Association of body mass index and waist circumference with long-term mortality risk in 10,370 coronary patients and potential modification by lifestyle and health determinants.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Body adiposity is known to affect mortality risk in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We examined associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with long term mortality in Dutch CAD patients, and potential and effect modification of these associations by lifestyle and health determinants. METHODS: 10,370 CAD patients (mean age ∼65 y; 20% female; >80% on cardiovascular drugs) from the prospective Alpha Omega Cohort and Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease study were included. Cox models were used to estimate categorical and continuous associations (using restricted cubic splines) of measured BMI and WC with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk, adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity and educational level. Analyses were repeated in subgroups of lifestyle factors (smoking, physical activity, diet quality), education and health determinants (diabetes, self-rated health). RESULTS: During ∼10 years of follow-up (91,947 person-years), 3,553 deaths occurred, including 1,620 from cardiovascular disease. U-shaped relationships were found for BMI and mortality risk, with the lowest risk for overweight patients (BMI ∼27 kg/m2). For obesity (BMI ≥30), the HR for all-cause mortality was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.41) in male patients and 1.10 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.30) in female patients, compared to BMI 25-30 kg/m2. WC was also non-linearly associated with mortality, and HRs were 1.18 (95%CI:1.06, 1.30) in males and 1.31 (95%CI:1.05, 1.64) in females for the highest vs. middle category of WC. Results for cardiovascular mortality were mostly in line with the results for all-cause mortality. U-shaped associations were found in most subgroups, associations were moderately modified by physical activity, smoking and educational level. CONCLUSIONS: CAD patients with obesity and a large WC were at increased risk of long-term CVD and all-cause mortality, while mildly overweight patients had the lowest risk. These associations were consistent across subgroups of patients with different lifestyles and health status.

Development and validation of a lifetime prediction model for incident type 2 diabetes in patients with established cardiovascular disease: the CVD2DM model.

AIMS: Identifying patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) may allow for early interventions, reducing the development of T2D and associated morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate the CVD2DM model to estimate the 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D in patients with established CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Sex-specific, competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were derived in 19 281 participants with established CVD and without diabetes at baseline from the UK Biobank. The core model's pre-specified predictors were age, current smoking, family history of diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and HDL cholesterol. The extended model also included HbA1c. The model was externally validated in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study. During a median follow-up of 12.2 years (interquartile interval 11.3-13.1), 1628 participants with established CVD were diagnosed with T2D in the UK Biobank. External validation c-statistics were 0.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.82] for the core model and 0.81 (95% CI 0.78-0.84) for the extended model. Calibration plots showed agreement between predicted and observed 10-year risk of T2D. CONCLUSION: The 10-year and lifetime risks of T2D can be estimated with the CVD2DM model in patients with established CVD, using readily available clinical predictors. The model would benefit from further validation across diverse ethnic groups to enhance its applicability. Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

In this study, we developed and externally validated the CVD2DM model, which predicts the 10-year and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in individuals who already have cardiovascular disease (CVD). The key findings are as follows: The CVD2DM model is the first model to estimate the risk of developing T2D applicable in all patients with atherosclerotic CVD. The model is based on several factors available in clinical practice, such as age, fasting plasma glucose, family history of diabetes, and body mass index. It was developed in 19 281 patients from the UK Biobank. The model performed well in 3481 patients from the UCC-SMART study.Informing patients about their T2D risk could motivate them further to adhere to a healthy lifestyle.

Sex differences in modifiable risk factors for stroke incidence and recurrence: the UCC-SMART study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Risk factors for stroke differ between women and men in general populations. However, little is known about sex differences in secondary prevention. We investigated if sex interacted with modifiable risk factors for stroke in a large arterial disease cohort. METHODS: Within the prospective UCC-SMART study, 13,898 patients (35% women) with atherosclerotic disease or high-risk factor profile were followed up to 23 years for stroke incidence or recurrence. Hypertension, smoking, diabetes, overweight, dyslipidemia, high alcohol use, and physical inactivity were studied as risk factors. Association between these factors and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence or recurrence was studied in women and men using Cox proportional hazard models and Poisson regression models. Women-to-men relative hazard ratios (RHR) and rate differences (RD) were estimated for each risk factor. Left-truncated age was used as timescale. RESULTS: The age-adjusted stroke incidence rate was lower in women than men (3.9 vs 4.4 per 1000 person-years), as was the age-adjusted stroke recurrence rate (10.0 vs 11.7). Hypertension and smoking were associated with stroke risk in both sexes. HDL cholesterol was associated with lower stroke incidence in women but not in men (RHR 0.49; CI 0.27-0.88; and RD 1.39; CI - 1.31 to 4.10). Overweight was associated with a lower stroke recurrence in women but not in men (RHR 0.42; CI 0.23-0.80; and RD 9.05; CI 2.78-15.32). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk population, sex modifies the association of HDL cholesterol on stroke incidence, and the association of overweight on stroke recurrence. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific secondary prevention.

