Obesity-related inflammatory protein signature in cardiovascular clinical outcomes: results from the Gutenberg Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate whether an obesity-related inflammatory protein signature (OIPS) is associated with adverse cardiovascular events. METHODS: The Olink Target 96 Inflammation panel was performed in 6662 participants from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study (GHS). The OIPS was selected by a logistic regression model, and its association with cardiovascular outcomes was evaluated by Cox regression analysis. The GHS-derived OIPS was externally validated in the MyoVasc study. RESULTS: The identified OIPS entailed 21 proteins involved in chemokine activity, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) receptor binding, and growth factor receptor binding. The signature revealed a novel positive association of axis inhibition protein 1 with obesity. The OIPS was associated with increased risk of all-cause and cardiac deaths, major adverse cardiovascular events, and incident coronary artery disease, independent of clinical covariates and established risk instruments. A BMI-stratified analysis confirmed the association of OIPS with increased death in those with obesity and overweight and with increased risk for coronary artery disease in those with obesity. The association of OIPS with increased risk of all-cause and cardiac deaths was validated in the MyoVasc cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The OIPS showed a significant association with adverse clinical outcomes, particularly in those with overweight and obesity, and represents a promising tool for identifying patients at higher risk for worse cardiovascular outcomes.

Joint Linkage and Association Analysis Using GENEHUNTER-MODSCORE with an Application to Familial Pancreatic Cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Joint linkage and association (JLA) analysis combines two disease gene mapping strategies: linkage information contained in families and association information contained in populations. Such a JLA analysis can increase mapping power, especially when the evidence for both linkage and association is low to moderate. Similarly, an association analysis based on haplotypes instead of single markers can increase mapping power when the association pattern is complex. METHODS: In this paper, we present an extension to the GENEHUNTER-MODSCORE software package that enables a JLA analysis based on haplotypes and uses information from arbitrary pedigree types and unrelated individuals. Our new JLA method is an extension of the MOD score approach for linkage analysis, which allows the estimation of trait-model and linkage disequilibrium (LD) parameters, i.e., penetrance, disease-allele frequency, and haplotype frequencies. LD is modeled between alleles at a single diallelic disease locus and up to three diallelic test markers. Linkage information is contributed by additional multi-allelic flanking markers. We investigated the statistical properties of our JLA implementation using extensive simulations, and we compared our approach to another commonly used single-marker JLA test. To demonstrate the applicability of our new method in practice, we analyzed pedigree data from the German National Case Collection for Familial Pancreatic Cancer (FaPaCa). RESULTS: Based on the simulated data, we demonstrated the validity of our JLA-MOD score analysis implementation and identified scenarios in which haplotype-based tests outperformed the single-marker test. The estimated trait-model and LD parameters were in good accordance with the simulated values. Our method outperformed another commonly used JLA single-marker test when the LD pattern was complex. The exploratory analysis of the FaPaCa families led to the identification of a promising genetic region on chromosome 22q13.33, which can serve as a starting point for future mutation analysis and molecular research in pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSION: Our newly proposed JLA-MOD score method proves to be a valuable gene mapping and characterization tool, especially when either linkage or association information alone provide insufficient power to identify the disease-causing genetic variants.

