Cost-Effectiveness of Plasma Microbial Cell-Free DNA Sequencing When Added to Usual Care Diagnostic Testing for Immunocompromised Host Pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Immunocompromised host pneumonia (ICHP) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality, yet usual care (UC) diagnostic tests often fail to identify an infectious etiology. A US-based, multicenter study (PICKUP) among ICHP patients with hematological malignancies, including hematological cell transplant recipients, showed that plasma microbial cell-free DNA (mcfDNA) sequencing provided significant additive diagnostic value. AIM: The objective of this study was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of adding mcfDNA sequencing to UC diagnostic testing for hospitalized ICHP patients. METHODS: A semi-Markov model was utilized from the US third-party payer's perspective such that only direct costs were included, using a lifetime time horizon with discount rates of 3% for costs and benefits. Three comparators were considered: (1) All UC, which included non-invasive (NI) and invasive testing and early bronchoscopy; (2) All UC & mcfDNA; and (3) NI UC & mcfDNA & conditional UC Bronch (later bronchoscopy if the initial tests are negative). The model considered whether a probable causative infectious etiology was identified and if the patient received appropriate antimicrobial treatment through expert adjudication, and if the patient died in-hospital. The primary endpoints were total costs, life-years (LYs), equal value life-years (evLYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY. Extensive scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were conducted. RESULTS: At a price of $2000 (2023 USD) for the plasma mcfDNA, All UC & mcfDNA was more costly ($165,247 vs $153,642) but more effective (13.39 vs 12.47 LYs gained; 10.20 vs 9.42 evLYs gained; 10.11 vs 9.42 QALYs gained) compared to All UC alone, giving a cost/QALY of $16,761. NI UC & mcfDNA & conditional UC Bronch was also more costly ($162,655 vs $153,642) and more effective (13.19 vs 12.47 LYs gained; 9.96 vs 9.42 evLYs gained; 9.96 vs 9.42 QALYs gained) compared to All UC alone, with a cost/QALY of $16,729. The PSA showed that above a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY, All UC & mcfDNA was the preferred scenario on cost-effectiveness grounds (as it provides the most QALYs gained). Further scenario analyses found that All UC & mcfDNA always improved patient outcomes but was not cost saving, even when the price of mcfDNA was set to $0. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence available at the time of this analysis, this CEA suggests that mcfDNA may be cost-effective when added to All UC, as well as in a scenario using conditional bronchoscopy when NI testing fails to identify a probable infectious etiology for ICHP. Adding mcfDNA testing to UC diagnostic testing should allow more patients to receive appropriate therapy earlier and improve patient outcomes.

Accuracy of glomerular filtration rate estimation using creatinine and cystatin C for identifying and monitoring moderate chronic kidney disease: the eGFR-C study.

