Using population-based data to evaluate the impact of adherence to endocrine therapy on survival in breast cancer through the web-application BreCanSurvPred.

We show how the use and interpretation of population-based cancer survival indicators can help oncologists talk with breast cancer (BC) patients about the relationship between their prognosis and their adherence to endocrine therapy (ET). The study population comprised a population-based cohort of estrogen receptor positive BC patients (N = 1268) diagnosed in Girona and Tarragona (Northeastern Spain) and classified according to HER2 status (+ / -), stage at diagnosis (I/II/III) and five-year cumulative adherence rate (adherent > 80%; non-adherent ≤ 80%). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival, whereas relative survival (RS) was used to estimate the crude probability of death due to BC (PBC). Stage and adherence to ET were the significant factors for predicting all-cause mortality. Compared to stage I, risk of death increased in stage II (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51-3.30) and stage III (HR 5.11, 95% CI 3.46-7.51), and it decreased with adherence to ET (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41-0.59). PBC differences were higher in non-adherent patients compared to adherent ones and increased across stages: stage I: 6.61% (95% CI 0.05-13.20); stage II: 9.77% (95% CI 0.59-19.01), and stage III: 22.31% (95% CI 6.34-38.45). The age-adjusted survival curves derived from this modeling were implemented in the web application BreCanSurvPred ( https://pdocomputation.snpstats.net/BreCanSurvPred ). Web applications like BreCanSurvPred can help oncologists discuss the consequences of non-adherence to prescribed ET with patients.

No Excess Mortality up to 10 Years in Early Stages of Breast Cancer in Women Adherent to Oral Endocrine Therapy: A Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Approach.

Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age- and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue.

Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling.

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age-period-cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015-2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain.

Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), second tumours, and other causes is of clinical interest in the long-term follow-up of breast cancer (BC) patients. Using a cohort of BC patients (N = 6758) from the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (north-eastern Spain), we studied the 10-year probabilities of death due to BC, other cancers, and CVD according to stage at diagnosis and hormone receptor (HR) status. Among the non-BC causes of death (N = 720), CVD (N = 218) surpassed other cancers (N = 196). The BC cohort presented a significantly higher risk of death due to endometrial and ovarian cancers than the general population. In Stage I, HR- patients showed a 1.72-fold higher probability of all-cause death and a 6.11-fold higher probability of breast cancer death than HR+ patients. In Stages II-III, the probability of CVD death (range 3.11% to 3.86%) surpassed that of other cancers (range 0.54% to 3.11%). In Stage IV patients, the probability of death from any cancer drove the mortality risk. Promoting screening and preventive measures in BC patients are warranted, since long-term control should encompass early detection of second neoplasms, ruling out the possibility of late recurrence. In patients diagnosed in Stages II-III at an older age, surveillance for preventing late cardiotoxicity is crucial.

Missing data imputation and synthetic data simulation through modeling graphical probabilistic dependencies between variables (ModGraProDep): An application to breast cancer survival.

BACKGROUND: Two common issues may arise in certain population-based breast cancer (BC) survival studies: I) missing values in a survivals' predictive variable, such as "Stage" at diagnosis, and II) small sample size due to "imbalance class problem" in certain subsets of patients, demanding data modeling/simulation methods. METHODS: We present a procedure, ModGraProDep, based on graphical modeling (GM) of a dataset to overcome these two issues. The performance of the models derived from ModGraProDep is compared with a set of frequently used classification and machine learning algorithms (Missing Data Problem) and with oversampling algorithms (Synthetic Data Simulation). For the Missing Data Problem we assessed two scenarios: missing completely at random (MCAR) and missing not at random (MNAR). Two validated BC datasets provided by the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (northeastern Spain) were used. RESULTS: In both MCAR and MNAR scenarios all models showed poorer prediction performance compared to three GM models: the saturated one (GM.SAT) and two with penalty factors on the partial likelihood (GM.K1 and GM.TEST). However, GM.SAT predictions could lead to non-reliable conclusions in BC survival analysis. Simulation of a "synthetic" dataset derived from GM.SAT could be the worst strategy, but the use of the remaining GMs models could be better than oversampling. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest the use of the GM-procedure presented for one-variable imputation/prediction of missing data and for simulating "synthetic" BC survival datasets. The "synthetic" datasets derived from GMs could be also used in clinical applications of cancer survival data such as predictive risk analysis.

[Excess mortality among breast cancer patients in early stages in Tarragona and Gerona (Spain)]. / Exceso de mortalidad en las pacientes con cáncer de mama en estadios precoces en Tarragona y Gerona (España).

