Reducing non-communicable diseases among Palestinian populations in Gaza: A participatory comparative and cost-effectiveness modeling assessment.

We sought to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential new public health and healthcare NCD risk reduction efforts among Palestinians in Gaza. We created a microsimulation model using: (i) a cross-sectional household survey of NCD risk factors among 4,576 Palestinian adults aged ≥40 years old in Gaza; (ii) a modified Delphi process among local public health experts to identify potentially feasible new interventions; and (iii) reviews of intervention cost and effectiveness, modified to the Gazan and refugee contexts. The survey revealed 28.6% tobacco smoking, a 40.4% prevalence of hypertension diagnosis (with a 95.6% medication treatment rate), a 25.6% prevalence of diabetes diagnosis (with 95.3% on treatment), a 21.9% prevalence of dyslipidemia (with 79.6% on a statin), and a 9.8% prevalence of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (without known treatment). A calibrated model estimated a loss of 9,516 DALYs per 10,000 population over the 10-year policy horizon. The interventions having an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than three times the GDP per capita of Palestine per DALY averted (<$10,992 per DALY averted)(<$10,992 per DALY averted) included bans on tobacco smoking in indoor and public places [$34 per incremental DALY averted (95% CI: $17, $50)], treatment of asthma using low dose inhaled beclometasone and short-acting beta-agonists [$140 per DALY averted (95% CI: $77, $207)], treatment of breast cancer stages I and II [$730 per DALY averted (95% CI: $372, $1,100)], implementing a mass media campaign for healthier nutrition [$737 per DALY averted (95% CI: $403, $1,100)], treatment of colorectal cancer stages I and II [$7,657 per DALY averted (95% CI: $3,721, $11,639)], and (screening with mammography [$17,054 per DALY averted (95% CI: $8,693, $25,359)]). Despite high levels of NCD risk factors among Palestinians in Gaza, we estimated that several interventions would be expected to reduce the loss of DALYs within common cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Association of time spent on social media with youth cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use in the UK: a national longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Social media may influence children and young people's health behaviour, including cigarette and e-cigarette use. METHODS: We analysed data from participants aged 10-25 years in the UK Household Longitudinal Study 2015-2021. The amount of social media use reported on a normal weekday was related to current cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. Generalised estimating equation (GEE) logistic regression models investigated associations of social media use with cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. Models controlled for possible confounders including age, sex, country of UK, ethnicity, household income and use of cigarette/e-cigarettes by others within the home. RESULTS: Among 10 808 participants with 27 962 observations, current cigarette smoking was reported by 8.6% of participants for at least one time point, and current e-cigarette use by 2.5% of participants. In adjusted GEE models, more frequent use of social media was associated with greater odds of current cigarette smoking. This was particularly apparent at higher levels of use (eg, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.60, 95% CI 2.61 to 4.96 for ≥7 hours/day vs none). Associations were similar for e-cigarettes (AOR 2.73, 95% CI 1.40 to 5.29 for ≥7 hours/day social media use vs none). There was evidence of dose-response in associations between time spent on social media and both cigarette and e-cigarette use (both p<0.001). Analyses stratified by sex and household income found similar associations for cigarettes; however, for e-cigarettes associations were concentrated among males and those from higher household income groups. CONCLUSIONS: Social media use is associated with increased risk of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. There is a need for greater research on this issue as well as potential policy responses.

Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London. METHODS: The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes. CONCLUSION: Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

Characterizing restrictions on commercial advertising and sponsorship of harmful commodities in local government policies: a nationwide study in England.