Lifetime and 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in individuals with type 1 diabetes: The LIFE-T1D model.

AIMS: To develop and externally validate the LIFE-T1D model for the estimation of lifetime and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 1 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A sex-specific competing risk-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was derived in individuals with type 1 diabetes without prior CVD from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR), using age as the time axis. Predictors included age at diabetes onset, smoking status, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin level, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria and retinopathy. The model was externally validated in the Danish Funen Diabetes Database (FDDB) and the UK Biobank. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11.8 years (interquartile interval 6.1-17.1 years), 4608 CVD events and 1316 non-CVD deaths were observed in the NDR (n = 39 756). The internal validation c-statistic was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.85) and the external validation c-statistics were 0.77 (95% CI 0.74-0.81) for the FDDB (n = 2709) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.77) for the UK Biobank (n = 1022). Predicted risks were consistent with the observed incidence in the derivation and both validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The LIFE-T1D model can estimate lifetime risk of CVD and CVD-free life expectancy in individuals with type 1 diabetes without previous CVD. This model can facilitate individualized CVD prevention among individuals with type 1 diabetes. Validation in additional cohorts will improve future clinical implementation.

Cost-effectiveness of Mediterranean diet and physical activity in secondary CVD prevention: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study.

AIMS: The efficacy of a healthy lifestyle in secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established and a first-line recommendation in CVD prevention guidelines. The aim of this study was to assess if they are also cost-effective in patients with established CVD. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis (CUA) was performed comparing a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention to usual care in CVD patients. The CUA had a healthcare perspective and lifetime horizon. Costs and utilities were estimated using a microsimulation on a cohort of 100,000 CVD patients sampled from the UCC-SMART study (N = 8,947, mean age 62 ±8.7 years and 74% male). Cost-effectiveness was expressed as incrementalcost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), incremental net health benefit (INHB) and incremental net monetary benefit (INMB). RESULTS: Mediterranean diet and physical activity yielded 2.0 incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost reductions of €1,236 per person compared to usual care, resulting in an ICER of €-626/QALY (95%CI -1,929 to 2,673). At a willingness-to-pay of €20,000/QALY, INHB was 2.04 (95%CI 0.99-3.58) QALY and INMB was €40,757 (95%CI 19,819-71,605). The interventions remained cost-effective in a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including worst-case scenarios and scenarios with reimbursement for food and physical activity costs. CONCLUSION: In patients with established CVD, a combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention was cost-saving and highly cost-effective compared to usual care. These findings strongly advocate for the incorporation of lifestyle interventions as integral components of care for all CVD patients.

Lifestyle optimization, including physical activity and healthy diet, is a central recommendation for preventing recurrent cardiovascular events. In this study, we assessed if improving physical activity habits and adherence to a heart-healthy Mediterranean diet would also be a cost-effective option. The results were remarkable - following the Mediterranean diet and engaging in physical activity was expected to result in an increase of 2.0 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, equal to a life year in perfect health) and cost savings. This means that lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention improves population health, while reducing overall health care costs. These findings underscore the importance of implementing lifestyle changes in the care for all individuals with CVD. A health lifestyle is not only effective in improving health but also a prudent financial decision. Key messages  A combined Mediterranean diet and physical activity intervention is expected to result in two additional QALYs and three additional life years free of recurrent cardiovascular events per patient with with established CVDTargeting a healthy lifestyle is expected to lead to costs savings compared to usual care, due to the low costs of the intervention and the high efficacy in preventing recurrent cardiovascular events.Lifestyle optimization in secondary CVD prevention was shown to result in a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €-626/QALY, which strongly advocates for healthy policy targeted at implementing lifestyle interventions in regular care for CVD patients.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions. CONCLUSION: With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD. KEY FINDINGS: Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Patients with established cardiovascular disease are at high risk for new cardiovascular events. The European Society of Cardiology guideline for the prevention of cardiovascular disease introduced a stepwise treatment approach. Step 1 in this approach are treatments that apply to all patients, and Step 2 are intensive treatments that can be prescribed to patients who are still at high risk of new events even with Step 1 treatments. The current study investigates the effect of Steps 1 and 2 on the risk of cardiovascular disease in 27 094 patients all across Europe. With the conventional treatments of Step 1 the risk of cardiovascular disease remains high, with a 10-year risk of new events higher than 10% in 80­99% of patients. The intensive treatment options from Step 2 could prevent additional 198­245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients that are treated. With intensive treatment, up to 63% of patients could achieve a 10-year risk of new cardiovascular disease below 10%.