Autoantibodies against the chemokine receptor 3 predict cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic inflammation and autoimmunity contribute to cardiovascular (CV) disease. Recently, autoantibodies (aAbs) against the CXC-motif-chemokine receptor 3 (CXCR3), a G protein-coupled receptor with a key role in atherosclerosis, have been identified. The role of anti-CXCR3 aAbs for CV risk and disease is unclear. METHODS: Anti-CXCR3 aAbs were quantified by a commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 5000 participants (availability: 97.1%) of the population-based Gutenberg Health Study with extensive clinical phenotyping. Regression analyses were carried out to identify determinants of anti-CXCR3 aAbs and relevance for clinical outcome (i.e. all-cause mortality, cardiac death, heart failure, and major adverse cardiac events comprising incident coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, and cardiac death). Last, immunization with CXCR3 and passive transfer of aAbs were performed in ApoE(-/-) mice for preclinical validation. RESULTS: The analysis sample included 4195 individuals (48% female, mean age 55.5 ± 11 years) after exclusion of individuals with autoimmune disease, immunomodulatory medication, acute infection, and history of cancer. Independent of age, sex, renal function, and traditional CV risk factors, increasing concentrations of anti-CXCR3 aAbs translated into higher intima-media thickness, left ventricular mass, and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Adjusted for age and sex, anti-CXCR3 aAbs above the 75th percentile predicted all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval) 1.25 (1.02, 1.52), P = .029], driven by excess cardiac mortality [HR 2.51 (1.21, 5.22), P = .014]. A trend towards a higher risk for major adverse cardiac events [HR 1.42 (1.0, 2.0), P = .05] along with increased risk of incident heart failure [HR per standard deviation increase of anti-CXCR3 aAbs: 1.26 (1.02, 1.56), P = .03] may contribute to this observation. Targeted proteomics revealed a molecular signature of anti-CXCR3 aAbs reflecting immune cell activation and cytokine-cytokine receptor interactions associated with an ongoing T helper cell 1 response. Finally, ApoE(-/-) mice immunized against CXCR3 displayed increased anti-CXCR3 aAbs and exhibited a higher burden of atherosclerosis compared to non-immunized controls, correlating with concentrations of anti-CXCR3 aAbs in the passive transfer model. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals free of autoimmune disease, anti-CXCR3 aAbs were abundant, related to CV end-organ damage, and predicted all-cause death as well as cardiac morbidity and mortality in conjunction with the acceleration of experimental atherosclerosis.

Targeted long-read sequencing of the Ewing sarcoma 6p25.1 susceptibility locus identifies germline-somatic interactions with EWSR1-FLI1 binding.

Ewing sarcoma (EwS) is a rare bone and soft tissue malignancy driven by chromosomal translocations encoding chimeric transcription factors, such as EWSR1-FLI1, that bind GGAA motifs forming novel enhancers that alter nearby expression. We propose that germline microsatellite variation at the 6p25.1 EwS susceptibility locus could impact downstream gene expression and EwS biology. We performed targeted long-read sequencing of EwS blood DNA to characterize variation and genomic features important for EWSR1-FLI1 binding. We identified 50 microsatellite alleles at 6p25.1 and observed that EwS-affected individuals had longer alleles (>135 bp) with more GGAA repeats. The 6p25.1 GGAA microsatellite showed chromatin features of an EWSR1-FLI1 enhancer and regulated expression of RREB1, a transcription factor associated with RAS/MAPK signaling. RREB1 knockdown reduced proliferation and clonogenic potential and reduced expression of cell cycle and DNA replication genes. Our integrative analysis at 6p25.1 details increased binding of longer GGAA microsatellite alleles with acquired EWSR-FLI1 to promote Ewing sarcomagenesis by RREB1-mediated proliferation.

Proteomics biomarker discovery for individualized prevention of familial pancreatic cancer using statistical learning.

BACKGROUND: The low five-year survival rate of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and the low diagnostic rate of early-stage PDAC via imaging highlight the need to discover novel biomarkers and improve the current screening procedures for early diagnosis. Familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) describes the cases of PDAC that are present in two or more individuals within a circle of first-degree relatives. Using innovative high-throughput proteomics, we were able to quantify the protein profiles of individuals at risk from FPC families in different potential pre-cancer stages. However, the high-dimensional proteomics data structure challenges the use of traditional statistical analysis tools. Hence, we applied advanced statistical learning methods to enhance the analysis and improve the results' interpretability. METHODS: We applied model-based gradient boosting and adaptive lasso to deal with the small, unbalanced study design via simultaneous variable selection and model fitting. In addition, we used stability selection to identify a stable subset of selected biomarkers and, as a result, obtain even more interpretable results. In each step, we compared the performance of the different analytical pipelines and validated our approaches via simulation scenarios. RESULTS: In the simulation study, model-based gradient boosting showed a more accurate prediction performance in the small, unbalanced, and high-dimensional datasets than adaptive lasso and could identify more relevant variables. Furthermore, using model-based gradient boosting, we discovered a subset of promising serum biomarkers that may potentially improve the current screening procedure of FPC. CONCLUSION: Advanced statistical learning methods helped us overcome the shortcomings of an unbalanced study design in a valuable clinical dataset. The discovered serum biomarkers provide us with a clear direction for further investigations and more precise clinical hypotheses regarding the development of FPC and optimal strategies for its early detection.

