Design and methods of a postmarketing pharmacoepidemiology study assessing long-term safety of Prolia® (denosumab) for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis.

PURPOSE: To describe the rationale and methods for a prospective, open-cohort study assessing the long-term safety of Prolia(®) for treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) in postmarketing settings. METHODS: Data will be derived from United States Medicare, United Healthcare, and Nordic (Denmark, Sweden, Norway) national registries. Observation will begin on the date of first Prolia(®) regulatory approval (May 26, 2010) and continue for 10 years. Women with PMO will be identified by postmenopausal age, osteoporosis diagnosis, osteoporotic fracture, or osteoporosis treatment. Exposure to Prolia(®) and bisphosphonates will be updated during follow-up; exposure cohorts will be defined based on patient-years during which patients are on- or post-treatment. Nine adverse events (AEs) will be assessed based on diagnosis codes: osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ), atypical femoral fracture (AFF), fracture healing complications, hypocalcemia, infection, dermatologic AEs, acute pancreatitis, hypersensitivity, and new primary malignancy. Medical review will confirm selected potential cases of ONJ and AFF. Incidence rates (IRs) of AEs will be described overall and for exposure cohorts; multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models will compare IRs of AEs across exposure cohorts. Utilization patterns of Prolia(®) for approved, and unapproved indications will be described. CONCLUSION: This study is based on comprehensive preliminary research and considers methodological challenges specific to the study population. The integrated data systems used in this regulatory committed program can serve as a powerful data resource to assess diverse and rare AEs over time.

Effects of denosumab on fracture and bone mineral density by level of kidney function.

The incidences of osteoporosis and chronic kidney disease (CKD) both increase with increasing age, yet there is a paucity of data on treatments for osteoporosis in the setting of impaired kidney function. We examined the efficacy and safety of denosumab (DMAb) among subjects participating in the Fracture Reduction Evaluation of Denosumab in Osteoporosis Every 6 Months (FREEDOM) Study. We estimated creatinine clearance (eGFR) using Cockcroft-Gault and classified levels of kidney function using the modified National Kidney Foundation classification of CKD. We examined incident fracture rates; changes in bone mineral density (BMD), serum calcium, and creatinine; and the incidence of adverse events after 36 months of follow-up in subjects receiving DMAb or placebo, stratified by level of kidney function. We used a subgroup interaction term to determine if there were differences in treatment effect by eGFR. Most (93%) women were white, and the mean age was 72.3 ± 5.2 years; 73 women had an eGFR of 15 to 29 mL/min; 2817, between 30 to 59 mL/min; 4069, between 60 to 89 mL/min, and 842 had an eGFR of 90 mL/min or greater. None had stage 5 CKD. Fracture risk reduction and changes in BMD at all sites were in favor of DMAb. The test for treatment by subgroup interaction was not statistically significant, indicating that treatment efficacy did not differ by kidney function. Changes in creatinine and calcium and the incidence of adverse events were similar between groups and did not differ by level of kidney function. It is concluded that DMAb is effective at reducing fracture risk and is not associated with an increase in adverse events among patients with impaired kidney function.

Chronic kidney disease and the risk of end-stage renal disease versus death.

BACKGROUND: Among older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the comparative event rates of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cause-specific death are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the rates of ESRD, cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death and examine risk factors for ESRD and all-cause mortality in Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants. DESIGN: The CHS is a longitudinal cohort study of community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older. PARTICIPANTS: 1,268 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) were followed until the time of first event (ESRD, cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular death) or until March 31, 2003. MAIN MEASURES: The outcomes were ESRD, cardiovascular- and non-cardiovascular death. Rates of each event were calculated, and a Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a competing risk framework was used to examine risk factors for ESRD as compared with death. Predictors included age, gender, race, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, tobacco use, eGFR, and total cholesterol. KEY RESULTS: During 9.7 years of follow-up, 5% of the cohort progressed to ESRD, and 61% of the cohort died. The rate (per 100 person-years) was 0.5 for ESRD and 6.8 for all-cause mortality (3.0 for cardiovascular and 3.8 for non-cardiovascular mortality). In the competing risk framework, lower eGFR, male gender, African-American race, and higher BMI were associated with an increased risk of ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with CKD are 13-fold more likely to die from any cause than progress to ESRD and are 6-fold more likely to die from cardiovascular causes than develop ESRD.

