The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

BACKGROUND: Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs. METHODS: SAVM compares two scenarios. The No-NVP scenario projects smoking rates in the absence of NVPs using population projections, deaths rates, life expectancy, and smoking prevalence. The NVP scenario models vaping prevalence and its impact on smoking once NVPs became popular. NVP use impact is estimated as the difference in smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths (SVADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) between the No-NVP and NVP scenarios. We illustrate SAVM's adaptation to the German adult ages 18+ population, the Germany-SAVM by adjusting the model using population, mortality, smoking and NVP use data. RESULTS: Assuming that the excess NVP mortality risk is 5% that of smoking, Germany-SAVM projected 4.7 million LYLs and almost 300,000 SVADs averted associated with NVP use from 2012 to 2060. Increasing the excess NVP mortality risk to 40% with other rates constant resulted in averted 2.8 million LYLs and 200,000 SVADs during the same period. CONCLUSIONS: SAVM enables non-modelers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to analyze the potential population health effects of NVP use and public health interventions.

Potential Implications for Tobacco Industry Transformation of the Acquisition of Swedish Match by Philip Morris International.

Philip Morris International's recent purchase of Swedish Match may prove to be a vital tobacco industry development. We focus on PMIs potential progress in moving from primarily selling cigarettes toward primarily selling noncombustible nicotine delivery products (NCNDPs). We also consider the potential contribution of the acquisition to industry transformation whereby other cigarette firms may potentially move toward primarily selling NCNDPs. We examine the potential impact on noncombustible nicotine delivery product use, including nicotine pouches (a major Swedish Match product), e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and, most importantly, on sales of the industry's staple, combustible cigarettes. We focus on the United States as a special case, where PMI is limited from entering the cigarette market. Implications: Philip Morris International's purchase of Swedish Match and policies regarding nicotine pouches (NPs) have been overlooked in the tobacco control literature. The acquisition indicates the importance of the NP market to the largest nonstate-owned tobacco company. The acquisition has the potential through pricing and marketing tactics to either encourage or discourage the use of NPs, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products, and most importantly cigarettes. Due to its inability to sell cigarettes in the United States, PMI will have incentives to use its alternative nicotine delivery products, including its newly acquired NPs, to reduce the sale of cigarettes by other companies. However, the potential effects in other countries, where PMI does sell cigarettes, are less clear. Monitoring and analyzing tobacco company acquisitions is essential to studying future transitions in using different kinds of tobacco products, especially from cigarettes to lower-risk alternative nicotine delivery products.

Chemical Profiles and Toxicity of Electronic Cigarettes: An Umbrella Review and Methodological Considerations.

BACKGROUND: Electronic cigarettes (ECs) are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible tobacco products. The global EC market has rapidly expanded since their introduction, creating an urgent need for research describing the toxicity and chemical composition of ECs. We conducted an umbrella review to summarize the evidence from existing systematic reviews (SRs). METHODS: The search for SRs was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. RESULTS: Twenty-five SRs were included in our umbrella review. Chemical profiles widely varied across studies included in the reviews, which was mainly attributed to the lack of standardized protocols investigating the constituents, and differences in EC devices and e-liquids tested. Metals were more abundant in some EC aerosols than cigarettes, while carbonyls were typically found at lower levels. There was consistent evidence of in vitro toxicity from EC aerosol and e-liquid exposure. AMSTAR-2 revealed important limitations across reviews. CONCLUSIONS: While most reviews concluded that ECs were likely less harmful than cigarettes, there was hesitancy to draw clear conclusions due to variable analytical procedures and inconsistent findings among the included studies. Future SRs with improved methodology and reporting are needed to adequately inform tobacco regulatory actions.

Public health impact of a US ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars: a simulation study.

