[Prediction of cancer incidence and prevalence in Iceland up to the year 2040 - Icelandic Cancer Registry and Research Center].

INTRODUCTION: A large increase in new cancer cases is predicted worldwide, due to population growth, ageing and increased cancer risk. The age distribution of the Icelandic population is different from the other Nordic countries. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of new cancer cases in Iceland and other Nordic countries, and cancer survivors in Iceland, up to the year 2040. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Information on cancer diagnoses was retrieved from The Icelandic Cancer Registry and information on population projections from Statistics Iceland. Well known methods for population projection were used to predict the number of new cancer cases in 2040, but adjusted to consider Icelandic circumstances. It is also based on more recent data than is accessible elsewhere. Three different methods were used to estimate the number of survivors in 2040 and are presented here for the first time. RESULTS: In 2040 the predicted yearly average number of new cancer cases in Iceland will be up to 2,903 [95% CI 2.841-2.956], a 57% increase compared with 2022. The increase is higher in Iceland than in other Nordic countries (Norway 41%, Sweden 24%, Denmark 23%, Finland 21%). In 2022, the number of cancer survivors was around 17,500 and is predicted to be between 24,500 and 31,000 in 2040. CONCLUSION: The main reason for the predicted increase of cancer cases and survivors is population trends, especially the ageing of the population. This expected increase in the number of cancer patients and improved survival will increase the demand for healthcare.

[Cancer registration in Iceland for 70 years - incidence, mortality and survival].

INTRODUCTION: The Icelandic Cancer Registry (ICR) was founded seventy years ago by the Icelandic Cancer Society. In 2007 the ICR became one of the health registers of the Directorate of Health. In this paper we present cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Iceland over 70 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The ICR receives information on cancer diagnoses from histopathological laboratories, the Hospital Discharge Registry and the Cause of Death Registry. Iceland participates in the Nordic cancer database NORDCAN. Because of the small population size, random variation in numbers is very prominent. Therefore, data from ICR are published as five-year averages. RESULTS: For all malignancies combined, age-standardized incidence (ASI) in men rose steadily until around 15 years ago when a decline started. This is in line with prostate- and lung cancer incidence trends. In women, the ASI was lower than in men, but it is still on the rise despite declining lung cancer incidence. ASI for breast cancer, the most common cancer in women, is increasing. Simultaneously, cancer mortality for both sexes has declined in recent years and cancer survival is improving. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based cancer registration for over 70 years makes it possible to monitor the epidemiology of cancer in Iceland and compare with other countries. The changes in trends in ASI are in line with changes of cancer risk factors and diagnostic policy. The decline in cancer mortality and improvement in survival reflects advances in cancer treatment as well as effects of early detection and prevention.

Occupation and tongue cancer in Nordic countries.

PURPOSE: Almost 200,000 tongue cancers were diagnosed worldwide in 2020. The aim of this study was to describe occupational risk variation in this malignancy. METHODS: The data are based on the Nordic Occupational Cancer (NOCCA) study containing 14.9 million people from the Nordic countries with 9020 tongue cancers diagnosed during 1961-2005. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of tongue cancer in each occupational category was calculated using national incidence rates as the reference. RESULTS: Among men, the incidence was statistically significantly elevated in waiters (SIR 4.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.13--5.92), beverage workers (SIR 3.42, 95% CI 2.02-5.40), cooks and stewards (SIR 2.55, 95% CI 1.82-3.48), seamen (SIR 1.66, 95% CI 1.36-2.00), journalists (SIR 1.85, 95% CI 1.18-2.75), artistic workers (SIR 2.05, 95% CI 1.54-2.66), hairdressers (SIR 2.17, 95% CI 1.39-3.22), and economically inactive persons (SIR 1.57, 95% CI 1.42-1.73). Among women, the SIR was statistically significantly elevated only in waitresses (SIR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05-1.81). Statistically significant SIRs ≤ 0.63 were observed in male farmers, gardeners, forestry workers and teachers, and in female launderers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may be related to consumption of alcohol and tobacco, but the effect of carcinogenic exposure from work cannot be excluded.