Low smoking exposure and development and prognosis of COPD over four decades: A population-based cohort study.

A diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is mainly considered in individuals with more than 10 pack-years of smoking. We tested the hypothesis that low smoking exposure, below the critical threshold of 10 pack-years, increases risk of COPD and leads to poor prognosis.We followed non-obstructive adult smokers from the Copenhagen City Heart Study for COPD, defined as forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV1]/forced vital capacity [FVC]<0.70 and FEV1<80% predicted, and for related clinical outcomes. First, we followed individuals for 5years according to baseline smoking for risk of developing COPD, and hereafter for up to four decades for severe exacerbations and death.In 6098 non-obstructive smokers, 1781(29%) developed COPD after 5 years follow-up; 23% in individuals with <10pack-years of smoking at baseline, 26% in those with 10-19.9pack-years, 30% in those with 20-39.9pack-years, and 39% in those with ≥40pack-years. During four decades follow-up, we recorded 620 exacerbations and 5573 deaths. Compared to individuals without COPD with <10pack-years of smoking, multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for exacerbations were 1.94(95% confidence interval:1.36-2.77) in those without COPD with ≥10pack-years, 2.83(1.72-4.66) in those with COPD with <10pack-years, 4.34(2.93-6.43) in COPD with 10-19.9pack-years, 4.39(2.98-6.47) in COPD with 20-39.9pack-years, and 4.98(3.11-7.97) in COPD with ≥40pack-years. Corresponding HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20(1.10-1.32), 1.33(1.14-1.56), 1.59(1.40-1.80),1.81(1.62-2.03), and 1.81(1.55-2.10), respectively.Low smoking exposure below the critical threshold of 10 pack-years increases risk of COPD in middle-aged adults within 5 years, and these individuals have increased risk of severe exacerbation and early death over four decades.

Housing conditions and risk of incident COPD: a Danish cohort study, 2000-2018.

BACKGROUND: More knowledge is needed on the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) associated with housing conditions and indoor environment based on cohort studies with a long follow-up time. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between housing conditions and indoor environment and the risk of developing COPD. METHODS: In this cohort study, we followed 11,590 individuals aged ≥ 30 years free of COPD at baseline. Information on incident COPD and housing conditions and indoor environment was obtained from the Danish national registers and the Danish Health and Morbidity Survey year 2000. Poisson regression of incidence rates (IRs) were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of COPD. RESULTS: The overall IR of COPD was 8.6 per 1,000 person-years. Individuals living outside the biggest cities vs. living in the biggest cities (≥ 50,000) had a lower risk of COPD (200-4,999; IRR 0.77 (95% CI 0.65-0.90). Individuals living in semi-detached houses had a higher risk compared to individuals living in detached houses (IRR 1.29 (95% CI 1.07-1.55)). Likewise, individuals living in rented homes had a higher risk (IRR 1.47 (95% CI 1.27-1.70)) compared to individuals living in owned homes. The IR of COPD was 17% higher among individuals living in dwellings build > 1982 compared with individuals living in older dwellings (< 1962), not statistically significant though (IRR 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-1.03)). Likewise, the IR of COPD was 15% higher among individuals living in the densest households compared with individuals living in the least dense households, not statistically significant though (IRR 1.15 (95% CI 0.92-1.45)). This was primary seen among smokers. There was no difference in risk among individuals with different perceived indoor environments. Overall, similar patterns were seen when stratified by smoking status with exception of perceived indoor environment, where opposite patterns were seen for smokers and never smokers. CONCLUSION: Individuals living in semi-detached houses or rented homes had a higher risk of developing COPD compared to individuals living in detached or owned homes. Individuals living in cities with < 50.000 residents had a lower risk of COPD compared to individuals living in cities with ≥ 50.000 residents.