INTRODUCTION: The US Food and Drug Administration most recently announced its intention to ban menthol cigarettes and cigars nationwide in April 2021. Implementation of the ban will require evidence that it would improve public health. This paper simulates the potential public health impact of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars through its impacts on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and switching to nicotine vaping products (NVPs). METHODS: After calibrating an established US simulation model to reflect recent use trends in cigarette and NVP use, we extended the model to incorporate menthol and non-menthol cigarette use under a status quo scenario. Applying estimates from a recent expert elicitation on the behavioural impacts of a menthol ban, we developed a menthol ban scenario with the ban starting in 2021. We estimated the public health impact as the difference between smoking and vaping-attributable deaths and life-years lost in the status quo scenario and the menthol ban scenario from 2021 to 2060. RESULTS: As a result of the ban, overall smoking was estimated to decline by 15% as early as 2026 due to menthol smokers quitting both NVP and combustible use or switching to NVPs. These transitions are projected to reduce cumulative smoking and vaping-attributable deaths from 2021 to 2060 by 5% (650 000 in total) and reduce life-years lost by 8.8% (11.3 million). Sensitivity analyses showed appreciable public health benefits across different parameter specifications. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Our findings strongly support the implementation of a ban on menthol in cigarettes and cigars.

A Decision-Theoretic Public Health Framework for Heated Tobacco and Nicotine Vaping Products.

Markets for nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and heated tobacco products (HTPs) have grown as these products became positioned as harm-reduction alternatives to combusted tobacco products. Herein, we present a public health decision-theoretic framework incorporating different patterns of HTP, NVP, and cigarette use to examine their impacts on population health. Our framework demonstrates that, for individuals who would have otherwise smoked, HTP use may provide public health benefits by enabling cessation or by discouraging smoking initiation and relapse. However, the benefits are reduced if more harmful HTP use replaces less harmful NVP use. HTP use may also negatively impact public health by encouraging smoking by otherwise non-smokers or by encouraging initiation or relapse into smoking. These patterns are directly influenced by industry behavior as well as public policy towards HTPs, NVPs, and cigarettes. While substantial research has been devoted to NVPs, much less is known about HTPs. Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products. While our analysis provides a framework for gaining that information, it also illustrates the complexities in distinguishing key factors.

Health Effects of Electronic Cigarettes: An Umbrella Review and Methodological Considerations.

E-cigarettes are often marketed as a safer alternative to combustible cigarettes. However, their health effects, especially those associated with long-term use, remain largely uncertain. We conducted an umbrella review of the cardiopulmonary and carcinogenic risks of e-cigarette use, distinguishing between short-term and long-term health effects. The search for systematic reviews was conducted across four electronic databases through 25 January 2022. Methodological quality was assessed using the AMSTAR-2 quality appraisal tool. Seventeen systematic reviews, including five meta-analyses, were included in our umbrella review. There was a clear underreporting of e-cigarette devices and e-liquid types, e-cigarette and cigarette exposure, and the health and smoking status of study participants. Overall, the findings suggest that short-term use of e-cigarettes may be associated with acute cardiopulmonary risks, although to a lesser extent than cigarette use. Long-term e-cigarette use may have pulmonary/respiratory benefits in those who switch from chronic cigarette smoking, particularly in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Evidence on intermediate and long-term carcinogenic effects is lacking. This umbrella review underscores the urgent need for systematic reviews with better adherence to established reporting guidelines, consistent definitions of duration of e-cigarette use, a focus on newer devices, and accounting for the impacts of former or current smoking.