Background: Estimation of glomerular filtration rate using equations based on creatinine is widely used to manage chronic kidney disease. In the UK, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation is recommended. Other published equations using cystatin C, an alternative marker of kidney function, have not gained widespread clinical acceptance. Given higher cost of cystatin C, its clinical utility should be validated before widespread introduction into the NHS. Objectives: Primary objectives were to: (1) compare accuracy of glomerular filtration rate equations at baseline and longitudinally in people with stage 3 chronic kidney disease, and test whether accuracy is affected by ethnicity, diabetes, albuminuria and other characteristics; (2) establish the reference change value for significant glomerular filtration rate changes; (3) model disease progression; and (4) explore comparative cost-effectiveness of kidney disease monitoring strategies. Design: A longitudinal, prospective study was designed to: (1) assess accuracy of glomerular filtration rate equations at baseline (n = 1167) and their ability to detect change over 3 years (n = 875); (2) model disease progression predictors in 278 individuals who received additional measurements; (3) quantify glomerular filtration rate variability components (n = 20); and (4) develop a measurement model analysis to compare different monitoring strategy costs (n = 875). Setting: Primary, secondary and tertiary care. Participants: Adults (≥ 18 years) with stage 3 chronic kidney disease. Interventions: Estimated glomerular filtration rate using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations. Main outcome measures: Measured glomerular filtration rate was the reference against which estimating equations were compared with accuracy being expressed as P30 (percentage of values within 30% of reference) and progression (variously defined) studied as sensitivity/specificity. A regression model of disease progression was developed and differences for risk factors estimated. Biological variation components were measured and the reference change value calculated. Comparative costs of monitoring with different estimating equations modelled over 10 years were calculated. Results: Accuracy (P30) of all equations was ≥ 89.5%: the combined creatinine-cystatin equation (94.9%) was superior (p < 0.001) to other equations. Within each equation, no differences in P30 were seen across categories of age, gender, diabetes, albuminuria, body mass index, kidney function level and ethnicity. All equations showed poor (< 63%) sensitivity for detecting patients showing kidney function decline crossing clinically significant thresholds (e.g. a 25% decline in function). Consequently, the additional cost of monitoring kidney function annually using a cystatin C-based equation could not be justified (incremental cost per patient over 10 years = £43.32). Modelling data showed association between higher albuminuria and faster decline in measured and creatinine-estimated glomerular filtration rate. Reference change values for measured glomerular filtration rate (%, positive/negative) were 21.5/-17.7, with lower reference change values for estimated glomerular filtration rate. Limitations: Recruitment of people from South Asian and African-Caribbean backgrounds was below the study target. Future work: Prospective studies of the value of cystatin C as a risk marker in chronic kidney disease should be undertaken. Conclusions: Inclusion of cystatin C in glomerular filtration rate-estimating equations marginally improved accuracy but not detection of disease progression. Our data do not support cystatin C use for monitoring of glomerular filtration rate in stage 3 chronic kidney disease. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN42955626. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 11/103/01) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 35. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Chronic kidney disease, which affects approximately 14% of the adult population, often has no symptoms but, in some people, may later develop into kidney failure. Kidney disease is most often detected using a blood test called creatinine. Creatinine does not identify everyone with kidney disease, or those most likely to develop more serious kidney disease. An alternative blood test called cystatin C may be more accurate, but it is more expensive than the creatinine test. We compared the accuracy of these two tests in more than 1000 people with moderate kidney disease. Participants were tested over 3 years to see if the tests differed in their ability to detect worsening kidney function. We also wanted to identify risk factors associated with loss of kidney function, and how much the tests normally vary to better understand what results mean. We compared the accuracy and costs of monitoring people with the two markers. Cystatin C was found slightly more accurate than the creatinine test at estimating kidney function when comparing the baseline single measurements (95% accurate compared to 90%), but not at detecting worsening function over time. This means that the additional cost of monitoring people over time with cystatin C to detect kidney disease progression could not be justified. Kidney test results could vary by up to 20% between tests without necessarily implying changes in underlying kidney function ­ this is the normal level of individual variation. Cystatin C marginally improved accuracy of kidney function testing but not ability to detect worsening kidney function. Cystatin C improves identification of moderate chronic kidney disease, but our results do not support its use for routine monitoring of kidney function in such patients.

Optical penetration models for practical prediction of femtosecond laser ablation of dental hard tissue.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and practically test high-precision femtosecond laser ablation models for dental hard tissue that are useful for detailed planning of automated laser dental restorative treatment. METHODS: Analytical models are proposed, derived, and demonstrated for practical calculation of ablation rates, ablation efficiency and ablated morphology of human dental enamel and dentin using femtosecond lasers. The models assume an effective optical attenuation coefficient for the irradiated material. To achieve ablation, it is necessary for the local energy density of the attenuated pulse in the hard tissue to surpass a predefined threshold that signifies the minimum energy density required for material ionization. A 1029 nm, 40 W carbide 275 fs laser was used to ablate sliced adult human teeth and generate the data necessary for testing the models. The volume of material removed, and the shape of the ablated channel were measured using optical profilometry. RESULTS: The models fit with the measured ablation efficiency curve against laser fluence for both enamel and dentin, correctly capturing the fluence for optimum ablation and the volume of ablated material per pulse. The detailed shapes of a 400-micrometer wide channel and a single-pulse width channel are accurately predicted using the superposition of the analytical result for a single pulse. CONCLUSIONS: The findings have value for planning automated dental restorative treatment using femtosecond lasers. The measurements and analysis give estimates of the optical properties of enamel and dentin irradiated with an infrared femtosecond laser at above-threshold fluence and the proposed models give insight into the physics of femtosecond laser processing of dental hard tissue.

A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial Comparing Safety, Efficacy, and Cost-effectiveness of the Surgisis Anal Fistula Plug Versus Surgeon's Preference for Transsphincteric Fistula-in-Ano: The FIAT Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a randomized comparison of the Biodesign Surgisis anal fistula plug against surgeon's preference in treating cryptoglandular transsphincteric fistula-in-ano. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The efficacy of the Biodesign Surgisis anal fistula plug in healing anal fistulae is uncertain. METHODS: Participants were randomized to the fistula plug with surgeon's preference (advancement flap, cutting seton, fistulotomy, Ligation of the Intersphincteric Fistula Tract procedure). The primary outcome was faecal incontinence quality of life (FIQoL) at 12-months. Secondary outcomes were fistula healing, incontinence rates, and complication and reintervention rates. RESULTS: Between May 2011 and March 2016, 304 participants were randomized to fistula plug or surgeon's preference. No differences were seen in FIQoL between the 2 groups at 12 months. Clinical fistula healing was reported in 66/122 (54%) of the fistula plug and 66/119 (55%) of the surgeon's preference groups at 12 months. Fecal incontinence rates improved marginally in both the groups. Complications and reinterventions were frequent, with significantly more complications in the fistula plug group at 6-weeks (49/142, 35% vs 25/137, 18%; P=0.002). The mean total costs were £2738 (s.d. £1151) for the fistula plug and £2308 (s.d. £1228) for the surgeon's preference group (mean difference +£430, P=0.0174). The average total quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained was marginally higher in the fistula plug group. The fistula plug was 35% to 45% likely to be cost-effective across a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 to £30,000 / QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The Biodesign Surgisis anal fistula plug is associated with similar FIQoL and healing rates to surgeon's preference at 12 months. Higher costs and highly uncertain gains in QALYs mean that the fistula plug may not be considered as a cost-effective treatment in the UK NHS.

