A contemporary reassessment of the US surgical workforce through 2050 predicts continued shortages and increased productivity demands.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to predict practicing surgeon workforce size across ten specialties to provide an up-to-date, national perspective on future surgical workforce shortages or surpluses. METHODS: Twenty-one years of AMA Masterfile data (1997-2017) were used to predict surgeons practicing from 2030 to 2050. Published ratios of surgeons/100,000 population were used to estimate the number of surgeons needed. MGMA median wRVU/surgeon by specialty (2017) was used to determine wRVU demand and capacity based on projected and needed number of surgeons. RESULTS: By 2030, surgeon shortages across nine specialties: Cardiothoracic, Otolaryngology, General Surgery, Obstetrics-Gynecology, Ophthalmology, Orthopedics, Plastics, Urology, and Vascular, are estimated to increase clinical workload by 10-50% additional wRVU. By 2050, shortages in eight specialties are estimated to increase clinical workload by 7-61% additional wRVU. CONCLUSIONS: If historical trends continue, a majority of surgical specialties are estimated to experience workforce deficits, increasing clinical demands substantially.

Hospital Admissions Associated With Cancer Pain in Older Adults With and Without Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Neoplasm-related pain is often suboptimally treated, contributing to avoidable suffering and increased medical resource use and costs. We hypothesized that dementia may contribute to increased resource use and costs in patients hospitalized for neoplasm-related pain in the United States. AIMS: To examine how persons with cancer and dementia use medical resources and expenditures in US hospitals compared to ondividuals without dementia. DESIGN: This study examined a retrospective cohort. SETTING: Admissions to US hospitals for neoplasm-related pain from 2012-2016 PARTICIPANTS/SUBJECTS: METHODS: Data were obtained from the 2012-2016 National Inpatient Sample (NIS). The sample included hospital admissions of individuals aged 60 or older with a primary diagnosis of neoplasm-related pain. Dementia was defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), and ICD-10-CM diagnosis codes. Primary outcomes were number of admissions, costs, and length of stay (LOS). Descriptive statistics and multivariable regression models were used to examine the relationships among dementia, costs, and LOS. RESULTS: Of 12,034 admissions for neoplasm-related pain, 136 (1.1%) included a diagnosis of dementia and 11,898 (98.9%) did not. Constipation was present in 13.2% and 24.5% of dementia and nondementia admissions, respectively. The median LOS was 4 days in persons with dementia and three in those without. Mean costs per admission were higher in persons without dementia ($10,736 vs. $9,022, p = .0304). In adjusted regression results, increased costs were associated with nonelective admissions and longer LOS, and decreased costs with age above the mean. In contrast, decreased LOS was associated with age above the mean and nonelective admissions. Dementia was associated with neither endpoint. CONCLUSION: This study provides nurses and other health care professionals with data to further explore opportunities for improvement in cancer pain management in patients with and without dementia that may optimize use of medical resources.

Hospital Location and Socioeconomic Disadvantage of Emergency General Surgery Patients.

BACKGROUND: Emergency general surgery (EGS) patients are more socioeconomically vulnerable than elective counterparts. We hypothesized that a hospital's neighborhood disadvantage is associated with vulnerability of its EGS patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area deprivation index (ADI), a neighborhood-level measure of disadvantage, and key characteristics of 724 hospitals in 14 states were linked to patient-level data in State Inpatient Databases. Hospital and EGS patient characteristics were compared across hospital ADI quartiles (least disadvantaged [ADI 1-25] "affluent," minimally disadvantaged [ADI 26-50] "min-da", moderately disadvantaged [ADI 51-75] "mod-da", and most disadvantaged [ADI 76-100] "impoverished") using chi2 tests and multivariable regression. RESULTS: Higher disadvantage hospitals are more often nonteaching (affluent = 38.9%, min-da = 53.5%, mod-da = 72.1%, and impoverished = 67.6%), nonaffiliated with medical schools (50%, 72.4%, 81.8%, and 78.8%), and in rural areas (3.3%, 9.2%, 31.2%, and 27.9%). EGS patients at higher disadvantage hospitals are more likely to be older (43.9%, 48.6%, 49.1%, and 46.6%), have >3 comorbidities (17.0%, 19.0%, 18.4%, and 19.3%), live in low-income areas (21.4%, 23.6%, 32.2%, and 42.5%), and experience complications (23.2%, 23.7%, 24.0%, and 25.2%). Rates of uninsurance/underinsurance were highest at affluent and impoverished hospitals (18.0, 16.4%, 17.7%, and 19.2%). Higher disadvantage hospitals serve fewer minorities (32.6%, 21.3%, 20.7%, and 24.0%), except in rural areas (2.9%, 6.7%, 6.5%, and 15.5%). In multivariable analyses, the impoverished hospital ADI quartile did not predict odds of serving as a safety-net or predominantly minority-serving hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals in impoverished areas disproportionately serve underserved EGS patient populations but are less likely to have robust resources for EGS care or train future EGS surgeons. These findings have implications for measures to improve equity in EGS outcomes.

