Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence in Patients With Transient New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Detected During Hospitalization for Noncardiac Surgery or Medical Illness : A Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often detected for the first time in patients who are hospitalized for another reason. Long-term risks for AF recurrence in these patients are unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate risk for AF recurrence in patients with new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness compared with a matched population without AF. DESIGN: Matched cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03221777). SETTING: Three academic hospitals in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: The study enrolled patients hospitalized for noncardiac surgery or medical illness who had transient new-onset AF. For each participant, an age- and sex-matched control participant with no history of AF from the same hospital ward was recruited. All participants left the hospital in sinus rhythm. MEASUREMENTS: 14-day electrocardiographic (ECG) monitor at 1 and 6 months and telephone assessment at 1, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was AF lasting at least 30 seconds on the monitor or captured by ECG 12-lead during routine care at 12 months. RESULTS: Among 139 participants with transient new-onset AF (70 patients with medical illness and 69 surgical patients) and 139 matched control participants, the mean age was 71 years (SD, 10), the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (SD, 1.5), and 59% were male. The median duration of AF during the index hospitalization was 15.8 hours (IQR, 6.4 to 49.6 hours). After 1 year, recurrent AF was detected in 33.1% (95% CI, 25.3% to 40.9%) of participants in the transient new-onset AF group and 5.0% (CI, 1.4% to 8.7%) of matched control participants; after adjustment for the number of ECG monitors worn and for baseline clinical differences, the adjusted relative risk was 6.6 (CI, 3.2 to 13.7). After exclusion of participants who had electrical or pharmacologic cardioversion during the index hospitalization (n = 40) and their matched control participants and limiting to AF events detected by the patch ECG monitor, recurrent AF was detected in 32.3% (CI, 23.1% to 41.5%) of participants with transient new-onset AF and 3.0% (CI, 0% to 6.4%) of matched control participants. LIMITATIONS: Generalizability is limited, and the study was underpowered to evaluate subgroups and clinical predictors. CONCLUSION: Among patients who have transient new-onset AF during a hospitalization for noncardiac surgery or medical illness, approximately 1 in 3 will have recurrent AF within 1 year. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Peer-reviewed grants.

Association Between Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation and Long-term Risks of Stroke and Death in Noncardiac Surgery: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is frequently reported as a complication of noncardiac surgery. It is unknown whether new-onset perioperative AF is associated with an increased risk of stroke and death beyond the perioperative period. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the long-term risks of stroke and mortality associated with new-onset perioperative AF after noncardiac surgery. METHODS: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from inception to March 2020 for studies reporting on the association between perioperative AF and the risk of stroke and death occurring beyond 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Reference screening, study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed in duplicate. Data were pooled using inverse variance-weighted random-effects models and presented as risk ratios (RRs). RESULTS: From 7344 citations, we included 31 studies (3,529,493 patients). The weighted mean incidence of perioperative AF was 0.7%. During a mean follow-up of 28.1 ± 9.4 months, perioperative AF was associated with an increased risk of stroke (1.5 vs 0.9 strokes per 100 patient-years; RR: 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-3.9, I2 = 78%). Perioperative AF was also associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (21.0 vs 7.6 deaths per 100 patient-years; RR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.5-2.2, I2 = 94%). The pooled adjusted hazard ratios for stroke and all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI: 1.6-2.2, I2 = 31%) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.7, I2 = 20%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who had perioperative AF after noncardiac surgery had a higher long-term risk of stroke and mortality compared with patients who did not. Whether this risk is modifiable with oral anticoagulation therapy should be investigated.