Cost-effectiveness of a new autoantibody test added to Computed Tomography (CT) compared to CT surveillance alone in the diagnosis of lung cancer amongst patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules.

Oncimmune's EarlyCDT®-Lung is a simple ELISA blood test that measures seven lung cancer specific autoantibodies and is used in the assessment of malignancy risk in patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs). The objective of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of EarlyCDT-Lung in the diagnosis of lung cancer amongst patients with IPNs in addition to CT surveillance, compared to CT surveillance alone which is the current recommendation by the British Thoracic Society guidelines. A model consisting of a combination of a decision tree and Markov model was developed using the outcome measure of the quality adjusted life year (QALY). A life-time time horizon was adopted. The model was parameterized using a range of secondary sources. At £70 per test, EarlyCDT-Lung and CT surveillance was found to be cost-effective compared to CT surveillance alone with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than £2,500 depending on the test accuracy parameters used. It was also found that EarlyCDT-Lung can be priced up to £1,177 and still be cost-effective based on cost-effectiveness acceptance threshold of £20,000 / QALY. Further research to resolve parameter uncertainty, was not found to be of value. The results here demonstrate that at £70 per test the EarlyCDT-Lung will have a positive impact on patient outcomes and coupled with CT surveillance is a cost-effective approach to the management of patients with IPNs. The conclusions drawn from this analysis are robust to realistic variation in the parameters used in the model.

Complete Revascularization with Multivessel PCI for Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: In patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of the culprit lesion reduces the risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Whether PCI of nonculprit lesions further reduces the risk of such events is unclear. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease who had undergone successful culprit-lesion PCI to a strategy of either complete revascularization with PCI of angiographically significant nonculprit lesions or no further revascularization. Randomization was stratified according to the intended timing of nonculprit-lesion PCI (either during or after the index hospitalization). The first coprimary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction; the second coprimary outcome was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemia-driven revascularization. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 3 years, the first coprimary outcome had occurred in 158 of the 2016 patients (7.8%) in the complete-revascularization group as compared with 213 of the 2025 patients (10.5%) in the culprit-lesion-only PCI group (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.91; P = 0.004). The second coprimary outcome had occurred in 179 patients (8.9%) in the complete-revascularization group as compared with 339 patients (16.7%) in the culprit-lesion-only PCI group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.61; P<0.001). For both coprimary outcomes, the benefit of complete revascularization was consistently observed regardless of the intended timing of nonculprit-lesion PCI (P = 0.62 and P = 0.27 for interaction for the first and second coprimary outcomes, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease, complete revascularization was superior to culprit-lesion-only PCI in reducing the risk of cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction, as well as the risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemia-driven revascularization. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; COMPLETE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01740479.).

Anal fistula plug versus surgeon's preference for surgery for trans-sphincteric anal fistula: the FIAT RCT.

