Socio-economic and ethnic disparities in childhood cancer survival, Yorkshire, UK.

BACKGROUND: Establishing the existence of health inequalities remains a high research and policy agenda item in the United Kingdom. We describe ethnic and socio-economic differences in paediatric cancer survival, focusing specifically on the extent to which disparities have changed over a 20-year period. METHODS: Cancer registration data for 2674 children (0-14 years) in Yorkshire were analysed. Five-year survival estimates by ethnic group (south Asian/non-south Asian) and Townsend deprivation fifths (I-V) were compared over time (1997-2016) for leukaemia, lymphoma, central nervous system (CNS) and other solid tumours. Hazard ratios (HR: 95% CI) from adjusted Cox models quantified the joint effect of ethnicity and deprivation on mortality risk over time, framed through causal interpretation of the deprivation coefficient. RESULTS: Increasing deprivation was associated with significantly higher risk of death for children with leukaemia (1.11 (1.03-1.20)) and all cancers between 1997 and 2001. While we observed a trend towards reducing differences in survival over time in this group, a contrasting trend was observed for CNS tumours whereby sizeable variation in outcome remained for cases diagnosed until 2012. South Asian children with lymphoma had a 15% reduced chance of surviving at least 5 years compared to non-south Asian, across the study period. DISCUSSION: Even in the United Kingdom, with a universally accessible healthcare system, socio-economic and ethnic disparities in childhood cancer survival exist. Findings should inform where resources should be directed to provide all children with an equitable survival outcome following a cancer diagnosis.

Childhood cancer research in Oxford I: the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers.

BACKGROUND: Significant research on the epidemiology and natural history of childhood cancer took place in the Universities of Oxford and Birmingham over sixty years. This is the first of three papers recording this work and describes the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers (OSCC), the largest case-control survey of childhood cancer ever undertaken. METHODS: The OSCC studied deaths in Britain from 1953 to 1981. Parents were interviewed and medical records from ante-natal clinics and treatment centres were followed up and abstracted. The survey left Oxford in 1975 and was run subsequently from Birmingham. The data are now being documented and archived to make them available for future study. RESULTS: Many papers have resulted from this survey, most notably those relating to the association first reported therein between childhood cancer and ante-natal X-raying. This paper is a historical review of the OSCC. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of many analyses of the study, this historic data set has continuing value because of the large number of examples of some very rare tumours and the detailed clinical and family history data that are available; and also because of the possibility of carrying out new analyses to investigate emerging research issues.

Cancer risk in children born after donor ART.

STUDY QUESTION: Do children born after donor ART have an increased risk of developing childhood cancer in comparison to the general population? SUMMARY ANSWER: This study showed no overall increased risk of childhood cancer in individuals born after donor ART. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Most large population-based studies have shown no increase in overall childhood cancer incidence after non-donor ART; however, other studies have suggested small increased risks in specific cancer types, including haematological cancers. Cancer risk specifically in children born after donor ART has not been investigated to date. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This retrospective cohort study utilized record linkage to determine the outcome status of all children born in Great Britain (1992-2008) after donor ART. The cohort included 12 137 members who contributed 95 389 person-years of follow-up (average follow-up 7.86 years). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Records of all children born in Great Britain (England, Wales, Scotland) after all forms of donor ART (1992-2008) were linked to the UK National Registry of Childhood Tumours (NRCT) to determine the number who subsequently developed cancer by 15 years of age, by the end of 2008. Rates of overall and type specific cancer (selected a priori) were compared with age, sex and calendar year standardized population-based rates, stratifying for potential mediating/moderating factors including sex, age at diagnosis, birth weight, multiple births, maternal previous live births, assisted conception type and fresh/ cryopreserved cycles. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In our cohort of 12 137 children born after donor ART (52% male, 55% singleton births), no overall increased risk of cancer was identified. There were 12 cancers detected compared to 14.4 expected (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 0.83; 95% CI 0.43-1.45; P = 0.50). A small, significant increased risk of hepatoblastoma was found, but the numbers and absolute risks were small (<5 cases observed; SIR 10.28; 95% CI 1.25-37.14; P < 0.05). This increased hepatoblastoma risk was associated with low birthweight. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although this study includes a large number of children born after donor ART, the rarity of specific diagnostic subgroups of childhood cancer results in few cases and therefore wide CIs for such outcomes. As this is an observational study, it is not possible to adjust for all potential confounders; we have instead used stratification to explore potential moderating and mediating factors, where data were available. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This is the first study to investigate cancer risk in children born after donor ART. Although based on small numbers, results are reassuring for families and clinicians. The small but significant increased risk of hepatoblastoma detected was associated with low birthweight, a known risk factor for this tumour type. It should be emphasized that the absolute risks are very small. However, on-going investigation with a longer follow-up is needed. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This work was funded by Cancer Research UK (C36038/A12535) and the National Institute for Health Research (405526) and supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children NHS Foundation Trust and University College London. The work of the Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG) was supported by the charity CHILDREN with CANCER UK, the National Cancer Intelligence Network, the Scottish Government and the Department of Health for England and Wales. There are no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Trends in survival for teenagers and young adults with cancer in the UK 1992-2006.