Effect of darbepoetin alfa administered once monthly on maintaining hemoglobin levels in older patients with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The anemia of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased hospitalizations, increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and diminished quality of life in the elderly. Darbepoetin alfa is an erythropoiesis-stimulating agent that has been shown to be effective in treating anemia in patients with CKD (but not on dialysis) when administered using extended-dosing regimens. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this post hoc analysis was to examine the efficacy and safety profile of once-monthly (QM) darbepoetin alfa in study patients stratified according to age (ie, <65, 65-74, and > or =75 years). METHODS: Patients with CKD but not on dialysis, receiving darbepoetin alfa every other week (Q2W), and with stable hemoglobin (Hb) levels between 11 and 13 g/dL, inclusive, were enrolled in this 33-week, multicenter, open-label, single-arm study. The study was carried out at 36 US centers and consisted of a 24-week QM darbepoetin alfa dose-titration period followed by an 8-week evaluation period. Hb levels were measured Q2W. Study results were stratified according to patient age (<65, 65-74, and > or =75 years). RESULTS: A total of 152 patients (79 women, 73 men) were enrolled; 55 patients (36%) were <65 years of age, 46 (30%) were 65 to 74 years of age, and 51 (34%) were > or =75 years of age. In patients who received > or =1 dose of darbepoetin alfa, Hb levels > or =11 g/dL were maintained in 76%, 80%, and 71% of patients aged <65, 65 to 74, and > or =75 years, respectively. For patients who completed the study, the proportions who maintained Hb levels > or =11 g/dL were 83%, 88%, and 85%, respectively, for the 3 age groups. The safety profile of QM darbepoetin alfa in this study was consistent with that expected in patients with CKD not receiving dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: Darbepoetin alfa administered QM maintained Hb levels > or =11 g/dL in patients with CKD (not on dialysis) aged <65, 65 to 74, and > or =75 years. This treatment regimen may help optimize anemia management for older community-dwelling and long-term care patients.

Differences in kidney function and incident hypertension: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Kidney disease and hypertension commonly coexist, yet the direction of their association is still debated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether early kidney dysfunction, measured by serum cystatin C levels and urinary albumin excretion, predates hypertension in adults without clinically recognized kidney or cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Observational cohort study using data from 2000 to 2005. SETTING: The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), a community-based study of subclinical cardiovascular disease in adults age 45 to 84 years. PARTICIPANTS: 2767 MESA participants without prevalent hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or clinically recognized kidney disease (an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or microalbuminuria). MEASUREMENTS: Cystatin C was measured by using a nephelometer, and urinary albumin and creatinine were measured from a spot morning collection. The primary outcome was incident hypertension, defined as systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or use of an antihypertensive medication. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.1 years, 19.7% of the cohort (545 participants) developed hypertension. After adjustment for established hypertension risk factors, each 15-nmol/L increase in cystatin C was associated with a statistically significant 15% greater incidence of hypertension (P = 0.017). The highest sex-specific quartile of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio was associated with a statistically insignificant 16% greater incidence of hypertension (P = 0.192) compared with the lowest quartile. No statistical evidence suggested a multiplicative interaction. LIMITATIONS: Unmeasured characteristics may have confounded observed associations of kidney markers with hypertension. Follow-up was relatively short. Hypertension that may have occurred between study visits or hypertension that was not captured by standard cuff measurements may have been missed. CONCLUSION: Differences in kidney function, indicated by cystatin C levels, are associated with incident hypertension among individuals without clinical kidney or cardiovascular disease. These population-based findings complement experimental work implicating early kidney damage in the pathogenesis of essential hypertension.

