External Control Arms in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Using Clinical Trial and Real-World Data Sources.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive lung disease for which novel therapies are needed. External controls (ECs) could enhance IPF trial efficiency, but the direct comparability of ECs versus concurrent controls is unknown. Objectives: To develop IPF ECs by fit-for-purpose data standards to historical randomized clinical trial (RCT), multicenter registry (Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry), and electronic health record (EHR) data and to evaluate endpoint comparability among ECs and the phase II RCT of BMS-986020. Methods: After data curation, the rate of change in FVC from baseline to 26 weeks among participants receiving BMS-986020 600 mg twice daily was compared with the BMS-placebo arm and ECs using mixed-effects models with inverse probability weights. Measurements and Main Results: At 26 weeks, the rates of change in FVC were -32.71 ml for BMS-986020 and -130.09 ml for BMS-placebo (difference, 97.4 ml; 95% confidence interval [CI], 24.6-170.2), replicating the original BMS-986020 RCT. RCT ECs showed treatment effect point estimates within the 95% CI of the original BMS-986020 RCT. Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry ECs and EHR ECs experienced a slower rate of FVC decline compared with the BMS-placebo arm, resulting in treatment-effect point estimates outside of the 95% CI of the original BMS-986020 RCT. Conclusions: IPF ECs generated from historical RCT placebo arms result in comparable primary treatment effects to that of the original clinical trial, whereas ECs from real-world data sources, including registry or EHR data, do not. RCT ECs may serve as a potentially useful supplement to future IPF RCTs.

Plasma levels of DPP4 activity and sDPP4 are dissociated from inflammation in mice and humans.

Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) modulates inflammation by enzymatic cleavage of immunoregulatory peptides and through its soluble form (sDPP4) that directly engages immune cells. Here we examine whether reduction of DPP4 activity alters inflammation. Prolonged DPP4 inhibition increases plasma levels of sDPP4, and induces sDPP4 expression in lymphocyte-enriched organs in mice. Bone marrow transplantation experiments identify hematopoietic cells as the predominant source of plasma sDPP4 following catalytic DPP4 inhibition. Surprisingly, systemic DPP4 inhibition increases plasma levels of inflammatory markers in regular chow-fed but not in high fat-fed mice. Plasma levels of sDPP4 and biomarkers of inflammation are lower in metformin-treated subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease, yet exhibit considerable inter-individual variation. Sitagliptin therapy for 12 months reduces DPP4 activity yet does not increase markers of inflammation or levels of sDPP4. Collectively our findings dissociate levels of DPP4 enzyme activity, sDPP4 and biomarkers of inflammation in mice and humans.

Does prior coronary angioplasty affect outcomes of surgical coronary revascularization? Insights from the STICH trial.

BACKGROUND: The STICH trial showed superiority of coronary artery bypass plus medical treatment (CABG) over medical treatment alone (MED) in patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤35%. In previous publications, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) prior to CABG was associated with worse prognosis. OBJECTIVES: The main purpose of this study was to analyse if prior PCI influenced outcomes in STICH. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients in the STICH trial (n = 1212), followed for a median time of 9.8 years, were included in the present analyses. In the total population, 156 had a prior PCI (74 and 82, respectively, in the MED and CABG groups). In those with vs. without prior PCI, the adjusted hazard-ratios (aHRs) were 0.92 (95% CI = 0.74-1.15) for all-cause mortality, 0.85 (95% CI = 0.64-1.11) for CV mortality, and 1.43 (95% CI = 1.15-1.77) for CV hospitalization. In the group randomized to CABG without prior PCI, the aHRs were 0.82 (95% CI = 0.70-0.95) for all-cause mortality, 0.75 (95% CI = 0.62-0.90) for CV mortality and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.56-0.80) for CV hospitalization. In the group randomized to CABG with prior PCI, the aHRs were 0.76 (95% CI = 0.50-1.15) for all-cause mortality, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.49-1.36) for CV mortality and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.41-0.90) for CV hospitalization. There was no evidence of interaction between randomized treatment and prior PCI for any endpoint (all adjusted p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In the STICH trial, prior PCI did not affect the outcomes of patients whether they were treated medically or surgically, and the superiority of CABG over MED remained unchanged regardless of prior PCI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov; Identifier: NCT00023595.