BACKGROUND: Although relatively rare, cancer in teenagers and young adults (TYA) is the most common disease-related cause of death and makes a major contribution to years of life lost in this age group. There is a growing awareness of the distinctive needs of this age group and drive for greater understanding of how outcomes can be improved. We present here the latest TYA survival trends data for the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Using national cancer registry data, we calculated five-year relative survival for all 15-24 year olds diagnosed with cancer or a borderline/benign CNS tumour in the UK during the periods 1992-1996, 1997-2001 and 2002-2006. We analysed trends in survival for all cancers combined and for eighteen specified groups that together represent the majority of TYA cancers. We compared our data with published data for Europe, North America and Australia. RESULTS: Five-year survival for all cancers combined increased from 75.5% in 1992-1996 to 82.2% in 2002-2006 (P<0.001). Statistically significant improvements were seen for all disease groups except osteosarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, non-gonadal and ovarian germ cell tumours and ovarian and thyroid carcinomas. During the earliest time period, females had significantly better survival than males for five of the twelve non-gender-specific disease groups. By the latest period, only melanomas and non-rhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcomas had differential survival by gender. Survival in the UK for the most recent period was generally similar to other comparable countries. CONCLUSION: Five-year survival has improved considerably in the UK for most cancer types. For some disease groups, there has been little progress, either because survival already approaches 100% (e.g. thyroid carcinomas) or, more worryingly for some cancers with poor outcomes, because they remain resistant to existing therapy (e.g. rhabdomyosarcoma). In addition, for a number of specific cancer types and for cancer as a whole males continue to have worse outcomes than females.

Descriptive epidemiology of Kaposi sarcoma in Europe. Report from the RARECARE project.

Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is a virus-related malignancy which most frequently arises in skin, though visceral sites can also be involved. Infection with Kaposi sarcoma herpes virus (KSHV or HHV-8) is required for development of KS. Nowadays, most cases worldwide occur in persons who are immunosuppressed, usually because of HIV infection or as a result of therapy to combat rejection of a transplanted organ, but classic Kaposi sarcoma is predominantly a disease of the elderly without apparent immunosuppression. We analyzed 2667 KS incident cases diagnosed during 1995-2002 and registered by 75 population-based European cancer registries contributing to the RARECARE project. Total crude and age-standardized incidence rate was 0.3 per 100,000 per year with an estimated 1642 new cases per year in the EU27 countries. Age-standardized incidence rate was 0.8 per 100,000 in Southern Europe but below 0.3 per 100,000 in all other regions. The elevated rate in southern Europe was attributable to a combination of classic Kaposi sarcoma in some Mediterranean countries and the relatively high incidence of AIDS in several countries. Five-year relative survival for 2000-2002 by the period method was 75%. More than 10,000 persons were estimated to be alive in Europe at the beginning of 2008 with a past diagnosis of KS. The aetiological link with suppressed immunity means that many people alive following diagnosis of KS suffer comorbidity from a pre-existing condition. While KS is a rare cancer, it has a relatively good prognosis and so the number of people affected by it is quite large. Thus it provides a notable example of the importance of networking in diagnosis, therapy and research for rare cancers.

Leukaemia in young children in the vicinity of British nuclear power plants: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Concern about the risk of leukaemia in children living near nuclear power plants (NPPs) persists. Previous British analyses have been area based and consequently thought to be less effective than case-control studies. METHODS: Cases of childhood leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (LNHL) born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2007, with matched cancer-free controls, were analysed by logistic regression to estimate the risk of residential proximity at birth and diagnosis to the nearest NPP, adjusting for relevant variables. RESULTS: For 9821 children with LNHL under the age of 5 years, the estimated extra risk associated with residential proximity to an NPP at birth was negative-interpolated Odds Ratio (OR) at 5 km was 0.86 (0.49-1.52). The comparison of 10 618 children with LNHL under five with 16 760 similarly aged children with other cancers also gave a negative estimate of the extra risk of residential proximity at diagnosis-interpolated OR at 5 km was 0.86 (0.62-1.18). CONCLUSION: Our results show little evidence of an increase in risk of LNHL to children aged under 5 years from living in the vicinity of an NPP. Risk estimates are incompatible with comparable ones published in a recent German case-control study.

