Longitudinal models for the progression of disease portfolios in a nationwide chronic heart disease population.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: With multimorbidity becoming increasingly prevalent in the ageing population, addressing the epidemiology and development of multimorbidity at a population level is needed. Individuals subject to chronic heart disease are widely multimorbid, and population-wide longitudinal studies on their chronic disease trajectories are few. METHODS: Disease trajectory networks of expected disease portfolio development and chronic condition prevalences were used to map sex and socioeconomic multimorbidity patterns among chronic heart disease patients. Our data source was all Danish individuals aged 18 years and older at some point in 1995-2015, consisting of 6,048,700 individuals. We used algorithmic diagnoses to obtain chronic disease diagnoses and included individuals who received a heart disease diagnosis. We utilized a general Markov framework considering combinations of chronic diagnoses as multimorbidity states. We analyzed the time until a possible new diagnosis, termed the diagnosis postponement time, in addition to transitions to new diagnoses. We modelled the postponement times by exponential models and transition probabilities by logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Among the cohort of 766,596 chronic heart disease diagnosed individuals, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 84.36% and 88.47% for males and females, respectively. We found sex-related differences within the chronic heart disease trajectories. Female trajectories were dominated by osteoporosis and male trajectories by cancer. We found sex important in developing most conditions, especially osteoporosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes. A socioeconomic gradient was observed where diagnosis postponement time increases with educational attainment. Contrasts in disease portfolio development based on educational attainment were found for both sexes, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes more prevalent at lower education levels, compared to higher. CONCLUSIONS: Disease trajectories of chronic heart disease diagnosed individuals are heavily complicated by multimorbidity. Therefore, it is essential to consider and study chronic heart disease, taking into account the individuals' entire disease portfolio.

Changes in Diet and Physical Activity among 18-65-Year-Olds after the First National COVID-19 Lockdown in Denmark.

COVID-19 lockdowns affected everyday life significantly and made it challenging to achieve or maintain a healthy lifestyle. The aim of the present study was to examine longitudinal changes in Danish adults' eating habits and physical activity (PA) assessed during and after the first national lockdown in 2020. Furthermore, changes in body weight were examined during the first lockdown period. The whole diet (semi-quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire), sociodemographic factors, moderate-to-vigorous intensity PA (MVPA), leisure screen time, anthropometrics, change in body weight, and stress level were assessed with a self-administered web-based questionnaire among 839 18-65-year-old Danes during and 5-6 months after the lockdown. Both favorable (decreased intake of saturated fat) and unfavorable (decreased intake of whole grain and fish, and increased intake of red meat) changes were found in the diet after the lockdown, while favorable changes in MVPA (increase in couples) and leisure screen time (decrease with a combined effect of family status and education) were found for PA. More Danish adults reported to gain weight (mean 3.0 kg) than to lose weight (mean 3.5 kg) during the first lockdown period (27% vs. 15%). The study showed favorable changes in PA and mixed results regarding diet among Danish adults after the lockdown. Furthermore, the first lockdown period unfavorably impacted the body weight of many Danes.

Probabilistic approach for assessing cancer risk due to benzo[a]pyrene in barbecued meat: Informing advice for population groups.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of meat prepared by barbecuing is associated with risk of cancer due to formation of carcinogenic compounds including benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Assessment of a population's risk of disease and people's individual probability of disease given specific consumer attributes may direct food safety strategies to where impact on public health is largest. The aim of this study was to propose a model that estimates the risk of cancer caused by exposure to BaP from barbecued meat in Denmark, and to estimate the probability of developing cancer in subgroups of the population given different barbecuing frequencies. METHODS: We developed probabilistic models applying two dimensional Monte Carlo simulation to take into account the variation in exposure given age and sex and in the individuals' sensitivity to develop cancer after exposure to BaP, and the uncertainty in the dose response model. We used the Danish dietary consumption survey, monitoring data of chemical concentrations, data on consumer behavior of frequency of barbecuing, and animal dose response data. FINDINGS: We estimated an average extra lifetime risk of cancer due to BaP from barbecued meat of 6.8 × 10-5 (95% uncertainty interval 2.6 × 10-7 - 7.0 × 10-4) in the Danish population. This corresponds to approximately one to 4,074 extra cancer cases over a lifetime, reflecting wide uncertainty. The impact per barbecuing event on the risk of cancer for men and women of low body weight was higher compared to higher bodyweight. However, the difference due to sex and bodyweight between subgroups are dwarfed by the uncertainty. INTERPRETATION: This study proposes a model that can be applied to other substances and routes of exposure, and allows for deriving the change in risk following a specific change in behaviour. The presented methodology can serve as a valuable tool for risk management, allowing for the formulation of behaviour advice targeted to specific sub-groups in the population.

