The polymorphic variant of SerpinB3 (SerpinB3-PD) is associated with faster cirrhosis decompensation.

BACKGROUND: SerpinB3 is a cysteine protease inhibitor involved in liver disease progression due to its proinflammatory and profibrogenic properties. The polymorphic variant SerpinB3-PD (SB3-PD), presents a substitution in its reactive centre loop, determining the gain of function. AIMS: To disclose the clinical characteristics of a cohort of patients with cirrhosis in relation to the presence of SB3-PD and to assess the effect of this genetic variant on fibrogenic and inflammatory cytokines in vitro. METHODS: We assessed SB3 polymorphism in 90 patients with cirrhosis, prospectively followed up in our referral centre. We used HepG2 and HuH-7 cells transfected to overexpress either wild-type SB3 (SB3-WT) or SB3-PD to assess their endogenous effect, while LX2 and THP-1 cells were treated with exogenous SB3-WT or SB3-PD proteins. RESULTS: Patients carrying SB3-PD had more severe portal hypertension and higher MELD scores, than patients carrying SB3-WT. In multivariate analysis, SB3-PD was an independent predictor of cirrhosis complications. Patients with SB3-PD polymorphism presented with more severe liver fibrosis and inflammatory features. Hepatoma cells overexpressing SB3-PD showed higher TGF-ß1 expression than controls. The addition of recombinant SB3-PD induced an up-regulation of TGF-ß1 in LX2 cells and a more prominent inflammatory profile in THP-1 cells, compared to the effect of SB3-WT protein. CONCLUSIONS: The polymorphic variant SB3-PD is highly effective in determining activation of TGF-ß1 and inflammation in vitro. Patients with cirrhosis who carry SB3-PD polymorphism may be more prone to develop severe liver disease progression. However, further validation studies are warranted to support the in vivo relevance of this polymorphism.

Novel prognostic biomarkers in decompensated cirrhosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with decompensated cirrhosis experience high mortality rates. Current prognostic scores, including the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), may underperform in settings other than in those they were initially developed. Novel biomarkers have been proposed to improve prognostication accuracy and even to predict development of complications. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on novel urine and blood biomarkers and their ability to predict 90-day mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Secondary outcomes included 28-day and 1-year mortality, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure, acute kidney injury and other complications. To overcome differences in units, temporal changes in assays and reporting heterogeneity, we used the ratio of means (RoM) as measure of association for assessing strength in predicting outcomes. An RoM>1 implies that the mean biomarker level is higher in those that develop the outcome than in those that do not. RESULTS: Of 6629 unique references, 103 were included, reporting on 29 different biomarkers, with a total of 31 362 biomarker patients. Most studies were prospective cohorts of hospitalised patients (median Child-Pugh-Turcotte score of 9 and MELD score of 18). The pooled 90-day mortality rate was 0.27 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.29). The RoM for predicting 90-day mortality was highest for interleukin 6 (IL-6) (2.56, 95% CI 2.39 to 2.74), followed by urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) (2.42, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.66) and copeptin (2.33, 95% CI 2.17 to 2.50). These RoMs were all higher than for MELD (1.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.46). CONCLUSION: Novel biomarkers, including IL-6, uNGAL and copeptin, can probably improve prognostication of patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared with MELD alone.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Impact of bacterial infections prior to liver transplantation on post-transplant outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

