The Women's Health Initiative Randomized Trials and Clinical Practice: A Review.

Importance: Approximately 55 million people in the US and approximately 1.1 billion people worldwide are postmenopausal women. To inform clinical practice about the health effects of menopausal hormone therapy, calcium plus vitamin D supplementation, and a low-fat dietary pattern, the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) enrolled 161 808 postmenopausal US women (N = 68 132 in the clinical trials) aged 50 to 79 years at baseline from 1993 to 1998, and followed them up for up to 20 years. Observations: The WHI clinical trial results do not support hormone therapy with oral conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate for postmenopausal women or conjugated equine estrogens alone for those with prior hysterectomy to prevent cardiovascular disease, dementia, or other chronic diseases. However, hormone therapy is effective for treating moderate to severe vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. These benefits of hormone therapy in early menopause, combined with lower rates of adverse effects of hormone therapy in early compared with later menopause, support initiation of hormone therapy before age 60 years for women without contraindications to hormone therapy who have bothersome menopausal symptoms. The WHI results do not support routinely recommending calcium plus vitamin D supplementation for fracture prevention in all postmenopausal women. However, calcium and vitamin D are appropriate for women who do not meet national guidelines for recommended intakes of these nutrients through diet. A low-fat dietary pattern with increased fruit, vegetable, and grain consumption did not prevent the primary outcomes of breast or colorectal cancer but was associated with lower rates of the secondary outcome of breast cancer mortality during long-term follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance: For postmenopausal women, the WHI randomized clinical trials do not support menopausal hormone therapy to prevent cardiovascular disease or other chronic diseases. Menopausal hormone therapy is appropriate to treat bothersome vasomotor symptoms among women in early menopause, without contraindications, who are interested in taking hormone therapy. The WHI evidence does not support routine supplementation with calcium plus vitamin D for menopausal women to prevent fractures or a low-fat diet with increased fruits, vegetables, and grains to prevent breast or colorectal cancer. A potential role of a low-fat dietary pattern in reducing breast cancer mortality, a secondary outcome, warrants further study.

Cocoa Extract Supplementation and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: The Cocoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) Randomized Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Observational studies have indicated that cocoa flavanol supplementation may be a promising strategy for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevention. We aimed to directly evaluate its clinical efficacy in a large randomized clinical trial (RCT). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHOD: The Cocoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COMSOS) was a 2 × 2 factorial RCT performed from June 2015 to December 2020 that tested cocoa extract and a multivitamin for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. A total of 21,442 U.S. adults free of CVD and recent cancer, including 12,666 women aged ≥65 years and 8,776 men aged ≥60 years, were randomly assigned to receive cocoa extract [500 mg/day cocoa flavanols, including 80 mg (-)-epicatechin] or placebo. In this study, we included 18,381 participants without diabetes at enrollment and examined the effect of cocoa extract supplementation on incident self-reported T2D in intention-to-treat analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 801 incident T2D cases were reported. Compared with placebo, taking a cocoa extract supplement did not reduce T2D (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04, 95% CI 0.91-1.20, P = 0.58). Stratification analyses showed that the effect of cocoa extract supplementation was not significantly modified by sex, race, BMI, smoking, physical activity, dietary quality, flavanol status at baseline, or randomized multivitamin assignment. CONCLUSIONS: Middle-aged and older adults taking a cocoa extract supplement for a median of 3.5 years did not reduce their risk of incident T2D. Further studies of cocoa extract supplementation beginning earlier in adulthood and in populations with different background diets are warranted.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential (CHIP) and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk.

OBJECTIVE: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: CHIP was derived from whole-genome sequencing of blood DNA in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) prospective cohorts. We performed analysis for 17,637 participants from six cohorts, without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. We evaluated baseline CHIP versus no CHIP prevalence with incident T2D, including associations with DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, and TP53 variants. We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education, self-reported race/ethnicity, and combined cohorts' estimates via fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 63.4 (11.5) years, 76% were female, and CHIP prevalence was 6.0% (n = 1,055) at baseline. T2D was diagnosed in n = 2,467 over mean follow-up of 9.8 years. Participants with CHIP had 23% (CI 1.04, 1.45) higher risk of T2D than those with no CHIP. Specifically, higher risk was for TET2 (HR 1.48; CI 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR 1.76; CI 1.03, 2.99) mutations; DNMT3A was nonsignificant (HR 1.15; CI 0.93, 1.43). Statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 analyses. CONCLUSIONS: CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on genes implicated in CHD and mortality were also related to T2D, suggesting shared aging-related pathology.