BACKGROUND: The aim of fistula surgery is to eradicate the disease while preserving anal sphincter function. The efficacy of the Surgisis® anal fistula plug (Cook Medical, Bloomington, IN, USA) in the treatment of trans-sphincteric fistula-in-ano has been variably reported. OBJECTIVES: To undertake a randomised comparison of the safety and efficacy of the Surgisis anal fistula plug in comparison with surgeon's preference for the treatment of trans-sphincteric anal fistulas. DESIGN: A randomised, unblinded, parallel-arm, prospective, multicentre clinical trial. SETTING: Hospitals in the UK NHS involving colorectal surgeons accredited by the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients suffering from trans-sphincteric fistula-in-ano of cryptoglandular origin. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomised on a 1 : 1 basis to either the fistula plug or the surgeon's preference [e.g. fistulotomy, cutting seton, advancement flap or ligation of intersphincteric fistula tract (LIFT) procedure]. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was quality of life as measured by the Faecal Incontinence Quality of Life (FIQoL) questionnaire at 12-month follow-up. Secondary outcome measures included clinical and radiological fistula healing rates, faecal incontinence rates, complications rates, reintervention rates and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Between May 2011 and March 2016, 304 participants were recruited (152 fistula plug vs. 152 surgeon's preference). No difference in FIQoL score between the two trial groups was seen at the 6-week, 6-month or 12-month follow-up. Clinical evidence of fistula healing was reported in 66 of 122 (54%) participants in the fistula plug group and in 66 of 119 (55%) participants in the surgeon's preference group at 12 months. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed fistula healing in 54 of 110 (49%) participants in the fistula plug group and in 63 of 112 (56%) participants in the surgeon's preference group. Variation in 12-month clinical healing rates was observed: 55%, 64%, 75%, 53% and 42% for fistula plug, cutting seton, fistulotomy, advancement flap and LIFT procedure, respectively. Faecal incontinence rates were low at baseline, with small improvement in both groups post treatment. Complications and reinterventions were frequent. The mean total costs were £2738 [standard deviation (SD) £1151] in the fistula plug group and £2308 (SD £1228) in the surgeon's preference group. The average total quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gain was much smaller in the fistula plug group (0.829, SD 0.174) than in the surgeon's preference group (0.790, SD 0.212). Using multiple imputation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and adjusting for differences in baseline EuroQol-5 Dimensions, three-level version utility, there was a 35-45% chance that the fistula plug was as cost-effective as surgeon's preference over a range of thresholds of willingness to pay for a single QALY of £20,000-30,000. LIMITATIONS: Limitations include a smaller sample size than originally calculated, a lack of blinding that perhaps biased patient-reported outcomes and a lower compliance rate with MRI at 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The Surgisis anal fistula plug is associated with similar FIQoL score to surgeon's preference at 12-month follow-up. The higher costs and highly uncertain and small gains in QALYs associated with the fistula plug mean that this technology is unlikely to be considered a cost-effective use of resources in the UK NHS. FUTURE WORK: Further in-depth analysis should consider the clinical and MRI characteristics of fistula-in-ano in an attempt to identify predictors of fistula response to treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN78352529. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 21. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Fistula-in-ano is a common condition in which the inside of the anus is in communication with the outside skin. It is a cause of long-term suffering owing to recurrent infection. Many surgical operations have been proposed to treat fistula-in-ano, with varying degrees of success. These carry the risk of faecal incontinence. The aim of the Fistula-In-Ano Trial (FIAT) was to assess the benefits of a new technology, the Surgisis^® anal fistula plug (Cook Medical, Bloomington, IN, USA), compared with other surgical techniques. The FIAT involved 304 participants; 152 participants were treated with the fistula plug and 152 participants were treated with an alternative surgical technique. There were no differences in quality of life (QoL) among participants treated with the fistula plug compared with those receiving other treatments when assessed 12 months following the operation. Successful fistula healing was achieved in 54% of fistula plug-treated participants and in 55% of participants treated with an alternative technique at 12 months following the operation. Few patients suffered from faecal incontinence before their operation and there was a slight improvement following treatment with the fistula plug and other surgical treatments. The only difference seen between the group treated with the fistula plug and those receiving other surgical treatments was in the complication rate at the 6-week assessment time, with the fistula plug group having higher rates of unexpected pain. Economic analysis of the fistula plug compared with the other surgical treatments showed that the fistula plug was more expensive and only produced very small improvements in QoL. On this basis, it is unlikely that decision-makers in the NHS will support the routine use of the fistula plug.

Biological variation of measured and estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with chronic kidney disease.

When assessing changes in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) it is important to differentiate pathological change from intrinsic biological and analytical variation. GFR is measured using complex reference methods (e.g., iohexol clearance). In clinical practice measurement of creatinine and cystatin C are used in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD] or Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI] equations to provide estimated GFR. Here we studied the biological variability of measured and estimated GFR in twenty nephrology outpatients (10 male, 10 female; median age 71, range 50-80 years) with moderate CKD (GFR 30-59 ml/min per 1.73 m2). Patients underwent weekly GFR measurement by iohexol clearance over four consecutive weeks. Simultaneously, GFR was estimated using the MDRD, CKD-EPIcreatinine, CKD-EPIcystatinC and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC equations. Within-subject biological variation expressed as a percentage [95% confidence interval] for the MDRD (5.0% [4.3-6.1]), CKD-EPIcreatinine (5.3% [4.5-6.4]), CKD-EPIcystatinC (5.3% [4.5-6.5]), and CKD-EPIcreatinine+cystatinC (5.0% [4.3-6.2]) equations were broadly equivalent. The within-subject biological variation for MDRD and CKD- EPIcreatinine+cystatinC estimated GFR were each significantly lower than that of the measured GFR (6.7% [5.6-8.2]). Reference change values, the point at which a true change in a biomarker in an individual can be inferred to have occurred with 95% probability were calculated. By the MDRD equation, positive and negative reference change values were 15.1% and 13.1% respectively. If an individual's baseline MDRD estimated GFR (ml/min per 1.73 m2) was 59, significant increases or decreases would be to values over 68 or under 51 respectively. Within-subject variability of estimated GFR was lower than measured GFR. Reference change values can be used to understand GFR changes in clinical practice. Thus, estimates of GFR are at least as reliable as measured GFR for monitoring patients over time.

