Comparison of Outcomes for Patients Treated by Allopathic vs Osteopathic Surgeons.

Importance: There are 2 degree programs for licensed physicians in the US: allopathic medical doctorate (MD) and osteopathic doctorate (DO). However, evidence is limited as to whether outcomes differ between patients treated by MD vs DO surgeons. Objective: To evaluate differences in surgical outcomes and practice patterns by surgeon medical school training (MD vs DO). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used 100% Medicare claims data from inpatient hospitals providing surgical services from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019 among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 to 99 years who underwent 1 of the 14 most common surgical procedures. Data analysis was performed from January 17, 2023, to August 13, 2024. Exposure: Medical school degree (MD vs DO). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, and the secondary outcomes were readmissions and length of stay. To assess differences between surgeons by medical school training, a multivariable linear probability model was used, which was adjusted for hospital fixed effects and patient, procedure, and surgeon characteristics. Results: Of the 2 360 108 total surgical procedures analyzed, 2 154 562 (91.3%) were performed by MD surgeons, and 205 546 (8.7%) were performed by DO surgeons. Of 43 651 total surgeons, most surgeons were MDs (39 339 [90.1%]), the median (SD) age was 49.0 (9.8) years, and 6649 surgeons (15.2%) were female. The mean (SD) age of patients undergoing surgical procedures was 74.9 (6.7) years, 1 353 818 of 2 360 108 patients (57.4%) were female, and 2 110 611 patients (89.4%) self-reported as White. DO surgeons were significantly more likely to operate on older patients (DO patient mean [SD] age: 75.3 [7.1] years; MD patient mean [SD] age: 74.8 [6.6]), female patients (DO: 60.2% of patients; MD: 57.1% of patients), and Medicaid dual-eligible patients (DO: 10.3% of patients; MD: 8.6% of patients). DOs performed a lower proportion of elective operations (DO: 74.2% vs MD: 80.2%) and were more likely to work in public hospitals (DO: 10.3%; MD: 9.5%) and nonteaching hospitals (DO: 57.9%; MD: 68.1%). There was no evidence that 30-day mortality differed between MD and DO surgeons (adjusted mortality rate, DO: 1.61%; MD: 1.58%; absolute risk difference [aRD], -0.04 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.11 to 0.04; P = .37). On secondary analyses, no difference was found in 30-day readmissions or length of stay between MD and DO surgeons. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study using Medicare data, there was no evidence that patient outcomes differed between MD and DO surgeons for common operations after adjusting for patient factors and practice settings.

Superstition in Surgery: A Population-Based Cohort Study to Assess the Association Between Surgery on Friday the 13th and Postoperative Outcomes.

Objective: We sought to examine whether the outcomes of patients who receive a surgical procedure on Friday the 13th differ from patients who receive surgery on flanking Fridays. Background: Numerous studies have demonstrated that increased anxiety from the provider or patient around the time of surgery can lead to worse outcomes. Superstitious patients often express significant concern and anxiety when undergoing a surgical procedure on Friday the 13th. Methods: A retrospective, population-based cohort study of 19,747 adults undergoing 1 of 25 common surgical procedures on Friday the 13th or flanking control Fridays (Friday the 6th and Friday the 20th) between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2019, with 1 year of follow-up. The main outcomes included death, readmission, and complications at 30 days (short-term), 90 days (intermediate-term), and 1 year (long-term). Results: A total of 7,349 (37.2%) underwent surgery on Friday the 13th, and 12,398 (62.8%) underwent surgery on a flanking Friday during the study period. Patient characteristics were similar between the 2 groups. We found no evidence that patients receiving surgery on Friday the 13th group were more likely to experience the composite primary outcome at 30 days [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.02 (95% CI = 0.94-1.09)], 90 days [aOR = 0.97 (95% CI = 0.90-1.04)], and 1 year [aOR = 0.99 (95% CI = 0.94-1.04)] after surgery. Conclusion: Patients receiving surgery on Friday the 13th do not appear to fare worse than those treated on ordinary Fridays with respect to the composite outcome.

Association between physician age and patterns of end-of-life care among older Americans.