Susceptible Young Adults and Development of COPD Later in Life.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has its origin in early life, and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) proposes a pre-disease state "pre-COPD". OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that susceptible young adults identified with chronic bronchitis and subtle lung function impairment will develop COPD later in life. METHODS: We followed random non-obstructive individuals aged 20-50years from two population-based cohorts from different smoking eras, the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2003(N=5497) and Copenhagen City Heart Study from 1976-78(N=2609), for 10 and 25years for development of COPD(forced expiratory volume in one second[FEV1]/forced vital capacity[FVC]<0.70) and COPD GOLD 2-4 (additionally FEV1<80% predicted). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After 10 years follow-up, 28% developed COPD and 13% COPD GOLD 2-4 in individuals susceptible to COPD compared to 8% and 1% in those without any susceptibility to COPD. Correspondingly, after 25years, 22% versus 13% developed COPD and 20% versus 8% developed COPD GOLD 2-4. More than half of incident COPD cases developed from a susceptible state. Compared to those without susceptibility to COPD, multivariable adjusted odds ratios in those susceptible to COPD were 3.42(95% confidence interval:2.78-4.21) for COPD and 10.1(6.77-15.2) for COPD GOLD 2-4 after 10years, and 1.54(1.23-1.93) and 2.12(1.64-2.73) after 25years. The ability of a COPD risk score consisting of the susceptibility state to COPD with smoking and asthma as risk factors to predict COPD later in life was high. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests the existence of a pre-disease state of COPD, which can be used for early identification of susceptible individuals at risk for COPD later in life.

Predicting exacerbations in COPD in the Danish general population.

BACKGROUND: Risk of exacerbations in individuals with mild chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the general population is less well described than in more advanced disease. We hypothesized that in addition to history of previous exacerbation also other clinical characteristics predict future moderate exacerbations. METHODS: In 96,462 individuals in the Copenhagen General Population Study, we identified 3175 with clinical COPD defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) < 0.70 and FEV1 <80% predicted in symptomatic individuals without asthma. We estimated the importance of age, sex, FEV1, modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) dyspnea scale, chronic bronchitis, exacerbation history, comorbidities, cohabitation, body mass index, smoking, and blood eosinophils for the 1-year and 3-year future risk of moderate COPD exacerbations and developed a prediction tool for future exacerbations in COPD in the general population based on easily available clinical information. RESULTS: We observed 265 exacerbations in 2543 maintenance treatment naïve individuals with COPD and 197 exacerbations in 632 individuals with COPD on maintenance treatment. In the maintenance treatment naïve group, exacerbation history (hazard ratio (HR): 8.53), low FEV1 (HR: 4.82 for <30% predicted versus 50-79% predicted), and higher age (HR: 1.46 for ≥75 years versus <65 years) were significant predictors of future exacerbations. In the group on maintenance treatment, male sex and mMRC ≥2 also predicted higher risk with borderline significance. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to exacerbation history also higher age and lower FEV1 predict future exacerbation risk in COPD in the general population.

Type-2 inflammation and lung function decline in chronic airway disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear if type-2 inflammation is associated with accelerated lung function decline in individuals with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We tested the hypothesis that type-2 inflammation indicated by elevated blood eosinophils (BE) and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is associated with accelerated lung function decline in the general population. METHODS: We included adults from the Copenhagen General Population Study with measurements of BE (N=15 605) and FeNO (N=2583) from a follow-up examination and assessed forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) decline in the preceding 10 years. Based on pre- and post-bronchodilator lung function, smoking history and asthma at follow-up examination, participants were assigned as not having airway disease, asthma with full reversibility (AR), asthma with persistent obstruction (APO), COPD, and not classifiable airflow limitation (NAL). RESULTS: FEV1 decline in mL/year increased with 1.0 (95% CI 0.6 to 1.4, p<0.0001) per 100 cells/µL higher BE and with 3.2 (95% CI 2.0 to 4.5, p<0.0001) per 10 ppb higher FeNO. Adjusted FEV1 decline in mL/year was 18 (95% CI 17 to 20) in those with BE<300 cells/µL and FeNO<20 ppb, 22 (19-25) in BE≥300 cells/µL or FeNO≥20 ppb, and 27 (21-33) in those with BE≥300 cells/µL and FeNO≥20 ppb (p for trend<0.0001). Corresponding FEV1 declines were 24 (19-29), 33 (25-40) and 44 (31-56) in AR (0.002), 26 (14-37), 36 (12-60) and 56 (24-89) in APO (0.07), 32 (27-36), 31 (24-38) and 44 (24-65) in COPD (0.46), and 27 (21-33), 35 (26-45), and 37 (25-49) in NAL (0.10), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Type-2 inflammation indicated by elevated BE and FeNO is associated with accelerated FEV1 decline in individuals with chronic airway disease in the general population, and this association was most pronounced in an asthma-like phenotype.