Second and subsequent tumours among 1927 retinoblastoma patients diagnosed in Britain 1951-2004.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma is an eye tumour of childhood that occurs in heritable and non-heritable forms. In the heritable form, there is a predisposition to the development of non-ocular subsequent primary tumours (SPTs). METHODS: This study included 1927 retinoblastoma patients diagnosed in Britain from 1951 to 2004. Ascertainment was through the (UK) National Registry of Childhood Tumours; cases were followed-up for the occurrence of SPTs. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 169 SPTs in 152 patients. The SIR analysis included 145 SPTs with cancer registrations from the years 1971 to 2009. These tumours occurred in 132 patients: 112 of the 781 heritable and 20 of the 1075 (presumed) non-heritable cases under surveillance at the start of this period developed at least one registered SPT. The SIRs for all tumours combined were 13.7 (95% confidence interval 11.3-16.5) in heritable cases and 1.5 (0.9-2.3) in non-heritable cases. The main types of SPT in the heritable cases were leiomyosarcoma, (31 cases; SIR 1018.7 (692.2-1446.0)), osteosarcoma (26 cases; SIR 444.6 (290.4-651.4)), and skin melanoma (12 cases; SIR 18.6 (9.6-32.4)). CONCLUSION: The risk of SPTs in heritable retinoblastoma is extremely high. This has important implications for the clinical follow-up and counselling of survivors and their families.

Descriptive epidemiology of sarcomas in Europe: report from the RARECARE project.

Sarcomas are a heterogeneous group of malignant neoplasms arising from mesenchymal cells which encompass dozens of histological types and can occur in virtually any anatomic site. They form one of the principal groups of rare cancers in Europe as defined in the RARECARE project. We analysed 45,568 incident cases diagnosed during 1995-2002 and registered by 76 population-based cancer registries. Total crude incidence was 5.6 per 100,000 per year with an estimated 27,908 new cases per year in the EU27 countries, of which 84% were soft tissue sarcomas and 14% were bone sarcomas. Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST) were only widely recognised as an entity in the late 1990s and consequently were under-registered. Their true incidence is believed to be about 1.5 per 100,000. Age-standardised incidence of soft tissue sarcomas ranged from 3.3 per 100,000 in Eastern Europe to 4.7 per 100,000 in Northern Europe. About 280,000 persons were estimated to be alive at the beginning of 2003 with a past diagnosis of sarcoma, of which 83% were soft tissue sarcomas and 16% were bone sarcomas. Five-year relative survival for 2000-2002 by the period was 58% for soft tissue sarcomas and 62% for bone sarcomas. The diversity and rarity of sarcomas combined with the quite large number of people affected by them mean that they provide a classic example of the importance of networking in diagnosis, therapy and research for rare cancers.

Effects of changes in diagnosis and registration on time trends in recorded childhood cancer incidence in Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: Increases in recorded childhood cancer incidence are widely reported, but do not necessarily represent real increases in risk. Time trends might conceal underlying steps caused by changes in diagnosis and registration procedures. METHODS: Using records from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours 1966-2005 (N=54650), the age-sex-standardised rate for residents of Great Britain aged under 15 years was calculated by individual year of diagnosis for each cancer subtype, and the average annual percentage change (trend) was assessed. The timing of assumed step changes in rate was estimated by iterative Poisson regression, and compared graphically with the approximate timing of innovations previously identified from published sources. RESULTS: Estimated timing of underlying steps approximately coincided with the following relevant innovations: biochemical assays, mid-1980s (hepatic and germ-cell cancer); diagnostic imaging, mid-1980s to early 1990s (intracranial/intraspinal tumours, neuroblastoma, soft-tissue sarcoma); revised cancer registration scheme, 1971 (leukaemia, bone and soft-tissue sarcoma); mandatory registration, 1993 (intracranial/intraspinal tumours, retinoblastoma, melanoma/carcinoma); cancer registration improvements, 2001 (leukaemia, renal and hepatic cancer). CONCLUSION: While the possibility of some real change in risk cannot be excluded, for many cancer subtypes the estimated timing of underlying step changes in rate appeared to correspond with changes in diagnosis or registration procedures. Childhood cancer may have been considerably under-recorded in the past.

