Applicability of machine learning algorithm to predict the therapeutic intervention success in Brazilian smokers.

Smoking cessation is an important public health policy worldwide. However, as far as we know, there is a lack of screening of variables related to the success of therapeutic intervention (STI) in Brazilian smokers by machine learning (ML) algorithms. To address this gap in the literature, we evaluated the ability of eight ML algorithms to correctly predict the STI in Brazilian smokers who were treated at a smoking cessation program in Brazil between 2006 and 2017. The dataset was composed of 12 variables and the efficacies of the algorithms were measured by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We plotted a decision tree flowchart and also measured the odds ratio (OR) between each independent variable and the outcome, and the importance of the variable for the best model based on PPV. The mean global values for the metrics described above were, respectively, 0.675±0.028, 0.803±0.078, 0.485±0.146, 0.705±0.035 and 0.680±0.033. Supporting vector machines performed the best algorithm with a PPV of 0.726±0.031. Smoking cessation drug use was the roof of decision tree with OR of 4.42 and importance of variable of 100.00. Increase in the number of relapses also promoted a positive outcome, while higher consumption of cigarettes resulted in the opposite. In summary, the best model predicted 72.6% of positive outcomes correctly. Smoking cessation drug use and higher number of relapses contributed to quit smoking, while higher consumption of cigarettes showed the opposite effect. There are important strategies to reduce the number of smokers and increase STI by increasing services and drug treatment for smokers.

Resilience, mental health, sleep, and smoking mediate pathways between lifetime stressors and Multiple Sclerosis severity.

Intro: Lifetime stressors (e.g., poverty, violence, discrimination) have been linked to Multiple Sclerosis (MS) features; yet mechanistic pathways and relationships with cumulative disease severity remain nebulous. Further, protective factors like resilience, that may attenuate the effects of stressors on outcomes, are seldom evaluated. Aim: To deconstruct pathways between lifetime stressors and cumulative severity on MS outcomes, accounting for resilience. Methods: Adults with MS (N=924) participated in an online survey through the National MS Society listserv. Structural Equation Modeling was used to examine the direct and indirect effect of lifetime stressors (count/severity) on MS severity (self-reported disability, relapse burden, fatigue, pain intensity and interference), via resilience, mental health (anxiety and depression), sleep disturbance, and smoking. Results: The final analytic model had excellent fit (GFI=0.998). Lifetime stressors had a direct relationship with MS severity (ß=0.27, p<.001). Resilience, mental health, sleep disturbance, and smoking significantly mediated the relationship between lifetime stressors and MS severity. The total effect of mediation was significant (ß=0.45). Conclusions: This work provides foundational evidence to inform conceptualization of pathways by which stress could influence MS disease burden. Resilience may attenuate effects of stressors, while poor mental health, smoking, and sleep disturbances may exacerbate their impact. Parallel with usual care, these mediators could be targets for early multimodal therapies to improve disease course.

Hospitalização de idosos por COVID-19 no Paraná: uma análise de fatores associados / Hospitalización de personas mayores por COVID-19 en Paraná: un análisis de factores asociados / Hospitalization of elderly people due to COVID-19 in the State of Paraná, Brazil: analysis of associated factors

Resumo Objetivo Analisar a prevalência e os fatores associados à hospitalização de idosos com COVID-19 no estado do Paraná, PR, Brasil. Métodos Estudo transversal vinculado à coorte "Acompanhamento Longitudinal de adultos e idosos que receberam alta da internação hospitalar por COVID-19", realizado por meio de informações contidas nas fichas de notificação compulsória do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. As análises foram realizadas através de frequências relativas e absolutas, com aplicação do teste de qui-quadrado adotado no modelo de regressão logística. A população do estudo englobou pessoas residentes no Estado do Paraná com idade de 60 anos ou mais, hospitalizadas por COVID-19 no período de março de 2020 a setembro de 2021. Resultados Foi identificada maior prevalência de hospitalização entre idosos com escolaridade igual ou maior a oito anos. Indivíduos não vacinados contra COVID-19 apresentaram maior chance de internação. O sexo masculino apresentou mais chance de admissão em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva em comparação com o sexo feminino. Doenças cardiovasculares, pneumopatia e obesidade aumentaram a prevalência da forma grave da doença. Conclusão Fatores tais como escolaridade e não adesão à vacinação contra COVID-19 podem aumentar o risco de hospitalização pela doença. Pessoas idosas do sexo masculino apresentam maior chance de hospitalização na UTI se comparadas às do sexo feminino; além disso, a não utilização de antivirais pode contribuir para o agravamento do estado de saúde.