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the population-based survival of breast cancer (CM) diagnosed in early stages estimating the time trends of excess mortality (EM) in the long term in annual and five-year time intervals, and to determine, if possible, a proportion of patients who can be considered cured. METHOD: We included women diagnosed with BC under the age of 60 years in stages I and II in Girona and Tarragona (N = 2453). The observed (OS) and relative survival (RS) were calculated up to 20 years of follow-up. RS was also estimated at annual (RSI) and in five-year intervals (RS5) to graphically assess the EM. The results are presented by age groups (≤49 and 50-59), stage (I/II) and diagnostic period (1985-1994 and 1995-2004). RESULTS: In stage I, OS and RS were higher during 1995-2004 compared to 1985-1994: 3.5% at 15 years of follow-up and 4.5% at 20-years of follow-up. In 1995-2004, the OS surpassed 80% in stage I patients whereas in stage II it remained below 70%. During 1995-2004, the long-term EM did not level off towards 0 (RSI <1) independently of age group, stage and period of diagnosis. After 15 years of follow-up, the 5-year EM oscillated between 1 and 5% in stage I (RS5 ≥0.95) and between 5 and 10% in stage II. CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort, after 15 years of follow-up, it was detected that the annual EM did not disappear and the five-year EM remained between 1 and 10%. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a cure rate of BC during the study period.

[WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort]. / WebSurvCa: estimación vía web de las probabilidades de fallecimiento y de supervivencia de una cohorte.

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population).

Testing chemical carcinogenicity by using a transcriptomics HepaRG-based model?

The EU FP6 project carcinoGENOMICS explored the combination of toxicogenomics and in vitro cell culture models for identifying organotypical genotoxic- and non-genotoxic carcinogen-specific gene signatures. Here the performance of its gene classifier, derived from exposure of metabolically competent human HepaRG cells to prototypical non-carcinogens (10 compounds) and hepatocarcinogens (20 compounds), is reported. Analysis of the data at the gene and the pathway level by using independent biostatistical approaches showed a distinct separation of genotoxic from non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens and non-carcinogens (up to 88 % correct prediction). The most characteristic pathway responding to genotoxic exposure was DNA damage. Interlaboratory reproducibility was assessed by blindly testing of three compounds, from the set of 30 compounds, by three independent laboratories. Subsequent classification of these compounds resulted in correct prediction of the genotoxicants. As expected, results on the non-genotoxic carcinogens and the non-carcinogens were less predictive. In conclusion, the combination of transcriptomics with the HepaRG in vitro cell model provides a potential weight of evidence approach for the evaluation of the genotoxic potential of chemical substances.

Transcriptomic responses generated by hepatocarcinogens in a battery of liver-based in vitro models.

As the conventional approach to assess the potential of a chemical to cause cancer in humans still includes the 2-year rodent carcinogenicity bioassay, development of alternative methodologies is needed. In the present study, the transcriptomics responses following exposure to genotoxic (GTX) and non-genotoxic (NGTX) hepatocarcinogens and non-carcinogens (NC) in five liver-based in vitro models, namely conventional and epigenetically stabilized cultures of primary rat hepatocytes, the human hepatoma-derived cell lines HepaRG and HepG2 and human embryonic stem cell-derived hepatocyte-like cells, are examined. For full characterization of the systems, several bioinformatics approaches are employed including gene-based, ConsensusPathDB-based and classification analysis. They provide convincingly similar outcomes, namely that upon exposure to carcinogens, the HepaRG generates a gene classifier (a gene classifier is defined as a selected set of characteristic gene signatures capable of distinguishing GTX, NGTX carcinogens and NC) able to discriminate the GTX carcinogens from the NGTX carcinogens and NC. The other in vitro models also yield cancer-relevant characteristic gene groups for the GTX exposure, but some genes are also deregulated by the NGTX carcinogens and NC. Irrespective of the tested in vitro model, the most uniformly expressed pathways following GTX exposure are the p53 and those that are subsequently induced. The NGTX carcinogens triggered no characteristic cancer-relevant gene profiles in all liver-based in vitro systems. In conclusion, liver-based in vitro models coupled with transcriptomics techniques, especially in the case when the HepaRG cell line is used, represent valuable tools for obtaining insight into the mechanism of action and identification of GTX carcinogens.

DNA-methylome analysis of mouse intestinal adenoma identifies a tumour-specific signature that is partly conserved in human colon cancer.

Aberrant CpG methylation is a universal epigenetic trait of cancer cell genomes. However, human cancer samples or cell lines preclude the investigation of epigenetic changes occurring early during tumour development. Here, we have used MeDIP-seq to analyse the DNA methylome of APC(Min) adenoma as a model for intestinal cancer initiation, and we present a list of more than 13,000 recurring differentially methylated regions (DMRs) characterizing intestinal adenoma of the mouse. We show that Polycomb Repressive Complex (PRC) targets are strongly enriched among hypermethylated DMRs, and several PRC2 components and DNA methyltransferases were up-regulated in adenoma. We further demonstrate by bisulfite pyrosequencing of purified cell populations that the DMR signature arises de novo in adenoma cells rather than by expansion of a pre-existing pattern in intestinal stem cells or undifferentiated crypt cells. We found that epigenetic silencing of tumour suppressors, which occurs frequently in colon cancer, was rare in adenoma. Quite strikingly, we identified a core set of DMRs, which is conserved between mouse adenoma and human colon cancer, thus possibly revealing a global panel of epigenetically modified genes for intestinal tumours. Our data allow a distinction between early conserved epigenetic alterations occurring in intestinal adenoma and late stochastic events promoting colon cancer progression, and may facilitate the selection of more specific clinical epigenetic biomarkers.