BACKGROUND: Commercial advertising and sponsorship drive the consumption of harmful commodities. Local authorities (LAs) have considerable powers to reduce such exposures. This study aimed to characterize local commercial policies across all English LAs. METHODS: We conducted a census of all English LAs (n = 333) to identify local commercial policies concerning advertising and sponsorship of tobacco, alcohol, less healthy foods and gambling, through online searches and Freedom of Information requests. We explored policy presence, commodity frequency and type, and associations with LA characteristics (region, urban/rural and deprivation). RESULTS: Only a third (106) of LAs in England had a relevant policy (32%). These included restrictions on tobacco (91%), gambling (79%), alcohol (74%) and/or less healthy foods (24%). Policy prevalence was lowest in the East of England (22%), North East (25%) and North West (27%), higher in urban areas (36%) than rural areas (28%) and lower in the least (27%) compared with the most (38%) deprived areas. Definitions in policies varied, particularly for alcohol and less healthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: English LAs currently underutilize their levers to reduce the negative impacts of harmful commodity industry marketing, particularly concerning less healthy foods. Standardized guidance, including clarity on definitions and application, could inform local policy development.

Ultra-processed food consumption, cancer risk and cancer mortality: a large-scale prospective analysis within the UK Biobank.

Background: Global dietary patterns are increasingly dominated by relatively cheap, highly palatable, and ready-to-eat ultra-processed foods (UPFs). However, prospective evidence is limited on cancer development and mortality in relation to UPF consumption. This study examines associations between UPF consumption and risk of cancer and associated mortality for 34 site-specific cancers in a large cohort of British adults. Methods: This study included a prospective cohort of UK Biobank participants (aged 40-69 years) who completed 24-h dietary recalls between 2009 and 2012 (N = 197426, 54.6% women) and were followed up until Jan 31, 2021. Food items consumed were categorised according to their degree of food processing using the NOVA food classification system. Individuals' UPF consumption was expressed as a percentage of total food intake (g/day). Prospective associations were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline socio-demographic characteristics, smoking status, physical activity, body mass index, alcohol and total energy intake. Findings: The mean UPF consumption was 22.9% (SD 13.3%) in the total diet. During a median follow-up time of 9.8 years, 15,921 individuals developed cancer and 4009 cancer-related deaths occurred. Every 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption was associated with an increased incidence of overall (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04) and specifically ovarian (1.19; 1.08-1.30) cancer. Furthermore, every 10 percentage points increment in UPF consumption was associated with an increased risk of overall (1.06; 1.03-1.09), ovarian (1.30; 1.13-1.50), and breast (1.16; 1.02-1.32) cancer-related mortality. Interpretation: Our UK-based cohort study suggests that higher UPF consumption may be linked to an increased burden and mortality for overall and certain site-specific cancers especially ovarian cancer in women. Funding: The Cancer Research UK and World Cancer Research Fund.

Food processing and cancer risk in Europe: results from the prospective EPIC cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Food processing has been hypothesised to play a role in cancer development; however, data from large-scale epidemiological studies are scarce. This study investigated the association between dietary intake according to amount of food processing and risk of cancer at 25 anatomical sites using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. METHODS: This study used data from the prospective EPIC cohort study, which recruited participants between March 18, 1991, and July 2, 2001, from 23 centres in ten European countries. Participant eligibility within each cohort was based on geographical or administrative boundaries. Participants were excluded if they had a cancer diagnosis before recruitment, had missing information for the NOVA food processing classification, or were within the top and bottom 1% for ratio of energy intake to energy requirement. Validated dietary questionnaires were used to obtain information on food and drink consumption. Participants with cancer were identified using cancer registries or during follow-up from a combination of sources, including cancer and pathology centres, health insurance records, and active follow-up of participants. We performed a substitution analysis to assess the effect of replacing 10% of processed foods and ultra-processed foods with 10% of minimally processed foods on cancer risk at 25 anatomical sites using Cox proportional hazard models. FINDINGS: 521 324 participants were recruited into EPIC, and 450 111 were included in this analysis (318 686 [70·8%] participants were female individuals and 131 425 [29·2%] were male individuals). In a multivariate model adjusted for sex, smoking, education, physical activity, height, and diabetes, a substitution of 10% of processed foods with an equal amount of minimally processed foods was associated with reduced risk of overall cancer (hazard ratio 0·96, 95% CI 0·95-0·97), head and neck cancers (0·80, 0·75-0·85), oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (0·57, 0·51-0·64), colon cancer (0·88, 0·85-0·92), rectal cancer (0·90, 0·85-0·94), hepatocellular carcinoma (0·77, 0·68-0·87), and postmenopausal breast cancer (0·93, 0·90-0·97). The substitution of 10% of ultra-processed foods with 10% of minimally processed foods was associated with a reduced risk of head and neck cancers (0·80, 0·74-0·88), colon cancer (0·93, 0·89-0·97), and hepatocellular carcinoma (0·73, 0·62-0·86). Most of these associations remained significant when models were additionally adjusted for BMI, alcohol and dietary intake, and quality. INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that the replacement of processed and ultra-processed foods and drinks with an equal amount of minimally processed foods might reduce the risk of various cancer types. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, l'Institut National du Cancer, and World Cancer Research Fund International.