The Need for Accurate Risk Assessment in a High-Risk Patient Population: A NSQIP Study Evaluating Outcomes of Cholecystectomy in the Patient With Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cholecystectomy is considered a low-risk procedure with proven safety in many high-risk patient populations. However, the risk of cholecystectomy in patients with active cancer has not been established. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) database was queried to identify all patients with disseminated cancer who underwent cholecystectomy from 2005 to 2016. Postcholecystectomy outcomes were defined for patients with cancer and those without by comparing several outcomes measures. A multivariate model was used to estimate the odds of 30-d mortality. RESULTS: We compared outcomes in 3097 patients with disseminated cancer to a matched cohort of patients without cancer. Patients with cancer had more comorbidities at baseline: dyspnea (10.5% versus 7.0%, P < 0.0001), steroid use (10.1% versus 3.0%, P < 0.0001), and loss of >10% body weight in 6-mo prior (9.3% versus 1.6%, P < 0.0001). Patients with cancer sustained higher rates of wound (2.3% versus 5.6%, P < 0.0001), respiratory (1.4% versus 3.9%, P < 0.0001), and cardiovascular (2.0% versus 6.8%, P < 0.0001) complications. In addition, patients with disseminated cancer experienced a longer length of stay and higher 30-d mortality. Multivariate modeling showed that the odds of 30-d mortality was 3.3 times greater in patients with cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to patients without cancer, those with disseminated cancer are at higher risk of complication and mortality following cholecystectomy. Traditional treatment algorithms should be used with caution and care decisions individualized based on the patient's disease status and treatment goals.

An Updated Physician Workforce Model Predicts a Shortage of Vascular Surgeons for the Next 20 Years.

BACKGROUND: Concern regarding the adequacy of the vascular surgery workforce persists. We aimed to predict future vascular surgery workforce size and capacity using contemporary data on the US population and number, productivity, and practice patterns of vascular surgeons. METHODS: The workforce size needed to maintain current levels of access was estimated to be 1.4 vascular surgeons/100,000 population. Updated population estimates were obtained from the US Census Bureau. We calculated future vascular surgery workforce needs based on the estimated population for every 10 years from 2020 to 2050. American Medical Association Physician Masterfile data from 1997 to 2017 were used to establish the existing vascular surgery workforce size and predict future workforce size, accounting for annual rates of new certificates (increased to an average of 133/year since 2013), retirement (17%/year), and the effects of burnout, reduced work hours, transitions to nonclinical jobs, or early retirement. Based on Medical Group Management Association data that estimate median vascular surgeon productivity to be 8,481 work relative value units (wRVUs)/year, excess/deficits in wRVU capacity were calculated based on the number of anticipated practicing vascular surgeons. RESULTS: Our model predicts declining shortages of vascular surgeons through 2040, with workforce size meeting demand by 2050. In 2030, each surgeon would need to increase yearly wRVU production by 22%, and in 2040 by 8%, to accommodate the workload volume. CONCLUSIONS: Our model predicts a shortage of vascular surgeons in the coming decades, with workforce size meeting demand by 2050. Congruence between workforce and demand for services in 2050 may be related to increases in the number of trainees from integrated residencies combined with decreases in population estimates. Until then, vascular surgeons will be required to work harder to accommodate the workload. Burnout, changing practice patterns, geographic maldistribution, and expansion of health care coverage and utilization may adversely affect the ability of the future workforce to accommodate population needs.