Systematic multi-omics cell line profiling uncovers principles of Ewing sarcoma fusion oncogene-mediated gene regulation.

Ewing sarcoma (EwS) is characterized by EWSR1-ETS fusion transcription factors converting polymorphic GGAA microsatellites (mSats) into potent neo-enhancers. Although the paucity of additional mutations makes EwS a genuine model to study principles of cooperation between dominant fusion oncogenes and neo-enhancers, this is impeded by the limited number of well-characterized models. Here we present the Ewing Sarcoma Cell Line Atlas (ESCLA), comprising whole-genome, DNA methylation, transcriptome, proteome, and chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-seq) data of 18 cell lines with inducible EWSR1-ETS knockdown. The ESCLA shows hundreds of EWSR1-ETS-targets, the nature of EWSR1-ETS-preferred GGAA mSats, and putative indirect modes of EWSR1-ETS-mediated gene regulation, converging in the duality of a specific but plastic EwS signature. We identify heterogeneously regulated EWSR1-ETS-targets as potential prognostic EwS biomarkers. Our freely available ESCLA (http://r2platform.com/escla/) is a rich resource for EwS research and highlights the power of comprehensive datasets to unravel principles of heterogeneous gene regulation by chimeric transcription factors.

Cardiovascular profiling in the diabetic continuum: results from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study.

AIMS: To assess the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prediabetes in the general population and to investigate the associated cardiovascular burden and clinical outcome. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study sample comprised 15,010 individuals aged 35-74 years of the population-based Gutenberg Health Study. Subjects were classified into euglycaemia, prediabetes and T2DM according to clinical and metabolic (HbA1c) information. The prevalence of prediabetes was 9.5% (n = 1415) and of T2DM 8.9% (n = 1316). Prediabetes and T2DM showed a significantly increased prevalence ratio (PR) for age, obesity, active smoking, dyslipidemia, and arterial hypertension compared to euglycaemia (for all, P < 0.0001). In a robust Poisson regression analysis, prediabetes was established as an independent predictor of clinically-prevalent cardiovascular disease (PRprediabetes 1.20, 95% CI 1.07-1.35, P = 0.002) and represented as a risk factor for asymptomatic cardiovascular organ damage independent of traditional risk factors (PR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.08, P = 0.025). Prediabetes was associated with a 1.5-fold increased 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease compared to euglycaemia. In Cox regression analysis, prediabetes (HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.76-2.51, P < 0.0001) and T2DM (HR 4.28, 95% CI 3.73-4.92, P < 0.0001) indicated for an increased risk of death. After adjustment for age, sex and traditional cardiovascular risk factors, only T2DM (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.63-2.20, P < 0.0001) remained independently associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Besides T2DM, also prediabetes inherits a significant cardiovascular burden, which translates into poor clinical outcome and indicates the need for new concepts regarding the prevention of cardiometabolic disorders.

Right atrium size in the general population.

Echocardiography is the most common routine cardiac imaging method. Nevertheless, only few data about sex-specific reference limits for right atrium (RA) dimensions are available. Transthoracic echocardiographic RA measurements were studied in 9511 participants of the Gutenberg-Health-Study. A reference sample of 1942 cardiovascular healthy subjects without chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was defined. We assessed RA dimensions and sex-specific reference limits were defined using the 95th percentile of the reference sample. Results showed sex-specific differences with larger RA dimensions in men that were attenuated by standardization for body-height. RA-volume was 20.2 ml/m in women (5th-95th: 12.7-30.4 ml/m) and 26.1 ml/m in men (5th-95th: 16.0-40.5 ml/m). Multivariable regressions identified body-mass-index (BMI), coronary artery disease (CAD), chronic heart failure (CHF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) as independent key correlates of RA-volume in both sexes. All-cause mortality after median follow-up-period of 10.7 (9.81/11.6) years was higher in individuals who had RA volume/height outside the 95% reference limit (HR 1.70 [95%CI 1.29-2.23], P = 0.00014)). Based on a large community-based sample, we present sex-specific reference-values for RA dimensions normalized for height. RA-volume varies with BMI, CHF, CAD and AF in both sexes. Individuals with RA-volume outside the reference limit had a 1.7-fold higher mortality than those within reference limits.

Genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility loci for acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematological malignancy with an undefined heritable risk. Here we perform a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies, with replication in a fourth study, incorporating a total of 4018 AML cases and 10488 controls. We identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for AML at 11q13.2 (rs4930561; P = 2.15 × 10-8; KMT5B). We also identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for the cytogenetically normal AML sub-group (N = 1287) at 6p21.32 (rs3916765; P = 1.51 × 10-10; HLA). Our results inform on AML etiology and identify putative functional genes operating in histone methylation (KMT5B) and immune function (HLA).

Combinations of Low-Frequency Genetic Variants Might Predispose to Familial Pancreatic Cancer.

Familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) is an established but rare inherited tumor syndrome that accounts for approximately 5% of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) cases. No major causative gene defect has yet been identified, but germline mutations in predisposition genes BRCA1/2, CDKN2A and PALB2 could be detected in 10-15% of analyzed families. Thus, the genetic basis of disease susceptibility in the majority of FPC families remains unknown. In an attempt to identify new candidate genes, we performed whole-genome sequencing on affected patients from 15 FPC families, without detecting BRCA1/2, CDKN2A or PALB2 mutations, using an Illumina based platform. Annotations from CADD, PolyPhen-2, SIFT, Mutation Taster and PROVEAN were used to assess the potential impact of a variant on the function of a gene. Variants that did not segregate with pancreatic disease in respective families were excluded. Potential predisposing candidate genes ATM, SUFU, DAB1, POLQ, FGFBP3, MAP3K3 and ACAD9 were identified in 7 of 15 families. All identified gene mutations segregated with pancreatic disease, but sometimes with incomplete penetrance. An analysis of up to 46 additional FPC families revealed that the identified gene mutations appeared to be unique in most cases, despite a potentially deleterious ACAD9 Ala326Thr germline variant, which occurred in 4 (8.7%) of 46 FPC families. Notably, affected PDAC patients within a family carried identical germline mutations in up to three different genes, e.g., DAB1, POLQ and FGFBP3. These results support the hypothesis that FPC is a highly heterogeneous polygenetic disease caused by low-frequency or rare variants.

Protein expression profiling suggests relevance of noncanonical pathways in isolated pulmonary embolism.

Patients with isolated pulmonary embolism (PE) have a distinct clinical profile from those with deep vein thrombosis (DVT)-associated PE, with more pulmonary conditions and atherosclerosis. These findings suggest a distinct molecular pathophysiology and the potential involvement of alternative pathways in isolated PE. To test this hypothesis, data from 532 individuals from the Genotyping and Molecular Phenotyping of Venous ThromboEmbolism Project, a multicenter prospective cohort study with extensive biobanking, were analyzed. Targeted, high-throughput proteomics, machine learning, and bioinformatic methods were applied to contrast the acute-phase plasma proteomes of isolated PE patients (n = 96) against those of patients with DVT-associated PE (n = 276) or isolated DVT (n = 160). This resulted in the identification of shared molecular processes between PE phenotypes, as well as an isolated PE-specific protein signature. Shared processes included upregulation of inflammation, response to oxidative stress, and the loss of pulmonary surfactant. The isolated PE-specific signature consisted of 5 proteins: interferon-γ, glial cell line-derived neurotrophic growth factor, polypeptide N-acetylgalactosaminyltransferase 3, peptidyl arginine deiminase type-2, and interleukin-15 receptor subunit α. These proteins were orthogonally validated using cis protein quantitative trait loci. External replication in an independent population-based cohort (n = 5778) further validated the proteomic results and showed that they were prognostic for incident primary isolated PE in individuals without history of VTE (median time to event: 2.9 years; interquartile range: 1.6-4.2 years), supporting their possible involvement in the early pathogenesis. This study has identified molecular overlaps and differences between VTE phenotypes. In particular, the results implicate noncanonical pathways more commonly associated with respiratory and atherosclerotic disease in the acute pathophysiology of isolated PE.

Genome-wide association study identifies novel susceptibility loci for KIT D816V positive mastocytosis.