CONTEXTE: La fibrillation atriale (FA) est une arythmie fréquemment attribuée à une complication d'une chirurgie non cardiaque. On ne sait toutefois pas si l'apparition d'une FA périopératoire est associée à un risque accru d'accident vasculaire cérébral et de décès au-delà de la période périopératoire. Nous avons donc procédé à un examen et à une méta-analyse systématiques dans le but d'évaluer les risques à long terme d'accident vasculaire cérébral et de décès associés à l'apparition d'une FA périopératoire à la suite d'une chirurgie non cardiaque. MÉTHODOLOGIE: Des recherches ont été effectuées dans MEDLINE et EMBASE depuis leur création jusqu'à mars 2020 pour y relever les études signalant l'association entre la FA périopératoire et le risque d'accident vasculaire cérébral et de décès survenant au-delà de 30 jours à la suite d'une chirurgie non cardiaque. Le tri des références, la sélection des études, l'extraction des données et l'évaluation de la qualité ont été effectués en double. Les données ont été regroupées à l'aide de modèles à effets aléatoires pondérés par l'inverse de la variance et présentées sous forme de rapports de risques relatifs (RR). RÉSULTATS: Parmi 7 344 références, nous avons inclus 31 études (3 529 493 patients). L'incidence moyenne pondérée de FA périopératoire était de 0,7 %. Dans le cadre d'un suivi moyen de 28,1 ± 9,4 mois, la FA périopératoire était associée à un risque accru d'accident vasculaire cérébral (1,5 vs 0,9 accident vasculaire cérébral par 100 années-patients; RR de 2,9; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 %; de 2,1 à 3,9; I2 = 78 %). La FA périopératoire était également associée à un risque considérablement plus élevé de décès toutes causes confondues (21,0 vs 7,6 décès par 100 années-patients; RR de 1,8; IC à 95 %; de 1,5 à 2,2; I2 = 94 %). Les rapports de risques instantanés ajustés regroupés d'accident vasculaire cérébral et de décès toutes causes confondues étaient de 1,9 (IC à 95 %; de 1,6 à 2,2; I2 = 31 %) et de 1,5 (IC à 95 %; de 1,3 à 1,7; I2 = 20 %), respectivement. CONCLUSIONS: Les patients qui souffraient de FA périopératoire à la suite d'une chirurgie non cardiaque présentaient un risque accru à long terme d'accident vasculaire cérébral et de décès par rapport aux patients qui n'en souffraient pas. Il serait approprié d'examiner la possibilité de modifier ce risque par une anticoagulothérapie orale.

Incidence and recurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation detected during hospitalization for non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: This systematic review aimed to summarize reports of the incidence and long-term recurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with non-cardiac surgery. SOURCES: We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2019. We included studies that reported on the incidence of new-onset perioperative AF during hospitalization for non-cardiac surgery and/or AF recurrence in such patients following discharge. Reviewers screened articles and abstracted data independently and in duplicate. We assessed study quality by appraising methodology for collecting AF history, incident AF during hospitalization, and AF recurrence after discharge. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From 39,233 citations screened, 346 studies that enrolled a total of 5,829,758 patients met eligibility criteria. Only 27 studies used prospective, continuous inpatient electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring to detect incident AF. Overall, the incidence of postoperative AF during hospitalization ranged from 0.004 to 50.3%, with a median [interquartile range] of 8.7 [3.8-15.0]%. Atrial fibrillation incidence varied with type of surgery. Prospective studies using continuous ECG monitoring reported significantly higher incidences of AF than those that did not (13.9% vs 1.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). A total of 13 studies (25,726 patients) with follow-up up to 5.4 years reported on AF recurrence following hospital discharge; only one study used a prospective systematic monitoring protocol. Recurrence rates ranged from 0 to 37.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of AF incidence first detected following non-cardiac surgery and long-term AF recurrence vary markedly. Differences in the intensity of ECG monitoring and type of surgery may account for this variation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO (CRD42017068055); registered 1 September 2017.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Cette revue systématique visait à résumer les comptes rendus sur l'incidence et la récurrence à long terme de la fibrillation auriculaire (FA) de novo associée à une chirurgie non cardiaque. SOURCES: Nous avons effectué des recherches dans les bases de données CENTRAL, MEDLINE et EMBASE de leur création à novembre 2019. Nous avons inclus les études ayant examiné l'incidence de nouvelle FA périopératoire pendant l'hospitalisation pour une chirurgie non cardiaque et/ou la récurrence de la FA chez de tels patients après leur congé. Les chercheurs ont passé en revue les articles et les données extraites de manière indépendante et en double. Nous avons estimé la qualité des études en évaluant la méthodologie de collecte des antécédents de FA, de l'incident de FA pendant l'hospitalisation et de la récurrence de FA après le congé. CONSTATATIONS PRINCIPALES: Sur les 39 233 citations examinées, 346 études portant sur un total de 5 829 758 patients ont répondu à nos critères d'admissibilité. Seulement 27 études ont utilisé un monitorage électrocardiographique (ECG) continu prospectif et des patients hospitalisés pour détecter les incidents de FA. Dans l'ensemble, l'incidence de FA postopératoire pendant l'hospitalisation allait de 0,004 à 50,3 %, avec une médiane [écart interquartile] de 8,7 [3,8-15,0] %. L'incidence de fibrillation auriculaire variait en fonction du type de chirurgie. Des études prospectives utilisant un monitorage continu par ECG ont fait état d'incidences significativement plus élevées de FA que celles sans monitorage continu (13,9 % vs 1,9 %, respectivement; P < 0,001). Au total, 13 études (25 726 patients) avec un suivi allant jusqu'à 5,4 ans ont rapporté leurs données sur la récurrence de FA après le congé de l'hôpital; seule une étude a utilisé un protocole de monitorage prospectif systématique. Les taux de récurrence allaient de 0 à 37,3 %. CONCLUSION: Les taux d'incidence de nouvelle FA détectés après une chirurgie non cardiaque et la récurrence à long terme de FA varient considérablement. Les différences du degré de monitorage par ECG et le type de chirurgie pourraient expliquer cette variation. ENREGISTREMENT DE L'éTUDE: PROSPERO (CRD42017068055); enregistrée le 1er septembre 2017.