Sugar-Sweetened and Artificially Sweetened Beverages and Risk of Liver Cancer and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality.

Importance: Approximately 65% of adults in the US consume sugar-sweetened beverages daily. Objective: To study the associations between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and incidence of liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort with 98 786 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative from 1993 to 1998 at 40 clinical centers in the US and were followed up to March 1, 2020. Exposures: Sugar-sweetened beverage intake was assessed based on a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline and defined as the sum of regular soft drinks and fruit drinks (not including fruit juice); artificially sweetened beverage intake was measured at 3-year follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were (1) liver cancer incidence, and (2) mortality due to chronic liver disease, defined as death from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, alcoholic liver diseases, and chronic hepatitis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for liver cancer incidence and for chronic liver disease mortality, adjusting for potential confounders including demographics and lifestyle factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 20.9 years, 207 women developed liver cancer and 148 died from chronic liver disease. At baseline, 6.8% of women consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverage servings per day, and 13.1% consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverage servings per day at 3-year follow-up. Compared with intake of 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more servings per day had a significantly higher risk of liver cancer (18.0 vs 10.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .02]; adjusted HR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.16-2.96]; P = .01) and chronic liver disease mortality (17.7 vs 7.1 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend <.001]; adjusted HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.03-2.75]; P = .04). Compared with intake of 3 or fewer artificially sweetened beverages per month, individuals who consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverages per day did not have significantly increased incidence of liver cancer (11.8 vs 10.2 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .70]; adjusted HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.70-1.94]; P = .55) or chronic liver disease mortality (7.1 vs 5.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .32]; adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.49-1.84]; P = .88). Conclusions and Relevance: In postmenopausal women, compared with consuming 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverages per day had a higher incidence of liver cancer and death from chronic liver disease. Future studies should confirm these findings and identify the biological pathways of these associations.

Association of dietary insulinemic and inflammatory potential with risk of liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality in postmenopausal women: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Low diet quality, diabetes, and chronic inflammation are risk factors of liver cancer and chronic liver disease (CLD), but the extent to which insulinemic and inflammatory diets are independently associated with risk of liver cancer and CLD mortality is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort analysis among 78,356 postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. Two validated dietary indices, the empirical dietary index for hyperinsulinemia (EDIH) and the empirical dietary inflammation pattern (EDIP), were estimated from a food-frequency questionnaire. Incident cases of liver cancer and CLD mortality were adjudicated via review of medical records and linkage to National Death Index. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, diabetes, body mass index, and other covariates. RESULTS: During a median 22.1 y of follow-up, we documented 176 primary liver cancer cases and 156 CLD mortality cases. EDIH was positively associated with incident liver cancer (HRQuartile 4 vs. Quartile 1 = 1.68; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.83; P-trend = 0.05) and CLD mortality (HRQ4 vs. Q1 = 2.28; 95% CI: 1.25, 4.15; P-trend = 0.02) in the multivariable model. EDIP was also positively associated with liver cancer (HRQ4 vs. Q1 = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.17, 3.03; P-trend = 0.009) and CLD mortality (HRQ4 vs. Q1 = 1.85; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.15; P-trend = 0.007). Estimates remained significant and robust in sensitivity analyses. Further analyses indicated positive associations for refined grains, processed meat, sugary beverages, and eggs, and inverse associations for coffee/tea and poultry. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary insulinemic and inflammatory potentials were independently associated with higher risk of liver cancer and CLD mortality in U.S. postmenopausal women. These findings suggest a potential role for diet modification to reduce risk of liver cancer and CLD.

Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools.

BACKGROUND: We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test. METHODS: We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model. CONCLUSION: Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.

Metabolomics-Based Biomarker for Dietary Fat and Associations with Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) randomized, controlled Dietary Modification (DM) trial of a low-fat dietary pattern suggested intervention benefits related to breast cancer, coronary heart disease (CHD), and diabetes. Here, we use WHI observational data for further insight into the chronic disease implications of adopting this type of low-fat dietary pattern. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to use our earlier work on metabolomics-based biomarkers of carbohydrate and protein to develop a fat intake biomarker by subtraction, to use the resulting biomarker to develop calibration equations that adjusts self-reported fat intake for measurement error, and to study associations of biomarker-calibrated fat intake with chronic disease risk in WHI cohorts. Corresponding studies for specific fatty acids will follow separately. METHODS: Prospective disease association results are presented using WHI cohorts of postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 y when enrolled at 40 United States clinical centers. Biomarker equations were developed using an embedded human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations were developed using a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were associated with cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes incidence in WHI cohorts (n = 81,954) over an approximate 20-y follow-up period. RESULTS: A biomarker for fat density was developed by subtracting protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol densities from one. A calibration equation was developed for fat density. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for 20% higher fat density were 1.16 (1.06, 1.27) for breast cancer, 1.13 (1.02, 1.26) for CHD, and 1.19 (1.13, 1.26) for diabetes, in substantial agreement with findings from the DM trial. With control for additional dietary variables, especially fiber, fat density was no longer associated with CHD, with hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.00 (0.88, 1.13), whereas that for breast cancer was 1.11 (1.00, 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: WHI observational data support prior DM trial findings of low-fat dietary pattern benefits in this population of postmenopausal United States women. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Metabolomics Biomarkers for Fatty Acid Intake and Biomarker-Calibrated Fatty Acid Associations with Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: A substantial observational literature relating specific fatty acid classes to chronic disease risk may be limited by its reliance on self-reported dietary data. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop biomarkers for saturated (SFA), monounsaturated (MUFA), and polyunsaturated (PUFA) fatty acid densities, and to study their associations with cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Women's Health Initiative (WHI) cohorts. METHODS: Biomarker equations were based primarily on serum and urine metabolomics profiles from an embedded WHI human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations were based on biomarker values in a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were assessed in relation to disease incidence in larger WHI cohorts (n = 81,894). Participants were postmenopausal women, aged 50-79 when enrolled at 40 United States Clinical Centers (1993-1998), with a follow-up period of ∼20 y. RESULTS: Biomarker equations meeting criteria were developed for SFA, MUFA, and PUFA densities. That for SFA density depended somewhat weakly on metabolite profiles. On the basis of our metabolomics platforms, biomarkers were insensitive to trans fatty acid intake. Calibration equations meeting criteria were developed for SFA and PUFA density, but not for MUFA density. With or without biomarker calibration, SFA density was associated positively with risk of CVD, cancer, and T2D, but with small hazard ratios, and CVD associations were not statistically significant after controlling for other dietary variables, including trans fatty acid and fiber intake. Following this same control, PUFA density was not significantly associated with CVD risk, but there were positive associations for some cancers and T2D, with or without biomarker calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Higher SFA and PUFA diets were associated with null or somewhat higher risk for clinical outcomes considered in this population of postmenopausal United States women. Further research is needed to develop even stronger biomarkers for these fatty acid densities and their major components. This study is registered with clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT00000611.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program.

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Enhancing Capacity for Food and Nutrient Intake Assessment in Population Sciences Research.

Nutrition influences health throughout the life course. Good nutrition increases the probability of good pregnancy outcomes, proper childhood development, and healthy aging, and it lowers the probability of developing common diet-related chronic diseases, including obesity, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and type 2 diabetes. Despite the importance of diet and health, studying these exposures is among the most challenging in population sciences research. US and global food supplies are complex; eating patterns have shifted such that half of meals are eaten away from home, and there are thousands of food ingredients with myriad combinations. These complexities make dietary assessment and links to health challenging both for population sciences research and for public health policy and practice. Furthermore, most studies evaluating nutrition and health usually rely on self-report instruments prone to random and systematic measurement error. Scientific advances involve developing nutritional biomarkers and then applying these biomarkers as stand-alone nutritional exposures or for calibrating self-reports using specialized statistics.