Background & Aims: Bacterial infections are frequent in patients with cirrhosis and increase the risk of death and drop-out from liver transplant (LT) waiting list. In patients with bacterial infections, LT is frequently delayed because of the fear of poor outcomes. We evaluated the impact of pre-LT infections on post-LT complications and survival. Methods: From 2012 to 2018, consecutive patients transplanted at the Hospital of Padua were identified and classified in two groups: patients surviving an episode of bacterial infection within 3 months before LT (study group) and patients without infections before LT (control group). Post-LT outcomes (complications, new infections, survival) were collected. Results: A total of 466 LT recipients were identified (study group n = 108; control group n = 358). After LT, the study group had a higher incidence of new bacterial (57% vs. 20%, p <0.001) and fungal infections (14% vs. 5%, p = 0.001) and of septic shock (8% vs. 2%, p = 0.004) than the control group. Along with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and alcohol-related cirrhosis, bacterial infection pre-LT was an independent predictor of post-LT infections (odds ratio = 3.92; p <0.001). Nevertheless, no significant difference was found in 1-year (88% vs. 89%, p = 0.579) and 5-year survival rates (76% vs. 75%, p = 0.829) between the study group and control group. Within the study group, no association was found between the time elapsed from infection improvement/resolution to LT and post-LT outcomes. Conclusions: Patients with pre-LT infections have a higher risk of new bacterial and fungal infections and of septic shock after LT. However, post-LT survival is excellent. Therefore, as soon as the bacterial infection is improving/resolving, transplant should not be delayed, but patients with pre-transplant bacterial infections require active surveillance for infections after LT. Impact and Implications: Bacterial infections increase mortality and delay transplant in patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation (LT). Little is known about the impact of adequately treated infections before LT on post-transplant complications and outcomes. The study highlights that pre-LT infections increase the risk of post-LT infections, but post-LT survival rates are excellent despite the risk. These findings suggest that physicians should not delay LT because of concerns about pre-LT infections, but instead should actively monitor these patients for infections after surgery.

Diagnostic and prognostic performance of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in patients with cirrhosis and acute kidney injury.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) could help discriminate between different etiologies of AKI. The aim of this study was to investigate the use of uNGAL in (1) the differential diagnosis of AKI, (2) predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with hepatorenal syndrome-AKI (HRS-AKI), and (3) predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with AKI. APPROACH AND RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and AKI were included from 2015 to 2020 and followed until transplant, death, or 90 days. Standard urinary markers and uNGAL were measured. Data on treatment, type, and resolution of AKI were collected. Thirty-five patients (21.6%) had prerenal AKI, 64 (39.5%) HRS-AKI, 27 (16.7%) acute tubular necrosis-AKI (ATN-AKI), and 36 (22.2%) a mixed form of AKI. Mean values of uNGAL were significantly higher in ATN-AKI than in other types of AKI (1162 ng/ml [95% CI 423-2105 ng/ml] vs. 109 ng/ml [95% CI 52-192 ng/ml]; p  < 0.001). uNGAL showed a high discrimination ability in predicting ATN-AKI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.854; 95% CI 0.767-0.941; p  < 0.001). The best-performing threshold was found to be 220 ng/ml (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 78%). The same threshold was independently associated with a higher risk of nonresponse (adjusted OR [aOR], 6.17; 95% CI 1.41-27.03; p  = 0.016). In multivariable analysis (adjusted for age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, acute-on-chronic liver failure, leukocytes, and type of AKI), uNGAL was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (aOR, 1.74; 95% CI 1.26-2.38; p  = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: uNGAL is an adequate biomarker for making a differential diagnosis of AKI in cirrhosis and predicting the response to terlipressin and albumin in patients with HRS-AKI. In addition, it is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality.

Risk of further decompensation/mortality in patients with cirrhosis and ascites as the first single decompensation event.