Typology of how 'harmful commodity industries' interact with local governments in England: a critical interpretive synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: Industries that produce and market potentially harmful commodities or services (eg, tobacco, alcohol, gambling, less healthy foods and beverages) are a major influence on the drivers of behavioural risk factors for non-communicable diseases. The nature and impact of interactions between public bodies and 'harmful commodity industries' (HCIs) has been widely recognised and discussed at national and international levels, but to date little is known about such interactions at local or regional government levels. This study aimed to identify and characterise actual and potential interactions and proposes a typology of interactions between HCIs and English local authorities (LAs). METHODS: Five electronic databases covering international literature (PubMed, EBSCO, OVID, Scopus and Web of Science) were searched up to June 2021. We also performed online searches for publicly available, web-based grey literature and documented examples of interactions in an English LA context. We conducted a critical interpretive synthesis of the published and grey literature to integrate and conceptualise the data in the context of English LAs. RESULTS: We included 47 published papers to provide the frame for the typology, which was refined and contextualised for English LAs through the available grey literature. Three categories were developed, describing the medium through which interactions occur: (1) direct involvement with LAs, (2) involvement through intermediaries and (3) involvement through the local knowledge space. Within these, we grouped interactions into 10 themes defining their nature and identified illustrative examples. CONCLUSION: Our typology identifies complex inter-relationships and characterises interactions between HCIs and LAs, with illustrative examples from English LAs. Drawn from well-established theories and frameworks in combination with contextual information on English LAs, this typology explores the LA perspective and could help local decision-makers to maximise population health while minimising negative impacts of HCIs. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021257311.

Ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: from global food systems to individual exposures and mechanisms.

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become increasingly dominant globally, contributing to as much as 60% of total daily energy intake in some settings. Epidemiological evidence suggests this worldwide shift in food processing may partly be responsible for the global obesity epidemic and chronic disease burden. However, prospective studies examining the association between UPF consumption and cancer outcomes are limited. Available evidence suggests that UPFs may increase cancer risk via their obesogenic properties as well as through exposure to potentially carcinogenic compounds such as certain food additives and neoformed processing contaminants. We identify priority areas for future research and policy implications, including improved understanding of the potential dual harms of UPFs on the environment and cancer risk. The prevention of cancers related to the consumption of UPFs could be tackled using different strategies, including behaviour change interventions among consumers as well as bolder public health policies needed to improve food environments.