Validation of Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population cohort.

AIMS: The European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) and SCORE2-Older Persons (OP) models are recommended to identify individuals at high 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Independent validation and assessment of clinical utility is needed. This study aims to assess discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of low-risk SCORE2 and SCORE2-OP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Validation in individuals aged 40-69 years (SCORE2) and 70-79 years (SCORE2-OP) without baseline CVD or diabetes from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk prospective population study. We compared 10-year CVD risk estimates with observed outcomes (cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and stroke). For SCORE2, 19 560 individuals (57% women) had 10-year CVD risk estimates of 3.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-3.7] vs. observed 3.8% (95% CI 3.6-4.1) [observed (O)/expected (E) ratio 1.0 (95% CI 1.0-1.1)]. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.77), with underestimation of risk in men [O/E 1.4 (95% CI 1.3-1.6)] and overestimation in women [O/E 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8)]. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed clinical benefit. Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Older Persons in 3113 individuals (58% women) predicted 10-year CVD events in 10.2% (95% CI 10.1-10.3) vs. observed 15.3% (95% CI 14.0-16.5) [O/E ratio 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-1.7)]. The AUC was 0.63 (95% CI 0.60-0.65) with underestimation of risk across sex and risk ranges. Decision curve analysis showed limited clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: In a UK population cohort, the SCORE2 low-risk model showed fair discrimination and calibration, with clinical benefit for preventive treatment initiation decisions. In contrast, in individuals aged 70-79 years, SCORE2-OP demonstrated poor discrimination, underestimated risk in both sexes, and limited clinical utility.

To effectively prevent heart disease, it is important to identify individuals who are at a higher risk of developing it. Researchers have developed models that can estimate the likelihood of a healthy person developing heart disease within the next 10 years. This study, involving 22 673 healthy individuals in the UK, aimed to determine if these risk estimation models are accurate and can guide decisions about who should receive preventive treatment.

Long-term lifestyle change and risk of mortality and Type 2 diabetes in patients with cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: To quantify the relationship between self-reported, long-term lifestyle changes (smoking, waist circumference, physical activity, and alcohol consumption) and clinical outcomes in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were used from 2011 participants (78% male, age 57 ± 9 years) from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort who returned for a re-assessment visit (SMART2) after ∼10 years. Self-reported lifestyle change was classified as persistently healthy, improved, worsened, or persistently unhealthy. Cox proportional hazard models were used to quantify the relationship between lifestyle changes and the risk of (cardiovascular) mortality and incident Type 2 diabetes (T2D). Fifty-seven per cent of participants was persistently healthy, 17% improved their lifestyle, 8% worsened, and 17% was persistently unhealthy. During a median follow-up time of 6.1 (inter-quartile range 3.6-9.6) years after the SMART2 visit, 285 deaths occurred, and 99 new T2D diagnoses were made. Compared with a persistently unhealthy lifestyle, individuals who maintained a healthy lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.63], cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87), and incident T2D (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.28-0.73). Similarly, those who improved their lifestyle had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.37-0.74), cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.26-0.81), and incident T2D (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27-0.92). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that maintaining or adopting a healthy lifestyle can significantly lower mortality and incident T2D risk in CVD patients. This study emphasizes the importance of ongoing lifestyle optimization in CVD patients, highlighting the potential for positive change regardless of previous lifestyle habits.

In this study, we investigated whether lifestyle changes were related to improved health outcomes in individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed self-reported lifestyle behaviours (smoking, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, and physical activity), at inclusion in the cohort and again ∼10 years later. The results emphasize the importance of making healthy lifestyle choices, even for individuals already diagnosed with CVD, and suggest that it is never too late to improve one's lifestyle.

