Long-term Azithromycin in Children With Bronchiectasis Unrelated to Cystic Fibrosis: Treatment Effects Over Time.

BACKGROUND: Following evidence from randomized controlled trials, patients with bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis receive long-term azithromycin to reduce acute respiratory exacerbations. However, the period when azithromycin is effective and which patients are likely to most benefit remain unknown. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: (i) What is the period after its commencement when azithromycin is most effective? and (ii) Which factors may modify azithromycin effects? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted of our previous randomized controlled trial involving 89 indigenous children with bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. Semi-parametric Poisson regression identified the azithromycin efficacy period. Multivariable Poisson regression identified factors that modify azithromycin effect. RESULTS: Azithromycin was associated with fewer exacerbations per child-week during weeks 4 through 96, with the most effective period observed between weeks 17 and 62. Eleven factors were associated with different azithromycin effects; four were significant at the P < .05 level. Compared with their counterparts, higher reduction in exacerbations was observed in children with nasopharyngeal carriage of bacterial pathogens (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.81 [95% CI, 0.57-1.14] vs 0.29 [0.20-0.44]; P < .001); New Zealand children (IRR = 0.73 [0.51-1.03] vs 0.39 [0.28-0.55]; P = .012); and those with higher weight-for-height z scores (interaction IRR = 0.82 [0.67-0.99]; P = .044). Compared with their counterparts, lower reduction was observed in those born preterm (IRR = 0.41 [0.30-0.55] vs 0.74 [0.49-1.10]; P = .012). INTERPRETATION: Regular azithromycin is best used for at least 17 weeks and up to 62 weeks, as these periods provide maximum benefit for indigenous children with bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis. Several factors modified azithromycin benefits; however, these traits need confirmation in larger studies before being adopted into clinical practice. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12610000383066.

Ten-year prediction model for post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction and early detection of COPD: development and validation in two middle-aged population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Classifying individuals at high chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-risk creates opportunities for early COPD detection and active intervention. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a statistical model to predict 10-year probabilities of COPD defined by post-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (post-BD-AO; forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity<5th percentile). SETTING: General Caucasian populations from Australia and Europe, 10 and 27 centres, respectively. PARTICIPANTS: For the development cohort, questionnaire data on respiratory symptoms, smoking, asthma, occupation and participant sex were from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) participants at age 41-45 years (n=5729) who did not have self-reported COPD/emphysema at baseline but had post-BD spirometry and smoking status at age 51-55 years (n=2407). The validation cohort comprised participants from the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) II and III (n=5970), restricted to those of age 40-49 and 50-59 with complete questionnaire and spirometry/smoking data, respectively (n=1407). STATISTICAL METHOD: Risk-prediction models were developed using randomForest then externally validated. RESULTS: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) of the final model was 80.8% (95% CI 80.0% to 81.6%), sensitivity 80.3% (77.7% to 82.9%), specificity 69.1% (68.7% to 69.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) 11.1% (10.3% to 11.9%) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.7% (98.5% to 98.9%). The external validation was fair (AUCROC 75.6%), with the PPV increasing to 17.9% and NPV still 97.5% for adults aged 40-49 years with ≥1 respiratory symptom. To illustrate the model output using hypothetical case scenarios, a 43-year-old female unskilled worker who smoked 20 cigarettes/day for 30 years had a 27% predicted probability for post-BD-AO at age 53 if she continued to smoke. The predicted risk was 42% if she had coexistent active asthma, but only 4.5% if she had quit after age 43. CONCLUSION: This novel and validated risk-prediction model could identify adults aged in their 40s at high 10-year COPD-risk in the general population with potential to facilitate active monitoring/intervention in predicted 'COPD cases' at a much earlier age.

Is short-term exposure to grass pollen adversely associated with lung function and airway inflammation in the community?

BACKGROUND: The association between grass pollen exposure and early markers of asthma exacerbations such as lung function changes and increase in airway inflammation is limited. We investigated the associations between short-term grass pollen exposure and lung function and airway inflammation in a community-based sample, and whether any such associations were modified by current asthma, current hay fever, pollen sensitization, age, and other environmental factors. METHODS: Cross-sectional and short-term analyses of data from the Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study (MACS) participants (n = 936). Lung function was assessed using spirometry. Airway inflammation was assessed by fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) and exhaled breath condensate pH and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Daily pollen counts were collected using a volumetric spore trap. The associations were examined by linear regression. RESULTS: Higher ambient levels of grass pollen 2 days before (lag 2) were associated with lower mid-forced expiratory flow (FEF25%-75% ) and FEV1 /FVC ratio (Coef. [95% CI] = -119 [-226, -11] mL/s and -1.0 [-3.0, -0.03] %, respectively) and also 3 days before (lag 3). Increased levels of grass pollen a day before (lag 1) were associated with increased FeNO (4.35 [-0.1, 8.7] ppb) and also at lag 2. Adverse associations between pollen and multiple outcomes were greater in adults with current asthma, hay fever, and pollen sensitization. CONCLUSION: Grass pollen exposure was associated with eosinophilic airway inflammation 1-2 days after exposure and airway obstruction 2-3 days after exposure. Adults and individuals with asthma, hay fever, and pollen sensitization may be at higher risk.

Hospital characteristics, rather than surgical volume, predict length of stay following colorectal cancer surgery.

OBJECTIVE: Length of hospital stay (LOS) is considered a vital component for successful colorectal surgery treatment. Evidence of an association between hospital surgery volume and LOS has been mixed. Data modelling techniques may give inconsistent results that adversely impact conclusions. This study applied techniques to overcome possible modelling drawbacks. METHOD: An additive quantile regression model formulated to isolate hospital contextual effects was applied to every colorectal surgery for cancer conducted in Victoria, Australia, between 2005 and 2015, involving 28,343 admissions in 90 Victorian hospitals. The model compared hospitals' operational efficiencies regarding LOS. RESULTS: Hospital LOS operational efficiencies for colorectal cancer surgery varied markedly between the 90 hospitals and were independent of volume. This result was adjusted for pertinent patient and hospital characteristics. CONCLUSION: No evidence was found that higher annual surgery volume was associated with lower LOS for patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. Our model showed strong evidence that differences in LOS efficiency between hospitals was driven by hospital contextual effects that were not predicted by provider volume. Further study is required to elucidate these inherent differences between hospitals. Implications for public health: Our model indicated improved efficiency would benefit the patient and medical system by lowering LOS and reducing expenditure by more than $3 million per year.