Resumen Objetivo Analizar la prevalencia y los factores asociados a la hospitalización de personas mayores por COVID-19 en el estado de Paraná. Métodos Estudio transversal vinculado a la cohorte "Seguimiento longitudinal de adultos y personas mayores que recibieron alta de internación hospitalaria por COVID-19", realizado mediante información contenida en las fichas de notificación obligatoria del Sistema de Información de Agravios de Notificación. Los análisis fueron realizados a través de frecuencias relativas y absolutas, con aplicación de la prueba ji cuadrado adoptada en el modelo de regresión logística. La población del estudio incluyó personas residentes del estado de Paraná, de 60 años o más, hospitalizadas por COVID-19 en el período de marzo de 2020 a septiembre de 2021. Resultados Se identificó mayor prevalencia de hospitalización en personas mayores con escolaridad igual o mayor a ocho años. Individuos no vacunados contra COVID-19 presentaron mayor probabilidad de internación. El sexo masculino presentó más probabilidad de admisión en Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos en comparación con el sexo femenino. Enfermedades cardiovasculares, neumopatía y obesidad aumentaron la prevalencia de la forma grave de la enfermedad. Conclusión Factores tales como escolaridad y no adhesión a la vacunación contra COVID-19 pueden aumentar el riesgo de hospitalización por la enfermedad. Personas mayores de sexo masculino presentaron mayor probabilidad de hospitalización en la UCI al compararlas con las de sexo femenino. Además, la no utilización de antivirales puede contribuir al agravamiento del estado de salud.

Abstract Objective To analyze the prevalence and factors associated with hospitalization of elderly people with COVID-19 in the State of Paraná, PR, Brazil. Methods A cross-sectional study linked to the cohort "Longitudinal Monitoring of adults and elderly people who were discharged from hospital admission due to COVID-19", was carried out using information contained in the compulsory notification forms of the Notifiable Diseases Information System. Analyzes were carried out using relative and absolute frequencies, applying the chi-square test adopted in the logistic regression model. The study population included people aged 60 years or over and residing in the State of Paraná, who were hospitalized for COVID-19 from March 2020 to September 2021. Results A higher hospitalization prevalence was identified among elderly people with eight years of education or more. Individuals not vaccinated against COVID-19 had a greater chance of hospitalization. Males had a greater chance of admission to the Intensive Care Unit compared to females. Cardiovascular diseases, lung disease, and obesity have increased the prevalence of the severe form of the disease. Conclusion Factors such as education and non-adherence to vaccination against COVID-19 can increase the risk of hospitalization due to the disease. Elderly people of the male sex have a greater chance of hospitalization in the ICU compared to the female sex. Furthermore, not using antivirals can contribute to worsening health status.

The Brazilian National Oral Health Policy and oral cancer mortality trends: An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

OBJECTIVE: This study analyzes the effect of the Brazilian National Oral Health Policy (NOHP) on oral cancer mortality rates (OCMR). METHOD: This is an ecological study with secondary oral cancer death data, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Annual death data were collected from the Mortality Information System (1996-2019). The outcome was the OCMR, standardized by gender and age We considered the NOHP, categorized as "0" (before its implementation), from 1996 to 2004, and "1 to 15", from 2005 to 2019. ARIMA modeling was carried out for temporal analysis, and regression coefficient estimation (RC). RESULTS: The Brazilian NOHP implementation was associated with an increase in OCMR in the North region (CR = 0.16; p = 0.022) and with a decrease in the Southeast region (CR = -0.04; p<0.001), but did not affect the other macro-regions nor Brazil. The forecast models estimated an increase in OCMR for the North, and Northeast, a decrease for the Southeast, and stability for the South and Brazil. CONCLUSION: The Brazilian NOHP is not being effective in reducing the OCMR. The trends behaved differently in the Brazilian territory, highlighting health inequities. We recommend that the NOHP strengthen the oral health care network, incorporating oral cancer as a notifiable disease, adopting strategies for prevention, screening, and providing opportunities for early treatment of the disease.

Associations of hospitalisation - admission, readmission and length to stay - with multimorbidity patterns by age and sex in adults and older adults: the ELSI-Brazil study.

