Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Interpregnancy Weight Change Among Mothers of a Child with a Major Congenital Anomaly: A Danish Nationwide Cohort Study.

Background: The mother of an infant with a major congenital anomaly is at a higher risk of premature cardiometabolic disease, possibly from chronic caregiver stress and distraction from self-care, including maintaining a healthy lifestyle and body weight. Objective: To compare the interpregnancy weight gain in women whose first infant had a major congenital anomaly vs those without an affected child. Methods: Multivariable linear regression compared women whose infant had an anomaly vs those whose infant did not, adjusting for interpregnancy time interval, demographics, smoking and health status at the first pregnancy. Results: Of the 199,536 women who had two consecutive singleton births, 4035 (2.0%) had a child with an anomaly at the first birth. The mean (SD) maternal BMI at the start of the first pregnancy was 24.1 (4.7) and 23.7 (4.4) kg/m2 in women with, and without, an anomaly-affected newborn. By the start of the second pregnancy, 3 years later, they had gained a mean (SD) of 2.2 (5.5) and 1.8 (5.2) kg, respectively - an adjusted absolute higher gain of 0.26 kg (95% CI 0.10 to 0.42) in women with an anomaly-affected first-born infant compared to those with an unaffected pregnancy. The adjusted interpregnancy weight gain difference was greatest in women whose first-born infant had a multi-organ anomaly at 0.59 kg (95% CI 0.02 to 1.16). The adjusted odds ratio of moving from a normal BMI category of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 in the first pregnancy, to an overweight or obese BMI category of 25+ kg/m2 in the second, was 1.18 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.32) comparing mothers with vs without an anomaly-affected child in the first pregnancy. Conclusion: Mothers of an infant with a major congenital anomaly have a modestly higher interpregnancy weight gain and tend to climb to a higher BMI category. The long-term implications of this greater weight trajectory require further study.

Risk of Parkinson Disease and Secondary Parkinsonism in Myocardial Infarction Survivors.

Background In addition to primary neurodegenerative processes, vascular disorders, such as stroke, can lead to parkinsonism. However, some cardiovascular risk factors, such as smoking and elevated cholesterol levels, are associated with reduced risk of Parkinson disease. We examined the risk of Parkinson disease and secondary parkinsonism in 1-year survivors of myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results We conducted a nationwide population-based matched cohort study using Danish medical registries from 1995 to 2016. We identified all patients with a first-time MI diagnosis and sampled a sex-, age-, and calendar year-matched general population comparison cohort without MI. Cox regression analysis was used to compute adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for Parkinson disease and secondary parkinsonism, controlled for matching factors and adjusted for relevant comorbidities and socioeconomic factors. We identified 181 994 patients with MI and 909 970 matched comparison cohort members (median age, 71 years; 62% men). After 21 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence was 0.9% for Parkinson disease and 0.1% for secondary parkinsonism in the MI cohort. Compared with the general population cohort, MI was associated with a decreased risk of Parkinson disease (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.73-0.87) and secondary parkinsonism (aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54-0.94). Conclusions MI was associated with a 20% decreased risk of Parkinson disease and 28% decreased risk of secondary parkinsonism. Reduced risk may reflect an inverse relationship between cardiovascular risk factors and Parkinson disease.

Cohort profile: the Funen Diabetes Database-a population-based cohort of patients with diabetes in Denmark.

PURPOSE: Detailed population-based data are essential to understanding the epidemiology of diabetes and its clinical course. This article describes the Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB). The purpose of the FDDB was to serve as a shared electronic medical record system for healthcare professionals treating patients with diabetes. The cohort can also be used for research. PARTICIPANTS: The FDDB covers a geographical area of almost 500 000 Danish inhabitants. It currently includes 3691 patients with type 1 diabetes, 19 085 patients with type 2 diabetes, 292 patients with other types of diabetes and 5992 patients with an unknown type of diabetes. Patients have been continuously enrolled from general practitioners and endocrinology departments in the Funen area in Denmark since 2003. Patients undergo a clinical work-up at their first diabetes contact and during follow-up visits. The information collected includes type of diabetes contact, blood pressure, height, weight, lifestyle factors (smoking, exercise), laboratory records (eg, haemoglobin A1c and cholesterol levels), results from foot examinations (eg, pulse, cutaneous sensitivity and ankle brachial index), results from eye examinations (eg, degree of retinopathy assessed by retinal photo and eye examination), glucose-lowering drugs and diabetic complications. FINDINGS TO DATE: The FDDB cohort was followed for a total of 212 234 person-years up to 2016. A cross-sectional study described the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy and its associated risk factors. The clinical outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes and latent autoimmune diabetes in adults have been assessed. Linkage to population-based medical registries with complete follow-up has enabled the collection of extensive continuous data on general practice contacts, diagnoses and procedures from hospital contacts, medication use and mortality. FUTURE PLANS: The FDDB serves as a strong data resource that will be used in future studies of diabetes epidemiology with focus on occurrence, risk factors, treatment, complications and prognosis.