Trends in leading causes of hospitalisation of adults with diabetes in England from 2003 to 2018: an epidemiological analysis of linked primary care records.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes leads to a wide range of established vascular and metabolic complications that has resulted in the implementation of diverse prevention programmes across high-income countries. Diabetes has also been associated with an increased risk of a broader set of conditions including cancers, liver disease, and common infections. We aimed to examine the trends in a broad set of cause-specific hospitalisations in individuals with diabetes in England from 2003 to 2018. METHODS: In this epidemiological analysis, we identified 309 874 individuals 18 years or older with diabetes (type 1 or 2) in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics inpatient data from 2003 to 2018. We generated a mixed prevalent and incident diabetes study population through serial cross sections and follow-up over time. We used a discretised Poisson regression model to estimate annual cause-specific hospitalisation rates in men and women with diabetes across 17 cause groupings. We generated a 1:1 age-matched and sex-matched population of individuals without diabetes to compare cause-specific hospitalisation rates in those with and without diabetes. FINDINGS: Hospitalisation rates were higher for all causes in persons with diabetes than in those without diabetes throughout the study period. Diabetes itself and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of excess (defined as absolute difference in the rate in the populations with and without diabetes) hospitalisation in 2003. By 2018, non-infectious and non-cancerous respiratory conditions, non-diabetes-related cancers, and ischaemic heart disease were the most common causes of excess hospitalisation across men and women. Hospitalisation rates of people with diabetes declined and causes of hospitalisation changed. Almost all traditional diabetes complication groups (vascular diseases, amputations, and diabetes) decreased, while conditions non-specific to diabetes (cancers, infections, non-infectious and non-cancerous respiratory conditions) increased. These differing trends represented a change in the cause of hospitalisation, such that the traditional diabetes complications accounted for more than 50% of hospitalisation in 2003, but only approximately 30% in 2018. In contrast, the proportion of hospitalisations due to respiratory infections between the same time period increased from 3% to 10% in men and from 4% to 12% in women. INTERPRETATIONS: Changes in the composition of excess risk and hospitalisation burden in those with diabetes means that preventative and clinical measures should evolve to reflect the diverse set of causes that are driving persistent excess hospitalisation in those with diabetes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Consumption of ultra-processed foods associated with weight gain and obesity in adults: A multi-national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a worldwide shift towards increased consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) with concurrent rising prevalence of obesity. We examined the relationship between the consumption of UPF and weight gain and risk of obesity. METHODS: This prospective cohort included 348 748 men and women aged 25-70 years. Participants were recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 9 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Two body weight measures were available, at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5 years. Foods and drinks were assessed at baseline by dietary questionnaires and classified according to their degree of processing using NOVA classification. Multilevel mixed linear regression was used to estimate the association between UPF consumption and body weight change (kg/5 years). To estimate the relative risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years we used Poisson regression stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, higher UPF consumption (per 1 SD increment) was positively associated with weight gain (0·12 kg/5 years, 95% CI 0·09 to 0·15). Comparing highest vs. lowest quintile of UPF consumption was associated with a 15% greater risk (95% CI 1·11, 1·19) of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight participants, and with a 16% greater risk (95% CI 1·09, 1·23) of becoming obese in participants who were overweight at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: These results are supportive of public health campaigns to substitute UPF for less processed alternatives for obesity prevention and weight management.

Trends in predominant causes of death in individuals with and without diabetes in England from 2001 to 2018: an epidemiological analysis of linked primary care records.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of diabetes has increased in the UK and other high-income countries alongside a substantial decline in cardiovascular mortality. Yet data are scarce on how these trends have changed the causes of death in people with diabetes who have traditionally died primarily of vascular causes. We estimated how all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in people with diabetes have changed over time, how the composition of the mortality burden has changed, and how this composition compared with that of the non-diabetes population. METHODS: In this epidemiological analysis of primary care records, we identified 313 907 individuals with diabetes in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a well described primary care database, between 2001 to 2018, and linked these data to UK Office for National Statistics mortality data. We assembled serial cross sections with longitudinal follow-up to generate a mixed prevalence and incidence study population of patients with diabetes. We used discretised Poisson regression models to estimate annual death rates for deaths from all causes and 12 specific causes for men and women with diabetes. We also identified age-matched and sex matched (1:1) individuals without diabetes from the same dataset and estimated mortality rates in this group. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2001, and Oct 31, 2018, total mortality declined by 32% in men and 31% in women with diagnosed diabetes. Death rates declined from 40·7 deaths per 1000 person-years to 27·8 deaths per 1000 person-years in men and from 42·7 deaths per 1000 person-years to 29·5 deaths per 1000 person-years in women with diagnosed diabetes. We found similar declines in individuals without diabetes, hence the gap in mortality between those with and without diabetes was maintained over the study period. Cause-specific death rates declined in ten of the 12 cause groups, with exceptions in dementia and liver disease, which increased in both populations. The large decline in vascular disease death rates led to a transition from vascular causes to cancers as the leading contributor to death rates in individuals with diagnosed diabetes and to the gap in death rates between those with and without diabetes. INTERPRETATION: The decline in vascular death rates has been accompanied by a diversification of causes in individuals with diagnosed diabetes and a transition from vascular diseases to cancers as the leading contributor to diabetes-related death. Clinical and preventative approaches must reflect this trend to reduce the excess mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