BACKGROUND: End-of-life (EOL) care patterns may differ by physician age given differences in how physicians are trained or changes associated with aging. We sought to compare patterns of EOL care delivered to older Americans according to physician age. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of a 20% sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥66 years who died in 2016-2019 (n = 487,293). We attributed beneficiaries to the physician who had >50% of primary care visits during the last 6 months of life. We compared beneficiary-level outcomes by physician age (<40, 40-49, 50-59, or ≥60) in two areas: (1) advance care planning (ACP) and palliative care; and (2) high-intensity care at the EOL. RESULTS: Beneficiaries attributed to younger physicians had slightly higher proportions of billed ACP (adjusted proportions, 17.1%, 16.1%, 15.5%, and 14.0% for physicians aged <40, 40-49, 50-59, and ≥60, respectively; p-for-trend adjusted for multiple comparisons <0.001) and palliative care counseling or hospice use in the last 180 days of life (64.5%, 63.6%, 61.9%, and 60.8%; p-for-trend <0.001). Similarly, physicians' younger age was associated with slightly lower proportions of emergency department visits (57.4%, 57.0%, 57.4%, and 58.1%; p-for-trend <0.001), hospital admissions (51.2%, 51.1%, 51.4%, and 52.1%; p-for-trend <0.001), intensive care unit admissions (27.8%, 27.9%, 28.2%, and 28.3%; p-for-trend = 0.03), or mechanical ventilation or cardiopulmonary resuscitation (14.2, 14.9%, 15.2%, and 15.3%; p-for-trend <0.001) in the last 30 days of life, and in-hospital death (20.2%, 20.6%, 21.3%, and 21.5%; p-for-trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We found that differences in patterns of EOL care between beneficiaries cared for by younger and older physicians were small, and thus, not clinically meaningful. Future research is warranted to understand the factors that can influence patterns of EOL care provided by physicians, including initial and continuing medical education.

Comparison of Postoperative outcomes Among Patients Treated by Male Versus Female Surgeons: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare clinical outcomes of patients treated by female surgeons versus those treated by male surgeons. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: It remains unclear as to whether surgical performance and outcomes differ between female and male surgeons. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis to compare patients' clinical outcomes-including patients' postoperative mortality, readmission, and complication rates-between female versus male surgeons. MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, ICTRP, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched from inception to September 8, 2022. The update search was conducted on July 19, 2023. We used random-effects models to synthesize data and GRADE to evaluate the certainty. RESULTS: A total of 15 retrospective cohort studies provided data on 5,448,121 participants. We found that patients treated by female surgeons experienced a lower post-operative mortality compared with patients treated by male surgeons (8 studies; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.93; 95%CI, 0.88 - 0.97; I2=27%; moderate certainty of the evidence). We found a similar pattern for both elective and non-elective (emergent or urgent) surgeries, although the difference was larger for elective surgeries (test for subgroup difference P=0.003). We found no evidence that female and male surgeons differed for patient readmission (3 studies; aOR, 1.20; 95%CI, 0.83 - 1.74; I2=92%; very low certainty of the evidence) or complication rates (8 studies; aOR, 0.94; 95%CI, 0.88 - 1.01: I2=38%; very low certainty of the evidence). CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests that patients treated by female surgeons have a lower mortality compared with those treated by male surgeons.

Depression Onset After a Spouse's Cardiovascular Event.