BACKGROUND: Although the association between multimorbidity (MM) and hospitalisation is known, the different effects of MM patterns by age and sex in this outcome needs to be elucidated. Our study aimed to analyse the association of hospitalisations' variables (occurrence, readmission, length of stay) and patterns of multimorbidity (MM) according to sex and age. METHODS: Data from 8.807 participants aged ≥ 50 years sourced from the baseline of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSI-Brazil) were analysed. Multimorbidity was defined as ≥ 2 (MM2) and ≥ 3 (MM3) chronic conditions. Poisson regression was used to verify the association between the independent variables and hospitalisation according to sex and age group. Multiple linear regression models were constructed for the outcomes of readmission and length of stay. Ising models were used to estimate the networks of diseases and MM patterns. RESULTS: Regarding the risk of hospitalisation among those with MM2, we observed a positive association with male sex, age ≥ 75 years and women aged ≥ 75 years. For MM3, there was a positive association with hospitalisation among males. For the outcomes hospital readmission and length of stay, we observed a positive association with male sex and women aged ≥ 75 years. Network analysis identified two groups that are more strongly associated with occurrence of hospitalisation: the cardiovascular-cancer-glaucoma-cataract group stratified by sex and the neurodegenerative diseases-renal failure-haemorrhagic stroke group stratified by age group. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the association between hospitalisation, readmission, length of stay, and MM changes when sex and age group are considered. Differences were identified in the MM patterns associated with hospitalisation according to sex and age group.

Exploring regional disparities in lung cancer mortality in a Brazilian state: A cross-sectional ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer (LC) is one of the main causes of mortality in Brazil; geographic, cultural, socioeconomic and health access factors can affect the development of the disease. We explored the geospatial distribution of LC mortality, and associated factors, between 2015 and 2019, in Parana state, Brazil. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained mortality (from the Brazilian Health Informatics Department) and population rates (from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics [IBGE]) in people over 40 years old, accessibility of oncology centers by municipality, disease diagnosis rate (from Brazilian Ministry of Health), the tobacco production rate (IBGE) and Parana Municipal Performance Index (IPDM) (from Parana Institute for Economic and Social Development). Global Moran's Index and Local Indicators of Spatial Association were performed to evaluate the spatial distribution of LC mortality in Parana state. Ordinary Least Squares Regression and Geographically Weighted Regression were used to verify spatial association between LC mortality and socioeconomic indicators and health service coverage. A strong spatial autocorrelation of LC mortality was observed, with the detection of a large cluster of high LC mortality in the South of Parana state. Spatial regression analysis showed that all independent variables analyzed were directly related to LC mortality by municipality in Paraná. CONCLUSIONS: There is a disparity in the LC mortality in Parana state, and inequality of socioeconomic and accessibility to health care services could be associated with it. Our findings may help health managers to intensify actions in regions with vulnerability in the detection and treatment of LC.

Validation of the Pediatric Resuscitation and Trauma Outcome (PRESTO) model in injury patients in Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest rate of unintentional paediatric injury deaths. The Pediatric Resuscitation and Trauma Outcome (PRESTO) model predicts mortality using patient variables available in low-resource settings: age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), oxygen saturation, need for supplemental oxygen (SO) and neurologic status (Alert Verbal Painful Unresponsive (AVPU)). We sought to validate and assess the prognostic performance of PRESTO for paediatric injury patients at a tertiary referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study from a prospective trauma registry from November 2020 to April 2022. We performed exploratory analysis of sociodemographic variables and developed a logistic regression model to predict mortality using R (V.4.1). The logistic regression model was evaluated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). RESULTS: 499 patients were enrolled with a median age of 7 years (IQR 3.41-11.18). 65% were boys, and in-hospital mortality was 7.1%. Most were classified as alert on AVPU Scale (n=326, 86%) and had normal SBP (n=351, 98%). Median HR was 107 (IQR 88.5-124). The logistic regression model based on the original PRESTO model revealed that AVPU, HR and SO were statistically significant to predict in-hospital mortality. The model fit to our population revealed AUC=0.81, sensitivity=0.71 and specificity=0.79. CONCLUSION: This is the first validation of a model to predict mortality for paediatric injury patients in Tanzania. Despite the low number of participants, our results show good predictive potential. Further research with a larger injury population should be done to improve the model for our population, such as through calibration.

KeyLoop retractor for global gasless laparoscopy: evaluation of safety and feasibility in a porcine model.