Burden of medical co-morbidities and benefit from surgical revascularization in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: The landmark STICH trial found that surgical revascularization compared to medical therapy alone improved survival in patients with heart failure (HF) of ischaemic aetiology and an ejection fraction (EF) ≤ 35%. However, the interaction between the burden of medical co-morbidities and the benefit from surgical revascularization has not been previously described in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: The STICH trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00023595) enrolled patients ≥ 18 years of age with coronary artery disease amenable to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and an EF ≤ 35%. Eligible participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive medical therapy (MED) (n = 602) or MED/CABG (n = 610). A modified Charlson co-morbidity index (CCI) based on the availability of data and study definitions was calculated by summing the weighted points for all co-morbid conditions. Patients were divided into mild/moderate (CCI 1-4) and severe (CCI ≥ 5) co-morbidity. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the association between CCI and outcomes and the interaction between severity of co-morbidity and treatment effect. The study population included 349 patients (29%) with a mild/moderate CCI score and 863 patients (71%) with a severe CCI score. Patients with a severe CCI score had greater functional limitations based on 6-min walk test and impairments in health-related quality of life as assessed by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire. A total of 161 patients (Kaplan-Meier rate = 50%) with a mild/moderate CCI score and 579 patients (Kaplan-Meier rate = 69%) with a severe CCI score died over a median follow-up of 9.8 years. After adjusting for baseline confounders, patients with a severe CCI score were at higher risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.74; P < 0.001). There was no interaction between CCI score and treatment effect on survival (P = 0.756). CONCLUSIONS: More than 70% of patients had a severe burden of medical co-morbidities at baseline, which was independently associated with increased risk of death. There was not a differential benefit of surgical revascularization with respect to survival based on severity of co-morbidity.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score and EuroSCORE-2 Appropriately Assess 30-Day Postoperative Mortality in the STICH Trial and a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction Undergoing Surgical Revascularization.

BACKGROUND: The STICH trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure) demonstrated a survival benefit of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and left ventricular dysfunction. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score and the EuroSCORE-2 (ES2) are used for risk assessment in cardiac surgery, with little information available about their accuracy in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. We assessed the ability of the STS score and ES2 to evaluate 30-day postoperative mortality risk in STICH and a contemporary cohort (CC) of patients with a left ventricle ejection fraction ≤35% undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting outside of a trial setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: The STS and ES2 scores were calculated for 814 STICH patients and 1246 consecutive patients in a CC. There were marked variations in 30-day postoperative mortality risk from 1 patient to another. The STS scores consistently calculated lower risk scores than ES2 (1.5 versus 2.9 for the CC and 0.9 versus 2.4 for the STICH cohort), and underestimated postoperative mortality risk. The STS and ES2 scores had moderately good C statistics: CC (0.727, 95% CI: 0.650-0.803 for STS, and 0.707, 95% CI: 0.620-0.795 for ES2); STICH (0.744, 95% CI: 0.677-0.812, for STS and 0.736, 95% CI: 0.665-0.808 for ES2). Despite the CC patients having higher STS and ES2 scores than STICH patients, mortality (3.5%) was lower than that of STICH (4.8%), suggesting a possible decrease in postoperative mortality over the past decade. CONCLUSIONS: The 30-day postoperative mortality risk of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with left ventricular dysfunction varies markedly. Both the STS and ES2 score are effective in evaluating risk, although the STS score tend to underestimate risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.