Importance: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a known risk factor for depression, evidence is lacking regarding whether and to what extent a spouse's CVD is associated with the subsequent mental health of individuals. Objective: To examine the association between CVD onset in spouses and subsequent depression. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined 277 142 matched married couples enrolled in the Japan Health Insurance Association health insurance program between April 2015 and March 2022, covering approximately 40% of the working-age population in Japan. Index individuals (primary insured) whose spouses (dependent) experienced incident CVD between April 2016 and March 2022 were 1:1 matched to controls whose spouses did not experience CVD. Matching was based on age, sex, income, or the onset date of the spouses' CVD. Data analysis was conducted from April 2016 to March 2022. Exposure: Spousal onset of CVD between fiscal years 2016 and 2021. The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision codes were used to identify the composite CVD outcomes (stroke, heart failure, and myocardial infarction). Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate the association between spouses' new-onset CVD and individuals' depression, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and comorbidities of index individuals (diabetes, hypertension, and CVD) and spouses (diabetes, hypertension, and depression). Subgroup analyses were conducted according to sex, age, income levels, and history of CVD. Results: Among 277 142 matched pairs of married couples, 263 610 (95.1%) had a male index individual; the mean (SD) age of index individuals was 58.2 (10.2) years. A new onset of depression was observed in 4876 individuals (1.8%). In multivariable Cox models, there was an association between the spouse's CVD and the individuals' depression (hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.07-1.20]). The subgroup analysis found no evidence of heterogeneity in sex, age, income level, or CVD history. The results were consistent when additionally adjusted for health behaviors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and use of antihypertensive drugs) and objectively measured physical health conditions (body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, glucose levels, and estimated glomerular filtration rate) (hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.06-1.28]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this nationwide cohort study of matched couples, a spouse's onset of CVD was associated with an increased risk of an individual's depression. These findings highlight the importance of preventive care for mental health disorders in individuals whose spouses experience incident CVD.

Changes in surgical mortality during COVID-19 pandemic by patients' race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status among US older adults: a quasi-experimental event study model.

OBJECTIVES: To examine changes in the 30-day surgical mortality rate after common surgical procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigate whether its impact varies by urgency of surgery or patient race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status. DESIGN: We used a quasi-experimental event study design to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgical mortality rate, using patients who received the same procedure in the prepandemic years (2016-2019) as the control, adjusting for patient characteristics and hospital fixed effects (effectively comparing patients treated at the same hospital). We conducted stratified analyses by procedure urgency, patient race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status (dual-Medicaid status and median household income). SETTING: Acute care hospitals in the USA. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65-99 years who underwent one of 14 common surgical procedures from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day postoperative mortality rate. RESULTS: Our sample included 3 620 689 patients. Surgical mortality was higher during the pandemic, with peak mortality observed in April 2020 (adjusted risk difference (aRD) +0.95 percentage points (pp); 95% CI +0.76 to +1.26 pp; p<0.001) and mortality remained elevated through 2020. The effect of the pandemic on mortality was larger for non-elective (vs elective) procedures (April 2020: aRD +0.44 pp (+0.16 to +0.72 pp); p=0.002 for elective; aRD +1.65 pp (+1.00, +2.30 pp); p<0.001 for non-elective). We found no evidence that the pandemic mortality varied by patients' race and ethnicity (p for interaction=0.29), or socioeconomic status (p for interaction=0.49). CONCLUSIONS: 30-day surgical mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic peaked in April 2020 and remained elevated until the end of the year. The influence of the pandemic on surgical mortality did not vary by patient race and ethnicity or socioeconomic status, indicating that once patients were able to access care and undergo surgery, surgical mortality was similar across groups.

Cardiac Reoperation or Transcatheter Mitral Valve Replacement for Patients With Failed Mitral Prostheses.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited regarding patient outcomes comparing redo surgical mitral valve replacement (redo SMVR) vs transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) for failed prostheses. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to compare the outcomes of redo SMVR vs TMVR in patients with failed prostheses, as well as evaluate the association between case volume and outcomes. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥65 years who underwent redo SMVR or TMVR for failed mitral prostheses between 2016 and 2020 were included. The primary endpoint was mid-term (up to 3 years) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause death, heart failure rehospitalization, stroke, or reintervention. Propensity score-matched analysis was used. RESULTS: A total of 4,293 patients were included (redo SMVR: 64%; TMVR: 36%). TMVR recipients were older, with a higher comorbidity burden. In matched cohort (n = 1,317 in each group), mid-term risk of MACE was similar (adjusted HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.80-1.04; P = 0.2). However, landmark analysis revealed a lower risk of MACE with TMVR in the first 6 months (adjusted HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.63-0.88; P < 0.001) albeit with a higher risk beyond 6 months (adjusted HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.04-1.58; P = 0.02). Increasing procedural volume was associated with decreased risk of mid-term MACE after redo SMVR (P = 0.001) but not after TMVR (P = 0.3). CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of Medicare beneficiaries with failed mitral prostheses, outcomes were similar between redo SMVR and TMVR at 3 years, with TMVR showing a lower initial risk but a higher risk of MACE after 6 months. These findings highlight the importance of striking a balance between surgical risk, anticipated longevity, and hospital expertise when selecting interventions.