Mastocytosis is a rare myeloid neoplasm characterized by uncontrolled expansion of mast cells, driven in >80% of affected individuals by acquisition of the KIT D816V mutation. To explore the hypothesis that inherited variation predisposes to mastocytosis, we performed a two-stage genome-wide association study, analyzing 1,035 individuals with KIT D816V positive disease and 17,960 healthy control individuals from five European populations. After quality control, we tested 592,007 SNPs at stage 1 and 75 SNPs at stage 2 for association by using logistic regression and performed a fixed effects meta-analysis to combine evidence across the two stages. From the meta-analysis, we identified three intergenic SNPs associated with mastocytosis that achieved genome-wide significance without heterogeneity between cohorts: rs4616402 (pmeta = 1.37 × 10-15, OR = 1.52), rs4662380 (pmeta = 2.11 × 10-12, OR = 1.46), and rs13077541 (pmeta = 2.10 × 10-9, OR = 1.33). Expression quantitative trait analyses demonstrated that rs4616402 is associated with the expression of CEBPA (peQTL = 2.3 × 10-14), a gene encoding a transcription factor known to play a critical role in myelopoiesis. The role of the other two SNPs is less clear: rs4662380 is associated with expression of the long non-coding RNA gene TEX41 (peQTL = 2.55 × 10-11), whereas rs13077541 is associated with the expression of TBL1XR1, which encodes transducin (ß)-like 1 X-linked receptor 1 (peQTL = 5.70 × 10-8). In individuals with available data and non-advanced disease, rs4616402 was associated with age at presentation (p = 0.009; beta = 4.41; n = 422). Additional focused analysis identified suggestive associations between mastocytosis and genetic variation at TERT, TPSAB1/TPSB2, and IL13. These findings demonstrate that multiple germline variants predispose to KIT D816V positive mastocytosis and provide novel avenues for functional investigation.

annoFuse: an R Package to annotate, prioritize, and interactively explore putative oncogenic RNA fusions.

BACKGROUND: Gene fusion events are significant sources of somatic variation across adult and pediatric cancers and are some of the most clinically-effective therapeutic targets, yet low consensus of RNA-Seq fusion prediction algorithms makes therapeutic prioritization difficult. In addition, events such as polymerase read-throughs, mis-mapping due to gene homology, and fusions occurring in healthy normal tissue require informed filtering, making it difficult for researchers and clinicians to rapidly discern gene fusions that might be true underlying oncogenic drivers of a tumor and in some cases, appropriate targets for therapy. RESULTS: We developed annoFuse, an R package, and shinyFuse, a companion web application, to annotate, prioritize, and explore biologically-relevant expressed gene fusions, downstream of fusion calling. We validated annoFuse using a random cohort of TCGA RNA-Seq samples (N = 160) and achieved a 96% sensitivity for retention of high-confidence fusions (N = 603). annoFuse uses FusionAnnotator annotations to filter non-oncogenic and/or artifactual fusions. Then, fusions are prioritized if previously reported in TCGA and/or fusions containing gene partners that are known oncogenes, tumor suppressor genes, COSMIC genes, and/or transcription factors. We applied annoFuse to fusion calls from pediatric brain tumor RNA-Seq samples (N = 1028) provided as part of the Open Pediatric Brain Tumor Atlas (OpenPBTA) Project to determine recurrent fusions and recurrently-fused genes within different brain tumor histologies. annoFuse annotates protein domains using the PFAM database, assesses reciprocality, and annotates gene partners for kinase domain retention. As a standard function, reportFuse enables generation of a reproducible R Markdown report to summarize filtered fusions, visualize breakpoints and protein domains by transcript, and plot recurrent fusions within cohorts. Finally, we created shinyFuse for algorithm-agnostic interactive exploration and plotting of gene fusions. CONCLUSIONS: annoFuse provides standardized filtering and annotation for gene fusion calls from STAR-Fusion and Arriba by merging, filtering, and prioritizing putative oncogenic fusions across large cancer datasets, as demonstrated here with data from the OpenPBTA project. We are expanding the package to be widely-applicable to other fusion algorithms and expect annoFuse to provide researchers a method for rapidly evaluating, prioritizing, and translating fusion findings in patient tumors.

Low-frequency variation near common germline susceptibility loci are associated with risk of Ewing sarcoma.

