RESUMO
Background: Intermediate clinical endpoints (ICEs) are frequently used as primary endpoint in randomised trials (RCTs). We aim to assess whether changes in different ICEs can be used to predict changes in overall survival (OS) in adjuvant breast cancer trials. Methods: Individual patient level data from adjuvant phase III RCTs conducted by the Gruppo Italiano Mammella (GIM) and Mammella Intergruppo (MIG) study groups were used. ICEs were computed according to STEEP criteria. Using a two-stage meta-analytic model, we assessed the surrogacy of each ICE at both the outcome (i.e., OS and ICE are correlated irrespective of treatment) and trial (i.e., treatment effects on ICE and treatment effect on OS are correlated) levels. The following ICEs were considered as potential surrogate endpoints of OS: disease-free survival (DFS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), distant relapse-free survival (DRFS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), recurrence-free interval (RFI), distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), breast cancer-free interval (BCFI), and invasive breast cancer-free survival (IBCFS). The estimates of the degree of correlation were obtained by copula models and weighted linear regression. Kendall's τ and R2 ≥ 0.70 were considered as indicators of a clinically relevant surrogacy. Findings: Among the 12,397 patients enrolled from November 1992 to July 2012 in six RCTs, median age at enrolment was 57 years (interquartile range (IQR) 49-65). After a median follow-up of 10.3 years (IQR 6.4-14.5), 2131 (17.2%) OS events were observed, with 1390 (65.2%) attributed to breast cancer. At the outcome-level, Kendall's τ ranged from 0.69 for BCFI to 0.84 for DRFS. For DFS, DDFS, DRFS, RFS, RFI, DRFI, BCFI, and IBCFS endpoints, over 95% of the 8-year OS variability was attributable to the variation of the 5-year ICE. At the trial-level, treatment effects for the different ICEs and OS were strongly correlated, with the highest correlation for RFS and DRFS and the lowest for BCFI. Interpretation: Our results provide evidence supporting the use of DFS, DDFS, DRFS, RFS, RFI, DRFI, and IBCFS as primary endpoint in breast cancer adjuvant trials. Funding: This analysis was supported by the Italian Association for Cancer Research ("Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro", AIRC; IG 2017/20760) and by Italian Ministry of Health-5 × 1000 funds (years 2021-2022).
RESUMO
GIM 13-AMBRA is a longitudinal cohort study aimed at describing therapeutic strategies and the relative outcome parameters in 939 HER2-ve MBC patients. Taxanes-based regimens, or taxanes + targeted agents, mainly Bevacizumab, were the preferred first choice in both Luminal (30.2%) and TNBC (33.3%) patients. The median PFS1 was 12.5 months (95% CI 16.79-19.64), without any significant difference according to subtypes, while the median Time to first Treatment Change (TTC1) was significantly lower in TNBC patients (7.7 months-95% CI 5.7-9.2) in comparison to Luminal A (13.2 months, 95% CI 11.7-15.1) and Luminal B patients (11.8 months, 95% CI 10.3-12.8). PFS2 was significantly shorter in TNBC patients (5.5 months, 95% CI 4.3-6.5 vs. Luminal A-9.4, 95% CI 8.1-10.7, and Luminal B-7.7 95% CI 6.8-8.2, F-Ratio 4.30, p = 0.014). TTC2 was significantly lower in patients with TNBC than in those with the other two subtypes. The median OS1 was 35.2 months (95% CI 30.8-37.4) for Luminal A patients, which was significantly higher than that for both Luminal B (28.9 months, 95% CI 26.2-31.2) and TNBC (18.5 months, 95% CI 16-20.1, F-ratio 7.44, p = 0.0006). The GIM 13-AMBRA study is one of the largest collections ever published in Italy and provides useful results in terms of time outcomes for first, second, and further lines of treatment in HER2- MBC patients.