Population survival from childhood cancer in Britain during 1978-2005 by eras of entry to clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Inclusion in clinical trials is generally viewed as best practice for most newly diagnosed childhood cancers, but the impact on population-based survival has rarely been examined. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The population-based data were analysed for 25 853 children (66% of all registered childhood cancers) diagnosed in Britain during 1978-2005 with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, medulloblastoma, neuroblastoma, Wilms tumour, hepatoblastoma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma and germ-cell tumours. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were compared by log-rank tests. Time trends were analysed by Cox regression. Separate analyses were done for children with ALL, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma according to clinically relevant age thresholds. RESULTS: Survival increased significantly during 1978-2005 for every diagnostic category; the annual reduction in risk of death ranged from 2.7% (rhabdomyosarcoma) to 12.0% (gonadal germ-cell tumours). Survival increased steadily between trial eras for ALL (age 1-14 years) and neuroblastoma (age 1-14 years), but changed little since the mid-1980s for medulloblastoma (age 0-2 years), osteosarcoma or Ewing sarcoma. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in survival between trial eras parallel those reported by the relevant clinical trials. The increasing level of participation in trials, facilitated by the organisation of specialist care, has underpinned the substantial improvements in survival seen at the population level.

Evidence for under-diagnosis of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in poorer communities within Great Britain.

BACKGROUND: Recorded incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia tends to be lower in poorer communities. A 'preemptive infection hypothesis' proposes that some children with leukaemia die from infection without diagnosis of leukaemia. Various different blood abnormalities can occur in untreated leukaemia. METHODS: Logistic regression was used to compare pre-treatment blood counts among children aged 1-13 years at recruitment to national clinical trials for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia during 1980-2002 (N=5601), grouped by address at diagnosis within Great Britain into quintiles of the 1991 Carstairs deprivation index. Children combining severe neutropenia (risk of serious infection) with relatively normal haemoglobin and platelet counts (lack of pallor and bleeding) were postulated to be at risk of dying from infection without leukaemia being suspected. A deficit of these children among diagnosed patients from poorer communities was predicted. RESULTS: As predicted, there was a deficit of children at risk of non-diagnosis (two-sided P(trend)=0.004; N=2009), and an excess of children with pallor (P(trend)=0.045; N=5535) and bleeding (P(trend)=0.036; N=5541), among cases from poorer communities. CONCLUSION: Under-diagnosis in poorer communities may have contributed to socioeconomic variation in recorded childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia incidence within Great Britain, and elsewhere. Implications for clinical practice and epidemiological studies should be considered.

Childhood leukaemia and socioeconomic status in England and Wales 1976-2005: evidence of higher incidence in relatively affluent communities persists over time.

BACKGROUND: Record-based studies have generally reported association of higher childhood leukaemia incidence with higher socioeconomic status (SES), but recent findings are less consistent. METHODS: We examined records from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours for evidence of this association in England and Wales during 1976-2005. All eligible leukaemia registrations (N=11940) were grouped by year of diagnosis in decades centred on census years 1981, 1991 and 2001 (N=3748, 3922, 4270, respectively). Using data from the census appropriate to the decade, SES for each case was measured by the child-population-weighted quintile of the Carstairs deprivation index of the census ward containing the address at diagnosis. RESULTS: In each decade, the age-standardised leukaemia rate in the poorest quintile was ∼90% of the rate in the most affluent. Using Poisson regression, the age-adjusted rate ratio per quintile decrease in SES was 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.94-0.98; P<0.001 for trend) in 1976-1985, 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.008) in 1986-1995 and 0.97 (0.95-0.99; P=0.009) in 1996-2005. Similar association was evident for lymphoid leukaemia, the major subgroup (N=9588 in total), but not for acute myeloid (N=1868) or other/unspecified leukaemia (N=484). CONCLUSION: Reported childhood leukaemia incidence in England and Wales continues to be higher in relatively affluent communities. Possible explanations include under-diagnosis of leukaemia in children from poorer communities, and/or association of higher SES with hypothesised risk factors, such as population mixing and delayed exposure to infection.