Impact of Intubation Time on Survival following Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: Insights from the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The authors aimed to assess determinants of intubation time and evaluate its impact on 30-day and 1-year postoperative survival in Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial patients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS: A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used among the 1,446 surgical patients from the STICH trial who survived 36 hours after operation, in order to identify perioperative factors associated with 30-day and 1-year postoperative mortality. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with intubation time. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: At 36 hours post-operation, 1,298 (out of 1,446) were extubated and 148 (10.2%) still intubated. Median postoperative intubation time was 11.4 hours. Among patients surviving 36 hours, a multivariable model was developed to predict 30-day (c-index = 0.88) and 1-year (c-index = 0.78) mortality. Intubation time was the strongest independent predictor of 30-day (hazard ratio [HR] 5.50) and 1-year mortality (HR 3.69). Predictors of intubation time >36 hours included mitral valve procedure, New York Heart Association class, left ventricular systolic volume index, creatinine, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), and age. Results were similar in patients surviving 24 hours post-operation, where intubation time was also the strongest predictor of 30-day (HR 4.18, c-index 0.87) and 1-year (HR 2.81, c-index 0.78) mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Intubation time is the strongest predictor of 30-day and 1-year mortality among patients with ischemic heart failure undergoing CABG. Combining intubation time with other mortality risk factors may allow the identification of patients at the highest risk for whom the development of specific strategies may improve outcomes.

Determinants of Diuretic Responsiveness and Associated Outcomes During Acute Heart Failure Hospitalization: An Analysis From the NHLBI Heart Failure Network Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Poor response to loop diuretic therapy is a marker of risk during heart failure hospitalization. We sought to describe baseline determinants of diuretic response and to further explore the relationship between this response and clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patient data from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Heart Failure Network ROSE-AHF and CARRESS-HF clinical trials were analyzed to determine baseline determinants of diuretic response. Diuretic efficiency (DE) was defined as total 72-hour fluid output per total equivalent loop diuretic dose. Data from DOSE-AHF was then used to determine if these predictors of DE correlated with response to a high- versus low-dose diuretic strategy. At 72 hours, the high-DE group had median fluid output of 9071 ml (interquartile range: 7240-11775) with median furosemide dose of 320 mg (220-480) compared with 8030 ml (6300-9915) and 840 mg (600-1215) respectively for the low DE group. Cystatin C was independently associated with DE (odds ratio 0.36 per 1mg/L increase; 95% confidence interval: 0.24-0.56; P < 0.001). Independently from baseline characteristics, reduced fluid output, weight loss and DE were each associated with increased 60 day mortality. Among patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate below the median, those randomized to a high-dose strategy had improved symptoms compared with those randomized to a low-dose strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated baseline cystatin C, as a biomarker of renal dysfunction, is associated with reduced diuretic response during heart failure hospitalization. Higher loop diuretic doses are required for therapeutic decongestion in patients with renal insufficiency. Poor response identifies a high-risk population.

Regional left ventricular function does not predict survival in ischaemic cardiomyopathy after cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVES: To define the prognostic contribution of global and regional left ventricular (LV) function measurements in patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy randomised to coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) with (n=501) or without (n=499) surgical ventricular reconstruction (SVR). METHODS: Novel multivariable methods to analyse global and regional LV systolic function were used to better formulate prediction models for long-term mortality following CABG with or without SVR in the entire cohort of 1000 randomised SVR hypothesis patients. Key clinical variables were included in the analysis. Regional function was classified according to the discreteness of anteroapical hypokinesia and akinesia into those most likely to benefit from SVR, those least likely and those felt to have intermediate likelihood of benefit from SVR. RESULTS: The most prognostic clinical variables identified in multivariable models include creatinine, LV end-systolic volume index (ESVI), age and NYHA (New York Heart Association) class. Addition of LV ejection fraction, LV end-diastolic volume index and regional function assessment did not contribute additional power to the model. Subgroup analysis based on regional function did not identify a cohort in which SVR improved mortality. CONCLUSIONS: ESVI is the single parameter of LV function most predictive of mortality in patients with LV systolic dysfunction following CABG with or without SVR in multivariable models that include all key clinical and LV systolic function parameters. Assessment of regional cardiac function does not enhance prediction of mortality nor identify a subgroup for which SVR improves mortality. These results do not support elective addition of LV reconstruction surgery in patients undergoing CABG. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00023595.