Greater epoetin alfa responsiveness is associated with improved survival in hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Among hemodialysis patients, achieved hemoglobin is associated with Epoetin alfa dose and erythropoietin responsiveness. A prospective erythropoietin responsiveness measure was developed and its association with mortality evaluated. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Data from 321 participants were used and randomized to the hematocrit normalization arm of the Normal Hematocrit Cardiac Trial. Subjects were to receive a 50% Epoetin alfa dose increase at randomization. The prospective erythropoietin responsiveness measure was defined as the ratio of weekly hematocrit change (over the 3 wk after randomization) per Epoetin alfa dose increase (1000 IU/wk) corresponding to the mandated 50% dose increase at randomization. The distribution of responsiveness was divided into quartiles. Over a 1-yr follow-up, Cox proportional hazard modeling evaluated associations between this responsiveness measure and mortality. RESULTS: Erythropoietin responsiveness values ranged from -2.1% to 2.4% per week per 1000 IU. Although subjects were similar across response quartiles, mortality ranged between 14% and 34% among subjects in the highest and lowest response quartiles (P = 0.0004), respectively. After adjusting for baseline prognostic indicators, highest versus lowest responsiveness was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.41 (95% confidence interval, 0.20 to 0.87). CONCLUSION: Lower erythropoietin responsiveness is a strong, independent predictor of mortality risk and should be considered when evaluating associations between clinical outcomes and potential prognostic indicators, such as Epoetin alfa dose and achieved hemoglobin values.

Cardiovascular risk factors and incident acute renal failure in older adults: the cardiovascular health study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although the elderly are at increased risk for acute renal failure, few prospective studies have identified risk factors for acute renal failure in the elderly. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: The associations of cardiovascular disease risk factors, subclinical cardiovascular disease, and clinical coronary heart disease with the risk for development of acute renal failure were examined in older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling older adults. Incident hospitalized cases of acute renal failure were identified through hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes and confirmed through physician diagnoses of acute renal failure in discharge summaries. RESULTS: Acute renal failure developed in 225 (3.9%) of the 5731 patients during a median follow-up period of 10.2 yr. In multivariate analyses, diabetes, current smoking, hypertension, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen were associated with acute renal failure. Prevalent coronary heart disease was associated with incident acute renal failure, and among patients without prevalent coronary heart disease, subclinical vascular disease measures were also associated with acute renal failure: Low ankle-arm index (< or =0.9), common carotid intima-media thickness, and internal carotid intima-media thickness. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, population-based, prospective cohort study, cardiovascular risk factors and both subclinical and clinical vascular disease were associated with incident acute renal failure in the elderly.

Association of mild to moderate kidney dysfunction and coronary calcification.

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is prevalent and predicts mortality among patients with ESRD, but whether less severe kidney dysfunction is associated with CAC is uncertain. To address this question, 6749 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, who were middle-aged and without known cardiovascular disease, were evaluated. Renal function was categorized by cystatin C quartiles and estimated GFR (eGFR; < to >60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), and CAC was evaluated by computed tomography (CT). Fifty percent of participants had CAC, mean cystatin C was 0.90 mg/L, and 10% had eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). In unadjusted analysis, kidney dysfunction by either measure was strongly associated with CAC; however, the associations were lost after adjustment for age, gender, race, hypertension, and IL-6 (relative risk 1.04 [95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.11] for the highest cystatin C quartile compared with the lowest, and relative risk 1.03 [95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.08] for eGFR below compared with above 60 m/min per 1.73 m(2)). Similarly, neither higher cystatin C nor eGFR <60 was associated with severity of CAC. These results suggest that a higher burden of CAC is unlikely to explain the association between mild to moderate kidney dysfunction and cardiovascular mortality.