Association between patient-surgeon gender concordance and mortality after surgery in the United States: retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patient-surgeon gender concordance is associated with mortality of patients after surgery in the United States. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Acute care hospitals in the US. PARTICIPANTS: 100% of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65-99 years who had one of 14 major elective or non-elective (emergent or urgent) surgeries in 2016-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality after surgery, defined as death within 30 days of the operation. Adjustments were made for patient and surgeon characteristics and hospital fixed effects (effectively comparing patients within the same hospital). RESULTS: Among 2 902 756 patients who had surgery, 1 287 845 (44.4%) had operations done by surgeons of the same gender (1 201 712 (41.4%) male patient and male surgeon, 86 133 (3.0%) female patient and female surgeon) and 1 614 911 (55.6%) were by surgeons of different gender (52 944 (1.8%) male patient and female surgeon, 1 561 967 (53.8%) female patient and male surgeon). Adjusted 30 day mortality after surgery was 2.0% for male patient-male surgeon dyads, 1.7% for male patient-female surgeon dyads, 1.5% for female patient-male surgeon dyads, and 1.3% for female patient-female surgeon dyads. Patient-surgeon gender concordance was associated with a slightly lower mortality for female patients (adjusted risk difference -0.2 percentage point (95% confidence interval -0.3 to -0.1); P<0.001), but a higher mortality for male patients (0.3 (0.2 to 0.5); P<0.001) for elective procedures, although the difference was small and not clinically meaningful. No evidence suggests that operative mortality differed by patient-surgeon gender concordance for non-elective procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Post-operative mortality rates were similar (ie, the difference was small and not clinically meaningful) among the four types of patient-surgeon gender dyads.

Inequities in surgical outcomes by race and sex in the United States: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess inequities in mortality by race and sex for eight common surgical procedures (elective and non-elective) across specialties in the United States. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: US, 2016-18. PARTICIPANTS: 1 868 036 Black and White Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-99 years undergoing one of eight common surgeries: repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm, appendectomy, cholecystectomy, colectomy, coronary artery bypass surgery, hip replacement, knee replacement, and lung resection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was 30 day mortality, defined as death during hospital admission or within 30 days of the surgical procedure. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality overall was higher in Black men (1698 deaths, adjusted mortality rate 3.05%, 95% confidence interval 2.85% to 3.24%) compared with White men (21 833 deaths, 2.69%, 2.65% to 2.73%), White women (21 847 deaths, 2.38%, 2.35% to 2.41%), and Black women (1631 deaths, 2.18%, 2.04% to 2.31%), after adjusting for potential confounders. A similar pattern was found for elective surgeries, with Black men showing a higher adjusted mortality (393 deaths, 1.30%, 1.14% to 1.46%) compared with White men (5650 deaths, 0.85%, 0.83% to 0.88%), White women (4615 deaths, 0.82%, 0.80% to 0.84%), and Black women (359 deaths, 0.79%, 0.70% to 0.88%). This 0.45 percentage point difference implies that mortality after elective procedures was 50% higher in Black men compared with White men. For non-elective surgeries, however, mortality did not differ between Black men and White men (1305 deaths, 6.69%, 6.26% to 7.11%; and 16 183 deaths, 7.03%, 6.92% to 7.14%, respectively), although mortality was lower for White women and Black women (17 232 deaths, 6.12%, 6.02% to 6.21%; and 1272 deaths, 5.29%, 4.93% to 5.64%, respectively). These differences in mortality appeared within seven days after surgery and persisted for up to 60 days after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative mortality overall was higher among Black men compared with White men, White women, and Black women. These findings highlight the need to understand better the unique challenges Black men who require surgery face.