Structural Predictors of Lung Function Decline in Young Smokers with Normal Spirometry.

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to tobacco smoking commonly presents when extensive lung damage has occurred. Objectives: We hypothesized that structural change would be detected early in the natural history of COPD and would relate to loss of lung function with time. Methods: We recruited 431 current smokers (median age, 39 yr; 16 pack-years smoked) and recorded symptoms using the COPD Assessment Test (CAT), spirometry, and quantitative thoracic computed tomography (QCT) scans at study entry. These scan results were compared with those from 67 never-smoking control subjects. Three hundred sixty-eight participants were followed every six months with measurement of postbronchodilator spirometry for a median of 32 months. The rate of FEV1 decline, adjusted for current smoking status, age, and sex, was related to the initial QCT appearances and symptoms, measured using the CAT. Measurements and Main Results: There were no material differences in demography or subjective CT appearances between the young smokers and control subjects, but 55.7% of the former had CAT scores greater than 10, and 24.2% reported chronic bronchitis. QCT assessments of disease probability-defined functional small airway disease, ground-glass opacification, bronchovascular prominence, and ratio of small blood vessel volume to total pulmonary vessel volume were increased compared with control subjects and were all associated with a faster FEV1 decline, as was a higher CAT score. Conclusions: Radiological abnormalities on CT are already established in young smokers with normal lung function and are associated with FEV1 loss independently of the impact of symptoms. Structural abnormalities are present early in the natural history of COPD and are markers of disease progression. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03480347).

Impact of the metabolic syndrome on cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality in individuals with lung function impairment: a prospective cohort study of the Danish general population.

Background: Whether the metabolic syndrome plays a role for the prognosis of individuals with lung function impairment (preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) or airflow limitation) is unclear. We hypothesised that the metabolic syndrome in individuals with lung function impairment is associated with increased cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Methods: The Copenhagen General Population Study was initiated in 2003 based on a random sample of white men and women aged 20-100 years drawn from the Danish general population. The risk of ischemic heart disease/heart failure, respiratory disease, and all-cause mortality was analysed with Cox models adjusted for age, sex, current smoking, and asthma during 15 years of follow-up. Findings: Among 106,845 adults, 86,159 had normal lung function, 6126 had PRISm, and 14,560 had airflow limitation. We observed 10,448 hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 21,140 for respiratory disease, and 11,125 deaths. Individuals with versus individuals without the metabolic syndrome generally had higher 5-year absolute risk of all outcomes, including within those with normal lung function, mild-moderate-severe PRISm, and very mild-mild-moderate-severe airflow limitation alike. Compared to individuals without the metabolic syndrome and with normal lung function, those with both the metabolic syndrome and severe PRISm had hazard ratios of 3.74 (95% CI: 2.53-5.55; p < 0.0001) for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 5.02 (3.85-6.55; p < 0.0001) for respiratory disease, and 5.32 (3.76-7.54; p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality. Corresponding hazard ratios in those with both the metabolic syndrome and severe airflow limitation were 2.89 (2.34-3.58; p < 0.0001) for ischemic heart disease/heart failure, 5.98 (5.28-6.78; p < 0.0001) for respiratory disease, and 4.16 (3.50-4.95; p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality, respectively. The metabolic syndrome explained 13% and 27% of the influence of PRISm or airflow limitation on ischemic heart disease/heart failure and all-cause mortality. Interpretation: The metabolic syndrome conferred increased risk of cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality at all levels of lung function impairment. Funding: Danish Lung Foundation, Danish Heart Foundation, Capital Region of Copenhagen, and Boehringer Ingelheim. JV is supported by the NIHR Manchester BRC.