Chronic kidney disease increases risk for venous thromboembolism.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality, but its association with incident venous thromboembolism (VTE) in non-dialysis-dependent patients has not been evaluated in a community-based population. With the use of data from the Longitudinal Investigation of Thromboembolism Etiology (LITE) study, 19,073 middle-aged and elderly adults were categorized on the basis of estimated GFR, and cystatin C (available in 4734 participants) was divided into quintiles. During a mean follow-up time of 11.8 yr, 413 participants developed VTE. Compared with participants with normal kidney function, relative risk for VTE was 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02 to 1.59) for those with mildly decreased kidney function and 2.09 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.96) for those with stage 3/4 CKD, when adjusted for age, gender, race, and center. After additional adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors, an increased risk for VTE was still observed in participants with stage 3/4 CKD, with a multivariable adjusted relative risk of 1.71 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.49). There was no significant association between cystatin C and VTE. In conclusion, middle-aged and elderly patients with CKD (stages 3 through 4) are at increased risk for incident VTE, suggesting that VTE prophylaxis may be particularly important in this population.

Association of kidney function with incident hip fracture in older adults.

Kidney dysfunction is associated with bone loss, and patients with ESRD have an increased risk for hip fracture. However, the association of mild to moderate kidney disease with hip fracture has not been studied previously. The association of kidney function with incident hip fracture was examined among participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a community-based cohort of older individuals. The primary measure of kidney function was serum cystatin C, a measure that does not depend on lean mass. Hip fractures were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for hospitalizations. A total of 4699 individuals had cystatin C measured in 1992 to 1993 and did not have a hip fracture before cystatin C measurement. The association of kidney function with hip fracture was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women. After a mean follow-up of 7.1 yr, 195 incident hip fractures occurred in women and 79 occurred in men. Higher cystatin C levels were associated with a higher risk for fracture in women (hazard ratio [HR] 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 1.38 per SD) and in men (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.46). After multivariable adjustment, higher cystatin C levels were significantly associated with hip fracture in women (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01, 1.33) but not in men (HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.52), although the magnitude of the association was similar. Kidney dysfunction, as assessed by cystatin C, is associated with an increased risk for hip fracture. Further studies are needed to evaluate potential mediators of this relationship and to assess whether interventions can decrease this risk.

Cystatin C and prognosis for cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in elderly persons without chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C is an alternative measure of kidney function that may have prognostic importance among elderly persons who do not meet standard criteria for chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] > or =60 mL/min per 1.73 m2). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate cystatin C as a prognostic biomarker for death, cardiovascular disease, and incident chronic kidney disease among elderly persons without chronic kidney disease. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort recruited from 4 communities in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 4663 elderly persons. MEASUREMENTS: Measures of kidney function were creatinine-based estimated GFR by using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and cystatin C concentration. Outcomes were death, cardiovascular death, noncardiovascular death, heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, and incident chronic kidney disease during follow-up (median, 9.3 years). RESULTS: At baseline, 78% of participants did not have chronic kidney disease (estimated GFR > or =60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) and mean cystatin C concentration, creatinine concentration, and estimated GFR were 1.0 mg/L, 79.6 micromol/L (0.9 mg/dL), and 83 mL/min per 1.73 m2, respectively. Cystatin C concentrations (per SD, 0.18 mg/L) had strong associations with death (hazard ratio, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.25 to 1.40]), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.42 [CI, 1.30 to 1.54]), noncardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 1.26 [CI, 1.17 to 1.36]), incident heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.28 [CI, 1.17 to 1.40]), stroke (hazard ratio, 1.22 [CI, 1.08 to 1.38]), and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.20 [CI, 1.06 to 1.36]) among these participants. Serum creatinine concentrations had much weaker associations with each outcome and only predicted cardiovascular death. Participants without chronic kidney disease who had elevated cystatin C concentrations (> or =1.0 mg/L) had a 4-fold risk for progressing to chronic kidney disease after 4 years of follow-up compared with those with cystatin C concentrations less than 1.0 mg/L. LIMITATIONS: Because this study did not directly measure GFR or albuminuria, the extent to which cystatin C may be influenced by nonrenal factors was not determined and participants with albuminuria might have been misclassified as having no kidney disease. CONCLUSIONS: Among elderly persons without chronic kidney disease, cystatin C is a prognostic biomarker of risk for death, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease. In this setting, cystatin C seems to identify a "preclinical" state of kidney dysfunction that is not detected with serum creatinine or estimated GFR.

