Fall Ascertainment and Development of a Risk Prediction Model Using Electronic Medical Records.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the use of electronic medical record (EMR) data to ascertain falls and develop a fall risk prediction model in an older population. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study using 10 years of EMR data (2004-2014). A series of 3-year cohorts included members continuously enrolled for a minimum of 3 years, requiring 2 years pre-fall (no previous record of a fall) and a 1-year fall risk period. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, an ambulatory setting. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 57 678 adults, age 60 years and older. MEASUREMENTS: Initial EMR searches were guided by current literature and geriatricians to understand coding sources of falls as our outcome. Falls were captured by two coding sources: International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes (E880-889) and/or a fall listed as a "primary reason for visit." A comprehensive list of EMR predictors of falls were included into prediction models enabling statistical subset selection from many variables and modeling by logistic regression. RESULTS: Although 72% of falls in the training data set were coded as "primary reason for visit," 22% of falls were coded as ICD-9 and 6% coded as both. About 80% were reported in face-to-face encounters (eg, emergency department). A total of 2164 individuals had a fall in the risk period. Using the 13 key predictors (age, comorbidities, female sex, other mental disorder, walking issues, Parkinson's disease, urinary incontinence, depression, polypharmacy, psychotropic and anticonvulsant medications, osteoarthritis, osteoporosis) identified through LASSO regression, the final model had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 8%, negative predictive value of 98%, and area under the curve of .74. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated how the EMR can be used to ascertain falls and develop a fall risk prediction model with moderate sensitivity/specificity. Concurrent work with clinical providers to enhance fall documentation will improve the ability of the EMR to capture falls and consequently may improve the model to predict fall risk.

A Point System to Forecast Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Before and After Treatment Among Persons with Chronic Hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may be difficult to determine in the clinical setting. AIM: Develop a scoring system to forecast HCC risk among patients with chronic hepatitis C. METHODS: Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study collected during 2005-2014, we derived HCC risk scores for males and females using an extended Cox model with aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a time-dependent variables and mean Kaplan-Meier survival functions from patient data at two study sites, and used data collected at two separate sites for external validation. For model calibration, we used the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino goodness-of-fit statistic to examine differences between predicted and observed risk. RESULTS: Of 12,469 patients (1628 with a history of sustained viral response [SVR]), 504 developed HCC; median follow-up was 6 years. Final predictors in the model included age, alcohol abuse, interferon-based treatment response, and APRI. Point values, ranging from -3 to 14 (males) and -3 to 12 (females), were established using hazard ratios of the predictors aligned with 1-, 3-, and 5-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities of HCC. Discriminatory capacity was high (c-index 0.82 males and 0.84 females) and external calibration demonstrated no differences between predicted and observed HCC risk for 1-, 3-, and 5-year forecasts among males (all p values >0.97) and for 3- and 5-year risk among females (all p values >0.87). CONCLUSION: This scoring system, based on age, alcohol abuse history, treatment response, and APRI, can be used to forecast up to a 5-year risk of HCC among hepatitis C patients before and after SVR.

Infrequent Clinical Assessment of Chronic Hepatitis B Patients in United States General Healthcare Settings.

Among 2338 chronic hepatitis B patients followed during 2006-2013 in the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study, 78% had ≥1 alanine aminotransferase and 37% had ≥1 hepatitis B virus DNA level assessed annually. Among cirrhotic patients, 46% never had hepatic imaging. Patients in this cohort were insufficiently monitored for disease activity and hepatocellular carcinoma.

Prevalence of Renal Impairment and Associated Conditions Among HCV-Infected Persons in the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS).