Measuring spirometry in a lung cancer screening cohort highlights possible underdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of COPD.

Introduction: COPD is underdiagnosed, and measurement of spirometry alongside low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer is one strategy to increase earlier diagnosis of this disease. Methods: Ever-smokers at high risk of lung cancer were invited to the Yorkshire Lung Screening Trial for a lung health check (LHC) comprising LDCT screening, pre-bronchodilator spirometry and a smoking cessation service. In this cross-sectional study we present data on participant demographics, respiratory symptoms, lung function, emphysema on imaging and both self-reported and primary care diagnoses of COPD. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified factors associated with possible underdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of COPD in this population, with airflow obstruction defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity ratio <0.70. Results: Out of 3920 LHC attendees undergoing spirometry, 17% had undiagnosed airflow obstruction with respiratory symptoms, representing potentially undiagnosed COPD. Compared to those with a primary care COPD code, this population had milder symptoms, better lung function and were more likely to be current smokers (p≤0.001 for all comparisons). Out of 836 attendees with a primary care COPD code who underwent spirometry, 19% did not have airflow obstruction, potentially representing misdiagnosed COPD, although symptom burden was high. Discussion: Spirometry offered alongside LDCT screening can potentially identify cases of undiagnosed and misdiagnosed COPD. Future research should assess the downstream impact of these findings to determine whether any meaningful changes to treatment and outcomes occur, and to assess the impact on co-delivering spirometry on other parameters of LDCT screening performance such as participation and adherence. Additionally, work is needed to better understand the aetiology of respiratory symptoms in those with misdiagnosed COPD, to ensure that this highly symptomatic group receive evidence-based interventions.

Trends in smoking-related diseases by socioeconomic position following a national smoking ban in 2007: a nationwide study in the Danish population.

BACKGROUND: National comprehensive smoke-free legislation has been found to decrease the incidence of several smoking-related diseases. In 2007, Denmark introduced a national smoking ban, which banned smoking indoor in workplaces and public places, although only partial restrictions were applied in certain settings. We examined the impact of the smoking ban on smoking-related diseases and whether this differed across socioeconomic groups. METHODS: Interrupted time series analyses of nationwide register data were performed using Poisson regression models to examine the differential impact of the smoking ban on monthly incidence rates of acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and smoking-related cancers from 2002 to 2015. Immediate changes in incidence rates after the smoking ban and long-term changes in disease trends were estimated by comparing data from the pre- and post-ban period. Models were stratified by socioeconomic position. RESULTS: Overall, we found neither immediate changes in rates of acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and smoking-related cancers following the smoking ban nor long-term post-ban changes in disease trends as compared to before the ban. Results did not differ across socioeconomic groups. A pronounced socioeconomic gradient in incidence rates was observed for all outcomes both before and after the smoking ban. CONCLUSION: The national smoking ban was not associated with a lower incidence of smoking-related diseases in the post-ban period compared to pre-ban levels and no differences between socioeconomic groups were observed. Future tobacco control in Denmark should consider which measures most effectively target the low socioeconomic groups to decrease the current strong socioeconomic inequality in health.

Elevated Levels of Interleukin-1ß and Interleukin-10 Are Associated With Faster Lung Function Decline in People With Well-Treated Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: People with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) have an increased risk of chronic lung diseases and chronic inflammation. We aimed to investigate if inflammatory markers and monocyte activation are associated with faster lung function decline in PWH. METHODS: We included 655 PWH from the Copenhagen Comorbidity in HIV Infection (COCOMO) Study. Eligible participants were aged ≥25 years and had 2 spirometries separated by >2 years. Inflammatory markers (interleukin [IL]-1ß, IL-2, IL-6, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α, and interferon-γ) were measured at baseline by Luminex, and soluble CD14 and soluble CD163 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Using linear mixed models, we investigated whether elevated cytokine levels were associated with faster lung function decline. RESULTS: The majority of PWH were males (85.2%) with undetectable viral replication (95.3%). We found a faster decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in PWH with elevated IL-1ß and IL-10, with an additional decline of 10.3 mL/year (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1-18.6; P = .014) and 10.0 mL/year (95% CI, 1.8-18.2; P = .017), respectively. We found no interaction between smoking and IL-1ß or IL-10 on FEV1 decline. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated IL-1ß and IL-10 were independently associated with faster lung function decline in PWH, suggesting that dysregulated systemic inflammation may play a role in the pathogenesis of chronic lung diseases.