Association of Daily Step Patterns With Mortality in US Adults.

Importance: Previous studies have shown that individuals who regularly walk, particularly 8000 daily steps or more, experience lower mortality. However, little is known about the health benefits of walking intensively only a few days a week. Objective: To evaluate the dose-response association between the number of days an individual takes 8000 steps or more and mortality among US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study evaluated a representative sample of participants aged 20 years or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2005-2006 who wore an accelerometer for 1 week and their mortality data through December 31, 2019. Data were analyzed from April 1, 2022, to January 31, 2023. Exposures: Participants were grouped by the number of days per week they took 8000 steps or more (0 days, 1-2 days, and 3-7 days). Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable ordinary least squares regression models were used to estimate adjusted risk differences (aRDs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality during the 10-year follow-up, adjusting for potential confounders (eg, age, sex, race and ethnicity, insurance status, marital status, smoking, comorbidities, and average daily step counts). Results: Among 3101 participants (mean [SD] age, 50.5 [18.4] years; 1583 [51.0%] women and 1518 [49.0%] men; 666 [21.5%] Black, 734 [23.7%] Hispanic, 1579 [50.9%] White, and 122 [3.9%] other race and ethnicity), 632 (20.4%) did not take 8000 steps or more any day of the week, 532 (17.2%) took 8000 steps or more 1 to 2 days per week, and 1937 (62.5%) took 8000 steps or more 3 to 7 days per week. Over the 10-year follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular deaths occurred in 439 (14.2%) and 148 (5.3%) participants, respectively. Compared with participants who walked 8000 steps or more 0 days per week, all-cause mortality risk was lower among those who took 8000 steps or more 1 to 2 days per week (aRD, -14.9%; 95% CI -18.8% to -10.9%) and 3 to 7 days per week (aRD, -16.5%; 95% CI, -20.4% to -12.5%). The dose-response association for both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk was curvilinear; the protective association plateaued at 3 days per week. Different thresholds for the number of daily steps between 6000 and 10 000 yielded similar results. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of US adults, the number of days per week taking 8000 steps or more was associated with a lower risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a curvilinear fashion. These findings suggest that individuals may receive substantial health benefits by walking just a couple days a week.

Trends in advance care planning and end-of-life care among persons living with dementia requiring surrogate decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have demonstrated positive impacts of advance care planning (ACP) on end-of-life (EOL) care. We sought to examine trends in ACP and EOL care intensity among persons living with dementia who required surrogate decision-making in their final days of life. METHODS: We analyzed the participants of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative longitudinal panel study of U.S. residents, with dementia 70 years and older who required surrogate decision-making in the final days of life and died between 2000 and 2014. Based on surrogate reports after the death of a participant, our study measured the completion of three specific types of patient-engaged ACP (written EOL care instructions, assignment of a durable power of attorney for healthcare, patient engagement in EOL care discussions) and four measures of EOL care in the final days of life (death in hospital, receipt of life-prolonging treatments, limiting or withholding certain treatments, and receipt of comfort-oriented care). All analyses accounted for the complex survey design of HRS. RESULTS: Among 870 adults (weighted N = 2,812,380) with dementia who died in 2000-2014 and required surrogate decision-making at EOL, only 34.8% of patients participated in all three aspects of ACP, and there was not a significant increase in ACP completion between 2000 and 2014. The receipt of life-prolonging treatments in the final days of life has increased over time (adjusted change per year, 1.4 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, 0.5 to 2.2 pp; P-for-trend = 0.002), while the percentage of death in hospital, limiting or withholding certain treatments, or comfort-oriented care did not change. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the rates of ACP completion have not increased over time despite its potential benefits and life-prolonging treatments are still common among PLWD who require surrogate decision-making, a population who might benefit greatly from early ACP.