Feasibility randomised controlled trial of a guided workbook intervention to support work-related goals among cancer survivors in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: Employment following illness is associated with better physical and psychological functioning. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a theoretically led workbook intervention designed to support patients with cancer returning to work. DESIGN: Parallel-group randomised controlled trial with embedded qualitative interviews. SETTING: Oncology clinics within four English National Health Service Trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who had received a diagnosis of breast, gynaecological, prostate or colorectal cancer and who had been receiving treatment for a minimum of two weeks. INTERVENTION: A self-guided WorkPlan workbook designed to support patients with cancer to return to work with fortnightly telephone support calls to discuss progress. The control group received treatment as usual and was offered the workbook at the end of their 12-month follow-up. OUTCOME MEASURES: We assessed aspects of feasibility including eligibility, recruitment, data collection, attrition, feasibility of the methodology, acceptability of the intervention and potential to calculate cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The recruitment rate of eligible patients was 44%; 68 participants consented and 58 (85%) completed baseline measures. Randomisation procedures were acceptable, data collection methods (including cost-effectiveness data) were feasible and the intervention was acceptable to participants. Retention rates at 6-month and 12-month follow-up were 72% and 69%, respectively. At 6-month follow-up, 30% of the usual care group had returned to full-time or part-time work (including phased return to work) compared with 43% of the intervention group. At 12 months, the percentages were 47% (usual care) and 68% (intervention). CONCLUSIONS: The findings confirm the feasibility of a definitive trial, although further consideration needs to be given to increasing the participation rates among men and black and ethnic minority patients diagnosed with cancer. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN56342476; Pre-results.

An early analysis of the cost-effectiveness of a diagnostic classifier for risk stratification of haematuria patients (DCRSHP) compared to flexible cystoscopy in the diagnosis of bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: Urothelial bladder cancer (UBC) is the 5th most common cancer in Western societies. The most common symptom of UBC is haematuria. Cystoscopy the gold standard for UBC detection, allows direct observation of the bladder, but is expensive, invasive, and uncomfortable. This study examines whether an alternative new urine-based diagnostic test, the DCRSHP, is cost-effective as a triage diagnostic tool compared to flexible cystoscopy in the diagnosis of UBC in haematuria patients. METHODS: A model-based cost-utility analysis using cost per quality adjusted life year and life year gained, parameterised with secondary data sources. RESULTS: If the DCRSHP is targeted at haematuria patients at lower risk of having bladder cancer e.g. younger patients, non-smokers, then it can be priced as high as £620, and be both effective and cost-effective. Sensitivity analysis found that DCRSHP is approximately 80% likely to be cost-effective across all willingness to pay values (for a QALY) and prevalence estimates. CONCLUSION: This analysis shows the potential for a non-invasive test to be added to the diagnostic pathway for haematuria patients suspected of having UBC. If the DCRSHP is applied targeting haematuria patients at low risk of UBC, then it has the potential to be both effective and cost-effective.

