guides a high-throughput drug screen of the CD40 signaling pathway.

Although genetic and non-genetic studies in mouse and human implicate the CD40 pathway in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), there are no approved drugs that inhibit CD40 signaling for clinical care in RA or any other disease. Here, we sought to understand the biological consequences of a CD40 risk variant in RA discovered by a previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) and to perform a high-throughput drug screen for modulators of CD40 signaling based on human genetic findings. First, we fine-map the CD40 risk locus in 7,222 seropositive RA patients and 15,870 controls, together with deep sequencing of CD40 coding exons in 500 RA cases and 650 controls, to identify a single SNP that explains the entire signal of association (rs4810485, P = 1.4×10(-9)). Second, we demonstrate that subjects homozygous for the RA risk allele have ∼33% more CD40 on the surface of primary human CD19+ B lymphocytes than subjects homozygous for the non-risk allele (P = 10(-9)), a finding corroborated by expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from 1,469 healthy control individuals. Third, we use retroviral shRNA infection to perturb the amount of CD40 on the surface of a human B lymphocyte cell line (BL2) and observe a direct correlation between amount of CD40 protein and phosphorylation of RelA (p65), a subunit of the NF-κB transcription factor. Finally, we develop a high-throughput NF-κB luciferase reporter assay in BL2 cells activated with trimerized CD40 ligand (tCD40L) and conduct an HTS of 1,982 chemical compounds and FDA-approved drugs. After a series of counter-screens and testing in primary human CD19+ B cells, we identify 2 novel chemical inhibitors not previously implicated in inflammation or CD40-mediated NF-κB signaling. Our study demonstrates proof-of-concept that human genetics can be used to guide the development of phenotype-based, high-throughput small-molecule screens to identify potential novel therapies in complex traits such as RA.

Genome-wide association study and gene expression analysis identifies CD84 as a predictor of response to etanercept therapy in rheumatoid arthritis.

Anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) biologic therapy is a widely used treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unknown why some RA patients fail to respond adequately to anti-TNF therapy, which limits the development of clinical biomarkers to predict response or new drugs to target refractory cases. To understand the biological basis of response to anti-TNF therapy, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of more than 2 million common variants in 2,706 RA patients from 13 different collections. Patients were treated with one of three anti-TNF medications: etanercept (n = 733), infliximab (n = 894), or adalimumab (n = 1,071). We identified a SNP (rs6427528) at the 1q23 locus that was associated with change in disease activity score (ΔDAS) in the etanercept subset of patients (P = 8 × 10(-8)), but not in the infliximab or adalimumab subsets (P>0.05). The SNP is predicted to disrupt transcription factor binding site motifs in the 3' UTR of an immune-related gene, CD84, and the allele associated with better response to etanercept was associated with higher CD84 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (P = 1 × 10(-11) in 228 non-RA patients and P = 0.004 in 132 RA patients). Consistent with the genetic findings, higher CD84 gene expression correlated with lower cross-sectional DAS (P = 0.02, n = 210) and showed a non-significant trend for better ΔDAS in a subset of RA patients with gene expression data (n = 31, etanercept-treated). A small, multi-ethnic replication showed a non-significant trend towards an association among etanercept-treated RA patients of Portuguese ancestry (n = 139, P = 0.4), but no association among patients of Japanese ancestry (n = 151, P = 0.8). Our study demonstrates that an allele associated with response to etanercept therapy is also associated with CD84 gene expression, and further that CD84 expression correlates with disease activity. These findings support a model in which CD84 genotypes and/or expression may serve as a useful biomarker for response to etanercept treatment in RA patients of European ancestry.

Quantifying missing heritability at known GWAS loci.

Recent work has shown that much of the missing heritability of complex traits can be resolved by estimates of heritability explained by all genotyped SNPs. However, it is currently unknown how much heritability is missing due to poor tagging or additional causal variants at known GWAS loci. Here, we use variance components to quantify the heritability explained by all SNPs at known GWAS loci in nine diseases from WTCCC1 and WTCCC2. After accounting for expectation, we observed all SNPs at known GWAS loci to explain 1.29 x more heritability than GWAS-associated SNPs on average (P=3.3 x 10⁻5). For some diseases, this increase was individually significant: 2.07 x for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (P=6.5 x 10⁻9) and 1.48 x for Crohn's Disease (CD) (P = 1.3 x 10⁻³); all analyses of autoimmune diseases excluded the well-studied MHC region. Additionally, we found that GWAS loci from other related traits also explained significant heritability. The union of all autoimmune disease loci explained 7.15 x more MS heritability than known MS SNPs (P < 1.0 x 10⁻¹6 and 2.20 x more CD heritability than known CD SNPs (P = 6.1 x 10⁻9), with an analogous increase for all autoimmune diseases analyzed. We also observed significant increases in an analysis of > 20,000 Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) samples typed on ImmunoChip, with 2.37 x more heritability from all SNPs at GWAS loci (P = 2.3 x 10⁻6) and 5.33 x more heritability from all autoimmune disease loci (P < 1 x 10⁻¹6 compared to known RA SNPs (including those identified in this cohort). Our methods adjust for LD between SNPs, which can bias standard estimates of heritability from SNPs even if all causal variants are typed. By comparing adjusted estimates, we hypothesize that the genome-wide distribution of causal variants is enriched for low-frequency alleles, but that causal variants at known GWAS loci are skewed towards common alleles. These findings have important ramifications for fine-mapping study design and our understanding of complex disease architecture.