Safety of sitagliptin in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: outcomes from TECOS.

AIMS: To characterize the incidence of diabetes-associated complications and assess the safety of sitagliptin in participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: For participants with baseline eGFR measurements (n = 14 528), baseline characteristics and safety outcomes were compared for the CKD cohort (eGFR < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 ) vs those without CKD. Within the CKD cohort, the same analyses were performed, comparing sitagliptin- and placebo-assigned participants. Baseline characteristics were summarized for all participants, and serious adverse events were analysed in those who received at least 1 dose of study medication. Adverse events of interest and diabetes complications were summarized for the intention-to-treat population. RESULTS: CKD was present in 3324 (23%) participants at entry into TECOS. The mean (SD) age for this CKD cohort was 68.8 (7.9) years, mean diabetes duration was 13.7 (9.0) years, and 62% were men. Incidences of serious adverse events, malignancy, bone fracture, severe hypoglycaemia and most categories of diabetes complications were higher in the CKD cohort compared with those without CKD. Over ~2.8 median years of follow-up, CKD participants assigned to sitagliptin had rates of diabetic eye disease, diabetic neuropathy, renal failure, malignancy, bone fracture, pancreatitis and severe hypoglycaemia similar to those of placebo-assigned participants. CONCLUSIONS: Participants in TECOS with CKD had higher incidences of serious adverse events and diabetes complications than those without CKD. Treatment with sitagliptin was generally well tolerated, with no meaningful differences in safety outcomes observed between those with CKD assigned to sitagliptin or placebo.

Suppression of Tumorigenicity 2 in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) receptor is a biomarker that is elevated in certain systemic inflammatory diseases. Comorbidity-driven microvascular inflammation is postulated to play a key role in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) pathophysiology, but data on how sST2 relates to clinical characteristics or inflammatory conditions or biomarkers in HFpEF are limited. We sought to determine circulating levels and clinical correlates of sST2 in HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: At enrollment, patients (n=174) from the Phosphodiesterase-5 Inhibition to Improve Clinical Status And Exercise Capacity in Diastolic Heart Failure (RELAX) trial of sildenafil in HFpEF had sST2 levels measured. Clinical characteristics; cardiac structure and function; exercise performance; and biomarkers of neurohumoral activation, systemic inflammation and fibrosis, and myocardial necrosis were assessed in relation to sST2 levels. Median sST2 levels in male and female HFpEF patients were 36.7 ng/mL (range 30.9-49.2 ng/mL; reference range 4-31 ng/mL) and 30.8 ng/mL (range 25.3-39.3 ng/mL; reference range 2-21 ng/mL), respectively. Among HFpEF patients, higher sST2 levels were associated with the presence of diabetes mellitus; atrial fibrillation; renal dysfunction; right ventricular pressure overload and dysfunction; systemic congestion; exercise intolerance; and biomarkers of systemic inflammation and fibrosis, neurohumoral activation, and myocardial necrosis (P<0.05 for all). sST2 was not associated with left ventricular structure or left ventricular systolic or diastolic function. CONCLUSIONS: In HFpEF, sST2 levels were associated with proinflammatory comorbidities, right ventricular pressure overload and dysfunction, and systemic congestion but not with left ventricular geometry or function. These data suggest that ST2 may be a marker of systemic inflammation in HFpEF and potentially of extracardiac origin. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00763867.