Cluster Analyses From the Real-World NOVELTY Study: Six Clusters Across the Asthma-COPD Spectrum.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are complex diseases, the definitions of which overlap. OBJECTIVE: To investigate clustering of clinical/physiological features and readily available biomarkers in patients with physician-assigned diagnoses of asthma and/or COPD in the NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (NOVELTY; NCT02760329). METHODS: Two approaches were taken to variable selection using baseline data: approach A was data-driven, hypothesis-free and used the Pearson dissimilarity matrix; approach B used an unsupervised Random Forest guided by clinical input. Cluster analyses were conducted across 100 random resamples using partitioning around medoids, followed by consensus clustering. RESULTS: Approach A included 3796 individuals (mean age, 59.5 years; 54% female); approach B included 2934 patients (mean age, 60.7 years; 53% female). Each identified 6 mathematically stable clusters, which had overlapping characteristics. Overall, 67% to 75% of patients with asthma were in 3 clusters, and approximately 90% of patients with COPD were in 3 clusters. Although traditional features such as allergies and current/ex-smoking (respectively) were higher in these clusters, there were differences between clusters and approaches in features such as sex, ethnicity, breathlessness, frequent productive cough, and blood cell counts. The strongest predictors of the approach A cluster membership were age, weight, childhood onset, prebronchodilator FEV1, duration of dust/fume exposure, and number of daily medications. CONCLUSIONS: Cluster analyses in patients from NOVELTY with asthma and/or COPD yielded identifiable clusters, with several discriminatory features that differed from conventional diagnostic characteristics. The overlap between clusters suggests that they do not reflect discrete underlying mechanisms and points to the need for identification of molecular endotypes and potential treatment targets across asthma and/or COPD.

Faster lung function decline in people living with HIV despite adequate treatment: a longitudinal matched cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic lung disease is common among people living with HIV (PLWH). We hypothesised that PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) have faster lung function decline than matched controls. METHODS: We performed a prospective matched cohort study by including ART-treated PLWH from the Copenhagen Co-morbidity in HIV Infection Study (n=705) and the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment Pulmonary Substudy (n=425) and frequency matched population controls from the Copenhagen General Population Study (n=2895) in a 1:3 ratio. Eligible participants were ≥25 years old and had two spirometry tests separated by at least 2 years of follow-up. Forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) decline (mL/year) was compared between PLWH and controls using a linear mixed model adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and smoking status. Effect modification by smoking was investigated in subgroup analyses. RESULTS: The majority of PLWH were virally suppressed (96.1%). The adjusted mean annual decline in FEV1 was faster in PLWH than in controls with 36.4 (95% CI 33.7 to 39.1) vs 27.9 (95% CI 26.9 to 28.8) mL/year, yielding a difference of 8.5 (95% CI 5.6 to 11.4) mL/year. The association between HIV and FEV1 decline was modified by smoking, with the largest difference in current smokers (difference: 16.8 (95% CI 10.5 to 23.0) mL/year) and the smallest difference in never-smokers (difference: 5.0 (95% CI 0.7 to 9.3) mL/year). FEV1 decline >40 mL/year was more prevalent in PLWH (adjusted OR: 1.98 (95% CI 1.67 to 2.34)). CONCLUSION: Well-treated PLWH have faster lung function decline than controls and smoking seems to modify this association, suggesting that smoking may lead to more rapid lung function decline in PLWH than in controls.