Childhood cancer registration in Britain: capture-recapture estimates of completeness of ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Completeness of ascertainment is a very important aspect of cancer registration. There is no recent published estimate for childhood cancer in Britain. METHODS: We estimated completeness of ascertainment by the National Registry of Childhood Tumours for cancer diagnosed under age 15 years in residents of Britain during 2003-04. Stratified two-source capture-recapture was applied to notifications from general cancer registries (CRs) and specialist clinicians. Variation in notification patterns was assessed by logistic regression. Results were verified by cross-checking with Hospital Episode Statistics for leukaemia patients from England born in 1998 and diagnosed before 2005. RESULTS: CRs notified 92-96% of registrations, and specialist clinicians 93%. Notification patterns varied slightly according to registry region, age at diagnosis, diagnostic group, socioeconomic status, and whether the patient had died. Irrespective of stratification by these factors, the overall completeness estimate was 99-100% (assuming independence of sources). Estimated completeness was at least 99% within all subgroups, except for one region (Thames 98-99%) and two small diagnostic groups (germ-cell and gonadal cancer 98-99%, melanoma and non-skin cancer 97-98%). INTERPRETATION: The independence assumption cannot be fully justified, as both sources used records from treatment centres. With this caveat, ascertainment of recently diagnosed childhood cancer in Britain appears to be virtually complete.

Non-ocular tumours following retinoblastoma in Great Britain 1951 to 2004.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma occurs in both a heritable and a non-heritable form. In the heritable form, there is a predisposition to the development of non-ocular tumours. OBJECTIVES: To identify the types of non-ocular tumour occurring in retinoblastoma survivors and to produce estimates of risk for these tumours. METHODS: We carried out a cohort study that included 1927 cases of retinoblastoma diagnosed in Great Britain between 1951 and 2004. Cases were ascertained through the National Registry of Childhood Tumours and followed up for the occurrence of non-ocular tumours using the routine notification system based on the National Health Service Central Registers in Britain. RESULTS: Of the 1927 cases, 809 were known to have the heritable form of the disease and 1118 assumed to have the non-heritable form. 102 of the heritable and 13 of those classified as non-heritable developed a non-ocular tumour. The cumulative risk of developing such a tumour 50 years after retinoblastoma diagnosis was 48.3% (95% confidence interval: 38.1 to 59.7%) in the heritable and 4.9% (1.9 to 12.4%) in the non-heritable cases. The main categories of non-ocular tumours observed in the heritable cases were soft-tissue sarcomas (36 of which 21 were leiomyosarcoma), osteosarcoma (32), carcinoma (13), brain and central nervous system tumours (10), melanoma (9), leukaemia (4) and others (4). There were a total of 108 non-ocular tumours in 102 cases. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high risk of non-ocular tumours occurring in survivors of heritable retinoblastoma. These results have important implications for the clinical follow-up and counselling of survivors.

Retinoblastoma in Great Britain 1963-2002.

AIM: This paper describes the epidemiology and family history status of 1601 children with retinoblastoma in Great Britain diagnosed 1963-2002 and summarises the practical consequences for diagnosis and counselling of developments in molecular genetics. METHODS: Incidence rates were analysed according to year of diagnosis and tumour laterality. Cases were classified as heritable or non-heritable on the basis of laterality and family history of the disease. RESULTS: There were 998 unilateral cases, 581 bilateral and 22 of unknown laterality. Bilateral cases tended to be diagnosed at a younger age than unilateral. All bilateral cases are regarded as heritable, and 35% had a family history of the disease. 7% of the unilateral cases had a family history and are therefore heritable. Thus, at least (41%) of our cases are heritable. This is an underestimate, since these data on family history are incomplete. For unilateral cases aged below 1 year, the reported incidence rate increased significantly (p<0.0001) by about 2.5% per year; for the age group 1-4 years, the average increase was about 0.5% per year (not significant).

Retinoblastoma: treatment and survival in Great Britain 1963 to 2002.

AIM: This paper describes the treatment and survival of 1576 children with retinoblastoma in Great Britain diagnosed 1963-2002. METHODS: Survival rates were analysed according to period of diagnosis and tumour laterality. RESULTS: Survival was calculated by calendar period of diagnosis, 1963-1982 and 1983-2002. For both unilateral and bilateral retinoblastoma, survival improved between the two periods. The survival curves for the two periods were significantly different: for unilateral retinoblastoma p<0.00001, for bilateral p<0.01. For unilateral cases, the estimated 5-year survival rates rose from 85% for those diagnosed in 1963-1967 to 97% for those diagnosed in 1998-2002. The equivalent rates for bilateral cases were 88% and 100%. CONCLUSION: Survival rates were already high at the start of the study period. They increased with changes in treatment regimens.