High-Sensitivity Estimate of the Incidence of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Patients.

To estimate the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING: Medical-surgical ICU. SUBJECTS: Consecutive patients without a history of atrial fibrillation but with atrial fibrillation risk factors. INTERVENTIONS: Electrocardiogram patch monitor until discharge from hospital or up to 14 days. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 249 participants (median age of 71 yr [interquartile range] 64-78 yr; 35% female) completed the study protocol of which 158 (64%) were admitted to ICU for medical illness, 78 (31%) following noncardiac surgery, and 13 (5%) with trauma. Median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 16 (interquartile range, 12-22). Median duration of patch electrocardiogram monitoring, ICU, and hospital lengths of stay were 6 (interquartile range, 3-12), 4 (interquartile range, 2-8), and 11 days (interquartile range, 5-23 d), respectively.Atrial fibrillation ≥ 30 seconds was detected by the patch in 44 participants (17.7%), and three participants (1.2%) had atrial fibrillation detected clinically after patch removal, resulting in an overall atrial fibrillation incidence of 18.9% (95% CI, 14.2-24.3%).Total duration of atrial fibrillation ranged from 53 seconds to the entire monitoring time. The proportion of participants with ≥1 episode(s) of ≥6 minute, ≥1 hour, ≥12 hour and ≥24 hour duration was 14.8%, 13.2%, 7.0%, and 5.3%, respectively. The clinical team recognized only 70% of atrial fibrillation cases that were detected by the electrocardiogram patch. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients admitted to an ICU, the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation is approximately one in five, although approximately one-third of cases are not recognized by the clinical team.

Outcomes after Ross procedure in adult patients: A meta-analysis and microsimulation.

OBJECTIVE: We conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the risk of adverse events, life expectancy, and event-free life expectancy after the Ross procedure in adults. METHODS: We searched databases for reports evaluating the Ross procedure in patients aged more than or equal to 16 years of age. A microsimulation model was used to evaluate age- and gender-specific life expectancy for patients undergoing the Ross procedure. RESULTS: Data were pooled from 63 articles totaling 19 155 patients from 20 countries. Perioperative mortality was 2.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-3.1; N = 9978). We found a mortality risk of 5.9% (95% CI: 4.8-7.2) at a mean follow-up of 7.2 years (N = 7573). The rate of perioperative clinically significant bleeding was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.1-3.0); re-exploration for bleeding 4.6% (95% CI: 3.1-6.3); postoperative clinically significant bleeding from 30 days until a mean of 7.1 years was 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2-1.0). At a mean of 6.9 years of follow-up, reintervention rate of any operated valve was 7.9% (95% CI: 5.7-10.3). The risk of valve thrombosis was 0.3% (95% CI: 0.2-0.5) at 7.6 years; peripheral embolism 0.3% (95% CI: 0.2-0.4) at 6.4 years; stroke 0.9% (95% CI: 0.7-1.2) at 6.5 years; and endocarditis 2.1% (95% CI: 1.6-2.6) at 8.0 years. Microsimulation reported a 40-year-old undergoing the Ross procedure to have a life expectancy of 35.4 years and event-free life expectancy of 26.6 years. CONCLUSIONS: Ross procedure in nonelderly adults is associated with low mortality and low risk of adverse events both at short- and long-term follow-up. The surgical community must prioritize a large, expertize-based randomized controlled trial to definitively address the risks and benefits of the Ross procedure compared to conventional aortic valve replacement.

Atrial fibrillation detected initially during acute medical illness: A systematic review.