Genome-wide association analysis of anti-TNF drug response in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Treatment strategies blocking tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) have proven very successful in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, a significant subset of patients does not respond for unknown reasons. Currently, there are no means of identifying these patients before treatment. This study was aimed at identifying genetic factors predicting anti-TNF treatment outcome in patients with RA using a genome-wide association approach. METHODS: We conducted a multistage, genome-wide association study with a primary analysis of 2 557 253 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 882 patients with RA receiving anti-TNF therapy included through the Dutch Rheumatoid Arthritis Monitoring (DREAM) registry and the database of Apotheekzorg. Linear regression analysis of changes in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints after 14 weeks of treatment was performed using an additive model. Markers with p<10(-3) were selected for replication in 1821 patients from three independent cohorts. Pathway analysis including all SNPs with p<10(-3) was performed using Ingenuity. RESULTS: 772 markers showed evidence of association with treatment outcome in the initial stage. Eight genetic loci showed improved p value in the overall meta-analysis compared with the first stage, three of which (rs1568885, rs1813443 and rs4411591) showed directional consistency over all four cohorts studied. We were unable to replicate markers previously reported to be associated with anti-TNF outcome. Network analysis indicated strong involvement of biological processes underlying inflammatory response and cell morphology. CONCLUSIONS: Using a multistage strategy, we have identified eight genetic loci associated with response to anti-TNF treatment. Further studies are required to validate these findings in additional patient collections.

Use of a multiethnic approach to identify rheumatoid- arthritis-susceptibility loci, 1p36 and 17q12.

We have previously shown that rheumatoid arthritis (RA) risk alleles overlap between different ethnic groups. Here, we utilize a multiethnic approach to show that we can effectively discover RA risk alleles. Thirteen putatively associated SNPs that had not yet exceeded genome-wide significance (p < 5 × 10(-8)) in our previous RA genome-wide association study (GWAS) were analyzed in independent sample sets consisting of 4,366 cases and 17,765 controls of European, African American, and East Asian ancestry. Additionally, we conducted an overall association test across all 65,833 samples (a GWAS meta-analysis plus the replication samples). Of the 13 SNPs investigated, four were significantly below the study-wide Bonferroni corrected p value threshold (p < 0.0038) in the replication samples. Two SNPs (rs3890745 at the 1p36 locus [p = 2.3 × 10(-12)] and rs2872507 at the 17q12 locus [p = 1.7 × 10(-9)]) surpassed genome-wide significance in all 16,659 RA cases and 49,174 controls combined. We used available GWAS data to fine map these two loci in Europeans and East Asians, and we found that the same allele conferred risk in both ethnic groups. A series of bioinformatic analyses identified TNFRSF14-MMEL1 at the 1p36 locus and IKZF3-ORMDL3-GSDMB at the 17q12 locus as the genes most likely associated with RA. These findings demonstrate empirically that a multiethnic approach is an effective strategy for discovering RA risk loci, and they suggest that combining GWASs across ethnic groups represents an efficient strategy for gaining statistical power.

Unifying the spatial population dynamics and molecular evolution of epidemic rabies virus.

Infectious disease emergence is under the simultaneous influence of both genetic and ecological factors. Yet, we lack a general framework for linking ecological dynamics of infectious disease with underlying molecular and evolutionary change. As a model, we illustrate the linkage between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in rabies virus during its epidemic expansion into eastern and southern Ontario. We characterized the phylogeographic relationships among 83 isolates of fox rabies virus variant using nucleotide sequences from the glycoprotein-encoding glycoprotein gene. The fox rabies virus variant descended as an irregular wave with two arms invading from northern Ontario into southern Ontario over the 1980s and 1990s. Correlations between genetic and geographic distance suggest an isolation by distance population structure for the virus. The divergence among viral lineages since the most recent common ancestor correlates with position along the advancing wave front with more divergent lineages near the origin of the epidemic. Based on divergence from the most recent common ancestor, the regional population can be partitioned into two subpopulations, each corresponding to an arm of the advancing wave. Subpopulation A (southern Ontario) showed reduced isolation by distance relative to subpopulation B (eastern Ontario). The temporal dynamics of subpopulation A suggests that the subregional viral population may have undergone several smaller waves that reduced isolation by distance. The use of integrated approaches, such as the geographical analysis of sequence variants, coupled with information on spatial dynamics will become indispensable aids in understanding patterns of disease emergence.