The impact of armed conflict on cancer among civilian populations in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflicts are increasingly impacting countries with a high burden of cancer. The aim of this study is to systematically review the literature on the impact of armed conflict on cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: In November 2019, we searched five medical databases (Embase, Medline, Global Health, PsychINFO and the Web of Science) without date, language or study design restrictions. We included studies assessing the association between armed conflict and any cancer among civilian populations in LMICs. We systematically re-analysed the data from original studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were analysed descriptively by cancer site. RESULTS: Of 1,543 citations screened, we included 20 studies assessing 8 armed conflicts and 13 site-specific cancers (total study population: 70,172). Two-thirds of the studies were of low methodological quality (score <5) and their findings were often conflicting. However, among outcomes assessed by three or more studies, we found some evidence that armed conflict was associated with increases in the incidence and mortality of non-specific cancers, breast cancer and cervical cancer. Single studies reported a positive association between armed conflict and the incidence of stomach and testicular cancers, some as early as 3 years after the onset of conflict. Some studies reported a post-conflict impact on time to diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the need for more rigorous longitudinal and cohort studies of populations in and immediately post-conflict to inform the development of basic packages of cancer services, and post-conflict cancer control planning and development.

Associations between commute mode and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality, and cancer incidence, using linked Census data over 25 years in England and Wales: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Active travel is increasingly recognised as an important source of physical activity. We aimed to describe associations between commute mode and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We analysed data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales (ONS-LS), which linked data from the Census of England and Wales (henceforth referred to as the Census) for 1991, 2001, and 2011 to mortality and cancer registrations. The cohort included individuals traced in the ONS-LS who were economically active (ie, aged ≥16 years, not retired from work, and not a full-time carer). Commuting by private motorised transport, public transport, walking, and cycling were compared in terms of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality, and cancer incidence, using Cox proportional-hazards models with time-varying covariates. Models were adjusted for age, sex, housing tenure, marital status, ethnicity, university education, car access, population density, socioeconomic classification, Carstairs index quintile, long-term illness, and year entered the study, and were additionally stratified by socioeconomic group. FINDINGS: Between the 1991 Census and the 2011 Census, 784 677 individuals contributed data for at least one Census, of whom 394 746 were included in the ONS-LS and were considered to be economically active working-age individuals. 13 983 people died, 3172 from cardiovascular disease and 6509 from cancer, and there were 20 980 incident cancer cases. In adjusted models, compared with commuting by private motorised vehicle, bicycle commuting was associated with a 20% reduced rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0·80, 95% CI 0·73-0·89), a 24% decreased rate of cardiovascular disease mortality (0·76, 0·61-0·93), a 16% lower rate of cancer mortality (0·84, 0·73-0·98), and an 11% reduced rate of incident cancer (0·89, 0·82-0·97). Compared with commuting by private motorised vehicle, rail commuters had a 10% lower rate of all-cause mortality (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·83-0·97) and a 21% decreased rate of cardiovascular disease mortality (0·79, 0·67-0·94), in addition to a 12% reduced rate of incident cancer (0·88, 0·83-0·94). Walk commuting was associated with 7% lower cancer incidence (HR 0·93, 95% CI 0·89-0·97) Stratified analyses did not indicate differences in associations between socioeconomic groups. INTERPRETATION: Our findings augment existing evidence for the beneficial health effects of physically active commute modes, particularly cycling and train use, and suggest that all socioeconomic groups could benefit. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland.