BACKGROUND: Many surgeons in low- and middle-income countries have described performing surgery using gasless (lift) laparoscopy due to inaccessibility of carbon dioxide and reliable electricity, but the safety and feasibility of the technique has not been well documented. We describe preclinical testing of the in vivo safety and utility of KeyLoop, a laparoscopic retractor system to enable gasless laparoscopy. METHODS: Experienced laparoscopic surgeons completed a series of four laparoscopic tasks in a porcine model: laparoscopic exposure, small bowel resection, intracorporeal suturing with knot tying, and cholecystectomy. For each participating surgeon, the four tasks were completed in a practice animal using KeyLoop. Surgeons then completed these tasks using standard-of-care (SOC) gas laparoscopy and KeyLoop in block randomized order to minimize learning curve effect. Vital signs, task completion time, blood loss and surgical complications were compared between SOC and KeyLoop using paired nonparametric tests. Surgeons completed a survey on use of KeyLoop compared to gas laparoscopy. Abdominal wall tissue was evaluated for injury by a blinded pathologist. RESULTS: Five surgeons performed 60 tasks in 15 pigs. There were no significant differences in times to complete the tasks between KeyLoop and SOC. For all tasks, there was a learning curve with task completion times related to learning the porcine model. There were no significant differences in blood loss, vital signs or surgical complications between KeyLoop and SOC. Eleven surgeons from the United States and Singapore felt that KeyLoop could be used to safely perform several common surgical procedures. No abdominal wall tissue injury was observed for either KeyLoop or SOC. CONCLUSIONS: Procedure times, blood loss, abdominal wall tissue injury and surgical complications were similar between KeyLoop and SOC gas laparoscopy for basic surgical procedures. This data supports KeyLoop as a useful tool to increase access to laparoscopy in low- and middle-income countries.

Prevalence and factors associated with the death of older people hospitalized due to Covid-19 in the state of Paraná / Prevalencia y factores asociados a la muerte de personas mayores hospitalizadas por Covid-19 en el estado de Paraná / Prevalência e fatores associados ao óbito de idosos hospitalizados por Covid-19 no estado do Paraná

ABSTRACT Objective: To estimate the prevalence and to analyze the factors associated with the death of older people hospitalized due to Covid-19 in the state of Paraná. Method: Cross-sectional study conducted with secondary data from older people with a positive diagnosis of Covid-19 living in the State of Paraná, collected from March 1, 2020 to August 31, 2021. Prevalence ratios were obtained by adjusting the regression model. Results: A total of 16,153 deaths of older people hospitalized in the State of Paraná were analyzed. The adjusted model revealed an association between death and some factors such as: belonging to the age group of 75 to 84 years (PR = 1.28; CI95% = 1.24-1.32) and 85 years or over (PR = 1.52; CI95% = 1.45-1.59); male (PR = 1.17; CI95% = 1.13-1.21); obesity (PR = 1.23; CI95% = 1.16-1.29); other morbidities (PR = 1.25; CI95% = 1.20-1.30); and having used ventilatory support (PR = 2.60; CI95% = 2.33-2.86). Older people vaccinated against influenza had a probability of death reduced by 11% (PR = 0.89; CI95% = 0.86-0.93). Conclusion: The association of age, sex, and diagnosis of previous comorbidities with unfavorable outcomes from Covid-19 was identified. Having received the flu vaccine provided protection to elderly people who contracted SARS-CoV-2.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Prevalencia y factores asociados a la muerte de personas mayores hospitalizadas por Covid-19 en el estado de Paraná* Método: Estudio transversal realizado con datos secundarios de personas mayores con diagnóstico positivo de Covid-19 residentes en el Estado de Paraná, recolectados del 1 de marzo de 2020 al 31 de agosto de 2021. Las razones de prevalencia se obtuvieron ajustando el modelo de regresión. Resultados: Se analizaron 16.153 muertes de personas mayores hospitalizadas en el Estado de Paraná. El modelo ajustado reveló asociación entre la muerte y algunos factores como: pertenecer al grupo etario de 75 a 84 años (RP = 1,28; IC95% = 1,24-1,32) y 85 años o más (RP = 1,52; IC95% = 1,45-1,59); masculino (RP = 1,17; IC95% = 1,13-1,21); obesidad (RP = 1,23; IC95% = 1,16-1,29); otras morbilidades (RP = 1,25; IC95% = 1,20-1,30); y haber utilizado soporte ventilatorio (RP = 2,60; IC95% = 2,33-2,86). Las personas mayores vacunadas contra la influenza tuvieron una probabilidad de muerte reducida en un 11% (RP = 0,89; IC95% = 0,86-0,93). Conclusión: Se identificó la asociación de la edad, el sexo y el diagnóstico de comorbilidades previas con resultados desfavorables por Covid-19. Haber recibido la vacuna contra la gripe brindó protección a las personas mayores que contrajeron el SARS-CoV-2.