BACKGROUND: Ewing sarcoma (EwS) is a rare, aggressive solid tumor of childhood, adolescence and young adulthood associated with pathognomonic EWSR1-ETS fusion oncoproteins altering transcriptional regulation. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 6 common germline susceptibility loci but have not investigated low-frequency inherited variants with minor allele frequencies below 5% due to limited genotyped cases of this rare tumor. METHODS: We investigated the contribution of rare and low-frequency variation to EwS susceptibility in the largest EwS genome-wide association study to date (733 EwS cases and 1,346 unaffected controls of European ancestry). RESULTS: We identified two low-frequency variants, rs112837127 and rs2296730, on chromosome 20 that were associated with EwS risk (OR = 0.186 and 2.038, respectively; P-value < 5×10-8) and located near previously reported common susceptibility loci. After adjusting for the most associated common variant at the locus, only rs112837127 remained a statistically significant independent signal (OR = 0.200, P-value = 5.84×10-8). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest rare variation residing on common haplotypes are important contributors to EwS risk. IMPACT: Motivate future targeted sequencing studies for a comprehensive evaluation of low-frequency and rare variation around common EwS susceptibility loci.

Sorafenib Maintenance After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Acute Myeloid Leukemia With FLT3-Internal Tandem Duplication Mutation (SORMAIN).

PURPOSE: Despite undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT), patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with internal tandem duplication mutation in the FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3 gene (FLT3-ITD) have a poor prognosis, frequently relapse, and die as a result of AML. It is currently unknown whether a maintenance therapy using FLT3 inhibitors, such as the multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor sorafenib, improves outcome after HCT. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind phase II trial (SORMAIN; German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00000591), 83 adult patients with FLT3-ITD-positive AML in complete hematologic remission after HCT were randomly assigned to receive for 24 months either the multitargeted and FLT3-kinase inhibitor sorafenib (n = 43) or placebo (n = 40 placebo). Relapse-free survival (RFS) was the primary endpoint of this trial. Relapse was defined as relapse or death, whatever occurred first. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 41.8 months, the hazard ratio (HR) for relapse or death in the sorafenib group versus placebo group was 0.39 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.85; log-rank P = .013). The 24-month RFS probability was 53.3% (95% CI, 0.36 to 0.68) with placebo versus 85.0% (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.93) with sorafenib (HR, 0.256; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.65; log-rank P = .002). Exploratory data show that patients with undetectable minimal residual disease (MRD) before HCT and those with detectable MRD after HCT derive the strongest benefit from sorafenib. CONCLUSION: Sorafenib maintenance therapy reduces the risk of relapse and death after HCT for FLT3-ITD-positive AML.

Methods for Evaluating Causality in Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: In clinical medical research, causality is demonstrated b controlled trials (RCTs). Often, however, an RCT cannot be conducted for ethical reasons, and sometimes for practical reasons as well. In such cases, knowledge can be derived from an observational study instead. In this article, we present two methods that have not been widely used in medical research to date. METHODS: The methods of assessing causal inferences in observational studies are described on the basis of publications retrieved by a selective literature search. RESULTS: Two relatively new approaches-regression-discontinuity methods and interrupted time series-can be used to demonstrate a causal relationship under certain circumstances. The regression-discontinuity design is a quasi-experimental approach that can be applied if a continuous assignment variable is used with a threshold value. Patients are assigned to different treatment schemes on the basis of the threshold value. For assignment variables that are subject to random measurement error, it is assumed that, in a small interval around a threshold value, e.g., cholesterol values of 160 mg/dL, subjects are assigned essentially at random to one of two treatment groups. If patients with a value above the threshold are given a certain treatment, those with values below the threshold can serve as control group. Interrupted time series are a special type of regression-discontinuity design in which time is the assignment variable, and the threshold is a cutoff point. This is often an external event, such as the imposition of a smoking ban. A before-and-after comparison can be used to determine the effect of the intervention (e.g., the smoking ban) on health parameters such as the frequency of cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSION: The approaches described here can be used to derive causal inferences ies. They should only be applied after the prerequisites for their use have been carefully checked.

Epidemiologic Risk Factors in a Comparison of a Barrett Esophagus Registry (BarrettNET) and a Case-Control Population in Germany.