MRI versus laparoscopy to diagnose the main causes of chronic pelvic pain in women: a test-accuracy study and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pelvic pain (CPP) symptoms in women are variable and non-specific; establishing a differential diagnosis can be hard. A diagnostic laparoscopy is often performed, although a prior magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan may beneficial. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the accuracy and added value of MRI in making diagnoses of (1) idiopathic CPP and (2) the main gynaecological causes of CPP. To quantify the impact MRI can have on decision-making with respect to triaging for therapeutic laparoscopy and to conduct an economic evaluation. DESIGN: Comparative test-accuracy study with cost-effectiveness modelling. SETTING: Twenty-six UK-based hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 291 women with CPP. METHODS: Pre-index information concerning the patient's medical history, previous pelvic examinations and ultrasound scans was collected. Women reported symptoms and quality of life at baseline and 6 months. MRI scans and diagnostic laparoscopy (undertaken and interpreted blind to each other) were the index tests. For each potential cause of CPP, gynaecologists indicated their level of certainty that the condition was causing the pelvic pain. The analysis considered both diagnostic laparoscopy as a reference standard for observing structural gynaecological causes and consensus from a two-stage expert independent panel for ascertaining the cause of CPP. The stage 1 consensus was based on pre-index, laparoscopy and follow-up data; for stage 2, the MRI scan report was also provided. The primary analysis involved calculations of sensitivity and specificity for the presence or absence of each structural gynaecological cause of pain. A decision-analytic model was developed, with a 6-month time horizon. Two strategies, laparoscopy or MRI, were considered and populated with study data. RESULTS: Using reference standards of laparoscopic and expert panel diagnoses, MRI scans had high specificity but poor sensitivity for observing deep-infiltrating endometriosis, endometrioma, adhesions and ovarian cysts. MRI scans correctly identified 56% [95% confidence interval (CI) 48% to 64%] of women judged to have idiopathic CPP, but missed 46% (95% CI 37% to 55%) of those considered to have a gynaecological structural cause of CPP. MRI added significant value, over and above the pre-index information, in identifying deep-infiltrating endometriosis (p = 0.006) and endometrioma (p = 0.02) as the cause of pain, but not for other gynaecological structural causes or for identifying idiopathic CPP (p = 0.08). Laparoscopy was significantly more accurate than MRI in diagnosing idiopathic CPP (p < 0.0001), superficial peritoneal endometriosis (p < 0.0001), deep-infiltrating endometriosis (p < 0.0001) and endometrioma of the ovary (p = 0.02) as the cause of pelvic pain. The accuracy of laparoscopy appeared to be able to rule in these diagnoses. Using MRI to identify women who require therapeutic laparoscopy would lead to 369 women in a cohort of 1000 receiving laparoscopy unnecessarily, and 136 women who required laparoscopy not receiving it. The economic analysis highlighted the importance of the time horizon, the prevalence of CPP and the cut-off values to inform the sensitivity and specificity of MRI and laparoscopy on the model results. MRI was not found to be a cost-effective diagnostic approach in any scenario. CONCLUSIONS: MRI was dominated by laparoscopy in differential diagnosis of women presenting to gynaecology clinics with CPP. It did not add value to information already gained from history, examination and ultrasound about idiopathic CPP and various gynaecological conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13028601. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 40. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Exploring the roles of urinary HAI-1, EpCAM & EGFR in bladder cancer prognosis & risk stratification.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether elevated urinary HAI-1, EpCAM and EGFR are independent prognostic biomarkers within non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients, and have utility for risk stratification to facilitate treatment decisions. RESULTS: After accounting for EAU risk group in NMIBC patients, the risk of BC-specific death was 2.14 times higher (95% CI: 1.08 to 4.24) if HAI-1 was elevated and 2.04 times higher (95% CI: 1.02 to 4.07) if EpCAM was elevated. The majority of events occurred in the high-risk NMIBC group and this is where the biggest difference is seen in the survival curves when plotted for EAU risk groups separately. In MIBC patients, being elevated for any of the three biomarkers was significantly associated with BC-specific mortality after accounting for other risk factors, HR = 4.30 (95% CI: 1.85 to 10.03). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Urinary levels of HAI-1, EpCAM and EGFR were measured by ELISA in 683 and 175 patients with newly-diagnosed NMIBC and MIBC, respectively, recruited to the Bladder Cancer Prognosis Programme. Associations between biomarkers and progression, BC-specific mortality and all-cause mortality were evaluated using univariable and multivariable Cox regression models, adjusted for European Association of Urology (EAU) NMIBC risk groups. The upper 25% of values for each biomarker within NMIBC patients were considered as elevated. Exploratory analyses in urine from MIBC patients were also undertaken. CONCLUSION: Urinary HAI-1 and EpCAM are prognostic biomarkers for NMIBC patients. These biomarkers have potential to guide treatment decisions for high-risk NMIBC patients. Further analyses are required to define the roles of HAI-1, EpCAM and EGFR in MIBC patients.

Usefulness and engagement with a guided workbook intervention (WorkPlan) to support work related goals among cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND: Returning to work after cancer is associated with improved physical and psychological functioning, but managing this return can be a challenging process. A workbook based intervention (WorkPlan) was developed to support return-to-work among cancer survivors. The aim of this study was to explore how participants using the workbook engaged with the intervention and utilised the content of the intervention in their plan to return-to-work. METHODS: As part of a feasibility randomised controlled trial, 23 participants from the intervention group were interviewed 4-weeks post intervention. Interviews focussed on intervention delivery and data was analysed using Framework analysis. RESULTS: Participants revealed a sense of empowerment and changes in their outlook as they transitioned from patient to employee, citing the act of writing as a medium for creating their own return-to-work narrative. Participants found the generation of a return-to-work plan useful for identifying potential problems and solutions, which also served as a tool for aiding discussion with the employer on return-to-work. Additionally, participants reported feeling less uncertain and anxious about returning to work. Timing of the intervention in coordination with ongoing cancer treatments was crucial to perceived effectiveness; participants identified the sole or final treatment as the ideal time to receive the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The self-guided workbook supports people diagnosed with cancer to build their communication and planning skills to successfully manage their return-to-work. Further research could examine how writing plays a role in this process. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN56342476 . Retrospectively registered 14 October 2015.

Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS): protocol for a prospective longitudinal test accuracy study to validate new risk scores in women with symptoms of suspected ovarian cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with non-specific symptoms such as bloating, making accurate diagnosis challenging: only 1 in 3 women with OC presents through primary care referral. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines recommends sequential testing with CA125 and routine ultrasound in primary care. However, these diagnostic tests have limited sensitivity or specificity. Improving accurate triage in women with vague symptoms is likely to improve mortality by streamlining referral and care pathways. The Refining Ovarian Cancer Test Accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS; HTA 13/13/01) project will derive and validate new tests/risk prediction models that estimate the probability of having OC in women with symptoms. This protocol refers to the prospective study only (phase III). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: ROCkeTS comprises four parallel phases. The full ROCkeTS protocol can be found at http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/ROCKETS. Phase III is a prospective test accuracy study. The study will recruit 2450 patients from 15 UK sites. Recruited patients complete symptom and anxiety questionnaires, donate a serum sample and undergo ultrasound scored as per International Ovarian Tumour Analysis (IOTA) criteria. Recruitment is at rapid access clinics, emergency departments and elective clinics. Models to be evaluated include those based on ultrasound derived by the IOTA group and novel models derived from analysis of existing data sets. Estimates of sensitivity, specificity, c-statistic (area under receiver operating curve), positive predictive value and negative predictive value of diagnostic tests are evaluated and a calibration plot for models will be presented. ROCkeTS has received ethical approval from the NHS West Midlands REC (14/WM/1241) and is registered on the controlled trials website (ISRCTN17160843) and the National Institute of Health Research Cancer and Reproductive Health portfolios.

A Guided Workbook Intervention (WorkPlan) to Support Work-Related Goals Among Cancer Survivors: Protocol of a Feasibility Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Returning to and staying at work following illness is associated with better physical and psychological functioning. Not working has been shown to be associated with reduced self-esteem, lowered self-efficacy, and decreased belief in one's ability to return to the workplace. Although there is a growing body of research looking at what predicts return to work following cancer treatment, there are fewer studies examining interventions targeting return to work. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective is to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a theoretically led workbook intervention designed to support cancer patients in returning to work to inform a fully powered randomized controlled trial (RCT). METHODS: This is a multicenter feasibility RCT where the main analysis uses a qualitative approach. Sixty participants (aged 18-65 years) who have received a diagnosis of cancer and who intend to return to work will be randomized to either the WorkPlan intervention group or a usual care group (ratio 1:1). Participants in the intervention group will receive a guided workbook intervention (which contains activities aimed at eliciting thoughts and beliefs, identifying targets and actions, and concrete steps to achieve goals) and will receive telephone support over a 4-week period. The primary outcome measure is time taken to return to work (in days), and secondary outcome measures include mood, quality of life, illness perceptions, and job satisfaction. Data will be collected through postal questionnaires administered immediately postintervention and at 6- and 12-month follow-ups. In addition, interviews will be undertaken immediately postintervention (to explore acceptability of the intervention and materials) and at 12-month follow-up (to explore perceptions of participation in the trial and experiences of returning to work). RESULTS: Enrollment for the study will be completed in May 2016. Data analysis will commence in April 2017, and the first results are expected to be submitted for publication in late 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Currently no standardized return-to-work intervention based on targeting cancer patient beliefs is in existence. If the intervention is shown to be feasible and acceptable, the results of this study will inform a future full RCT with the potential to provide a valuable and cost-efficient tool in supporting cancer survivors in the return-to-work process. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): ISRCTN56342476; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN56342476 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6gblhEPXd).