RESUMO Objetivo: Estimar a prevalência e analisar os fatores associados ao óbito de idosos hospitalizados por Covid-19 no Estado do Paraná. Método: Estudo transversal conduzido com dados secundários de idosos com diagnóstico positivo de Covid-19 residentes no Estado do Paraná, coletados no período de 01 de março de 2020 a 31 de agosto de 2021. As razões de prevalências foram obtidas por meio do ajuste de modelo de regressão. Resultados: Foram analisados 16.153 óbitos de idosos hospitalizados no Estado do Paraná. O modelo ajustado revelou associação do óbito a alguns fatores como: pertencer a faixa etária dos 75 a 84 anos (RP = 1,28; IC95% = 1,24-1,32) e 85 anos ou mais (RP = 1,52; IC95% = 1,45-1,59); sexo masculino (RP = 1,17; IC95% = 1,13-1,21); obesidade (RP = 1,23; IC95% = 1,16-1,29); outras morbidades (RP = 1,25; IC95% = 1,20-1,30); e ter utilizado suporte ventilatório (RP = 2,60; IC95% = 2,33-2,86). Idosos vacinados contra a gripe tiveram probabilidade de morte reduzida em 11% (RP = 0,89; IC95% = 0,86-0,93). Conclusão: Identificou-se a associação da idade, sexo e diagnóstico de comorbidades prévias aos desfechos desfavoráveis da Covid-19. Ter recebido o imunizante contra a gripe conferiu proteção aos idosos que contraíram o SARS-CoV-2.

Effectiveness of mobile applications as intervention tools in suicidal ideation: a systematic review and meta-analysis / Eficácia dos aplicativos móveis como ferramentas de intervenção na ideação suicida: uma revisão sistemática e meta-análise

Objective Evaluate the effectiveness of mobile applications developed for intervention in suicide risk in adults. Method Searches for articles were carried out in four databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and PsychINFO). For the meta-analyses, we used fixed effect modelling to assess the primary outcome. The PROSPERO register is CRD42020163876. Results After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, six studies remained in the systematic review, of which four were eligible to the meta-analysis. There was no difference, or a little tendency in favor of control condition (usual treatment) comparing with applications. Conclusion Applications can be as effective as standard treatments in reducing suicide ideation. The results should be interpreted with caution once all studies presented at least one bias in their study design.

Objetivo Avaliar a eficácia dos aplicativos desenvolvidos para intervenção no risco de suicídio em adultos. Método As buscas por artigos foram realizadas em quatro bancos de dados (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus e PsychINFO). Para a meta-análise, utilizamos modelagem de efeito fixo para avaliar o desfecho primário. O registro no PROSPERO é CRD42020163876. Resultados Após aplicação dos critérios de inclusão e exclusão, seis estudos permaneceram na revisão sistemática, dos quais quatro foram elegíveis para a meta-análise. Não houve diferença, ou uma pequena tendência a favor da condição de controle (tratamento usual) em comparação com aplicativos. Conclusão Os aplicativos parecem ser tão eficazes quanto os tratamentos padrões na redução de ideação suicida. Os resultados devem ser interpretados com cautela, pois todos os estudos apresentaram viés em seu desenho.

Psychometric Properties of the Brazilian Version of the Multidimensional Sportspersonship Orientations Scale (MSOS) / Propriedades Psicométricas da Versão Brasileira da Escala Multidimensional de Orientação Esportiva (MSOS)

Abstract This study investigated the psychometric properties of the Brazilian version of the Multidimensional Sportspersonship Orientations Scale (MSOS). The cross-cultural adaptation committee was composed of three experts. Our validation sample consisted of 643 athletes from individual and team sports. The results showed clear and relevant content validation and satisfactory internal consistency of the items in the Portuguese version. EFA suggested the exclusion of nine items and the retention of four factors. The CFA analysis with 16 items showed satisfactory adjustment of the model [X²/df = 2.70; CFI = 0.928; TLI = 0.911, RMSEA = 0.05]. The 16-item scale had adequate reliability (> 0.70). It was concluded that the Brazilian version of MSOS showed acceptable psychometric properties.

Resumo Este estudo investigou as propriedades psicométricas da versão brasileira da Escala Multidimensional de Orientação Esportiva (MSOS). O instrumento foi traduzido e adaptado por três especialistas da área. A amostra de validação foi composta por 643 atletas de modalidades coletivas e individuais. Os resultados demonstraram traduções claras e pertinentes entre os três especialistas, e consistência interna satisfatória dos itens em português. A AFE sugeriu a exclusão de nove itens e a retenção de quatro fatores. O modelo da AFC com 16 itens apresentou índices de ajustamento satisfatórios [X²/gl = 2,70; CFI = 0,928; TLI = 0,911, RMSEA = 0,05]. A escala com 16 itens apresentou adequada confiabilidade (CC > 0,70). Concluiu-se que a versão brasileira da MSOS apresentou propriedades psicométricas aceitáveis.