Background & Aims: Although ascites is the most frequent first decompensating event in cirrhosis, the clinical course after ascites as the single index decompensation is not well defined. The aim of this multicentre study was thus to systematically investigate the incidence and type of further decompensation after ascites as the first decompensating event and to assess risk factors for mortality. Methods: A total of 622 patients with cirrhosis presenting with grade 2/3 ascites as the single index decompensating event at 2 university hospitals (Padova and Vienna) between 2003 and 2021 were included. Events of further decompensation, liver transplantation, and death were recorded. Results: The mean age was 57 ± 11 years, and most patients were male (n = 423, 68%) with alcohol-related (n = 366, 59%) and viral (n = 200,32%) liver disease as the main aetiologies. In total, 323 (52%) patients presented with grade 2 and 299 (48%) with grade 3 ascites. The median Child-Pugh score at presentation was 8 (IQR 7-9), and the mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was 15 ± 6. During a median follow-up period of 49 months, 350 (56%) patients experienced further decompensation: refractory ascites (n = 130, 21%), hepatic encephalopathy (n = 112, 18%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 32, 5%), hepatorenal syndrome-acute kidney injury (n = 29, 5%). Variceal bleeding as an isolated further decompensation event was rare (n = 18, 3%), whereas non-bleeding further decompensation (n = 161, 26%) and ≥2 concomitant further decompensation events (n = 171, 27%) were frequent. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was used in only 81 (13%) patients. In patients presenting with grade 2 ascites, MELD ≥15 indicated a considerable risk for further decompensation (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 2.18; p <0.001; 1-year incidences: <10: 10% vs. 10-14: 13% vs. ≥15: 28%) and of mortality (SHR 1.89; p = 0.004; 1-year incidences: <10: 3% vs. 10-14: 6% vs. ≥15: 14%). Importantly, mortality was similarly high throughout MELD strata in grade 3 ascites (p = n.s. for different MELD strata; 1-year incidences: <10: 14% vs. 10-14: 15% vs. ≥15: 20%). Conclusions: Further decompensation is frequent in patients with ascites as a single index decompensation event and only rarely owing to bleeding. Although patients with grade 2 ascites and MELD <15 seem to have a favourable prognosis, those with grade 3 ascites are at a high risk of mortality across all MELD strata. Lay summary: Decompensation (the development of symptoms as a result of worsening liver function) marks a turning point in the disease course for patients with cirrhosis. Ascites (i.e. , the accumulation of fluid in the abdomen) is the most common first decompensating event, yet little is known about the clinical course of patients who develop ascites as a single first decompensating event. Herein, we show that the severity of ascites is associated with mortality and that in patients with moderate ascites, the widely used prognostic MELD score can predict patient outcomes.

Outcomes and Mortality of Grade 1 Ascites and Recurrent Ascites in Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ascites has been classified according to quantity and response to medical therapy. Despite its precise definitions, little is known about the effects of grade 1 ascites or recurrent ascites (i.e. ascites that recurs at least on 3 occasions within a 12-month period despite dietary sodium restriction and adequate diuretic dosage) on patient outcome. We studied progression of grade 1 ascites and recurrent ascites in a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a post-hoc analysis of data from 547 outpatients with cirrhosis (259 without ascites, 54 patients with grade 1 ascites, 234 with grade 2 or 3 ascites) who participated a care management program study in Italy from March 2003 through September 2017. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory data and patients were evaluated at least every 6 months. Patients received abdominal ultrasound analysis at study inclusion and at least twice a year. Number and volume of paracentesis were collected, when available. Patients were followed until death, liver transplantation, or March 2018. The median follow-up time was 29 months. Primary outcomes were mortality and development of complications of cirrhosis. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in 60-month transplant-free survival between patients with grade 1 vs grade 2 or 3 ascites (36% vs 43%) but survival was significantly lower when both groups were compared with patients without ascites (68%; P < .001 for both comparisons). However, the grade of systemic inflammation and the rate of complications were significantly greater in patients with grade 1 ascites than in patients without ascites, but significantly lower than in patients with grade 2 or 3 ascites. Development of grade 2 or 3 ascites did not differ significantly between patients with no ascites vs grade 1 ascites (10% vs 14%). There was no significant difference in 36-month transplant-free survival between patients with ascites responsive to medical treatment vs recurrent ascites (78% vs 62%), whereas patients with refractory ascites had significantly lower survival than patients with responsive or recurrent ascites (23%; responsive vs refractory ascites P<.001; recurrent vs refractory ascites P = .022). CONCLUSIONS: In an analysis of data from a large cohort of outpatients with cirrhosis, we found that grade 1 ascites is associated with systemic inflammation, more complications, and increased mortality compared with no ascites. Mortality does not differ significantly between patients with recurrent ascites vs ascites responsive to medical treatment.