Average treatment effect of maternal prenatal tobacco smoking on offspring developmental vulnerability in early childhood.

BACKGROUND: Early childhood developmental vulnerability has been closely related to the predictors of relatively good health, social and educational outcomes later in adulthood. However, the impacts of prenatal tobacco exposure on childhood developmental vulnerability have been rarely examined. Further, a few of the studies that have investigated maternal prenatal tobacco smoking and child developmental vulnerability have reported mixed results and there are currently no published estimates derived from causal epidemiological methods. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study on the association between maternal prenatal tobacco smoking and developmental vulnerability in children born in Western Australia (WA). De-identified individual-level maternal, infant and birth records were obtained from the Midwives Notification System (MNS), a statutory record of all births in WA. WA register for Developmental Anomalies (WARDA) were also obtained from the WA Data Linkage. Records on early childhood developmental vulnerability at the median age of 5 years were obtained from the Australian Early Development Census (AEDC). We used a doubly robust estimator to estimate the causal effects. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 64,558 mothers-children's pairs. Approximately 16% of children were exposed to maternal prenatal tobacco smoking. Children exposed to maternal prenatal tobacco smoking were more likely to be classified as developmentally vulnerable/at-risk on the physical health and wellbeing (RR = 1.40, 95%CI:1.36-1.45), social competence (RR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.38-1.47), emotional maturity (RR = 1.34, 95%CI:1.30-1.39), language and cognitive skills (RR = 1.50, 95%CI:1.45-1.54), and communication skills and general knowledge (RR = 1.37, 95%CI:1.33-1.42) domains. CONCLUSION: Maternal prenatal exposure to tobacco may influence early childhood developmental vulnerability. Early intervention to quit tobacco smoking before becoming pregnant could potentially reduce later childhood developmental vulnerability on multiple domains.

Maternal acute thermophysiological stress and stillbirth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis.

BACKGROUND: The extreme thermal environment driven by climate change disrupts thermoregulation in pregnant women and may threaten the survival of the developing fetus. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the acute effect of maternal exposure to thermophysiological stress (measured with Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) on the risk of stillbirth and modification of this effect by sociodemographic disparities. METHODS: We conducted a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis of daily UTCI and 2835 singleton stillbirths between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2015 across multiple small areas in Western Australia. Distributed lag non-linear models were combined with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to investigate the effects of the UTCI exposure from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth. We also explored effect modification by fetal and maternal sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: The median UTCI was 13.9 °C (representing no thermal stress) while the 1st and 99th percentiles were 0.7 °C (slight cold stress) and 31.7 °C (moderate heat stress), respectively. Relative to median UTCI, we found positive associations between acute maternal cold and heat stresses and higher risks of stillbirth, increasing with the intensity and duration of the thermal stress episodes. The cumulative risk from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth was stronger in the 99th percentile (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21) than the 1st percentile (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.15), relative to the median UTCI. The risks were disproportionately higher in term and male stillborn fetuses, smoking, unmarried, ≤19 years old, non-Caucasian, and low socioeconomic status mothers. DISCUSSION: Acute maternal exposure to both cold and heat stresses may contribute to the risk of stillbirth and be exacerbated by sociodemographic disparities. The findings suggest public health attention, especially for the identified higher-risk groups. Future studies should consider the use of a human thermophysiological index, rather than surrogates such as ambient temperature.

Prevalence of dual contraceptive use and associated factors among HIV positive women at University of Gondar Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: Dual contraceptive is the use of male condom besides any modern contraceptive. It reduces parent to child transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections between partners. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of dual contraceptive use among HIV positive women at University of Gondar Hospital, North West Ethiopia. RESULT: The prevalence of dual contraceptive use was found to be 13.2% (95% CI 10.5, 16.0). Partner involvement in post-test counseling [AOR = 3.11 (95% CI = 1.74, 5.57)], open partner discussion on using dual contraceptive [AOR = 7.84, 95% CI (4.26, 14.42)], provision of counseling about dual contraception [AOR = 6.56, 95% CI (3.54, 12.18)], age 18-24 years [AOR = 4.79, 95% CI (1.72, 13.32)], age 25-34 years [AOR = 1.97, 95% CI (1.01, 3.85)] and being a housewife [AOR = 4.38, 95% CI (1.89, 10.16)] were significant factors associated with dual contraceptive use. The prevalence of dual contraceptive use was low. This shows, there is a need to in promote partner involvement in HIV testing and counseling by offering counseling session in a couple-basis. It is also necessary for programmers to routinely focus on provision of dual contraception for HIV-infected women and Integration of family planning into HIV care follow-up clinic need to be strengthened.

Burden of disease attributable to suboptimal diet, metabolic risks and low physical activity in Ethiopia and comparison with Eastern sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Twelve of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are related to malnutrition (both under- and overnutrition), other behavioral, and metabolic risk factors. However, comparative evidence on the impact of behavioral and metabolic risk factors on disease burden is limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including Ethiopia. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we assessed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to child and maternal undernutrition (CMU), dietary risks, metabolic risks and low physical activity for Ethiopia. The results were compared with 14 other Eastern SSA countries. METHODS: Databases from GBD 2015, that consist of data from 1990 to 2015, were used. A comparative risk assessment approach was utilized to estimate the burden of disease attributable to CMU, dietary risks, metabolic risks and low physical activity. Exposure levels of the risk factors were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) and Bayesian meta-regression models. RESULTS: In 2015, there were 58,783 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 43,653-76,020] or 8.9% [95% UI: 6.1-12.5] estimated all-cause deaths attributable to CMU, 66,269 [95% UI: 39,367-106,512] or 9.7% [95% UI: 7.4-12.3] to dietary risks, 105,057 [95% UI: 66,167-157,071] or 15.4% [95% UI: 12.8-17.6] to metabolic risks and 5808 [95% UI: 3449-9359] or 0.9% [95% UI: 0.6-1.1] to low physical activity in Ethiopia. While the age-adjusted proportion of all-cause mortality attributable to CMU decreased significantly between 1990 and 2015, it increased from 10.8% [95% UI: 8.8-13.3] to 14.5% [95% UI: 11.7-18.0] for dietary risks and from 17.0% [95% UI: 15.4-18.7] to 24.2% [95% UI: 22.2-26.1] for metabolic risks. In 2015, Ethiopia ranked among the top four countries (of 15 Eastern SSA countries) in terms of mortality and DALYs based on the age-standardized proportion of disease attributable to dietary and metabolic risks. CONCLUSIONS: In Ethiopia, while there was a decline in mortality and DALYs attributable to CMU over the last two and half decades, the burden attributable to dietary and metabolic risks have increased during the same period. Lifestyle and metabolic risks of NCDs require more attention by the primary health care system of the country.

National disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia. RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4-30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2-24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9-5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7-4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7-3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1-4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7-3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7-3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing age-standardized DALYs related to most communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases in the last 25 years, causing a major ranking shift to types of non-communicable disease. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal disease, and tuberculosis continue to be leading causes of premature death, despite major declines in burden. Non-communicable diseases also showed reductions as premature mortality declined; however, disability outcomes for these causes did not show declines. Recently developed non-communicable disease strategies may need to be amended to focus on cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes, and major depressive disorders. Increasing trends of disabilities due to neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, and neonatal disorders should be emphasized in the national newborn survival strategy. Generating quality data should be a priority through the development of new initiatives such as vital events registration, surveillance programs, and surveys to address gaps in data. Measuring disease burden at subnational regional state levels and identifying variations with urban and rural population health should be conducted to support health policy in Ethiopia.

National mortality burden due to communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia lacks a complete vital registration system that would assist in measuring disease burden and risk factors. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) estimates to describe the mortality burden from communicable, non-communicable, and other diseases in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. METHODS: GBD 2015 mainly used cause of death ensemble modeling to measure causes of death by age, sex, and year for 195 countries. We report numbers of deaths and rates of years of life lost (YLL) for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and injuries with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015. RESULTS: CMNN causes of death have declined by 65% in the last two-and-a-half decades. Injury-related causes of death have also decreased by 70%. Deaths due to NCDs declined by 37% during the same period. Ethiopia showed a faster decline in the burden of four out of the five leading causes of age-standardized premature mortality rates when compared to the overall sub-Saharan African region and the Eastern sub-Saharan African region: lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, and diarrheal diseases; however, the same could not be said for ischemic heart disease and other NCDs. Non-communicable diseases, together, were the leading causes of age-standardized mortality rates, whereas CMNN diseases were leading causes of premature mortality in 2015. Although lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, and diarrheal disease were the leading causes of age-standardized death rates, they showed major declines from 1990 to 2015. Neonatal encephalopathy, iron-deficiency anemia, protein-energy malnutrition, and preterm birth complications also showed more than a 50% reduction in burden. HIV/AIDS-related deaths have also decreased by 70% since 2005. Ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke were among the top causes of premature mortality and age-standardized death rates in Ethiopia in 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has been successful in reducing deaths related to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional deficiency diseases and injuries by 65%, despite unacceptably high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. However, the country's performance regarding non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease, was minimal, causing these diseases to join the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates in 2015. While the country is progressing toward universal health coverage, prevention and control strategies in Ethiopia should consider the double burden of common infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases: lower respiratory infections, diarrhea, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Prevention and control strategies should also pay special attention to the leading causes of premature mortality and death rates caused by non-communicable diseases: cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes. Measuring further progress requires a data revolution in generating, managing, analyzing, and using data for decision-making and the creation of a full vital registration system in the country.

The prevalence of precancerous cervical cancer lesion among HIV-infected women in southern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The magnitude of precancerous cervical cancer lesions as well as invasive cervical cancer is higher in HIV-infected women than non HIV-infected women. Thus, screening targeting HIV-infected women is being undertaken in developing countries, including Ethiopia. However, data on the prevalence and determinants of precancerous cervical cancer lesion among HIV-infected women in southern Ethiopia is lacking. Thus, this study aimed to assess the prevalence of and factors associated with precancerous cervical cancer lesion among HIV- infected women in southern Ethiopia. METHODS: A hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2012 to February 2013 among HIV-infected women in Southern Ethiopia. Four hundred forty eight HIV-infected women who had been screened and treated for precancerous cervical cancer lesion were included in the study. Data were collected by using structured and pretested questionnaire. Visual inspection with acetic acid was applied for screening and treatment. SPSS version 16.0 was used for data entry and analysis. Logistic regression analysis was fitted and odds ratios with 95% Confidence intervals and p-values were computed to identify factors associated with precancerous cervical cancer lesion. RESULTS: Out of 448 study participants, 99 (22.1%) were found to be positive for precancerous cervical cancer. Being currently on highly active antiretroviral treatment (AOR=0.52, 95%CI: 0.35, 0.92), history of sexually transmitted disease (AOR=2.30, 95%CI: 1.23, 4.29) and having only one lifetime sexual partner (AOR=0.33, 95%CI: 0.20, 0.56) were factors associated with precancerous cervical cancer lesion. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of precancerous cervical cancer lesion among HIV-infected women in southern Ethiopia was found to be high. Intervention to access all HIV-infected women like scaling up the limited services and awareness creation should be undertaken. Measures aimed at preventing the acquisition and transmission of sexually transmitted diseases and reducing the number of sexual partners are required. Besides, early initiation of highly active antiretroviral treatment is important.