Emergency department use and Artificial Intelligence in Pelotas: design and baseline results / Uso serviços de serviços de urgência e emergência e Inteligência Artificial em Pelotas: protocolo e resultados iniciais

RESUMO Objetivo: To describe the initial baseline results of a population-based study, as well as a protocol in order to evaluate the performance of different machine learning algorithms with the objective of predicting the demand for urgent and emergency services in a representative sample of adults from the urban area of Pelotas, Southern Brazil. Methods: The study is entitled "Emergency department use and Artificial Intelligence in PELOTAS (RS) (EAI PELOTAS)" (https://wp.ufpel.edu.br/eaipelotas/). Between September and December 2021, a baseline was carried out with participants. A follow-up was planned to be conducted after 12 months in order to assess the use of urgent and emergency services in the last year. Afterwards, machine learning algorithms will be tested to predict the use of urgent and emergency services over one year. Results: In total, 5,722 participants answered the survey, mostly females (66.8%), with an average age of 50.3 years. The mean number of household people was 2.6. Most of the sample has white skin color and incomplete elementary school or less. Around 30% of the sample has obesity, 14% diabetes, and 39% hypertension. Conclusion: The present paper presented a protocol describing the steps that were and will be taken to produce a model capable of predicting the demand for urgent and emergency services in one year among residents of Pelotas, in Rio Grande do Sul state.

RESUMO Objetivo: Descrever os resultados iniciais da linha de base de um estudo de base populacional, bem como um protocolo para avaliar o desempenho de diferentes algoritmos de aprendizado de máquina, com o objetivo de predizer a demanda de serviços de urgência e emergência em uma amostra representativa de adultos da zona urbana de Pelotas, no Sul do Brasil. Métodos: O estudo intitula-se "Emergency department use and Artificial Intelligence in PELOTAS (RS) (EAI PELOTAS)" (https://wp.ufpel.edu.br/eaipelotas/). Entre setembro e dezembro de 2021, foi realizada uma linha de base com os participantes. Está previsto um acompanhamento após 12 meses para avaliar a utilização de serviços de urgência e emergência no último ano. Em seguida, serão testados algoritmos de machine learning para predizer a utilização de serviços de urgência e emergência no período de um ano. Resultados: No total, 5.722 participantes responderam à pesquisa, a maioria do sexo feminino (66,8%), com idade média de 50,3 anos. O número médio de pessoas no domicílio foi de 2,6. A maioria da amostra tem cor da pele branca e ensino fundamental incompleto ou menos. Cerca de 30% da amostra estava com obesidade, 14% com diabetes e 39% eram hipertensos. Conclusão: O presente trabalho apresentou um protocolo descrevendo as etapas que foram e serão tomadas para a produção de um modelo capaz de prever a demanda por serviços de urgência e emergência em um ano entre moradores de Pelotas, no estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Bolsa Família Program and deaths from oral cancer in Brazil: an ecological study.

Objective: To assess the effect of coverage of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) on oral cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 2005 and 2017, adjusting for health care coverage and socioeconomic characteristics of the Brazilian federative units. Methods: This is an ecological study using annual data (2005-2017) from all the Brazilian federative units. The dependent variable for this study was the oral cancer mortality rate, standardized by gender and age using the direct standardization technique. BFP coverage was the main independent variable, calculated as the ratio of the number of BFP beneficiaries to those families that should potentially be entitled to this conditional cash transfer. Socioeconomic background and health care coverage were covariables. Choropleth maps were drawn, and space-time cube analysis was used to assess changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of BFP and oral cancer mortality rates. Mixed-effects linear regression analysis estimated the coefficients (ß) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between BFP coverage and oral cancer mortality rates. Results: BFP coverage trends increased and oral cancer mortality rate trends stabilized in Brazilian federative units, except for Maranhão, Goiás, and Minas Gerais, where the oral cancer mortality rates have increased. In the adjusted model, greater BFP coverage was associated with lower oral cancer mortality rates (ß -2.10; 95% CI [-3.291, -0.919]). Conclusions: Egalitarian strategies such as BFP can reduce the oral cancer mortality rate. We recommend the follow-up of families benefiting from conditional cash transfer program by oral health teams to reduce the oral cancer mortality rate.