Validating the SMART2 Score in a Racially Diverse High-Risk Nationwide Cohort of Patients Receiving Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Background We tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for use in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods and Results We conducted an external validation of the SMART2 score in a racially diverse high-risk national cohort (2010-2019) that underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. We calculated the preoperative SMART2 score and modeled the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality+myocardial infarction+stroke) incidence. We evaluated SMART2 score discrimination at 5 years using c-statistic and calibration with observed/expected ratio and calibration plots. We analyzed the potential clinical benefit using decision curves. We repeated these analyses in clinical subgroups, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and polyvascular disease, and separately in White and Black patients. In 27 443 (mean age, 65 years; 10% Black individuals) US veterans undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (2010-2019) nationwide, the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event rate was 25%; 27% patients were in high predicted risk (>30% 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events). SMART2 score discrimination (c-statistic: 64) was comparable to the original study (c-statistic: 67) and was best in patients with chronic kidney disease (c-statistic: 66). However, it underpredicted major adverse cardiovascular event rates in the whole cohort (observed/expected ratio, 1.45) as well as in all studied subgroups. The SMART2 score performed better in White than Black patients. On decision curve analysis, the SMART2 score provides a net benefit over a wide range of risk thresholds. Conclusions The SMART2 model performs well in a racially diverse coronary artery bypass grafting cohort, with better predictive capabilities at the upper range of baseline risk, and can therefore be used to guide secondary preventive pharmacotherapy.

Effect of adipose tissue quantity and dysfunction on the risk of cancer in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the role of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction in the risk of cancer in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to compare this to individuals without T2D. METHODS: Individuals with (n = 1925) and without T2D (n = 10,204) were included from the UCC-SMART cohort. Incident cancer diagnoses were obtained by linkage with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Metabolic dysfunction was defined as ≥ 3 adapted NCEP ATP-III metabolic syndrome criteria. The effects of waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction on cancer were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.3 years (IQR 4.2-13.1), 1740 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. Incidence rates of total cancer were 19.3 and 15.5/1000 person-years for individuals with and without T2D, respectively. In individuals without T2D, a higher waist circumference was associated with an increased risk of colorectal (per standard deviation: HR 1.23; 95%CI 1.03-1.46), urinary tract (HR 1.28; 95%CI 1.05-1.56) and total cancer (HR 1.06; 95%CI 1.02-1.13). Metabolic dysfunction was related to an increased risk of colorectal (HR 1.35; 95%CI 1.01-1.82), lung (HR 1.37; 95%CI 1.07-1.75) and total cancer (HR 1.13; 95%CI 1.01-1.25) in individuals without T2D. In individuals with T2D, no significant associations were found. CONCLUSION: Incidence rates of cancer are higher among individuals with T2D. However, higher waist circumference and metabolic dysfunction are only associated with an increased cancer risk in patients without T2D. These findings provide novel insights into the role of metabolic dysfunction in the occurrence of cancer.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Incident Heart Failure in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at high risk of incident heart failure (HF), which may in part reflect the impact of systemic inflammation. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to determine the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and incident HF in patients with established CVD. METHODS: Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART (Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort with established CVD, but without prevalent HF were included (n = 8,089). Incident HF was defined as a first hospitalization for HF. The association between baseline CRP and incident HF was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors (ie, age, sex, myocardial infarction, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and kidney function). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.7 years (IQR 5.4-14.1 years), 810 incident HF cases were observed (incidence rate 1.01/100 person-years). Higher CRP was independently associated with an increased risk of incident HF: HR per 1 mg/L: 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), and for last vs first CRP quartile: 2.22 (95% CI: 1.76-2.79). The association was significant for both HF with reduced (HR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14) and preserved ejection fraction (HR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.07-1.18) (P for difference = 0.137). Additional adjustment for medication use and interim myocardial infarction did not attenuate the association, and the association remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with established CVD, CRP is an independent risk marker of incident HF. These data support ongoing trial efforts to assess whether anti-inflammatory agents can reduce the burden of HF.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of Stroke Risk in Patients With Medically Treated Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of carotid procedures (surgery and stenting) in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) depends on the absolute risk reduction that patients might receive from these procedures. We aimed to quantify the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke and examined temporal trends and determinants of these risks in patients with ACAS treated conservatively. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review from inception to March 9, 2023, of peer-reviewed trials and cohort studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk in medically treated patients with ACAS of ≥50%. Risk of bias was assessed with an adapted version of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. We calculated the annual incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke. We explored temporal trends and associations of sex and degree of stenosis with ipsilateral ischemic stroke using Poisson metaregression analysis and incidence rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: After screening 5915 reports, 73 studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke rates of 28 625 patients with midyear of recruitment ranging from 1976 to 2014 were included. The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93-1.04) per 100 patient-years (median duration of follow-up, 3.3 years). The incidence decreased 24% with every 5 years more recent midyear of recruitment (rate ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73-0.78]). Incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke were lower in female patients (rate ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63-0.87]) and in patients with moderate versus severe stenosis when assessed in cohort studies, with incidence rate ratios of 0.41 ([95% CI, 0.35-0.49] cutoff, 70%) and 0.42 ([95% CI, 0.30-0.59] cutoff, 80%). CONCLUSIONS: Reported risks of ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with ACAS have declined 24% every 5 years from mid-1970s onward, further challenging the routine use of carotid procedures. Risks were lower in female patients and more than twice as high with severe compared with moderate ACAS. Inclusion of these findings in individualized risk assessment can help to determine the benefit of carotid procedures in selected individual patients with ACAS. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/; Unique identifier: CRD42021222940.