Comparison of the Ketogenic Ratio of Macronutrients With the Low-Carbohydrate Diet Score and Their Association With Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Postmenopausal Women: A Secondary Analysis of the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Previous attempts to identify low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) in epidemiological studies relied on the LCD Score, which is unable to identify ketogenic dieters. Ketogenic ratios of macronutrients are clinical equations proposed to predict ketogenic diets; however, their utility in epidemiological studies is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of participants consuming a ketogenic diet, compare ketogenic ratios to the LCD Score, and evaluate their association with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Women's Health Initiative with 17.9 ± 6.03 years of follow-up. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were used to calculate the ketogenic ratio as follows: (0.9 × grams fat + 0.46 × grams protein) / (0.1 × grams fat + 0.58 × grams protein + grams net carbohydrate), a value ≥1.5 is the minimum threshold for a ketogenic diet. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: One hundred twenty-five nine hundred eighty-two postmenopausal women without diabetes (aged 50 to 79 years) enrolled in the multicenter Women's Health Initiative observational study and clinical trials were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of self-reported incident T2DM. STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, education, income, health insurance, relationship status, geographic region, Women's Health Initiative study component, female hormone use, smoking status, alcohol use, recreational physical activity, total energy intake, diet quality, body mass index, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension, were used to compare hazard ratios and 95% CIs for T2DM among quintiles of the ketogenic ratio. RESULTS: A total of 18,775 incident cases of T2DM occurred. The median ketogenic ratio was 0.35 (interquartile range 0.28 to 0.42) and 15 individuals (0.01%) exceeded the threshold for a ketogenic diet. Higher ketogenic ratio quintiles were associated with increased risk of T2DM in a dose-dependent manner. Comparing extreme quintiles of the ketogenic ratio, the hazard ratio for diabetes was 1.24 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.31; Ptrend < 0.001) in fully adjusted models. Similarly, comparing extreme quintiles, the hazard ratio for diabetes was 1.36 (95% CI 1.29 to 1.43; Ptrend < 0.001) for the LCD Score and 1.13 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; Ptrend < 0.001) for the simplified ketogenic ratio in fully adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing ketogenic ratio values are associated with increased risk of T2DM and align well with LCD Scores; however, too few participants consumed a ketogenic diet to determine its association with T2DM.

Associations of Biomarker-Calibrated Healthy Eating Index-2010 Scores with Chronic Disease Risk and Their Dependency on Energy Intake and Body Mass Index in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies examined associations between the Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and chronic disease risk based on self-reported diet without measurement error correction. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to test associations between biomarker calibration of the food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ)-derived HEI-2010 with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and type 2 diabetes (T2D) among Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants. METHODS: Data were derived from WHI postmenopausal women (n = 100,374) aged 50-79 y at enrollment (1993-1998) at 40 US clinical centers, linked to nutritional biomarker substudies and outcomes over subsequent decades of follow-up. Baseline or year 1 FFQ-derived HEI-2010 scores were calibrated with nutritional biomarkers and participant characteristics (e.g., BMI) for systematic measurement error correction. Calibrated data were then used in HR models examining associations with incidence of CVD (total, subtypes, mortality), cancer (total, subtypes, mortality), and T2D in WHI participants with approximately 2 decades of follow-up. Models were multivariable-adjusted with further adjustment for BMI and doubly labeled water (DLW)-calibrated energy. RESULTS: Multivariable-adjusted HRs modeled a 20% increment in HEI-2010 score in relation to outcomes. HRs were modest using uncalibrated HEI-2010 scores (HRs = 0.91-1.09). Using biomarker-calibrated HEI-2010, 20% increments in scores yielded multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) of 0.75 (0.60, 0.93) for coronary heart disease; 0.75 (0.61, 0.91) for myocardial infarction; 0.96 (0.92, 1.01) for stroke; 0.88 (0.75, 1.02) for CVD mortality; 0.81 (0.70, 0.94) for colorectal cancer; 0.81 (0.74, 0.88) for breast cancer; 0.79 (0.73, 0.87) for cancer mortality; and 0.45 (0.36-0.55) for T2D. Except for cancer mortality and T2D incidence, results became null when adjusted for DLW-calibrated energy intake and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarker calibration of FFQ-derived HEI-2010 was associated with lower CVD and cancer incidence and mortality and lower T2D incidence in postmenopausal women. Attenuation after adjustment with BMI and DLW-calibrated energy suggests that energy intake and/or obesity are strong drivers of diet-related chronic disease risk in postmenopausal women. The Women's Health Initiative is registered at clinicaltrials.gov at NCT00000611.