Prognostic factors for mortality, intensive care unit and hospital admission due to SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As mortality from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is strongly age-dependent, we aimed to identify population subgroups at an elevated risk for adverse outcomes from COVID-19 using age-/gender-adjusted data from European cohort studies with the aim to identify populations that could potentially benefit from booster vaccinations. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to investigate the role of underlying medical conditions as prognostic factors for adverse outcomes due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), including death, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation within three separate settings (community, hospital and ICU). Cohort studies that reported at least age and gender-adjusted data from Europe were identified through a search of peer-reviewed articles published until 11 June 2021 in Ovid Medline and Embase. Results are presented as odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals and absolute risk differences in deaths per 1000 COVID-19 patients. FINDINGS: We included 88 cohort studies with age-/gender-adjusted data from 6 653 207 SARS-CoV-2 patients from Europe. Hospital-based mortality was associated with high and moderate certainty evidence for solid organ tumours, diabetes mellitus, renal disease, arrhythmia, ischemic heart disease, liver disease and obesity, while a higher risk, albeit with low certainty, was noted for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure. Community-based mortality was associated with a history of heart failure, stroke, diabetes and end-stage renal disease. Evidence of high/moderate certainty revealed a strong association between hospitalisation for COVID-19 and solid organ transplant recipients, sleep apnoea, diabetes, stroke and liver disease. INTERPRETATION: The results confirmed the strong association between specific prognostic factors and mortality and hospital admission. Prioritisation of booster vaccinations and the implementation of nonpharmaceutical protective measures for these populations may contribute to a reduction in COVID-19 mortality, ICU and hospital admissions.

Significantly increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease amongst adults with predominantly mild congenital heart disease.

Adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) face increased risk of various comorbid diseases. Previous work on lung dysfunction in this population has mainly focused on restrictive lung disease, in patients with severe CHD phenotypes. We examined the association of mild CHD with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the UK Biobank (UKB). Electronic health records (EHR) were used to identify 3385 CHD cases and 479,765 healthy controls in UKB, before performing a case-control analysis over a 20-year study period for a total of > 9.5 M person-years of follow-up. Our analysis showed that UKB participants with CHD are at substantially greater risk of developing COPD than healthy controls (8.7% vs 3.1% prevalence, unadjusted OR 2.98, 95% CI 2.63, 3.36, P = 1.40e-53). Slightly increased rates of smoking were observed amongst CHD cases, however the association with COPD was shown to be robust to adjustment for smoking and other factors known to modulate COPD risk within a multivariable-adjusted Cox regression framework (fully adjusted HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.97, 2.48, P = 5.5e-41). Care for adults with CHD should aim to mitigate their increased risk of COPD, possibly via increased smoking cessation support.

Plasma immunoglobulin E and risk of exacerbation and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A contemporary population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Novel biomarkers and targeted treatments are needed for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that high plasma immunoglobulin (Ig)E concentrations associate with increased risk of exacerbation and mortality in individuals with COPD in the general population. METHODS: Among 46,598 adults in the Copenhagen General Population Study, we included 1559 with COPD, defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70 and forced expiratory volume in 1 second < 80% predicted in individuals aged ≥ 40 years with chronic respiratory symptoms and smoking exposure ≥ 10 pack-years, and without asthma. We assessed risk of future severe exacerbation and all-cause mortality according to baseline plasma IgE ≥ 76 IU/mL, a clinical cutoff for omalizumab treatment in severe asthma. RESULTS: During 14 years of follow-up (median, 6.9; interquartile range, 3.4), we recorded 224 severe exacerbations and 434 deaths in 1559 individuals with COPD. Individuals with COPD with IgE ≥ 76 IU/mL vs those with < 76 IU/mL had a multivariable adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.43 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.89) for severe exacerbation and 1.30 (1.05-1.62) for all-cause mortality. Compared with individuals with IgE < 76 IU/mL and blood eosinophils < 300 cells/µL, the multivariable adjusted HR for severe exacerbation was 1.12 (0.76-1.67) for those with IgE < 76 IU/mL and blood eosinophils ≥ 300 cells/µL, 1.62 (1.17-2.24) for IgE ≥ 76 IU/mL and blood eosinophils < 300 cells/µL, and 1.06 (0.63-1.77) for those with IgE ≥ 76 IU/mL and blood eosinophils ≥ 300 cells/µL. Corresponding HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.27 (0.99-1.63), 1.47 (1.14-1.88), and 1.17 (0.83-1.64), respectively. CONCLUSION: High plasma IgE was associated with an increased risk of severe exacerbation and all-cause mortality in individuals with COPD in the general population, independent of blood eosinophils.