Pancreatic Safety of Sitagliptin in the TECOS Study.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the incidence of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease who were treated with sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS) study, a cardiovascular safety study of sitagliptin, all suspected cases of acute pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were collected prospectively for 14,671 participants during a median follow-up time of 3 years, and were adjudicated blindly. RESULTS: Baseline differences were minimal between participants confirmed to have no pancreatic events, acute pancreatitis, or pancreatic cancer. Among those participants randomized to receive sitagliptin, 23 (0.3%) (vs. 12 randomized to receive placebo [0.2%]) had pancreatitis (hazard ratio 1.93 [95% CI 0.96-3.88], P = 0.065; 0.107 vs. 0.056/100 patient-years), with 25 versus 17 events, respectively. Severe pancreatitis (two fatal) occurred in four individuals allocated to receive sitagliptin. Cases of pancreatic cancer were numerically fewer with sitagliptin (9 [0.1%]) versus placebo (14 [0.2%]) (hazard ratio 0.66 [95% CI 0.28-1.51], P = 0.32; 0.042 vs. 0.066 events/100 patient-years). Meta-analysis with two other DPP-4i cardiovascular outcome studies showed an increased risk for acute pancreatitis (risk ratio 1.78 [95% CI 1.13-2.81], P = 0.01) and no significant effect for pancreatic cancer (risk ratio 0.54 [95% CI 0.28-1.04], P = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer were uncommon events with rates that were not statistically significantly different between the sitagliptin and placebo groups, although numerically more sitagliptin participants developed pancreatitis and fewer developed pancreatic cancer. Meta-analysis suggests a small absolute increased risk for pancreatitis with DPP-4i therapy.

Clopidogrel use After Myocardial Revascularization: Prevalence, Predictors, and One-Year Survival Rate.

INTRODUCTION: Antiplatelet therapy after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used. Little is known about the predictors and efficacy of clopidogrel in this scenario. OBJECTIVE: Identify predictors of clopidogrel following CABG. METHODS: We evaluated 5404 patients who underwent CABG between 2000 and 2009 at Duke University Medical Center. We excluded patients undergoing concomitant valve surgery, those who had postoperative bleeding or death before discharge. Postoperative clopidogrel was left to the discretion of the attending physician. Adjusted risk for 1-year mortality was compared between patients receiving and not receiving clopidogrel during hospitalization after undergoing CABG. RESULTS: At hospital discharge, 931 (17.2%) patients were receiving clopidogrel. Comparing patients not receiving clopidogrel at discharge, users had more comorbidities, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and cerebrovascular disease. Patients who received aspirin during hospitalization were less likely to receive clopidogrel at discharge (P≤0.0001). Clopidogrel was associated with similar 1-year mortality compared with those who did not use clopidogrel (4.4% vs. 4.5%, P=0.72). There was, however, an interaction between the use of cardiopulmonary bypass and clopidogrel, with lower 1-year mortality in patients undergoing off-pump CABG who received clopidogrel, but not those undergoing conventional CABG (2.6% vs 5.6%, P Interaction = 0.032). CONCLUSION: Clopidogrel was used in nearly one-fifth of patients after CABG. Its use was not associated with lower mortality after 1 year in general, but lower mortality rate in those undergoing off-pump CABG. Randomized clinical trials are needed to determine the benefit of routine use of clopidogrel in CABG.

Differential Response to Low-Dose Dopamine or Low-Dose Nesiritide in Acute Heart Failure With Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction: Results From the ROSE AHF Trial (Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure).

BACKGROUND: The ROSE AHF trial (Renal Optimization Strategies Evaluation in Acute Heart Failure) found that when compared with placebo, neither low-dose dopamine (2 µg/kg per minute) nor low-dose nesiritide (0.005 µg/kg per minute without bolus) enhanced decongestion or preserved renal function in AHF patients with renal dysfunction. However, there may be differential responses to vasoactive agents in AHF patients with reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (EF). This post hoc analysis examined potential interaction between treatment effect and EF (EF ≤40% versus >40%) on the ROSE AHF end points. METHODS AND RESULTS: ROSE AHF enrolled AHF patients (n=360; any EF) with renal dysfunction. The coprimary end points were cumulative urine volume and the change in serum cystatin-C in 72 hours. The effect of dopamine (interaction P=0.001) and nesiritide (interaction P=0.039) on urine volume varied by EF group. In heart failure with reduced EF, urine volume was higher with active treatment versus placebo, whereas in heart failure with preserved EF, urine volume was lower with active treatment. The effect of dopamine and nesiritide on weight change, sodium excretion, and incidence of AHF treatment failure also varied by EF group (interaction P<0.05 for all). There was no interaction between vasoactive treatment's effect and EF on change in cystatin-C. Compared with placebo, dopamine was associated with improved clinical outcomes in heart failure with reduced EF and worse clinical outcomes in heart failure with preserved EF. With nesiritide, there were no differences in clinical outcomes when compared with placebo in both heart failure with reduced EF and heart failure with preserved EF. CONCLUSIONS: In this post hoc analysis of ROSE AHF, the response to vasoactive therapies differed in patients with heart failure with reduced EF and heart failure with preserved EF. Investigations of AHF therapies should assess the potential for differential responses in AHF with preserved versus reduced EF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01132846.