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the treatment of HCV-infected persons were updated in August 2015 with new recommendations for patients with renal impairment. Treatment is imperative for patients with severe, renal-associated extrahepatic manifestations of HCV infection. AIMS: We sought to describe the prevalence of these conditions among current HCV-infected patients in a population-based prospective, observational cohort study at four large US health systems. METHODS: Data from cohort patients with chronic HCV infection during 2012 were analyzed for the period from 2006 to 2013. We determined the prevalence of mild to moderately impaired renal function defined as having the most recent estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 80 ml/min/1.73 m(2), with severe impairment defined as eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2), based on the treatment guidelines. Prevalence of extrahepatic conditions was ascertained using ICD9-codes. RESULTS: Among 5772 persons, the prevalence of eGFR ≤ 80 was 33 % and eGFR < 30 was 2 %, including among patients with hepatic fibrosis. Diagnosed extrahepatic renal manifestations were rare: vasculitis- 0.2 %, nephrotic syndrome- 0.3 %, and cryoglobulinemia- 0.9 %. CONCLUSIONS: While the prevalence of severe renal impairment and diagnosed extrahepatic manifestations was low, mild-to-moderate renal impairment was common in HCV patients, including those with advanced liver fibrosis for whom the need for treatment is urgent.

All-Cause Mortality and Progression Risks to Hepatic Decompensation and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Infected With Hepatitis C Virus.

BACKGROUND: A key question in care of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is beginning treatment immediately vs delaying treatment. Risks of mortality and disease progression in "real world" settings are important to assess the implications of delaying HCV treatment. METHODS: This was a cohort study of HCV patients identified from 4 integrated health systems in the United States who had liver biopsies during 2001-2012. The probabilities of death and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation (hepatic encephalopathy, esophageal varices, ascites, or portal hypertension) or liver transplant were estimated over 1, 2, or 5 years by fibrosis stage (Metavir F0-F4) determined by biopsy at beginning of observation. RESULTS: Among 2799 HCV-monoinfected patients who had a qualifying liver biopsy, the mean age at the time of biopsy was 50.7 years. The majority were male (58.9%) and non-Hispanic white (66.9%). Over a mean observation of 5.0 years, 261 (9.3%) patients died and 34 (1.2%) received liver transplants. At 5 years after biopsy, the estimated risk of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma was 37.2% in stage F4, 19.6% in F3, 4.7% in F2, and 2.3% in F0-F1 patients. Baseline biopsy stage F3 or F4 and platelet count below normal were the strongest predictors of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: The risks of death and progression to liver failure varied greatly by fibrosis stage. Clinicians and policy makers could use these progression risk data in prioritization and in determining the timing of treatment for patients in early stages of liver disease.

Changes in use of lipid-lowering medications among black and white dual enrollees with diabetes transitioning from Medicaid to Medicare Part D drug coverage.

BACKGROUND: The use of lipid-lowering agents is suboptimal among dual enrollees, particularly blacks. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether the removal of restrictive drug caps under Medicare Part D reduced racial differences among dual enrollees with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN: An interrupted time series with comparison series design (ITS) cohort study. SUBJECTS: A total of 8895 black and white diabetes patients aged 18 years and older drawn from a nationally representative sample of fee-for-service dual enrollees (January 2004-December 2007) in states with and without drug caps before Part D. MEASURES: We examined the monthly (1) proportion of patients with any use of lipid-lowering therapies; and (2) intensity of use. Stratification measures included age (less than 65, 65 y and older), race (white vs. black), and sex. RESULTS: At baseline, lipid-lowering drug use was higher in no drug cap states (drug cap: 54.0% vs. nondrug cap: 66.8%) and among whites versus blacks (drug cap: 58.5% vs. 44.9%, no drug cap: 68.4% vs. 61.9%). In strict drug cap states only, Part D was associated with an increase in the proportion with any use [nonelderly: +0.07 absolute percentage points (95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.09), P<0.001; elderly: +0.08 (0.06-0.10), P<0.001] regardless of race. However, we found no evidence of a change in the white-black gap in the proportion of users despite the removal of a significant financial barrier. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare Part D was associated with increased use of lipid-lowering drugs, but racial gaps persisted. Understanding non-coverage-related barriers is critical in maximizing the potential benefits of coverage expansions for disparities reduction.