England banned smoking in cars carrying children in 2015 and Scotland in 2016. We used survey data from 3 years for both countries (NEngland=3483-6920, NScotland=232-319) to assess effects of the English ban using logistic regression within a difference-in-differences framework. Among children aged 13-15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars for Scotland were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 and for England 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6%. The ban in England was associated with a -4.1% (95% CI -4.9% to -3.3%) absolute reduction (72% relative reduction) in exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011-2025. METHODS: We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACTNCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur. INTERPRETATION: Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.

Impact of armed conflict on cardiovascular disease risk: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Prolonged armed conflict may constrain efforts to address non-communicable disease in some settings. We assessed the impact of armed conflict on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among civilians in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: In February 2019, we performed a systematic review searching Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Global Health and Web of Science without language or date restrictions. We included adult, civilian populations in LMICs. Outcomes included CVDs and diabetes, and eight clinical and behavioural factors (blood pressure, blood glucose, lipids, tobacco, alcohol, body mass index, nutrition, physical activity). We systematically reanalysed data from original papers and presented them descriptively. RESULTS: Sixty-five studies analysed 23 conflicts, and 66% were of low quality. We found some evidence that armed conflict is associated with an increased coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular and endocrine diseases, in addition to increased blood pressure, lipids, alcohol and tobacco use. These associations were more consistent for mortality from chronic ischaemic heart disease or unspecified heart disease, systolic blood pressure and tobacco use. Associations between armed conflict and other outcomes showed no change, or had mixed or uncertain evidence. We found no clear patterning by conflict type, length of follow-up and study quality, nor strong evidence for publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: Armed conflict may exacerbate CVDs and their risk factors, but the current literature is somewhat inconsistent. Postconflict reconstruction efforts should deliver low-resource preventative interventions through primary care to prevent excess CVD-related morbidity and mortality. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42017065722.

Impact of the NHS Health Check on inequalities in cardiovascular disease risk: a difference-in-differences matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: We assessed impacts of a large, nationwide cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management programme on sociodemographic group inequalities in (1) early identification of hypertension, type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD); and (2) management of global CVD risk among high-risk individuals. METHODS: We obtained retrospective electronic medical records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink for a randomly selected sample of 138 788 patients aged 40-74 years without known CVD or diabetes, who were registered with 462 practices between 2009 and 2013. We estimated programme impact using a difference-in-differences matching analysis that compared changes in outcome over time between attendees and non-attendees. RESULTS: National Health Service Health Check attendance was 21.4% (29 672/138 788). A significantly greater number of hypertension and T2D incident cases were identified in men than women (eg, an additional 4.02%, 95% CI 3.65% to 4.39%, and 2.08%, 1.81% to 2.35% cases of hypertension in men and women, respectively). A significantly greater number of T2D incident cases were identified among attendees living in the most deprived areas, but no differences were found for hypertension and CKD across socioeconomic groups. No major differences in CVD risk management were observed between sociodemographic subgroups (eg, programme impact on 10-year CVD risk score was -1.13%, -1.48% to -0.78% in male and -1.53%, -2.36% to -0.71% in female attendees). CONCLUSION: During 2009-2013, the programme had low attendance and small overall impacts on early identification of disease and risk management. The age, sex and socioeconomic subgroups appeared to have derived similar level of benefits, leaving existing inequalities unchanged. These findings highlight the importance of population-wide interventions to address inequalities in CVD outcomes.