Improving 10-year cardiovascular risk prediction in apparently healthy people: flexible addition of risk modifiers on top of SCORE2.

AIMS: In clinical practice, factors associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) like albuminuria, education level, or coronary artery calcium (CAC) are often known, but not incorporated in cardiovascular risk prediction models. The aims of the current study were to evaluate a methodology for the flexible addition of risk modifying characteristics on top of SCORE2 and to quantify the added value of several clinically relevant risk modifying characteristics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Individuals without previous CVD or DM were included from the UK Biobank; Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC); Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA); European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, The Netherlands (EPIC-NL); and Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) studies (n = 409 757) in whom 16 166 CVD events and 19 149 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed over exactly 10.0 years of follow-up. The effect of each possible risk modifying characteristic was derived using competing risk-adjusted Fine and Gray models. The risk modifying characteristics were applied to individual predictions with a flexible method using the population prevalence and the subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of the relevant predictor. Risk modifying characteristics that increased discrimination most were CAC percentile with 0.0198 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0115; 0.0281] and hs-Troponin-T with 0.0100 (95% CI 0.0063; 0.0137). External validation was performed in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) cohort (UK, n = 518 015, 12 675 CVD events). Adjustment of SCORE2-predicted risks with both single and multiple risk modifiers did not negatively affect calibration and led to a modest increase in discrimination [0.740 (95% CI 0.736-0.745) vs. unimproved SCORE2 risk C-index 0.737 (95% CI 0.732-0.741)]. CONCLUSION: The current paper presents a method on how to integrate possible risk modifying characteristics that are not included in existing CVD risk models for the prediction of CVD event risk in apparently healthy people. This flexible methodology improves the accuracy of predicted risks and increases applicability of prediction models for individuals with additional risk known modifiers.

Heart disease is a major health concern worldwide, and predicting an individual's risk for developing heart disease is an important tool for prevention. Current risk prediction models often use factors such as age, gender, smoking, and blood pressure, but other factors like education level, albuminuria (protein in the urine), and coronary artery calcium (CAC) may also affect an individual's risk. The aim of this study was to develop a new method for using these additional risk factors for predicting risk even more accurately. The researchers used data from several large studies that included over 400 000 apparently healthy individuals who were followed for 10 years. They examined the effect of various risk factors on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using a statistical model. They found that adding coronary scan ('CAC score'); NT-proBNP, a biomarker of heart strain; and hs-Troponin-T, a marker of heart damage, to the existing risk prediction model (SCORE2) improved the accuracy of predicted CVD risk. The key findings are: The methods presented in the current study can help to add additional risk factors to predictions of existing models, such as SCORE2. This flexible method may help identify individuals who are at higher risk for CVD and guide prevention strategies.

C-Reactive Protein and Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Mortality in Patients with Various Cardiovascular Disease Locations.