Comparison of Advance Care Planning and End-of-Life Care Intensity Between Dementia Versus Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: While advanced care planning (ACP) is recommended in dementia and cancer care, there are unique challenges in ACP for individuals with dementia, such as the insidious onset and progression of cognitive impairment, potentially leading to high-intensity care at the end of life (EOL) for this population. OBJECTIVE: To compare ACP completion and receipt of high-intensity care at the EOL between decedents with dementia versus cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Participants of the U.S. Health and Retirement Study who died between 2000 and 2014 with dementia (n = 2099) and cancer (n = 1137). MAIN MEASURES: Completion of three types of ACP (living will, durable power of attorney for healthcare [DPOAH], discussions of preferences for EOL care) and three measures of EOL care intensity (in-hospital death, intensive care unit [ICU] care in the last 2 years of life, life support use in the last 2 years of life). KEY RESULTS: Use of living will was lower in dementia than in cancer (adjusted proportion, 49.9% vs. 56.9%; difference, - 7.0 percentage points [pp, 95% CI, - 13.3 to - 0.7]; p = 0.03). Use of DPOAH was similar between the two groups, but a lower proportion of decedents with dementia had discussed preferences compared to decedents with cancer (53.0% vs. 68.1%; - 15.1 pp [95% CI, - 19.3 to - 10.9]; p < 0.001). In-hospital death was higher in dementia than in cancer (29.5% vs. 19.8%; + 9.7 pp [95% CI, + 5.9 to + 13.5]; p < 0.001), although use of ICU care was lower (20.9% vs. 26.1%; - 5.2 pp [95% CI, - 9.8 to - 0.7]; p = 0.03). Use of life support was similar between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with dementia complete ACP less frequently and might be receiving higher-intensity EOL care than those with cancer. Interventions targeting individuals with dementia may be necessary to further improve EOL care for this population.

The Association Between Risk Aversion of Surgeons and Their Clinical Decision-Making.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which a surgeon's risk aversion influences their clinical decisions remains unknown. We assessed whether a surgeon's attitude toward risk ("risk aversion") influences their surgical decisions and whether the relationship can be explained by differences in surgeons' perception of treatment risks and benefits. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We presented a series of detailed clinical vignettes to a national sample of surgeons (n = 1,769; 13.4% adjusted response rate) and asked them to complete an instrument that measured how risk averse they are within their clinical practice (scale 6-36; higher number indicates greater risk aversion). For each vignette, participants rated their likelihood of recommending an operation and judged the likelihood of complications or full recovery. We examined whether differences in perceived likelihood of complications versus recovery could explain why risk-averse surgeons may be less likely to recommend an operation. RESULTS: Surgeons varied in their self-reported risk aversion score (median = 25, interquartile range[22,28]). Scores did not differ by level of surgeon experience or gender. Risk-averse surgeons were significantly less likely to recommend an operation for patients with exactly the same condition (65.5% for surgeons in highest quartile of risk aversion versus 62.3% for lowest quartile; P = 0.02). However, after controlling for surgeons' perception of the likelihood of complications versus recovery, there was no longer a significant association between surgeons' risk aversion and the decision to recommend an operation (64.7% versus 64.8%; P = 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons vary widely in their self-reported risk aversion. Risk-averse surgeons were significantly less likely to recommend an operation, a finding that was explained by a higher perceived probability of post-operative complications than their colleagues.

Comparison of Patient Outcomes of Surgeons Who Are US Versus International Medical Graduates.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare patient outcomes between International Medical Graduate (IMG) versus US medical graduate (USMG) surgeons. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: One in 7 surgeons practicing in the US graduated from a foreign medical school. However, it remains unknown whether patient outcomes differ between IMG versus USMG surgeons. METHODS: Using 20% random sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 to 99 years who underwent 1 of 13 common nonelective surgical procedures (as a "natural experiment" as surgeons are less likely to select patients in this context) in 2011 to 2014 (638,973 patients treated by 37,221 surgeons for the mortality analysis), we compared operative mortality, complications, and length of stay (LOS) between IMG and USMG surgeons, adjusting for patient and surgeon characteristics and hospital-specific fixed effects (effectively comparing IMG and USMG surgeons within the same hospital). We also conducted stratified analyses by patients' severity of illness and procedure type. RESULTS: We found no evidence that patient outcomes differ between IMG and USMG surgeons for operative mortality [adjusted mortality, 7.3% for IMGs vs 7.3% for USMGs; adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.96-1.05; P = 0.79], complication rate (adjusted complication rate, 0.6% vs 0.6%; aOR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.85-1.06; P = 0.43), and LOS (adjusted LOS, 6.6 days vs 6.6 days; adjusted difference, +0.02 days; 95% CI, -0.05 to +0.08; P = 0.54). We also found no difference when we stratified by severity of illness and procedures. CONCLUSION: Using national data of Medicare beneficiaries who underwent common surgical procedures, we found no evidence that outcomes differ between IMG and USMG surgeons.