OBJECTIVE:: There is uncertainty about the incidence of and prognosis associated with atrial fibrillation that is documented for the first time in the setting of an acute stressor, such as surgery or medical illness. Our objective was to perform a systematic review of the incidence and long-term recurrence rates for atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress in the setting of acute medical illness. DATA SOURCES:: Medline, Embase and Cochrane Central to September 2017. STUDY SELECTION:: We included retrospective and prospective observational studies, and randomised controlled trials. The population of interest included patients hospitalised for medical (i.e. non-surgical) illness who developed newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. Studies were included if they included data on either the incidence of atrial fibrillation or the rate of atrial fibrillation recurrence in atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress patients following hospital discharge. DATA EXTRACTION:: Two reviewers collected data independently and in duplicate. We characterised each study's methodology for ascertainment of prior atrial fibrillation history, atrial fibrillation during hospitalisation and atrial fibrillation recurrence after hospital discharge. DATA SYNTHESIS:: Thirty-six studies reported the incidence of atrial fibrillation. Ten used a prospective design and included a period of continuous electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring. Atrial fibrillation incidence ranged from 1% to 44%, which was too heterogeneous to justify meta-analysis ( I2=99%). In post-hoc meta-regression models, the use of continuous ECG monitoring explained 13% of the variance in atrial fibrillation incidence, while care in an intensive care unit explained none. Two studies reported the long-term rate of atrial fibrillation recurrence following atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress. Neither of these studies used prospective, systematic monitoring. Recurrence rates at 5 years ranged from 42% to 68%. CONCLUSIONS:: The incidence of atrial fibrillation with medical illness may be as high as 44%, with higher estimates in reports using continuous ECG monitoring. Within 5 years following hospital discharge, atrial fibrillation recurrence is documented in approximately half of patients; however, the true rate may be higher. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016043240.

Design and rationale of the atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress (AFOTS) follow-up cohort study.

Atrial fibrillation occurring transiently with stress (AFOTS) describes the first detection of AF in a patient who is hospitalized for a non-cardiac medical illness or following non-cardiac surgery. Uncertainty exists whether episodes of AFOTS are due to reversible precipitants and will not recur after recovery, or if they are paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) that is detected during inpatient cardiac monitoring. Previous studies have used retrospective, non-systematic and ultimately low-sensitivity protocols to investigate the recurrence of AF in patients with AFOTS. The prospective, multi-center, investigator-initiated AFOTS Follow-Up Cohort Study will enroll 138 case patients with AFOTS in the setting of non-cardiac surgery or medical illness, matched 1:1 with control patients for age, sex, stressor, and hospital unit. Participants will wear a 14-day ECG heart monitor at 1 and 6 months after hospital discharge. Over 12 months of follow-up, we will collect data regarding participant's medications, and clinical events. The primary endpoint is detection of 30 or more seconds of AF after hospital discharge. To date, 50% of the target sample has been enrolled. The study is expected to complete enrolment in mid-2019 and conclude 1 year later. The AFOTS follow-up study will employ a systematic protocol to detect AF and will provide a precise and valid estimate of AF recurrence following AFOTS. This study will establish whether patients with AFOTS have an increased propensity to AF after hospitalization as compared to matched controls and may inform the management of this population.

Hemodynamic outcomes of the Ross procedure versus other aortic valve replacement: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Life expectancy in young adults undergoing mechanical or bioprosthetic aortic valve replacement (AVR) may be reduced by up to 20 years compared to age matched controls. The Ross procedure is a durable, anticoagulation-sparing alternative. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the valve hemodynamics of the Ross procedure versus other AVR. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: We searched Cochrane CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to February 2017 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (n≥10 Ross). Independently and in duplicate, we performed title and abstract screening, full-text eligibility assessment, and data collection. We evaluated the risk of bias with the Cochrane and CLARITY tools, and the quality of evidence with the GRADE framework. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: We identified 2 RCTs and 13 observational studies that met eligibility criteria (N.=1412). In observational studies, the Ross procedure was associated with a lower mean aortic gradient at discharge (MD -9 mmHg, 95% CI: -13 to -5, P<0.0001, I2=97%) and latest follow-up (MD -5 mmHg, 95% CI: -7 to -3, P<0.0001, I2=92%). There was no significant difference in the incidence of severe aortic regurgitation at latest follow-up (RR 1.3, 95% CI: 0.3 to 5.8, P=0.70, I2=30%). In RCTs, the Ross procedure was associated with a lower mean gradient at latest follow-up (MD -15 mmHg, 95% CI: -32 to 2, P=0.08, I2=99%). The mean pulmonic gradient for the Ross procedure was 18.0 mmHg (95% CI: 16 to 20, P<0.0001) at latest follow-up. The evidence for all outcomes from observational studies was deemed to be of very low quality, while the evidence from RCTs was downgraded for imprecision and moderately serious risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to conventional AVR, the Ross procedure was associated with better aortic valve hemodynamics. Future studies should evaluate the impact of the Ross procedure on exercise capacity and quality of life.