Endoscopic screening for Barrett's esophagus as the major precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma is mostly offered to patients with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, other epidemiologic risk factors might affect the development of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Therefore, efforts to improve the efficiency of screening to find the Barrett's esophagus population "at risk" compared with the normal population are needed. In a cross-sectional analysis, we compared 587 patients with Barrett's esophagus from the multicenter German BarrettNET registry to 1976 healthy subjects from the population-based German KORA cohort, with and without GERD symptoms. Data on demographic and lifestyle factors, including age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical activity, and symptoms were collected in a standardized epidemiologic survey. Increased age, male gender, smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, low physical activity, low health status, and GERD symptoms were significantly associated with Barrett's esophagus. Surprisingly, among patients stratified for GERD symptoms, these associations did not change. Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors as well as GERD symptoms were associated with Barrett's esophagus development in Germany, suggesting that a combination of risk factors could be useful in developing individualized screening efforts for patients with Barrett's esophagus and GERD in Germany.

Variants associated with HHIP expression have sex-differential effects on lung function.

Background: Lung function is highly heritable and differs between the sexes throughout life. However, little is known about sex-differential genetic effects on lung function. We aimed to conduct the first genome-wide genotype-by-sex interaction study on lung function to identify genetic effects that differ between males and females. Methods: We tested for interactions between 7,745,864 variants and sex on spirometry-based measures of lung function in UK Biobank (N=303,612), and sought replication in 75,696 independent individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Results: Five independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed genome-wide significant (P<5x10 -8) interactions with sex on lung function, and 21 showed suggestive interactions (P<1x10 -6). The strongest signal, from rs7697189 (chr4:145436894) on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1) (P=3.15x10 -15), was replicated (P=0.016) in SpiroMeta. The C allele increased FEV 1 more in males (untransformed FEV 1 ß=0.028 [SE 0.0022] litres) than females (ß=0.009 [SE 0.0014] litres), and this effect was not accounted for by differential effects on height, smoking or pubertal age. rs7697189 resides upstream of the hedgehog-interacting protein ( HHIP) gene and was previously associated with lung function and HHIP lung expression. We found HHIP expression was significantly different between the sexes (P=6.90x10 -6), but we could not detect sex differential effects of rs7697189 on expression. Conclusions: We identified a novel genotype-by-sex interaction at a putative enhancer region upstream of the HHIP gene. Establishing the mechanism by which HHIP SNPs have different effects on lung function in males and females will be important for our understanding of lung health and diseases in both sexes.

Integrative clinical transcriptome analysis reveals TMPRSS2-ERG dependency of prognostic biomarkers in prostate adenocarcinoma.

In prostate adenocarcinoma (PCa), distinction between indolent and aggressive disease is challenging. Around 50% of PCa are characterized by TMPRSS2-ERG (T2E)-fusion oncoproteins defining two molecular subtypes (T2E-positive/negative). However, current prognostic tests do not differ between both molecular subtypes, which might affect outcome prediction. To investigate gene-signatures associated with metastasis in T2E-positive and T2E-negative PCa independently, we integrated tumor transcriptomes and clinicopathological data of two cohorts (total n = 783), and analyzed metastasis-associated gene-signatures regarding the T2E-status. Here, we show that the prognostic value of biomarkers in PCa critically depends on the T2E-status. Using gene-set enrichment analyses, we uncovered that metastatic T2E-positive and T2E-negative PCa are characterized by distinct gene-signatures. In addition, by testing genes shared by several functional gene-signatures for their association with event-free survival in a validation cohort (n = 272), we identified five genes (ASPN, BGN, COL1A1, RRM2 and TYMS)-three of which are included in commercially available prognostic tests-whose high expression was significantly associated with worse outcome exclusively in T2E-negative PCa. Among these genes, RRM2 and TYMS were validated by immunohistochemistry in another validation cohort (n = 135), and several of them proved to add prognostic information to current clinicopathological predictors, such as Gleason score, exclusively for T2E-negative patients. No prognostic biomarkers were identified exclusively for T2E-positive tumors. Collectively, our study discovers that the T2E-status, which is per se not a strong prognostic biomarker, crucially determines the prognostic value of other biomarkers. Our data suggest that the molecular subtype needs to be considered when applying prognostic biomarkers for outcome prediction in PCa.