Kidney function predicts the rate of bone loss in older individuals: the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Results of cross-sectional analyses of the association of kidney function with bone mineral density (BMD) have been conflicting. We examined the association of cystatin-C, a new marker of kidney function that is unrelated to lean mass, with initial and follow-up BMD, in an ancillary study of the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort of individuals > or = 65 years old. METHODS: Two years after measurement of cystatin-C and other covariates, the first BMD was measured in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Davis, California, by using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Follow-up BMD was measured in Pittsburgh 4 years later. Associations of cystatin-C with initial BMD and the change in BMD (%/y) at the hip were examined with linear regression. Analyses were conducted separately for men and women. RESULTS: In 1519 participants who had cystatin-C and initial BMD assessed, 614 had follow-up BMD. The percent annual change in BMD at the total hip by cystatin-C quartiles was -0.24, -0.13, -0.40, and -0.66%/y (first to fourth quartile) in women and -0.02, -0.30, -0.18, and -0.94%/y in men. After adjusting for potential confounders, cystatin-C was marginally associated with initial BMD in men but not women. Cystatin-C was associated with bone loss in men; after adjustment for weight loss, cystatin-C was not associated with bone loss in women. CONCLUSION: Kidney dysfunction, as assessed by cystatin-C, is associated with a more rapid loss of BMD at the hip, especially in men. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and to determine whether this loss leads to an elevated risk of fracture.

Darbepoetin alfa for the treatment of anemia in pediatric patients with chronic kidney disease.

Darbepoetin alfa, an erythropoiesis-stimulating glycoprotein, has proved efficacious in the treatment of anemia of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adult subjects. However, little information is available from pediatric populations. We conducted an open-label, non-inferiority, 28-week study comparing the efficacy of darbepoetin alfa with that of recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEpo) in pediatric subjects with CKD. Subjects, aged 1-18, who were receiving stable rHuEpo treatment (n=124) were randomized (1:2) to either continue receiving rHuEpo or convert to darbepoetin alfa, with doses titrated to achieve and maintain hemoglobin (Hb) levels between 10.0 and 12.5 g/dl. Darbepoetin alfa was considered to be non-inferior to rHuEpo if the lower limit of the two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) for the difference in the mean change in Hb between the two treatment groups was above -1.0 g/dl. The adjusted mean change in Hb between the baseline and the evaluation period for the rHuEpo and darbepoetin alfa groups was -0.16 g/dl and 0.15 g/dl, respectively, with a difference of 0.31 g/dl (95% CI: -0.45, 1.07) between the means. These results, and the comparable safety profiles, demonstrate that darbepoetin alfa is non-inferior to rHuEpo in the treatment of anemia in pediatric patients with CKD.