Predicting Outcomes Over Time in Patients With Heart Failure, Left Ventricular Systolic Dysfunction, or Both Following Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Most studies of risk assessment or stratification in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) have been static and fail to account for the evolving nature of clinical events and care processes. We sought to identify predictors of mortality, cardiovascular death or nonfatal MI, and cardiovascular death or nonfatal heart failure (HF) over time in patients with HF, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, or both post-MI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using data from the VALsartan In Acute myocardial iNfarcTion (VALIANT) trial, we developed models to estimate the association between patient characteristics and the likelihood of experiencing an event from the time of a follow-up visit until the next visit. The intervals are: hospital arrival to discharge or 14 days, whichever occurs first; hospital discharge to 30 days; 30 days to 6 months; and 6 months to 3 years. Models were also developed to predict the entire 3-year follow-up period using baseline information. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling was used throughout with Wald chi-squares as the comparator of strength for each predictor. For the baseline model of overall mortality, the 3 strongest predictors were age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28-1.42; P<0.0001), baseline heart rate (adjusted HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.14-1.21; P<0.0001), and creatinine clearance (≤100 mL/min; adjusted HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.89; P<0.0001). According to the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) indices, the updated model had significant improvement over the model with baseline covariates only in all follow-up periods and with all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Patient information assessed closest to the time of the outcome was more valuable in predicting death when compared with information obtained at the time of the index hospitalization. Using updated patient information improves prognosis over using only the information available at the time of the index event.

Clopidogrel use after myocardial revascularization: prevalence, predictors, and one-year survival rate

Abstract Introduction: Antiplatelet therapy after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used. Little is known about the predictors and efficacy of clopidogrel in this scenario. Objective: Identify predictors of clopidogrel following CABG. Methods: We evaluated 5404 patients who underwent CABG between 2000 and 2009 at Duke University Medical Center. We excluded patients undergoing concomitant valve surgery, those who had postoperative bleeding or death before discharge. Postoperative clopidogrel was left to the discretion of the attending physician. Adjusted risk for 1-year mortality was compared between patients receiving and not receiving clopidogrel during hospitalization after undergoing CABG. Results: At hospital discharge, 931 (17.2%) patients were receiving clopidogrel. Comparing patients not receiving clopidogrel at discharge, users had more comorbidities, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and cerebrovascular disease. Patients who received aspirin during hospitalization were less likely to receive clopidogrel at discharge (P≤0.0001). Clopidogrel was associated with similar 1-year mortality compared with those who did not use clopidogrel (4.4% vs. 4.5%, P=0.72). There was, however, an interaction between the use of cardiopulmonary bypass and clopidogrel, with lower 1-year mortality in patients undergoing off-pump CABG who received clopidogrel, but not those undergoing conventional CABG (2.6% vs 5.6%, P Interaction = 0.032). Conclusion: Clopidogrel was used in nearly one-fifth of patients after CABG. Its use was not associated with lower mortality after 1 year in general, but lower mortality rate in those undergoing off-pump CABG. Randomized clinical trials are needed to determine the benefit of routine use of clopidogrel in CABG.

The MitraClip and survival in patients with mitral regurgitation at high risk for surgery: A propensity-matched comparison.