The epidemiology of pediatric traumatic brain injury presenting at a referral center in Moshi, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Over 95% of childhood injury deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) have twice the likelihood of dying in LMICs than in high-income countries (HICs). In Africa, TBI estimates are projected to increase to upwards of 14 million new cases in 2050; however, these estimates are based on sparse data, which underscores the need for robust injury surveillance systems. We aim to describe the clinical factors associated with morbidity and mortality in pediatric TBI at the Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre (KCMC) in Moshi, Tanzania to guide future prevention efforts. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a TBI registry of all pediatric (0-18 years of age) TBI patients presenting to the KCMC emergency department (ED) between May 2013 and April 2014. The variables included demographics, acute treatment and diagnostics, Glasgow Coma Scores (GCSs, severe 3-8, moderate 9-13, and mild 14-15), morbidity at discharge as measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS, worse functional status 1-3, better functional status 4-6), and mortality status at discharge. The analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariable analysis and multivariable logistic regression to report the predictors of mortality and morbidity. The variables used in the multivariable logistic regression were selected according to their clinical validity in predicting outcomes. RESULTS: Of the total 419 pediatric TBI patients, 286 (69.3%) were male with an average age of 10.12 years (SD = 5.7). Road traffic injury (RTI) accounted for most TBIs (269, 64.4%), followed by falls (82, 19.62%). Of the 23 patients (5.58%) who had alcohol-involved injuries, most were male (3.6:1). Severe TBI occurred in 54 (13.0%) patients. In total, 90 (24.9%) patients underwent TBI surgery. Of the 21 (5.8%) patients who died, 11 (55.0%) had severe TBI, 6 (30.0%) had moderate TBI (GCS 9-13) and 3 (15.0%) presented with mild TBI (GCS>13). The variables most strongly associated with worse functional status included having severe TBI (OR = 9.45) and waiting on the surgery floor before being moved to the intensive care unit (ICU) (OR = 14.37). CONCLUSIONS: Most pediatric TBI patients were males who suffered RTIs or falls. Even among children under 18 years of age, alcohol was consumed by at least 5% of patients who suffered injuries, and more commonly among boys. Patients becoming unstable and having to be transferred from the surgery floor to the ICU could reflect poor risk identification in the ED or progression of injury severity. The next steps include designing interventions to reduce RTI, mitigate irresponsible alcohol use, and improve risk identification and stratification in the ED.

Predictors of ICU admission and patient outcome for traumatic brain injury in a Tanzanian referral hospital: Implications for improving treatment guidelines.

Traumatic brain injuries (TBI) are a critical global health challenge, with disproportionate negative impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). People who suffer severe TBI in LMICs are twice as likely to die than those in high-income countries, and survivors experience substantially poorer outcomes. In the hospital, patients with severe TBI are typically seen in intensive care units (ICU) to receive advanced monitoring and lifesaving treatment. However, the quality and outcomes of ICU care in LMICs are often unclear. We analyzed secondary data from a cohort of 605 adult patients who presented to the Emergency Department (ED) of a Tanzanian hospital with a moderate or severe TBI. We examined patient characteristics and performed two binary logistic regression models to assess predictors of ICU admission and patient outcome. Patients were often young (median age = 32, SD = 15), overwhelmingly male (88.9%), and experienced long delays from time of injury to presentation in the ED (median=12 h, SD = 168). A majority of patients (87.8%) underwent surgery and 55.6% ultimately had a "good recovery" with minimal disability, while 34.0% died. Patients were more likely to be seen in the ICU if they had worse baseline symptoms and were over age 60. TBI surgery conveyed a 37% risk reduction for poor TBI outcome. However, ICU patients had a 3.91 times higher risk of poor TBI outcome as compared to those not seen in the ICU, despite controlling for baseline symptoms. The findings point to the need for targeted interventions among young men, improvements in pre-hospital transportation and care, and continued efforts to increase the quality of surgical and ICU care in this setting. It is unlikely that poorer outcome among ICU patients was indicative of poorer care in the ICU; this finding was more likely due to lack of data on several factors that inform care decisions (e.g., comorbid conditions or injuries). Nevertheless, future efforts should seek to increase the capacity of ICUs in low-resource settings to monitor and treat TBI according to international guidelines, and should improve predictive modeling to identify risk for poor outcome.

Spatial correlation of covid-19 with intensive care unit beds in Paraná / Correlação espacial da covid-19 com leitos de unidades de terapia intensiva no Paraná