Cystatin C and incident peripheral arterial disease events in the elderly: results from the Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: The association of cystatin C, a novel marker of renal function, with risk for developing complications related to peripheral arterial disease (PAD) has not been examined. METHODS: We evaluated the hypothesis that a high cystatin C concentration is independently associated with future PAD events among 4025 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study who underwent serum cystatin C measurement at the 1992-1993 visit and who did not have PAD at baseline. The association of cystatin C quintiles with time to first lower-extremity PAD procedure (bypass surgery, angioplasty, or amputation) was evaluated using multivariable proportional hazards models. Secondary analyses were conducted using quintiles of serum creatinine level and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS: The annualized risk of undergoing a procedure for PAD was 0.43% per year among participants in the highest cystatin C quintile (>1.27 mg/L) compared with 0.21% per year or less in all other quintiles. After multivariable adjustment for known risk factors for PAD, elevated cystatin C levels remained associated with the outcome (hazard ratio, 2.5 for highest vs lowest quintile of cystatin C, 95% confidence interval, 1.2-5.1). The highest quintiles of serum creatinine level and eGFR were not associated with future PAD events in either unadjusted or adjusted analyses. CONCLUSION: Elevated concentrations of cystatin C were independently predictive of incident PAD events among community-dwelling elderly patients.

Cystatin-C and inflammatory markers in the ambulatory elderly.

PURPOSE: Inflammatory factors are elevated in persons with severe renal dysfunction, but their association across all levels of renal function is unclear. We compared cystatin-C, a novel marker of renal function, with creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as predictors of C-reactive protein and fibrinogen levels. METHODS: This study is a cross-sectional analysis to evaluate cystatin-C, creatinine, and eGFR as predictors of the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and fibrinogen. Participants included 4637 ambulatory elderly patients from the Cardiovascular Health Study. Multivariate linear regression was used to determine the independent associations of each renal function measurement with the inflammatory marker outcomes. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounding factors, cystatin-C was correlated with both C-reactive protein (coefficient = 0.13; 95% confidence interval: 0.10-1.16, P <.0001) and fibrinogen levels (0.15; 0.13-0.18, P <.0001). Associations were larger than those for creatinine and C-reactive protein (0.05; 0.02-0.07, P = .003) or fibrinogen (0.07; 0.04-0.10, P <.0001). Adjusted levels of C-reactive protein increased incrementally across quintiles of cystatin-C, from a median of 2.2 mg/L in quintile 1 to 3.7 mg/L in quintile 5. In contrast, both C-reactive protein and fibrinogen had U-shaped associations with quintiles of creatinine and eGFR, because the inflammatory markers were equivalently elevated in quintiles 1 and 5. CONCLUSIONS: The finding of a significant linear association of cystatin-C and inflammation markers suggests that even small reductions in renal function may be associated with adverse pathophysiologic consequences.

Kidney function as a predictor of noncardiovascular mortality.

Chronic kidney disease is associated with a higher risk for cardiovascular mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. Whether chronic kidney disease is a predictor of noncardiovascular mortality is less clear. To further explore the latter, the association of kidney function with total noncardiovascular mortality and cause-specific mortality was assessed in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a community-based cohort of older individuals. Kidney disease was assessed using cystatin C and estimated GFR in 4637 participants in 1992 to 1993. Participants were followed until June 30, 2001. Deaths were adjudicated as cardiovascular or noncardiovascular disease by committee, and an underlying cause of death was assigned. The associations of kidney function with total noncardiovascular mortality and cause-specific mortality were analyzed by proportional hazards regression. Noncardiovascular mortality rates increased with higher cystatin C quartiles (16.8, 17.1, 21.6, and 50.0 per 1000 person-years). The association of cystatin C with noncardiovascular mortality persisted after adjustment for demographic factors; the presence of diabetes, C-reactive protein, hemoglobin, and prevalent cardiovascular disease; and measures of atherosclerosis (hazard ratio 1.69; 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.15, for the fourth quartile versus the first quartile). Results for estimated GFR were similar. The risk for noncardiac deaths attributed to pulmonary disease, infection, cancer, and other causes was similarly associated with cystatin C levels. Kidney function predicts noncardiovascular mortality from multiple causes in the elderly. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms and evaluate interventions to reduce the high mortality rate in chronic kidney disease.

Cystatin C and subclinical brain infarction.