BACKGROUND: We compared 30-day and 1-year survival among high-risk mitral regurgitation (MR) patients treated with the MitraClip (Abbott Vascular, Abbott Park, IL) with matched non-surgically treated patients from the Duke Echocardiography Laboratory Database (DELD). METHODS AND RESULTS: High-risk patients with 3+/4+ MR managed non-surgically between years 2000 and 2010 in the longitudinal DELD were matched to high-risk MitraClip patients. Patient matching was performed using the method of nearest available Mahalanobis distance metric within calipers defined by the propensity score. Kaplan-Meier estimates and stratified Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival at 30 days and 1 year. Among 953 high-risk DELD patients available for matching, 30-day and 1-year mortality were 6.5% and 26.2%. Close matches were obtained for 239 of the 351 MitraClip patients. The 30-day mortality in MitraClip patients was lower (4.2%) when compared with matched DELD patients (7.2%). The 1-year relative risk of mortality of the MitraClip compared with non-surgical treatment was 0.64 (95% CI 0.45-0.91; log-rank P = .013). These results in favor of the MitraClip remained significant upon further adjustment for baseline differences between groups (P = .043). CONCLUSIONS: This matched comparison of severe MR patients at high surgical risk supports the safety of the MitraClip relative to medical therapy at 30 days and a survival benefit at 1 year.

Influence of Baseline Characteristics, Operative Conduct, and Postoperative Course on 30-Day Outcomes of Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Among Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Results From the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, ischemic heart failure, and coronary artery disease suitable for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are at higher risk for surgical morbidity and mortality. Paradoxically, those patients with the most severe coronary artery disease and ventricular dysfunction who derive the greatest clinical benefit from CABG are also at the greatest operative risk, which makes decision making regarding whether to proceed to surgery difficult in such patients. To better inform such decision making, we analyzed the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) CABG population for detailed information on perioperative risk and outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: In both STICH trials (hypotheses), 2136 patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of ≤35% and coronary artery disease were allocated to medical therapy, CABG plus medical therapy, or CABG with surgical ventricular reconstruction. Relationships of baseline characteristics and operative conduct with morbidity and mortality at 30 days were evaluated. There were a total of 1460 patients randomized to and receiving surgery, and 346 (≈25%) of these high-risk patients developed a severe complication within 30 days. Worsening renal insufficiency, cardiac arrest with cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and ventricular arrhythmias were the most frequent complications and those most commonly associated with death. Mortality at 30 days was 5.1% and was generally preceded by a serious complication (65 of 74 deaths). Left ventricular size, renal dysfunction, advanced age, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were significant preoperative predictors of mortality within 30 days. Cardiopulmonary bypass time was the only independent surgical variable predictive of 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CABG can be performed with relatively low 30-day mortality in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. Serious postoperative complications occurred in nearly 1 in 4 patients and were associated with mortality. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.

Characterising and predicting bleeding in high-risk patients with an acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: In the Apixaban for Prevention of Acute Ischemic Events (APPRAISE-2) trial, the use of apixaban, when compared with placebo, in high-risk patients with a recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) resulted in a significant increase in bleeding without a reduction in ischaemic events. The aim of this analysis was to provide further description of these bleeding events and to determine the baseline characteristics associated with bleeding in high-risk post-ACS patients. METHODS: APPRAISE-2 was a multinational clinical trial including 7392 high-risk patients with a recent ACS randomised to apixaban (5 mg twice daily) or placebo. Bleeding including Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) major or minor bleeding, International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) major or clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding, and any bleeding were analysed using an on-treatment analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to describe the timing of bleeding, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of ISTH major or CRNM bleeding and any bleeding. Median follow-up was 241 days. RESULTS: The proportion of patients who experienced TIMI major or minor, ISTH major or CRNM, and any bleeding was 1.5%, 2.2% and 13.3%, respectively. The incidence of bleeding was highest in the immediate post-ACS period (0.11 in the first 30 days vs 0.03 after 30 days events per 1 patient-year); however, >60% of major bleeding events occurred >30 days after the end of the index hospitalisation. Gastrointestinal bleeding was the most common cause of major bleeding, accounting for 45.9% of TIMI major or minor and 39.5% of ISTH major or CRNM bleeding events. Independent predictors of ISTH major or CRNM bleeding events included older age, renal dysfunction, dual oral antiplatelet therapy, smoking history, increased white cell count and coronary revascularisation. CONCLUSIONS: When compared with placebo, the use of apixaban is associated with an important short-term and long-term risk of bleeding in high-risk post-ACS patients, with gastrointestinal bleeding being the most common source of major bleeding. The baseline predictors of major bleeding appear to be consistent with those identified in lower-risk ACS populations with shorter-term follow-up. CLINICAL TRIAL NO: NCT00831441.

