Population health and regional variations of disease burden in Japan, 1990-2015: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Japan has entered the era of super-ageing and advanced health transition, which is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of its health system. The level and pace of this health transition might vary across regions within Japan and concern is growing about increasing regional variations in disease burden. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive, comparable framework. We used data from GBD 2015 with the aim to quantify the burden of disease and injuries, and to attribute risk factors in Japan at a subnational, prefecture-level. METHODS: We used data from GBD 2015 for 315 causes and 79 risk factors of death, disease, and injury incidence and prevalence to measure the burden of diseases and injuries in Japan and in the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1990 to 2015. We extracted data from GBD 2015 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Japan and its 47 prefectures. We split extracted data by prefecture and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to known risk factors. We examined the prefecture-level relationships of common health system inputs (eg, health expenditure and workforces) to the GBD outputs in 2015 to address underlying determinants of regional health variations. FINDINGS: Life expectancy at birth in Japan increased by 4·2 years from 79·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 79·0 to 79·0) to 83·2 years (83·1 to 83·2) between 1990 and 2015. However, the gaps between prefectures with the lowest and highest life expectancies and HALE have widened, from 2·5 to 3·1 years and from 2·3 to 2·7 years, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. Although overall age-standardised death rates decreased by 29·0% (28·7 to 29·3) from 1990 to 2015, the rates of mortality decline in this period substantially varied across the prefectures, ranging from -32·4% (-34·8 to -30·0) to -22·0% (-20·4 to -20·1). During the same time period, the rate of age-standardised DALYs was reduced overall by 19·8% (17·9 to 22·0). The reduction in rates of age-standardised YLDs was very small by 3·5% (2·6 to 4·3). The pace of reduction in mortality and DALYs in many leading causes has largely levelled off since 2005. Known risk factors accounted for 34·5% (32·4 to 36·9) of DALYs; the two leading behavioural risk factors were unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking in 2015. The common health system inputs were not associated with age-standardised death and DALY rates in 2015. INTERPRETATION: Japan has been successful overall in reducing mortality and disability from most major diseases. However, progress has slowed down and health variations between prefectures is growing. In view of the limited association between the prefecture-level health system inputs and health outcomes, the potential sources of regional variations, including subnational health system performance, urgently need assessment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Japan Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, AXA CR Fixed Income Fund and AXA Research Fund.

Heart disease, other circulatory diseases, and onset of major depression among community residents in Japan: results of the World Mental Health Survey Japan 2002-2004.

We examined whether selected circulatory diseases (heart disease, stroke, diabetes and hypertension) were associated with an increased risk of major depression in the Japanese community population. Face-to-face household surveys were carried out in 7 areas, and a total of 2,436 persons participated (overall response rate: 58.4%) from 2002 to 2004. The WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 was used to diagnose major depression according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, and additional interviews assessed the presence of circulatory diseases. Using data from a random subsample of the respondents (n=832), we conducted Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios for the onset of major depression with comorbid circulatory diseases as a time-dependent covariate. Heart attack was significantly associated with the onset of major depression (hazard ratio [HR], 7.51 [95% Confidential Interval (CI), 1.36-41.45]) after adjusting for sex, birth cohort, smoking, alcohol intake, and education. Heart disease (HR, 2.12 [95% CI, 0.79-5.70]), diabetes (HR, 2.36 [95% CI, 0.42-13.34]) and hypertension (HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.37, 2.50]) were not significantly associated. There were no subjects who developed major depression after stroke. These results suggest that heart attack, and maybe also heart disease and diabetes, affect the onset of major depression.