Effects of Lifestyle on Muscle Strength in a Healthy Danish Population.

BACKGROUND: Lifestyle is expected to influence muscle strength. This study aimed at assessing a possible relationship between smoking, alcohol intake and physical activity, and muscle strength in a healthy Danish population aged 20-79 years. Population study based on data collected from The Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) and measurements of Isokinetic muscle strength from a sub-study of randomly selected healthy participants from CCHS. METHODS: 126 women and 63 men were studied. All participants completed a questionnaire regarding their lifestyle, including physical activity, alcohol intake and smoking habits. Isokinetic muscle strength was measured over the upper extremities (UE), trunk, and lower extremities (LE). Multivariate analyses including all of the variables were carried out. RESULTS: The level of daily physical activity during leisure was positively correlated to muscle strength in the lower extremities (p = 0.03) for women, and lower extremities (p = 0.03) and trunk (p = 0.007) for men. Alcohol Intake was in general not correlated to muscle strength. No clear effect of smoking was seen on muscle strength. CONCLUSION: Our results show that physical activity during leisure is associated with a positive effect on muscle strength in both sexes. When keeping alcohol intake within the recommended limits, alcohol does not seem to affect muscle strength negatively. No effect of smoking on muscle strength was found in our group of healthy subjects. The findings are of importance when considering recommendation on life style when wishing to keeping fit with age to be able to carry out daily activities.

Concurrent elevation of CO2, O3 and temperature severely affects oil quality and quantity in rapeseed.

Plant oil is an essential dietary and bio-energy resource. Despite this, the effects of climate change on plant oil quality remain to be elucidated. The present study is the first to show changes in oil quality and quantity of four rapeseed cultivars in climate scenarios with elevated [CO2], [O3] and temperature (T) combined and as single factors. The combination of environmental factors resembled IPCC's 'business as usual' emission scenario predicted for late this century. Generally, the climate scenarios reduced the average amounts of the six fatty acids (FAs) analysed, though in some treatments single FAs remained unchanged or even increased. Most reduced was the FA essential for human nutrition, C18:3-ω3, which decreased by 39% and 45% in the combined scenarios with elevated [CO2]+T+[O3] and [CO2]+T, respectively. Average oil content decreased 3-17%. When [CO2] and T were elevated concurrently, the seed biomass was reduced by half, doubling the losses in FAs and oil content. This corresponded to a 58% reduction in the oil yield per hectare, and C18:3-ω3 decreased by 77%. Furthermore, the polyunsaturated FAs were significantly decreased. The results indicate undesirable consequences for production and health benefits of rapeseed oil with future climate change. The results also showed strong interactive effects of CO2, T and O3 on oil quality, demonstrating why prediction of climate effects requires experiments with combined factors and should not be based on extrapolation from single factor experiments.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization investigation of potentially pathogenic bacteria involved in neonatal porcine diarrhea.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal diarrhea is a multifactorial condition commonly present on pig farms and leads to economic losses due to increased morbidity and mortality of piglets. Immature immune system and lack of fully established microbiota at birth predispose neonatal piglets to infection with enteric pathogens. The microorganisms that for decades have been associated with enteritis and diarrhea in suckling piglets are: rotavirus A, coronavirus, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Clostridium perfringens type C, Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., Cystoisospora suis and Strongyloides ransomi. However, in recent years, the pig industry has experienced an increased number of neonatal diarrhea cases in which the above mentioned pathogens are no longer detected. Potentially pathogenic bacteria have recently received focus in the research on the possible etiology of neonatal diarrhea not caused by common pathogens. The primary aim of this study was to investigate the role of E. coli, Enterococcus spp., C. perfringens and C. difficile in the pathogenesis of neonatal porcine diarrhea with no established casual agents. Fluorescence in situ hybridization with oligonucleotide probes was applied on the fixed intestinal tissue samples from 51 diarrheic and 50 non-diarrheic piglets collected from four Danish farms during outbreaks of neonatal diarrhea not caused by well-known enteric pathogens. Furthermore, an association between the presence of these bacteria and histological lesions was evaluated. RESULTS: The prevalence of fluorescence signals specific for E. coli, C. perfringens and C. difficile was similar in both groups of piglets. However, Enterococcus spp. was primarily detected in the diarrheic piglets. Furthermore, adherent bacteria were detected in 37 % diarrheic and 14 % non-diarrheic piglets. These bacteria were identified as E. coli and Enterococcus spp. and their presence in the intestinal mucosa was associated with histopathological changes. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that simultaneous colonization of the intestinal mucosa by adherent non-ETEC E. coli and Enterococcus spp. can be involved in the pathogenesis of neonatal porcine diarrhea. These bacteria should be considered in diagnosis of diarrhea in piglets, when detection of common, well-known enteric agents is unsuccessful.