Dietary patterns and urinary phthalate exposure among postmenopausal women of the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Phthalates are endocrine-disrupting chemicals linked to a higher risk of numerous chronic health outcomes. Diet is a primary source of exposure, but prior studies exploring associations between dietary patterns and phthalate exposure are limited. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated the associations between dietary patterns and urinary phthalate biomarkers among a subset of postmenopausal women participating in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI). METHODS: We included WHI participants selected for a nested case-control study of phthalates and breast cancer (N = 1240). Dietary intake was measured via self-administered food frequency questionnaires at baseline and year-3. We used these data to calculate scores for alignment with the Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH), alternative Mediterranean (aMed), and Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) diets. We measured 13 phthalate metabolites and creatinine in 2-3 urine samples per participant collected over 3-years when all participants were cancer-free. We fit multivariable generalized estimating equation models to estimate the cross-sectional associations. RESULTS: DASH and aMed dietary scores were inversely associated with the sum of di(2-Ethylhexyl) phthalate (-6.48%, 95% CI -9.84, -3.00; -5.23%, 95% CI -8.73, -1.60) and DII score was positively associated (9.00%, 95% CI 5.04, 13.11). DASH and aMed scores were also inversely associated with mono benzyl phthalate and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate. DII scores were positively associated with mono benzyl phthalate and the sum of di-n-butyl phthalate. DISCUSSION: Higher dietary alignment with DASH and aMed dietary patterns were significantly associated with lower concentrations of certain phthalate biomarkers, while an inflammatory diet pattern was associated with higher phthalate biomarker concentrations. These findings suggest that dietary patterns high in fruits, vegetables, and low-fat foods and low in processed foods may be useful in avoiding exposure to phthalates.

Serial 7-Day Electrocardiogram Patch Screening for AF in High-Risk Older Women by the CHARGE-AF Score.

BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke. The yield of serial electrocardiographic (ECG) screening for AF is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of AF detected by serial, 7-day ECG patch screenings in older women identified as having an elevated risk of AF according to the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology)-AF clinical prediction score. METHODS: Postmenopausal women with a 5-year predicted risk of new-onset AF ≥5% according to CHARGE-AF were recruited from the ongoing WHISH (Women's Health Initiative Strong and Healthy) randomized trial of a physical activity intervention. Participants with AF at baseline by self-report or medical records review were excluded. Screening with 7-day ECG patch monitors was performed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months from study enrollment. RESULTS: On baseline monitoring, 2.5% of the cohort had AF detected, increasing to 3.7% by 6 months and 4.9% cumulatively by 12 months. Yield of patch screening was higher among participants with a higher (≥10%) CHARGE-AF score: 4.2% had AF detected at baseline, 5.9% at 6 months, and 7.2% at 12 months. Most participants with patch-identified AF never had a clinical diagnosis of AF (36 of 46 [78%]). CONCLUSIONS: Older women with an elevated CHARGE-AF score had a high prevalence of AF on 7-day ECG patch screening. Serial screening over 12 months substantially increased the detection of AF. These data can be useful in helping identify high-risk participants for enrollment in future studies of the management of asymptomatic AF.(Women's Health Initiative Silent Atrial Fibrillation Recording Study [WHISH STAR]; NCT05366803.).

Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium.

PURPOSE: Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown. METHODS: We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality. RESULTS: The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status. CONCLUSION: We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.

Biomarker-Calibrated Red and Combined Red and Processed Meat Intakes with Chronic Disease Risk in a Cohort of Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: The associations of red and processed meat with chronic disease risk remain to be clarified, in part because of measurement error in self-reported diet. OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop metabolomics-based biomarkers for red and processed meat, and to evaluate associations of biomarker-calibrated meat intake with chronic disease risk among postmenopausal women. METHODS: Study participants were women who were members of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study cohorts. These participants were postmenopausal women aged 50-79 y when enrolled during 1993-1998 at 40 US clinical centers with embedded human feeding and nutrition biomarker studies. Literature reports of metabolomics correlates of meat consumption were used to develop meat intake biomarkers from serum and 24-h urine metabolites in a 153-participant feeding study (2010-2014). Resulting biomarkers were used in a 450-participant biomarker study (2007-2009) to develop linear regression calibration equations that adjust FFQ intakes for random and systematic measurement error. Biomarker-calibrated meat intakes were associated with cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes incidence among 81,954 WHI participants (1993-2020). RESULTS: Biomarkers and calibration equations meeting prespecified criteria were developed for consumption of red meat and red plus processed meat combined, but not for processed meat consumption. Following control for nondietary confounding factors, hazard ratios were calculated for a 40% increment above the red meat median intake for coronary artery disease (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.14), heart failure (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.33), breast cancer (HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.13) for, total invasive cancer (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.09), and diabetes (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.34, 1.39). HRs for red plus processed meat intake were similar. HRs were close to the null, and mostly nonsignificant following additional control for dietary potential confounding factors, including calibrated total energy consumption. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively high-meat dietary pattern is associated with somewhat higher chronic disease risks. These elevations appear to be largely attributable to the dietary pattern, rather than to consumption of red or processed meat per se.

Multivitamins in the prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease: the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Although older adults commonly take multivitamin-multimineral (MVM) supplements to promote health, evidence on the use of daily MVMs on invasive cancer is limited. OBJECTIVES: The study objective was to determine if a daily MVM decreases total invasive cancer among older adults. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2-by-2 factorial trial of a daily MVM and cocoa extract for prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) among 21,442 US adults (12,666 women aged ≥65 y and 8776 men aged ≥60 y) free of major CVD and recently diagnosed cancer. The intervention phase was from June 2015 through December 2020. This article reports on the MVM intervention. Participants were randomly assigned to daily MVM or placebo. The primary outcome was total invasive cancer, excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer. Secondary outcomes included major site-specific cancers, total CVD, all-cause mortality, and total cancer risk among those with a baseline history of cancer. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.6 y, invasive cancer occurred in 518 participants in the MVM group and 535 participants in the placebo group (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.09; P = 0.57). We observed no significant effect of a daily MVM on breast cancer (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.42) or colorectal cancer (HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 0.80, 2.12). We observed a protective effect of a daily MVM on lung cancer (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.92). The composite CVD outcome occurred in 429 participants in the MVM group and 437 participants in the placebo group (HR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.12). MVM use did not significantly affect all-cause mortality (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.08). There were no safety concerns. CONCLUSIONS: A daily MVM supplement, compared with placebo, did not significantly reduce the incidence of total cancer among older men and women. Future studies are needed to determine the effects of MVMs on other aging-related outcomes among older adults. This trial is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02422745.

Design and baseline characteristics of participants in the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS).