Prognosis of Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Not Eligible for Major Clinical Trials.

Rationale: Randomized controlled trials only include a subset of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) fulfilling strict inclusion criteria. Thus, most patients with COPD in a real-world setting do not have the necessary evidence to support treatment effectiveness. Objectives: To test the hypotheses that most individuals with COPD in the general population are not represented in major clinical trials despite clinically significant disease with exacerbations and early death. Methods: In 105,630 adults from a Danish contemporary population-based cohort, we defined COPD as age 40 or more years, chronic respiratory symptoms, history of smoking exposure, and airflow limitation with FEV1/FVC < 0.70. Outcomes included acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality. Symptomatic smokers without COPD were used as a reference group. Measurements and Main Results: Of all, 7,516 (7%) and 16,079 (15%) were symptomatic smokers with and without COPD. Only 44% of those with COPD were eligible for major clinical trials when applying FEV1 < 80% predicted, smoking history of 10 or more pack-years, and no comorbid asthma as common inclusion criteria. During the median 8.9 years of follow-up, we observed 2,130 acute exacerbations and 3,973 deaths in symptomatic smokers. Compared with symptomatic smokers without COPD, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for exacerbations were 7.45 (95% confidence interval, 5.41-10.3) and 29.0 (21.1-39.8) in those with COPD, respectively, excluded and eligible for clinical trials. Corresponding hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.21 (1.11-1.31) and 1.67 (1.54-1.81), respectively. Conclusions: More than half of individuals with COPD in the general population are excluded from major clinical trials; however, these individuals have a clinically significant disease with exacerbations and early death compared with symptomatic smokers without COPD.

Use of the oral beta blocker bisoprolol to reduce the rate of exacerbation in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): a randomised controlled trial (BICS).

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with significant morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. Beta blockers are well-established drugs widely used to treat cardiovascular conditions. Observational studies consistently report that beta blocker use in people with COPD is associated with a reduced risk of COPD exacerbations. The bisoprolol in COPD study (BICS) investigates whether adding bisoprolol to routine COPD treatment has clinical and cost-effective benefits. A sub-study will risk stratify participants for heart failure to investigate whether any beneficial effect of bisoprolol is restricted to those with unrecognised heart disease. METHODS: BICS is a pragmatic randomised parallel group double-blind placebo-controlled trial conducted in UK primary and secondary care sites. The major inclusion criteria are an established predominant respiratory diagnosis of COPD (post-bronchodilator FEV1 < 80% predicted, FEV1/FVC < 0.7), a self-reported history of ≥ 2 exacerbations requiring treatment with antibiotics and/or oral corticosteroids in a 12-month period since March 2019, age ≥ 40 years and a smoking history ≥ 10 pack years. A computerised randomisation system will allocate 1574 participants with equal probability to intervention or control groups, stratified by centre and recruitment in primary/secondary care. The intervention is bisoprolol (1.25 mg tablets) or identical placebo. The dose of bisoprolol/placebo is titrated up to a maximum of 4 tablets a day (5 mg bisoprolol) over 4-7 weeks depending on tolerance to up-dosing of bisoprolol/placebo-these titration assessments are completed by telephone or video call. Participants complete the remainder of the 52-week treatment period on the final titrated dose (1, 2, 3, 4 tablets) and during that time are followed up at 26 and 52 weeks by telephone or video call. The primary outcome is the total number of participant reported COPD exacerbations requiring oral corticosteroids and/or antibiotics during the 52-week treatment period. A sub-study will risk stratify participants for heart failure by echocardiography and measurement of blood biomarkers. DISCUSSION: The demonstration that bisoprolol reduces the incidence of exacerbations would be relevant not only to patients and clinicians but also to healthcare providers, in the UK and globally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN10497306 . Registered on 16 August 2018.