Impact of the Affordable Care Act Insurance Marketplaces on Out-of-Pocket Spending Among Surgical Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between the introduction of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Health Insurance Marketplaces ("Marketplaces") and financial protection for patients undergoing surgery. BACKGROUND: The ACA established Marketplaces through which individuals could purchase subsidized insurance coverage. However, the effect of these Marketplaces on surgical patients' healthcare spending remains largely unknown. METHODS: We analyzed a nationally representative sample of adults aged 19-64 who underwent surgery in 2010-2017, using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. Low-income patients eligible for cost-sharing and premium subsidies in the Marketplaces [income 139%-250% federal poverty level (FPL)] and middle-income patients eligible only for premium subsidies (251%-400% FPL) were compared to high-income controls ineligible for subsidies (>400% FPL) using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach. We evaluated 3 main outcomes: (1) out-of-pocket spending, (2) premium contributions, and (3) likelihood of experiencing catastrophic expenditures, defined as out-of-pocket plus premium spending exceeding 19.5% of family income. RESULTS: Our sample included 5450 patients undergoing surgery, representing approximately 69 million US adults. Among low-income patients, Marketplace implementation was associated with $601 lower [95% confidence interval (CI): -$1169 to -$33; P = 0.04) out-of-pocket spending; $968 lower (95% CI: -$1652 to -$285; P = 0.006) premium spending; and 34.6% lower probability (absolute change: -8.3 percentage points; 95% CI: -14.9 to -1.7; P = 0.01) of catastrophic expenditures. We found no evidence that health expenditures changed for middle-income surgical patients. CONCLUSIONS: The ACA's insurance Marketplaces were associated with improved financial protection among low-income surgical patients eligible for both cost-sharing and premium subsidies, but not in middle-income patients eligible for only premium subsidies.

Machine-learning-based prediction models for high-need high-cost patients using nationwide clinical and claims data.

High-need, high-cost (HNHC) patients-usually defined as those who account for the top 5% of annual healthcare costs-use as much as half of the total healthcare costs. Accurately predicting future HNHC patients and designing targeted interventions for them has the potential to effectively control rapidly growing healthcare expenditures. To achieve this goal, we used a nationally representative random sample of the working-age population who underwent a screening program in Japan in 2013-2016, and developed five machine-learning-based prediction models for HNHC patients in the subsequent year. Predictors include demographics, blood pressure, laboratory tests (e.g., HbA1c, LDL-C, and AST), survey responses (e.g., smoking status, medications, and past medical history), and annual healthcare cost in the prior year. Our prediction models for HNHC patients combining clinical data from the national screening program with claims data showed a c-statistics of 0.84 (95%CI, 0.83-0.86), and overperformed traditional prediction models relying only on claims data.

Patient mortality after surgery on the surgeon's birthday: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether patient mortality after surgery differs between surgeries performed on surgeons' birthdays compared with other days of the year. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: US acute care and critical access hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 100% fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 to 99 years who underwent one of 17 common emergency surgical procedures in 2011-14. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patient postoperative 30 day mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery, with adjustment for patient characteristics and surgeon fixed effects. RESULTS: 980 876 procedures performed by 47 489 surgeons were analyzed. 2064 (0.2%) of the procedures were performed on surgeons' birthdays. Patient characteristics, including severity of illness, were similar between patients who underwent surgery on a surgeon's birthday and those who underwent surgery on other days. The overall unadjusted 30 day mortality on the operating surgeon's birthday was 7.0% (145/2064) and that on other days was 5.6% (54 824/978 812). After adjusting for patient characteristics and surgeon fixed effects (effectively comparing outcomes of patients treated by the same surgeon on different days), patients who underwent surgery on a surgeon's birthday exhibited higher mortality compared with patients who underwent surgery on other days (adjusted mortality rate, 6.9% v 5.6%; adjusted difference 1.3%, 95% confidence interval 0.1% to 2.5%; P=0.03). Event study analysis of patient mortality by day of surgery relative to a surgeon's birthday found similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent common emergency surgeries, those who received surgery on the surgeon's birthday experienced higher mortality compared with patients who underwent surgery on other days. These findings suggest that surgeons might be distracted by life events that are not directly related to work.