Anti-inflammatory drugs reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), but less is known about the relation between inflammation and outcomes in patients with cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). This study assessed the association between C-reactive protein (CRP) and clinical outcomes in patients with CAD (n = 4,517), CeVD (n = 2,154), PAD (n = 1,154), and AAA (n = 424) from the prospective Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease study. The primary outcome was recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD), defined as myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular death. Secondary outcomes were major adverse limb events and all-cause mortality. Associations between baseline CRP and outcomes were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glomerular filtration rate. Results were stratified by CVD location. During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 1,877 recurrent CVD events, 887 major adverse limb events, and 2,341 deaths were observed. CRP was independently associated with recurrent CVD (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mg/L 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05 to 1.10), and all secondary outcomes. Compared with the first quintile of CRP, HRs for recurrent CVD were 1.60 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.89) for the last quintile ≤10 mg/L and 1.90 (95% CI 1.58 to 2.29) for the subgroup with CRP >10 mg/L. CRP was associated with recurrent CVD in patients with CAD (HR per 1 mg/L 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.11), CeVD (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.10), PAD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.13), and AAA (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.15). The association between CRP and all-cause mortality was stronger for patients with CAD (HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.16) than for patients with other CVD locations (HRs 1.06 to 1.08; p = 0.002). Associations remained consistent beyond 15 years after the CRP measurement. In conclusion, greater CRP is independently associated with an increased risk of recurrent CVD and mortality, irrespective of previous CVD location.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of incident heart failure in non-diabetic patients with established cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: In patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD), the relation between metabolic syndrome (MetS) and incident heart failure (HF) in the absence of diabetes mellitus (DM) is largely unknown. This study assessed this relation in non-diabetic patients with established CVD. METHODS: Patients from the prospective UCC-SMART cohort with established CVD, but without DM or HF at baseline were included (n = 4653). MetS was defined according to the Adult Treatment Panel III criteria. Insulin resistance was quantified using the homeostasis model of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). The outcome was a first hospitalization for HF. Relations were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors: age, sex, prior myocardial infarction (MI), smoking, cholesterol, and kidney function. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 8.0 years, 290 cases of incident HF were observed (0.81/100 person years). MetS was significantly related to an increased risk of incident HF independent of established risk factors (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.68, HR per criterion 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.29), as was HOMA-IR (HR per standard deviation [SD] 1.15; 95% CI 1.03-1.29). Of the individual MetS components, only higher waist circumference independently increased the risk of HF (HR per SD 1.34; 95% CI 1.17-1.53). Relations were independent of the occurrence of interim DM and MI, and were not significantly different for HF with reduced vs preserved ejection fraction. CONCLUSION: In CVD patients without a current diagnosis of DM, MetS and insulin resistance increase the risk of incident HF independent of established risk factors.

Cohort profile: the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study-an ongoing prospective cohort study of patients at high cardiovascular risk in the Netherlands.

PURPOSE: The Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (UCC-SMART) Study is an ongoing prospective single-centre cohort study with the aim to assess important determinants and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease progression. This article provides an update of the rationale, design, included patients, measurements and findings from the start in 1996 to date. PARTICIPANTS: The UCC-SMART Study includes patients aged 18-90 years referred to the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, for management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or severe cardiovascular risk factors. Since September 1996, a total of 14 830 patients have been included. Upon inclusion, patients undergo a standardised screening programme, including questionnaires, vital signs, laboratory measurements, an ECG, vascular ultrasound of carotid arteries and aorta, ankle-brachial index and ultrasound measurements of adipose tissue, kidney size and intima-media thickness. Outcomes of interest are collected through annual questionnaires and adjudicated by an endpoint committee. FINDINGS TO DATE: By May 2022, the included patients contributed to a total follow-up time of over 134 000 person-years. During follow-up, 2259 patients suffered a vascular endpoint (including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke and vascular death) and 2794 all-cause deaths, 943 incident cases of diabetes and 2139 incident cases of cancer were observed up until January 2020. The UCC-SMART cohort contributed to over 350 articles published in peer-reviewed journals, including prediction models recommended by the 2021 European Society of Cardiology CVD prevention guidelines. FUTURE PLANS: The UCC-SMART Study guarantees an infrastructure for research in patients at high cardiovascular risk. The cohort will continue to include about 600 patients yearly and follow-up will be ongoing to ensure an up-to-date cohort in accordance with current healthcare and scientific knowledge. In the near future, UCC-SMART will be enriched by echocardiography, and a food frequency questionnaire at baseline enabling the assessment of associations between nutrition and CVD and diabetes.

Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score.