Background Cocoa extract and multivitamins have been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, respectively. However, few randomized clinical trials have tested their long-term effects on these outcomes. Methods The COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial trial of a cocoa extract supplement and a multivitamin supplement to reduce the risk of CVD and cancer. Here we describe the pragmatic, hybrid design of the trial and baseline characteristics of the trial participants. Results The nationwide study population includes 21,442 U.S. women aged ≥65 years and men aged ≥60 years without baseline myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or a recent (within the past 2 years) cancer diagnosis. Participants were randomized in a 2 × 2 factorial design to one of four groups: (1) cocoa extract (containing 500 mg/d flavanols, including 80 mg (-)-epicatechin) and a multivitamin (Centrum Silver©); (2) cocoa extract and multivitamin placebo; (3) multivitamin and cocoa extract placebo; or (4) both placebos. Randomization successfully distributed baseline demographic, clinical, behavioral, and dietary characteristics across treatment groups. Baseline biospecimens were collected from 6867 participants, with at least one follow-up biospecimen from 2142 participants. The primary outcome for the cocoa extract intervention is total CVD (a composite of MI, stroke, cardiovascular mortality, coronary revascularization, unstable angina requiring hospitalization, carotid artery surgery, and peripheral artery surgery); the primary outcome for the multivitamin intervention is total invasive cancer. Conclusion COSMOS will provide important information on the health effects of cocoa extract and multivitamin supplementation in older U.S. adults. Clinical Trials Registration: clinicaltrials.gov #NCT02422745.

Biomarkers for Components of Dietary Protein and Carbohydrate with Application to Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: We recently developed protein and carbohydrate intake biomarkers using metabolomics profiles in serum and urine, and used them to correct self-reported dietary data for measurement error. Biomarker-calibrated carbohydrate density was inversely associated with chronic disease risk, whereas protein density associations were mixed. OBJECTIVES: To elucidate and extend this earlier work through biomarker development for protein and carbohydrate components, including animal protein and fiber. METHODS: Prospective disease association analyses were undertaken in Women's Health Initiative (WHI) cohorts of postmenopausal US women, aged 50-79 y when enrolled at 40 US clinical centers. Biomarkers were developed using an embedded human feeding study (n = 153). Calibration equations for protein and carbohydrate components were developed using a WHI nutritional biomarker study (n = 436). Calibrated intakes were associated with chronic disease incidence in WHI cohorts (n = 81,954) over a 20-y (median) follow-up period, using HR regression methods. RESULTS: Previously reported elevations in cardiovascular disease (CVD) with higher-protein diets tended to be explained by animal protein density. For example, for coronary heart disease a 20% increment in animal protein density had an HR of 1.20 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.42) relative to the HR for total protein density. In comparison, cancer and diabetes risk showed little association with animal protein density beyond that attributable to total protein density. Inverse carbohydrate density associations with total CVD were mostly attributable to fiber density, with a 20% increment HR factor of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83, 0.94). Cancer risk showed little association with fiber density, whereas diabetes risk had a 20% increment HR of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88, 0.98) relative to the HRs for total carbohydrate density. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of postmenopausal US women, CVD risk was associated with high-animal-protein and low-fiber diets, cancer risk was associated with low-carbohydrate diets, and diabetes risk was associated with low-fiber/low-carbohydrate diets.

Four-Day Food Record Macronutrient Intake, With and Without Biomarker Calibration, and Chronic Disease Risk in Postmenopausal Women.

We recently evaluated associations of biomarker-calibrated protein intake, protein density, carbohydrate intake, and carbohydrate density with the incidence of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes among postmenopausal women in the Women's Health Initiative (1993-present, 40 US clinical centers). The biomarkers relied on serum and urine metabolomics profiles, and biomarker calibration used regression of biomarkers on food frequency questionnaires. Here we develop corresponding calibration equations using food records and dietary recalls. In addition, we use calibrated intakes based on food records in disease association estimation in a cohort subset (n = 29,294) having food records. In this analysis, more biomarker variation was explained by food records than by FFQs for absolute macronutrient intake, with 24-hour recalls being intermediate. However, the percentage of biomarker variation explained was similar for each assessment approach for macronutrient densities. Invasive breast cancer risk was related inversely to carbohydrate and protein densities using food records, in analyses that included (calibrated) total energy intake and body mass index. Corresponding analyses for absolute intakes did not differ from the null, nor did absolute or relative intakes associate significantly with colorectal cancer or coronary heart disease. These analyses do not suggest major advantages for food records or dietary recalls in comparison with less costly and logistically simpler food frequency questionnaires for these nutritional variables.