Subclinical brain infarcts (SBI) are common in the elderly and are associated with covert neurologic and cognitive impairment. Although renal impairment is associated with accelerated cerebrovascular disease and an increased risk for clinically apparent brain infarct, few studies have examined the relationship between renal function and SBI, and these may have been limited by the inaccuracy of creatinine as a renal function marker. A cross-sectional study was performed among older adults in the Cardiovascular Health Study to examine associations between SBI and two serum markers of renal function: Serum creatinine (SCr) and cystatin C (CysC). Patients had cranial magnetic resonance imaging and renal markers measured in 1992 to 1993. Logistic regression was used to estimate the associations between renal function (estimated by 1/SCr and 1/CysC) and SBI, controlling for potential confounding factors. SBI were present in 789 (28.7%) of 2784 participants. A linear association with SBI was observed for 1/CysC (per 1-SD decrement; odds ratio [OR] 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09 to 1.32; P < 0.001) but not for 1/SCr (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.19; P = 0.14), for which a quadratic U-shaped association was suggested (P = 0.004). In a model with both markers, 1/CysC was linearly associated with SBI (OR 1.26; P < 0.001), whereas 1/SCr was not (OR 1.06; P = 0.3). The prevalence of SBI was directly associated with quintile of CysC, whereas the association between SCr and SBI was U-shaped, with greater prevalence at high and low levels. Compared with creatinine, CysC, a novel marker of renal function, has a stronger and more direct association with SBI in the elderly.

Cystatin C and the risk of death and cardiovascular events among elderly persons.

BACKGROUND: Cystatin C is a serum measure of renal function that appears to be independent of age, sex, and lean muscle mass. We compared creatinine and cystatin C levels as predictors of mortality from cardiovascular causes and from all causes in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a cohort study of elderly persons living in the community. METHODS: Creatinine and cystatin C were measured in serum samples collected from 4637 participants at the study visit in 1992 or 1993; follow-up continued until June 30, 2001. For each measure, the study population was divided into quintiles, with the fifth quintile subdivided into thirds (designated 5a, 5b, and 5c). RESULTS: Higher cystatin C levels were directly associated, in a dose-response manner, with a higher risk of death from all causes. As compared with the first quintile, the hazard ratios (and 95 percent confidence intervals) for death were as follows: second quintile, 1.08 (0.86 to 1.35); third quintile, 1.23 (1.00 to 1.53); fourth quintile, 1.34 (1.09 to 1.66); quintile 5a, 1.77 (1.34 to 2.26); 5b, 2.18 (1.72 to 2.78); and 5c, 2.58 (2.03 to 3.27). In contrast, the association of creatinine categories with mortality from all causes appeared to be J-shaped. As compared with the two lowest quintiles combined (cystatin C level, < or =0.99 mg per liter), the highest quintile of cystatin C (> or =1.29 mg per liter) was associated with a significantly elevated risk of death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 2.27 [1.73 to 2.97]), myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.48 [1.08 to 2.02]), and stroke (hazard ratio, 1.47 [ 1.09 to 1.96]) after multivariate adjustment. The fifth quintile of creatinine, as compared with the first quintile, was not independently associated with any of these three outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Cystatin C, a serum measure of renal function, is a stronger predictor of the risk of death and cardiovascular events in elderly persons than is creatinine.