AIMS: Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding. CONCLUSION: The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

Leisure-time and occupational physical activity and health outcomes in cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: In healthy populations, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) improves health outcomes, while, paradoxically, occupational physical activity (OPA) is associated with detrimental health effects. This study aimed to investigate the associations of LTPA and OPA with mortality, cardiovascular events and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: In 7058 outpatients with CVD (age 61±10 years, 75% male) from the prospective Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort, Cox models were used to quantify the associations between self-reported LTPA and OPA and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events and T2D. RESULTS: Over 8.6 years (IQR: 4.6-12.5) of follow-up, 1088 vascular events, 1254 deaths and 447 incident T2D cases occurred. The top LTPA quarter had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.74), recurrent cardiovascular events (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.84) and incident T2D (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.93), compared with the lowest quarter. The continuous LTPA associations were reverse J-shaped for all-cause mortality and vascular events and linear for T2D. OPA (heavy manual vs sedentary) showed a trend towards an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.35), cardiovascular events (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.45) and T2D (HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.50). The detrimental effects of higher OPA were more pronounced in men, never-smokers, people with higher education and active employment. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CVD, LTPA was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality, recurrent cardiovascular events and incident T2D. In contrast, OPA seemed to increase the risk of these outcomes. These findings support the existence of a physical activity paradox in patients with CVD.

Lifestyle changes and kidney function: A 10-year follow-up study in patients with manifest cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at higher risk of kidney function decline. The current study aimed to examine the association of lifestyle changes with kidney function decline in patients with manifest CVD. METHODS: A total of 2260 patients from the Utrecht Cardiovascular Cohort-Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease cohort with manifest CVD who returned for a follow-up visit after a median of 9.9 years were included. The relation between change in lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and obesity) and change in kidney function (eGFR and uACR) was assessed using linear regression models. RESULTS: An increase in body mass index (ß -2.81; 95% CI -3.98; -1.63 per 5 kg/m2 ) and for men also an increase in waist circumference (ß -0.87; 95% CI -1.28; -0.47 per 5 cm) were significantly associated with a steeper decline in eGFR over 10 years. Continuing smoking (ß -2.44, 95% CI -4.43; -0.45) and recent smoking cessation during follow-up (ß -3.27; 95% CI -5.20; -1.34) were both associated with a steeper eGFR decline compared to patients who remained as non- or previous smokers from baseline. No significant association was observed between physical exercise or alcohol consumption and kidney function decline. No significant relation between any lifestyle factor and change in uACR was observed. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CVD, continuing smoking, recent smoking cessation and an increase in obesity markers were related to a steeper kidney function decline. Although no definite conclusions from this study can be drawn, the results support the importance of encouraging weight loss and smoking cessation in high-risk patients as a means of slowing down kidney function decline.

Modifiable risk factors in adults with and without prior cardiovascular disease: findings from the Indonesian National Basic Health Research.

BACKGROUNDS: The majority of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are modifiable. Continuous monitoring and control of these factors could significantly reduce the risk of CVDs-related morbidity and mortality. This study estimated the prevalence of modifiable risk factors in Indonesia and its co-occurence of multiple risk factors stratified by prior CVDs diagnosis status and sex. METHODS: Adult participants (> 15 years, N = 36,329, 57% women) with median age of 40 years were selected from a nationwide Indonesian cross-sectional study called Basic Health Research or Riset Kesehatan Dasar (Riskesdas) conducted in 2018. Thirteen risk factors were identified from the study, including smoking, a high-risk diet, inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption, a low physical activity level, the presence of mental-emotional disorders, obesity, a high waist circumference (WC), a high waist-to-height ratio (WtHR), hypertension, diabetes, a high total cholesterol level, a high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level, and a low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level. Age-adjusted prevalence ratios stratified by CVDs status and sex were calculated using Poisson regression with the robust covariance estimator. RESULTS: CVDs were found in 3% of the study population. Risk factor prevalence in the overall population ranged from 5.7 to 96.5% for diabetes and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption respectively. Smoking, a high-risk food diet, and a low HDL cholesterol level were more prevalent in men, whereas a low physical activity level, the presence of mental-emotional disorders, obesity, a high WC, a high WtHR, hypertension, diabetes, a high total cholesterol level, and a high LDL cholesterol level were more prevalent in women. Approximately 22% of men and 18% of women had at least 4 risk factors, and these proportions were higher in participants with prior CVDs diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high prevalence of modifiable risk factors in the Indonesian adult population. Sex, age, and the presence of CVD are major determinants of the variations in risk factors. The presence of multiple risk factors, which are often inter-related, requires a comprehensive approach through health promotion, lifestyle modification and patient education.