Predicting Postoperative Pain and Opioid Use with Machine Learning Applied to Longitudinal Electronic Health Record and Wearable Data.

BACKGROUND: Managing acute postoperative pain and minimizing chronic opioid use are crucial for patient recovery and long-term well-being. OBJECTIVES: This study explored using preoperative electronic health record (EHR) and wearable device data for machine-learning models that predict postoperative acute pain and chronic opioid use. METHODS: The study cohort consisted of approximately 347 All of Us Research Program participants who underwent one of eight surgical procedures and shared EHR and wearable device data. We developed four machine learning models and used the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) technique to identify the most relevant predictors of acute pain and chronic opioid use. RESULTS: The stacking ensemble model achieved the highest accuracy in predicting acute pain (0.68) and chronic opioid use (0.89). The area under the curve score for severe pain versus other pain was highest (0.88) when predicting acute postoperative pain. Values of logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and stacking ensemble ranged from 0.74 to 0.90 when predicting postoperative chronic opioid use. Variables from wearable devices played a prominent role in predicting both outcomes. CONCLUSION: SHAP detection of individual risk factors for severe pain can help health care providers tailor pain management plans. Accurate prediction of postoperative chronic opioid use before surgery can help mitigate the risk for the outcomes we studied. Prediction can also reduce the chances of opioid overuse and dependence. Such mitigation can promote safer and more effective pain control for patients during their recovery.

Incorporation of emergent symptoms and genetic covariates improves prediction of aromatase inhibitor therapy discontinuation.

Objectives: Early discontinuation is common among breast cancer patients taking aromatase inhibitors (AIs). Although several predictors have been identified, it is unclear how to simultaneously consider multiple risk factors for an individual. We sought to develop a tool for prediction of AI discontinuation and to explore how predictive value of risk factors changes with time. Materials and Methods: Survival machine learning was used to predict time-to-discontinuation of AIs in 181 women who enrolled in a prospective cohort. Models were evaluated via time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), c-index, and integrated Brier score. Feature importance was analysis was conducted via Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and time-dependence of their predictive value was analyzed by time-dependent AUC. Personalized survival curves were constructed for risk communication. Results: The best-performing model incorporated genetic risk factors and changes in patient-reported outcomes, achieving mean time-dependent AUC of 0.66, and AUC of 0.72 and 0.67 at 6- and 12-month cutoffs, respectively. The most significant features included variants in ESR1 and emergent symptoms. Predictive value of genetic risk factors was highest in the first year of treatment. Decrease in physical function was the strongest independent predictor at follow-up. Discussion and Conclusion: Incorporation of genomic and 3-month follow-up data improved the ability of the models to identify the individuals at risk of AI discontinuation. Genetic risk factors were particularly important for predicting early discontinuers. This study provides insight into the complex nature of AI discontinuation and highlights the importance of incorporating genetic risk factors and emergent symptoms into prediction models.

Feasibility of the Genetic Information Assistant Chatbot to Provide Genetic Education and Study Genetic Test Adoption Among Pancreatic Cancer Patients at Johns Hopkins Hospital.

Genetic testing is a valuable tool to guide care of pancreatic cancer patients, yet personal and family uncertainty about the benefits of genetic testing (i.e., decisional conflict) may lead to low adoption. Enabling patients to learn more about genetic testing before their scheduled appointments may help to address this decisional conflict problem. We completed a feasibility assessment of a chatbot to provide genetic education (GEd) with 60 pancreatic cancer patients and using the chatbot to deliver surveys to assess: (a) opinions about the GEd, and (b) decisional conflict about genetic testing. Findings demonstrate intervention and study feasibility with about 80% of participants engaging with the GEd chatbot, 71% of which completed at least one survey. Overall, participants appear to have favorable opinions of the chatbot-delivered education and thought it was helpful to decide about genetic testing. Furthermore, patients who chose to get genetic testing spent more time interacting with the chatbot. Findings will be used to improve chatbot design and to facilitate a well-powered future trial.

Risk for Poor Post-Operative Quality of Life Among Wearable Use Subgroups in an All of Us Research Cohort.

The objective of this research was to build and assess the performance of a prediction model for post-operative recovery status measured by quality of life among individuals experiencing a variety of surgery types. In addition, we assessed the performance of the model for two subgroups (high and moderately consistent wearable device users). Study variables were derived from the electronic health records, questionnaires, and wearable devices of a cohort of individuals with one of 8 surgery types and that were part of the NIH All of Us research program. Through multivariable analysis, high frailty index (OR 1.69, 95% 1.05-7.22, p<0.006), and older age (OR 1.76, 95% 1.55-4.08, p<0.024) were found to be the driving risk factors of poor recovery post-surgery. Our logistic regression model included 15 variables, 5 of which included wearable device data. In wearable use subgroups, the model had better accuracy for high wearable users (81%). Findings demonstrate the potential for models that use wearable measures to assess frailty to inform clinicians of patients at risk for poor surgical outcomes. Our model performed with high accuracy across multiple surgery types and were robust to variable consistency in wearable use.

An Automated Strategy to Calculate Medication Regimen Complexity.

Understanding medication regimen complexity is important to understand what patients may benefit from pharmacist interventions. Medication Regimen Complexity Index (MRCI), a 65-item tool to quantify the complexity by incorporating the count, dosage form, frequency, and additional administration instructions of prescription medicines, provides a more nuanced way of assessing complexity. The goal of this study was to construct and validate a computational strategy to automate the calculation of MRCI. The performance of our strategy was evaluated by comparing our calculated MRCI values with gold-standard values, using correlation coefficients and population distributions. The results revealed satisfactory performance to calculate the sub-score of MRCI that includes dosage form and frequency (76 to 80% match with gold standard), and fair performance for sub-score related to additional direction (52% match with gold standard). Our automated strategy shows potential to help reduce the effort for manually calculating MRCI and highlights areas for future development efforts.