Tobacco retail availability and cigarette and e-cigarette use among youth and adults: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVE: States and localities are formulating strategies to reduce the widespread retail availability of tobacco products. Evidence of associations between retailer density/proximity and tobacco use outcomes can help inform those strategies. We conducted a scoping review on tobacco retail availability and cigarette/e-cigarette use in adults and youth, and considered variations in spatial units, measures of retailer exposure and outcomes across studies. METHODS: A systematic search for studies examining the association between retailer density/proximity and youth and adult cigarette/e-cigarette use was conducted across MEDLINE (PubMed), Web of Science and Google Scholar through 27 August 2020 with no restrictions. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies were included in our qualitative synthesis. While there were differences in neighbourhood definitions (eg, egocentric vs administrative), there is evidence for a positive association between higher retailer density in egocentric neighbourhoods around homes and current smoking in adults and adolescents. Administrative unit measures in some studies showed associations with adult current smoking, and adolescent lifetime and current smoking. Studies on tobacco outlet proximity to homes obtained mixed results. Density/proximity of tobacco outlets around schools showed no or inverse association with adolescent smoking, but suggests higher susceptibility to smoking. Evidence of an association between e-cigarette retail availability and e-cigarette use is limited due to a small number of studies. CONCLUSION: The current literature provides limited empirical evidence of the association between tobacco retailer availability and smoking or e-cigarette use. More research with uniform measures of environmental exposure to tobacco retailers is needed to allow for greater comparability between studies.

US Nicotine Vaping Product SimSmoke Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths.

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.e., in the absence of NVPs) while controlling for the impact of cigarette-oriented policies. The net impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing the projected No-NVP smoking trends to corresponding trends from two US national surveys. Using the TUS-CPS estimates for the period 2012-2018, we estimate that adult smoking prevalence declined in relative terms by 9.7% (95% CI: 7.5-11.7%) for males and 10.7% (95% CI: 9.1-13.0%) for females. Compared to NHIS, smoking prevalence declined by 10.7% (95% CI: 6.8-14.6%) for males and 11.3% (95% CI: 7.4-15.6%) for females. These impacts were confined mainly to ages 18-44. Vaping-related reductions in smoking prevalence were projected to avert nearly 0.4 million SADs between 2012 and 2052. Our analysis indicates that NVP use is associated with substantial reductions in US smoking prevalence among younger adults.

An Expert Elicitation on the Effects of a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes and Cigars in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: The US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health. AIMS AND METHODS: We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. We developed and pilot tested a questionnaire that focused on tobacco use transitions of current smokers (age 18-24 menthol, age 35-54 menthol, and age 35-54 nonmenthol) and potential menthol smokers (age 12-24). Using a structured expert elicitation, we estimated mean net transitions under a ban from cigarette use to combustible tobacco product, smokeless tobacco, novel nicotine delivery product (NNDPs, such as e-cigarettes) use, or no tobacco use. RESULTS: Eleven experts provided responses. Of those ages 12-24 who would have initiated menthol cigarette use in the absence of a ban, the experts estimated that 41% would still initiate combustible products under a ban, while 18% would initiate with NNDPs and 39% would not initiate regular tobacco use. Combustible use by menthol smokers ages 35-54 was expected to decline by 20% postban relative to preban rates, half switching to NNDPs and half quitting all tobacco use. Menthol smokers ages 18-24 were expected to reduce combustible use by 30%, with 16% switching to NNDPs. Greater reductions in combustible use were estimated for African Americans across the three age groups. Negligible impacts were expected for current adult nonmenthol smokers. CONCLUSIONS: According to expert opinion, a menthol ban is expected to substantially reduce smoking initiation and combustible tobacco product use among current menthol smokers. IMPLICATIONS: The US Food and Drug Administration recently announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes, but information on the potential impact on smoking and other nicotine product use is limited. We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States. A panel of experts estimated that menthol smokers ages 35-54 would reduce combustible tobacco use by 20%, with half switching to e-cigarettes and half quitting all nicotine use. Larger reductions were expected at younger ages, and menthol smoking initiation was reduced by 59% with 18% instead using e-cigarettes. African Americans were expected to have greater reductions in combustible tobacco use than the rest of the population.

England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Whereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England. DESIGN: Indirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths. SETTING: England, 2000-2019. PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative sample of population. MEASUREMENTS: England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453-199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: An indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012-2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.