Association between physician characteristics and payments from industry in 2015-2017: observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between physician characteristics and the value of industry payments. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Using the 2015-2017 Open Payments reports of industry payments linked to the Physician Compare database, we examined the association between physician characteristics (physician sex, years in practice, medical school attended and specialty) and the industry payment value, adjusting for other physician characteristic and institution fixed effects (effectively comparing physicians practicing at the same institution). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Our primary outcome was the value of total industry payments to physicians including (1) general payments (all forms of payments other than those classified for research purpose, eg, consulting fees, food, beverage), (2) research payments (payments for research endeavours under a written contract or protocol) and (3) ownership interests (eg, stock or stock options, bonds). We also investigated each category of payment separately. RESULTS: Of 544 264 physicians treating Medicare beneficiaries, a total of $5.8 billion in industry payments were made to 365 801 physicians during 2015-2017. The top 5% of physicians, by cumulative payments, accounted for 91% of industry payments. Within the same institution, male physicians, physicians with 21-30 years in practice and physicians who attended top 50 US medical schools (based on the research ranking) received higher industry payments. Across specialties, orthopaedic surgeons, neurosurgeons and endocrinologists received the highest payments. When we investigated individual types of payment, we found that orthopaedic surgeons received the highest general payments; haematologists/oncologists were the most likely to receive research payments and surgeons were the most likely to receive ownership interests compared with other types of physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Industry payments to physicians were highly concentrated among a small number of physicians. Male sex, longer length of time in clinical practice, graduated from a top-ranked US medical school and practicing certain specialties, were independently associated with higher industry payments.

Bariatric surgery is associated with lower risk of acute care use for cardiovascular disease in obese adults.

AIMS: Studies have suggested relationships between obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity. However, little is known about whether substantial weight reduction affects the risk of CVD-related acute care use in obese patients with CVD. The objective of this study was to determine whether bariatric surgery is associated with decreased risk of CVD-related acute care use. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a self-controlled case series study of obese adults with CVD who underwent bariatric surgery, using population-based emergency department (ED), and inpatient samples in California, Florida, and Nebraska from 2005 to 2011. The primary outcome was ED visit or unplanned hospitalization for CVD. We used conditional logistic regression to compare the risk during sequential 12-month periods, using pre-surgery months 13-24 as the reference period. We identified 11 106 obese adults with CVD who underwent bariatric surgery. During the reference period, 20.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 19.8-21.3%] of patients had an ED visit or unplanned hospitalization for CVD. The risk did not significantly change in the subsequent 12-month pre-surgery period [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.98; 95% CI, 0.93-1.04; P = 0.42]. By contrast, in the first 12-month period after bariatric surgery, the risk significantly decreased (aOR 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86-0.96; P = 0.002). The risk remained reduced in the subsequent 13-24 months post-bariatric surgery (aOR 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < 0.001). There was no reduction in the risk in separate obese populations that underwent non-bariatric surgery (i.e. cholecystectomy, hysterectomy). By CVD category, the risk of acute care use for coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), and hypertension decreased after bariatric surgery, whereas that of dysrhythmia and venous thromboembolism transiently increased (Bonferroni corrected P < 0.05 for all comparisons). CONCLUSION: Bariatric surgery is associated with a lower risk of overall CVD-related ED visit or unplanned hospitalization. The decline was mainly driven by reduced risk of acute care use for CAD, HF, and hypertension after bariatric surgery.