Sustained Socioeconomic Inequalities in Hospital Admissions for Cardiovascular Events Among People with Diabetes in England.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to determine changes in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in hospital admissions for major cardiovascular causes among patients with diabetes in England. METHODS: We identified all patients with diabetes aged ≥45 years admitted to the hospital in England between 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, percutaneous coronary intervention, or coronary artery bypass graft. We measured socioeconomic status using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. Diabetes-specific admission rates were calculated for each year by deprivation quintile. We assessed temporal changes using negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Most admissions occurred among patients aged ≥65 years (71%) and men (63.3%). The number of admissions increased steadily from the least quintile to the most deprived quintile. Patients in the most deprived quintile had a 1.94-fold increased risk of acute myocardial infarction (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79-2.10), 1.92-fold increased risk of stroke (95% CI, 1.78-2.07), 1.66-fold increased risk of coronary artery bypass graft (95% CI, 1.50-1.74), and 1.76-fold increased risk of percutaneous coronary intervention (95% CI, 1.64-1.89) compared with the least deprived group. Absolute differences in rates between the least and most deprived quintiles did not change significantly for acute myocardial infarction (P = .29) and were reduced for stroke, coronary artery bypass graft, and percutaneous coronary intervention (by 17.5, 15, and 11.8 per 100,000 patients with diabetes, respectively, P ≤ .01 for all). CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities persist in diabetes-related hospital admissions for major cardiovascular events in England. Besides improved risk stratification strategies that consider socioeconomically defined needs, wide-reaching population-based policy interventions are required to reduce inequalities in diabetes outcomes.

Associations of increases in public transport use with physical activity and adiposity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: We investigated predictors of two increases in older people's public transport use: initiating public transport use among non-users; and increasing public transport use amongst users. We also investigated associations of these changes with physical activity, Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference. METHODS: Data come from the 2008 and 2012 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Logistic regression assessed predictors of increases in public transport use among adults aged ≥50 years. Gender-stratified logistic and linear models assessed associations of increases in public transport use with changes in physical activity and adiposity. RESULTS: Those becoming eligible for a free older person's bus pass were more likely to both initiate and increase public transport use (e.g. for initiating public transport use Adjusted Odds Ratio (AORs) 1.77, 95% Confidence Interval 1.35; 2.33). Retiring from paid work was also associated with both initiating and increasing public transport use e.g. AOR 1.57 (1.29; 1.91) for initiating use. Women who increased public transport use had mean BMI 2.03 kg/m2 lower (- 2.84, - 1.21) at follow up than those who did not, although this was attenuated after adjusting for BMI at baseline (- 0.40 kg/m2, - 0.82, 0.01). After adjustment for baseline physical activity those initiating public transport use were more likely to undertake at least some physical activity in 2012 (e.g. AOR for women 1.67, 1.03; 2.72). CONCLUSIONS: Both initiating and increasing public transport use were associated with increased physical activity and may be associated with lower adiposity among women. These findings strengthen the case for considering public transport provision as an effective means of promoting healthier ageing.

Uptake of e-cigarettes among a nationally representative cohort of UK children.

INTRODUCTION: Using nationally representative data this study examined experimentation with and regular use of e-cigarettes among children not using tobacco at age 11 years, followed up to age 14 years. METHODS: Data come from 10 982 children in the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Logistic regression assessed experimentation with and current use of e-cigarettes by age 14 years. We considered associations of sociodemographics at age 11 years with subsequent e-cigarette use, including data on family income, peer and caregiver smoking. Subsequent models were adjusted for current tobacco use to assess both the strength of the assocations between e-cigarette use and tobacco, and whether sociodemographics were associated with e-cigarettes independently of tobacco. RESULTS: Among 10 982 children who reported never smoking at age 11 years, 13.9% (1525) had ever tried an e-cigarette by age 14 years, and of these 18.2% (278) reported being current users. Children in lower income households were more likely to have tried an e-cigarette than those in higher income households (Adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR 1.89, p=0.002). Children who reported friend (AOR 2.28, p<0.001) or caregiver smoking (AOR 1.77, p<0.001) at age 11 years were more likely to have tried an e-cigarette by age 14 years. After adjusting for current tobacco use, there was some attenuation of these associations, although associations of friend and caregiver smoking with e-cigarette use remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Children from lower income families were more likely to experiment with e-cigarettes by age 14 years, although this was heavily mediated by concurrent tobacco use. Caregiver and friend smoking are linked to trying e-cigarettes, although these relationships are less clear for regular e-cigarette use.