Childhood leukaemia: long-term excess mortality and the proportion 'cured'.

Survival from childhood leukaemia has increased, but the proportion of children cured is unknown. The proportion 'cured' is defined as the proportion of survivors for whom, as a group, there is no longer excess mortality compared to the general population. Average time to cure is defined as the time since diagnosis at which the excess mortality rate has declined to or below a predetermined small value. Data on children diagnosed with leukaemia during 1971-2000 in Great Britain were used to estimate trends in survival, the proportion cured and the average time to cure. Five-year survival for all types of leukaemia combined rose from 33 to 79% by 2000. The percentage cured rose from 25 to 68% by 1995; it is predicted to increase to 73% for those diagnosed more recently. Average time to cure increased from 12 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 11-14) to 19 years (95% CI: 14-26) for lymphoid leukaemia (average annual increase of 0.3 years; P<0.001), but remained at about 5 years for acute nonlymphoblastic leukaemia. The proportion of children cured of leukaemia has risen dramatically, but the period of excess mortality associated with lymphoid leukaemia has also increased, possibly because of late relapse, secondary malignancy and toxicity from treatment.

Population mixing, socioeconomic status and incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in England and Wales: analysis by census ward.

In this population-based study of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) diagnosed among children aged under 15 years in England and Wales during 1986-1995, we analysed incidence at census ward level in relation to a range of variables from the 1991 census, which could be relevant to theories of infectious aetiology. 'Population-mixing' measures, used as surrogates for quantity and diversity of infections entering the community, were calculated from census data on the origins and destinations of migrants in the year before the census. Incidence at ages 1-4 years tended independently to be higher in rural wards, to increase with the diversity of origin wards from which in-migrants had moved during the year before the census, and to be lower in the most deprived areas as categorised by the Carstairs index. This last association was much weaker when urban/rural status and in-migrants' diversity were allowed for. There was no evidence of association with population mixing or deprivation for ALL diagnosed at ages 0 or 5-14 years. The apparent specificity to the young childhood age group suggests that these associations are particularly marked for precursor B-cell ALL, with the disease more likely to occur when delayed exposure to infection leads to increased immunological stress, as predicted by Greaves. The association with diversity of incomers, especially in rural areas, is also consistent with the higher incidence of leukaemia predicted by Kinlen, where population mixing results in below average herd immunity to an infectious agent.

A study of soft tissue sarcomas after childhood cancer in Britain.

Among 16 541 3-year survivors of childhood cancer in Britain, 39 soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) occurred and 1.1 sarcomas were expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio (SIR) of 16.1. When retinoblastomas were excluded from the cohort, the SIR for STSs was 15.9, and the cumulative risk of developing a soft tissue tumour after childhood cancer within 20 years of 3-year survival was 0.23%. In the case-control study, there was a significant excess of STSs in those patients exposed to both radiotherapy (RT) and chemotherapy, which was five times that observed among those not exposed (P=0.02). On the basis of individual radiation dosimetry, there was evidence of a strong dose-response effect with a significant increase in the risk of STS with increasing dose of RT (P<0.001). This effect remained significant in a multivariate model. The adjusted risk in patients exposed to RT doses of over 3000 cGy was over 50 times the risk in the unexposed. There was evidence of a dose-response effect with exposure to alkylating agents, the risk increasing substantially with increasing cumulative dose (P=0.05). This effect remained after adjusting for the effect of radiation exposure.

Geographical patterns of childhood cancer incidence in Europe, 1988-1997. Report from the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project.

Data on more than 50,000 registrations in the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System (ACCIS) database were used to present an overview of regional patterns in childhood cancer incidence in Europe during 1988-1997, and to present additional detail on selected carcinomas whose occurrence in childhood is seldom described because of their rarity. Total age-standardised incidence was 138.5 per million for Europe overall, and varied between regions from 131.1 per million in the British Isles to 160.1 per million in Northern Europe. Incidence varied significantly between regions for nearly all diagnostic groups. The greatest range of regional incidence rates was for central nervous system (CNS) tumours, from 27.0 per million in the West to 43.8 per million in the North. Differences in registration practice for non-malignant tumours account for some of this variation. There was a marked excess of carcinoma in Eastern Europe, which was wholly attributable to the high incidence of thyroid carcinoma in Belarus, though there was also evidence of inter-regional variation attributable to differences in registration practice. The geographical heterogeneity of incidence rates for other diagnostic groups seems more likely to reflect variations in underlying risk.