Methods Used in Economic Evaluations of Testing and Diagnosis for Ovarian Cancer: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVE: There are multiple tests available that can help diagnose ovarian cancer, and the cost-effective analysis of these diagnostic interventions is essential for making well-informed decisions regarding resource allocation. There are multiple factors that can impact on the conclusions drawn from economic evaluations including test accuracy, the impact of the testing pathway on patient costs and outcomes, and delays along the ovarian cancer test-treat pathway. The objective of this study was to evaluate how test accuracy, the choice of perspective, and delays along the testing and diagnostic pathway have been incorporated in economic evaluations of testing for ovarian cancer. METHODS: A systematic review of published literature was undertaken to identify economic evaluations (eg, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility analysis) focused on testing and diagnosis for ovarian cancer. RESULTS: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies incorporated test accuracy and its impact on patients to some extent. Four studies adopted a societal perspective, but only one considered the costs incurred by patients on the testing and diagnosis pathway. Where delays on the testing pathway were incorporated into the analysis, these were frequently due to false-negative test results leading to delays in patients accessing treatment. Any anxiety that patients might experience as a result of a positive test was not considered in these studies. CONCLUSIONS: The impact on patients of receiving a positive test in terms of anxiety and the costs incurred by patients having to attend for testing and diagnosis are rarely considered. Delays along the testing and diagnosis pathway can have a major effect on patient outcomes, and it is important that these are acknowledged in economic evaluations focused on testing. Future economic analysis should incorporate these key determinants in order that diagnostic tests for ovarian cancer can be robustly evaluated.

The eGFR-C study: accuracy of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation using creatinine and cystatin C and albuminuria for monitoring disease progression in patients with stage 3 chronic kidney disease--prospective longitudinal study in a multiethnic population.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty exists regarding the optimal method to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for disease detection and monitoring. Widely used GFR estimates have not been validated in British ethnic minority populations. METHODS/DESIGN: Iohexol measured GFR will be the reference against which each estimating equation will be compared. The estimating equations will be based upon serum creatinine and/or cystatin C. The eGFR-C study has 5 components: 1) A prospective longitudinal cohort study of 1300 adults with stage 3 chronic kidney disease followed for 3 years with reference (measured) GFR and test (estimated GFR [eGFR] and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio) measurements at baseline and 3 years. Test measurements will also be undertaken every 6 months. The study population will include a representative sample of South-Asians and African-Caribbeans. People with diabetes and proteinuria (ACR ≥30 mg/mmol) will comprise 20-30% of the study cohort.2) A sub-study of patterns of disease progression of 375 people (125 each of Caucasian, Asian and African-Caribbean origin; in each case containing subjects at high and low risk of renal progression). Additional reference GFR measurements will be undertaken after 1 and 2 years to enable a model of disease progression and error to be built.3) A biological variability study to establish reference change values for reference and test measures.4) A modelling study of the performance of monitoring strategies on detecting progression, utilising estimates of accuracy, patterns of disease progression and estimates of measurement error from studies 1), 2) and 3).5) A comprehensive cost database for each diagnostic approach will be developed to enable cost-effectiveness modelling of the optimal strategy.The performance of the estimating equations will be evaluated by assessing bias, precision and accuracy. Data will be modelled as a linear function of time utilising all available (maximum 7) time points compared with the difference between baseline and final reference values. The percentage of participants demonstrating large error with the respective estimating equations will be compared. Predictive value of GFR estimates and albumin-to-creatinine ratio will be compared amongst subjects that do or do not show progressive kidney function decline. DISCUSSION: The eGFR-C study will provide evidence to inform the optimal GFR estimate to be used in clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN42955626.

Cumulative funnel plots for the early detection of interoperator variation: retrospective database analysis of observed versus predicted results of percutaneous coronary intervention.

OBJECTIVE: To use funnel plots and cumulative funnel plots to compare in-hospital outcome data for operators undertaking percutaneous coronary interventions with predicted results derived from a validated risk score to allow for early detection of variation in performance. DESIGN: Analysis of prospectively collected data. SETTING: Tertiary centre NHS hospital in the north east of England. PARTICIPANTS: Five cardiologists carrying out percutaneous coronary interventions between January 2003 and December 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (in-hospital death, Q wave myocardial infarction, emergency coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and cerebrovascular accident) analysed against the logistic north west quality improvement programme predicted risk, for each operator. Results are displayed as funnel plots summarising overall performance for each operator and cumulative funnel plots for an individual operator's performance on a case series basis. RESULTS: The funnel plots for 5198 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions showed an average observed rate for major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events of 1.96% overall. This was below the predicted risk of 2.06% by the logistic north west quality improvement programme risk score. Rates of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events for all operators were within the 3sigma upper control limit of 2.75% and 2sigma upper warning limit of 2.49%. CONCLUSION: The overall in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events rates were under the predicted event rate. In-hospital rates after percutaneous coronary intervention procedure can be monitored successfully using funnel and cumulative funnel plots with 3sigma control limits to display and publish each operator's outcomes. The upper warning limit (2sigma control limit) could be used for internal monitoring. The main advantage of these charts is their transparency, as they show observed and predicted events separately. By this approach individual operators can monitor their own performance, using the predicted risk for their patients but in a way that is compatible with benchmarking to colleagues, encapsulated by the funnel plot. This methodology is applicable regardless of variations in individual operator case volume and case mix.