Cystatin C concentration as a risk factor for heart failure in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies that evaluated the association of kidney function with incident heart failure may be limited by the insensitivity of serum creatinine concentration for detecting abnormal kidney function. OBJECTIVE: To compare serum concentrations of cystatin C (a novel marker of kidney function) and creatinine as predictors of incident heart failure. DESIGN: Observational study based on measurement of serum cystatin C from frozen sera obtained at the 1992-1993 visit of the Cardiovascular Health Study. Follow-up occurred every 6 months. SETTING: Adults 65 years of age or older from 4 communities in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 4384 persons without previous heart failure who had measurements of serum cystatin C and serum creatinine. MEASUREMENTS: Incident heart failure. RESULTS: The mean (+/-SD) serum concentrations of cystatin C and creatinine were 82 +/- 25 nmol/L (1.10 +/- 0.33 mg/L) and 89 +/- 34 micromol/L (1.01 +/- 0.39 mg/dL), respectively. During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (maximum, 9.1 years), 763 (17%) participants developed heart failure. After adjustment for demographic factors, traditional and novel cardiovascular risk factors, cardiovascular disease status, and medication use, sequential quintiles of cystatin C concentration were associated with a stepwise increased risk for heart failure in Cox proportional hazards models (hazard ratios, 1.0 [reference], 1.30 [95% CI, 0.96 to 1.75], 1.44 [CI, 1.07 to 1.94], 1.58 [CI, 1.18 to 2.12], and 2.16 [CI, 1.61 to 2.91]). In contrast, quintiles of serum creatinine concentration were not associated with risk for heart failure in adjusted analysis (hazard ratios, 1.0 [reference], 0.77 [CI, 0.59 to 1.01], 0.85 [CI, 0.64 to 1.13], 0.97 [CI, 0.72 to 1.29], and 1.14 [CI, 0.87 to 1.49]). LIMITATIONS: The mechanism by which cystatin C concentration predicts risk for heart failure remains unclear. CONCLUSIONS: The cystatin C concentration is an independent risk factor for heart failure in older adults and appears to provide a better measure of risk assessment than the serum creatinine concentration. *For a full list of participating Cardiovascular Health Study investigators and institutions, see http://www.chs-nhlbi.org.

Cardiovascular mortality risk in chronic kidney disease: comparison of traditional and novel risk factors.

CONTEXT: Elderly persons with chronic kidney disease have substantial risk for cardiovascular mortality, but the relative importance of traditional and novel risk factors is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare traditional and novel risk factors as predictors of cardiovascular mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: A total of 5808 community-dwelling persons aged 65 years or older living in 4 communities in the United States participated in the Cardiovascular Health Study cohort. Participants were initially recruited from 1989 to June 1990; an additional 687 black participants were recruited in 1992-1993. The average length of follow-up in this longitudinal study was 8.6 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular mortality among those with and without chronic kidney disease. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. RESULTS: Among the participants, 1249 (22%) had chronic kidney disease at baseline. The cardiovascular mortality risk rate was 32 deaths/1000 person-years among those with chronic kidney disease vs 16/1000 person-years among those without it. In multivariate analyses, diabetes, systolic hypertension, smoking, low physical activity, nonuse of alcohol, and left ventricular hypertrophy were predictors of cardiovascular mortality in persons with chronic kidney disease (all P values <.05). Among the novel risk factors, only log C-reactive protein (P = .05) and log interleukin 6 (P<.001) were associated with the outcome as linear predictors. Traditional risk factors were associated with the largest absolute increases in risks for cardiovascular deaths among persons with chronic kidney disease: for left ventricular hypertrophy, there were 25 deaths per 1000 person-years; current smoking, 20 per 1000 person-years; physical inactivity, 15 per 1000 person-years; systolic hypertension, 14 per 1000 person-years; diabetes, 14 per 1000 person-years; and nonuse of alcohol, 11 per 1000 person-years vs 5 deaths per 1000 person-years for those with increased C-reactive protein and 5 per 1000 person-years for those with increased interleukin 6 levels. A receiver operating characteristic analysis found that traditional risk factors had an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.77) among those with chronic kidney disease. Adding novel risk factors only increased the area under the curve to 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.78; P for difference = .15). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional cardiovascular risk factors had larger associations with cardiovascular mortality than novel risk factors in elderly persons with chronic kidney disease. Future research should investigate whether aggressive lifestyle intervention in patients with chronic kidney disease can reduce their substantial cardiovascular risk.