Extent of coronary artery disease and outcomes after ticagrelor administration in patients with an acute coronary syndrome: Insights from the PLATelet inhibition and patient Outcomes (PLATO) trial.

BACKGROUND: Extensive coronary artery disease (CAD) is associated with higher risk. In this substudy of the PLATO trial, we examined the effects of randomized treatment on outcome events and safety in relation to the extent of CAD. METHODS: Patients were classified according to presence of extensive CAD (defined as 3-vessel disease, left main disease, or prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery). The trial's primary and secondary end points were compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Among 15,388 study patients for whom the extent of CAD was known, 4,646 (30%) had extensive CAD. Patients with extensive CAD had more high-risk characteristics and experienced more clinical events during follow-up. They were less likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (58% vs 79%, P < .001) but more likely to undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (16% vs 2%, P < .001). Ticagrelor, compared with clopidogrel, reduced the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with extensive CAD (14.9% vs 17.6%, hazard ratio [HR] 0.85 [0.73-0.98]) similar to its reduction in those without extensive CAD (6.8% vs 8.0%, HR 0.85 [0.74-0.98], Pinteraction = .99). Major bleeding was similar with ticagrelor vs clopidogrel among patients with (25.7% vs 25.5%, HR 1.02 [0.90-1.15]) and without (7.3% vs 6.4%, HR 1.14 [0.98-1.33], Pinteraction = .24) extensive CAD. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with extensive CAD have higher rates of recurrent cardiovascular events and bleeding. Ticagrelor reduced ischemic events to a similar extent both in patients with and without extensive CAD, with bleeding rates similar to clopidogrel.

Ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel in patients with non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome with or without revascularization: results from the PLATO trial.

AIMS: The optimal platelet inhibition strategy for ACS patients managed without revascularization is unknown. We aimed to evaluate efficacy and safety of ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel in the non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) subgroup of the PLATO trial, in the total cohort, and in the subgroups managed with and without revascularization within 10 days of randomization. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the primary endpoint of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction/stroke. Among 18 624 PLATO patients, 11 080 (59%) were categorized as NSTE-ACS at randomization. During the initial 10 days, 74% had angiography, 46% PCI, and 5% CABG. In NSTE-ACS patients, the primary endpoint was reduced with ticagrelor vs. clopidogrel [10.0 vs. 12.3%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.83; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.74-0.93], as was myocardial infarction (6.6 vs. 7.7%; HR 0.86; 95% CI = 0.74-0.99), cardiovascular death (3.7 vs. 4.9%; HR 0.77; 95% CI = 0.64-0.93), and all-cause death (4.3 vs. 5.8%; HR 0.76; 95% CI = 0.64-0.90). Major bleeding rate was similar between treatment groups (13.4 vs. 12.6%; HR 1.07; 95% CI = 0.95-1.19), but ticagrelor was associated with an increase in non-CABG major bleeding (4.8 vs. 3.8%; HR 1.28; 95% CI = 1.05-1.56). Within the first 10 days, 5366 (48.4%) patients were managed without revascularization. Regardless of revascularization or not, ticagrelor consistently reduced the primary outcome (HR 0.86 vs. 0.85, interaction P = 0.93), and all-cause death (HR 0.75 vs. 0.73, interaction P = 0.89) with no significant increase in overall major bleeding. CONCLUSION: In patients with NSTE-ACS, benefit of ticagrelor over clopidogrel in reducing ischaemic events and total mortality was consistent with the overall PLATO trial, independent of actually performed revascularization during the initial 10 days.