Potential clinical implications of targeted spirometry for detection of COPD: A contemporary population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) through targeted spirometry may provide better treatment opportunities and in the long run reduce its high burden. We therefore investigated potential beneficial clinical implications of targeted spirometry for detection of COPD and focus on both pulmonary and extrapulmonary conditions in a contemporary general population cohort. METHODS: We recruited 29 678 randomly selected adults from the Copenhagen General Population Study from 2014 to 2017. Individuals unlikely to have undiagnosed COPD with a treatment potential were excluded (age <40 or >80, no smoking or respiratory symptoms, previous COPD/asthma diagnosis). COPD was defined as pre-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) <0.70 and FEV1 <80% of predicted. RESULTS: 5520 (19%) were at high risk of undiagnosed COPD, of whom 589 (11%) fulfilled our COPD criteria. Of these, 45% were smokers, 23% reported modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale (mMRC) ≥2, 49% reported COPD assessment test (CAT) ≥10, and 12% reported low physical activity. In addition, 8% were underweight, 28% were obese, 28% had undiagnosed hypertension, 49% had undiagnosed hypercholesterolemia, and 1% had undiagnosed diabetes. When all treatable conditions were considered, only 6.5% of individuals with undiagnosed COPD had no potentially treatable condition, while 73% had at least two treatable conditions. CONCLUSIONS: In a general population setting, one undiagnosed COPD case will be detected for every tenth spirometry in smokers with respiratory symptoms. Up to half of individuals with undiagnosed COPD could potentially benefit from smoking cessation, treatment of respiratory symptoms, increased physical activity, and treatment of other undiagnosed comorbidities. LIMITATION: Post-bronchodilator spirometry was not used to diagnose COPD.

Changes in lung function in European adults born between 1884 and 1996 and implications for the diagnosis of lung disease: a cross-sectional analysis of ten population-based studies.

BACKGROUND: During the past century, socioeconomic and scientific advances have resulted in changes in the health and physique of European populations. Accompanying improvements in lung function, if unrecognised, could result in the misclassification of lung function measurements and misdiagnosis of lung diseases. We therefore investigated changes in population lung function with birth year across the past century, accounting for increasing population height, and examined how such changes might influence the interpretation of lung function measurements. METHODS: In our analyses of cross-sectional data from ten European population-based studies, we included individuals aged 20-94 years who were born between 1884 and 1996, regardless of previous respiratory diagnoses or symptoms. FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC), height, weight, and smoking behaviour were measured between 1965 and 2016. We used meta-regression to investigate how FEV1 and FVC (adjusting for age, study, height, sex, smoking status, smoking pack-years, and weight) and the FEV1/FVC ratio (adjusting for age, study, sex, and smoking status) changed with birth year. Using estimates from these models, we graphically explored how mean lung function values would be expected to progressively deviate from predicted values. To substantiate our findings, we used linear regression to investigate how the FEV1 and FVC values predicted by 32 reference equations published between 1961 and 2015 changed with estimated birth year. FINDINGS: Across the ten included studies, we included 243 465 European participants (mean age 51·4 years, 95% CI 51·4-51·5) in our analysis, of whom 136 275 (56·0%) were female and 107 190 (44·0%) were male. After full adjustment, FEV1 increased by 4·8 mL/birth year (95% CI 2·6-7·0; p<0·0001) and FVC increased by 8·8 mL/birth year (5·7-12·0; p<0·0001). Birth year-related increases in the FEV1 and FVC values predicted by published reference equations corroborated these findings. This height-independent increase in FEV1 and FVC across the last century will have caused mean population values to progressively exceed previously predicted values. However, the population mean adjusted FEV1/FVC ratio decreased by 0·11 per 100 birth years (95% CI 0·09-0·14; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: If current diagnostic criteria remain unchanged, the identified shifts in European values will allow the easier fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the systematic underestimation of lung disease severity. FUNDING: The European Respiratory Society, AstraZeneca, Chiesi Farmaceutici, GlaxoSmithKline, Menarini, and Sanofi-Genzyme.