Human embryonic stem cell derived hepatocyte-like cells as a tool for in vitro hazard assessment of chemical carcinogenicity.

Hepatocyte-like cells derived from the differentiation of human embryonic stem cells (hES-Hep) have potential to provide a human relevant in vitro test system in which to evaluate the carcinogenic hazard of chemicals. In this study, we have investigated this potential using a panel of 15 chemicals classified as noncarcinogens, genotoxic carcinogens, and nongenotoxic carcinogens and measured whole-genome transcriptome responses with gene expression microarrays. We applied an ANOVA model that identified 592 genes highly discriminative for the panel of chemicals. Supervised classification with these genes achieved a cross-validation accuracy of > 95%. Moreover, the expression of the response genes in hES-Hep was strongly correlated with that in human primary hepatocytes cultured in vitro. In order to infer mechanistic information on the consequences of chemical exposure in hES-Hep, we developed a computational method that measures the responses of biochemical pathways to the panel of treatments and showed that these responses were discriminative for the three toxicity classes and linked to carcinogenesis through p53, mitogen-activated protein kinases, and apoptosis pathway modules. It could further be shown that the discrimination of toxicity classes was improved when analyzing the microarray data at the pathway level. In summary, our results demonstrate, for the first time, the potential of human embryonic stem cell--derived hepatic cells as an in vitro model for hazard assessment of chemical carcinogenesis, although it should be noted that more compounds are needed to test the robustness of the assay.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet and risk of coronary heart disease in the Spanish EPIC Cohort Study.

No known cohort study has investigated whether the Mediterranean diet can reduce incident coronary heart disease (CHD) events in a Mediterranean population. This study examined the relation between Mediterranean diet adherence and risk of incident CHD events in the 5 Spanish centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Analysis included 41,078 participants aged 29-69 years, recruited in 1992-1996 and followed up until December 2004 (mean follow-up:10.4 years). Confirmed incident fatal and nonfatal CHD events were analyzed according to Mediterranean diet adherence, measured by using an 18-unit relative Mediterranean diet score. A total of 609 participants (79% male) had a fatal or nonfatal confirmed acute myocardial infarction (n = 468) or unstable angina requiring revascularization (n = 141). After stratification by center and age and adjustment for recognized CHD risk factors, high compared with low relative Mediterranean diet score was associated with a significant reduction in CHD risk (hazard ratio = 0.60, 95% confidence interval: 0.47, 0.77). A 1-unit increase in relative Mediterranean diet score was associated with a 6% reduced risk of CHD (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.97), with similar risk reductions by sex. Mediterranean diet adherence was associated with a significantly reduced CHD risk in this Mediterranean country, supporting its role in primary prevention of CHD in healthy populations.

Study of candidate genes affecting the progression of renal disease in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease type 1.

BACKGROUND: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a systemic disorder with a wide spectrum of renal involvement. Differences in the age at onset of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are partially explained by the genetic heterogeneity of the disease but intrafamilial variability remains to be explained. Modifier genes may play a role in disease severity. METHODS: A total of 355 PKD1 patients from 131 families belonging to three different European centres were analysed. According to the age at onset of ESRD patients were classified into two groups: early and late onset. Two different cut-offs were used. Based on literature, early onset was firstly considered when ESRD was reached before 40 years of age and late onset after 60 years of age. Secondly, according to the bimodal distribution of age at onset of ESRD in our population we established two groups with similar variability and the cut-offs were assigned before 48 years of age and after 56 years of age. These groups of patients were then analysed by two different complementary perspectives: (i) using ESRD onset as a quantitative trait when performing survival analysis and Cox regression analysis, and (ii) considering it a qualitative trait. The candidate genes (and polymorphisms) studied were the following: NOS3 (T-786C and E298D), BDKRB1 (-699 G > C), BDKRB2 (R14C), TGFB1 (-509 C > T, R25P and L10P), ACE (I/D), EGFR (IVS1CA) and PKD2 (-9780 G > A, -718 A > G and 83 C > G). RESULTS: The results disclosed that the ACE polymorphism had a slight influence on the age of onset of ESRD in ADPKD patients and the NOS3 and BDKBR1 polymorphisms showed a very slight involvement in renal outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our results discard the most prominent functional genes suggested to date, to have a major effect on ADPKD progression in this cohort. Genes strongly implicated in disease severity are yet to be identified. The description of such genes would allow us to establish a prognosis for ADPKD and eventually to develop therapeutic interventions.