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial correlation between confirmed cases of covid-19 and the intensive care unit beds exclusive to the disease in municipalities of Paraná. METHODS This is an epidemiological study of ecological type which used data from the Epidemiological Report provided by the Department of Health of Paraná on the confirmed cases of covid-19 from March 12, 2020, to January 18, 2021. The number of intensive care beds exclusive to covid-19 in each municipality of Paraná was obtained by the Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde (CNES - National Registry of Health Establishments), provided online by the Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde (Datasus - Informatics Department of the Brazilian Unified Health System). The Bivariate Moran's Index (local and global) was used to analyze the intensive care bed variable and spatial correlation, with a 5% significance level. LISA Map was used to identify critical and transition areas. RESULTS In the analyzed period, we found 499,777 confirmed cases of covid-19 and 1,029 intensive care beds exclusive to the disease in Paraná. We identified a positive spatial autocorrelation between the confirmed cases of covid-19 (0.404-p ≤ 0.001) and intensive care beds exclusive to the disease (0.085-p ≤ 0.001) and disparities between the regions of Paraná. CONCLUSION Spatial analysis indicated that confirmed cases of covid-19 are related to the distribution of intensive care beds exclusive to the disease in Paraná, allowing us to find priority areas of care in the state regarding the dissemination and control of the disease.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Analisar a correlação espacial entre os casos confirmados de covid-19 com os leitos de unidades de terapia intensiva exclusivos para a doença nos municípios do Paraná. MÉTODO Trata-se de um estudo epidemiológico, do tipo ecológico que utilizou dados do Informe Epidemiológico fornecido pela Secretaria de Estado da Saúde do Paraná sobre os casos confirmados de covid-19, no período de 12 de março de 2020 a 18 de janeiro de 2021. A quantidade de leitos de terapia intensiva exclusivos para covid-19 de cada município paranaense foi obtida pelo Cadastro Nacional de Estabelecimentos de Saúde disponibilizado online pelo Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. A variável leito de terapia intensiva foi analisada pelo Índice Bivariado de Moran (local e global). Para a identificação de áreas críticas e de transição utilizou-se o LISA Map. Para avaliar a correlação espacial foi utilizado o Índice Bivariado de Moran, considerando o nível de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS No período analisado foram confirmados 499.777 casos de covid-19 no Paraná e identificados 1.029 leitos de terapia intensiva exclusivos para a doença entre os municípios do estado. Foi identificado autocorrelação espacial positiva entre os casos confirmados de covid-19 (0,404-p ≤ 0,001) com os leitos de terapia intensiva exclusivos para a doença (0,085-p ≤ 0,001) e disparidades entre as regiões do Paraná. CONCLUSÃO A análise espacial permitiu confirmar a relação entre os casos confirmados de covid-19 e a distribuição de leitos de terapia intensiva exclusivos para a doença no Paraná e possibilitou identificar áreas prioritárias de atenção no estado, relacionadas à disseminação e controle da doença.

Bolsa Família Program and deaths from oral cancer in Brazil: an ecological study / Programa Bolsa Família y muertes por cáncer de la cavidad bucal en Brasil: estudio ecológico / Programa Bolsa Família e mortes por câncer bucal no Brasil: um estudo ecológico

ABSTRACT Objective. To assess the effect of coverage of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) on oral cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 2005 and 2017, adjusting for health care coverage and socioeconomic characteristics of the Brazilian federative units. Methods. This is an ecological study using annual data (2005-2017) from all the Brazilian federative units. The dependent variable for this study was the oral cancer mortality rate, standardized by gender and age using the direct standardization technique. BFP coverage was the main independent variable, calculated as the ratio of the number of BFP beneficiaries to those families that should potentially be entitled to this conditional cash transfer. Socioeconomic background and health care coverage were covariables. Choropleth maps were drawn, and space-time cube analysis was used to assess changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of BFP and oral cancer mortality rates. Mixed-effects linear regression analysis estimated the coefficients (β) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between BFP coverage and oral cancer mortality rates. Results. BFP coverage trends increased and oral cancer mortality rate trends stabilized in Brazilian federative units, except for Maranhão, Goiás, and Minas Gerais, where the oral cancer mortality rates have increased. In the adjusted model, greater BFP coverage was associated with lower oral cancer mortality rates (β -2.10; 95% CI [-3.291, -0.919]). Conclusions. Egalitarian strategies such as BFP can reduce the oral cancer mortality rate. We recommend the follow-up of families benefiting from conditional cash transfer program by oral health teams to reduce the oral cancer mortality rate.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar el efecto de la cobertura del Programa Bolsa Família (BFP) en las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal en Brasil entre el 2005 y el 2017, ajustadas por cobertura de atención de salud y características socioeconómicas de las unidades federativas brasileñas. Métodos. Este es un estudio ecológico con datos anuales (2005-2017) de todas las unidades federativas brasileñas. La variable dependiente de este estudio fue la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal, estandarizada por sexo y edad mediante la técnica de estandarización directa. La cobertura del BFP fue la principal variable independiente, calculada como la relación entre el número de beneficiarios del BFP y las familias que podrían tener el derecho a recibir esta transferencia monetaria condicionada. Los antecedentes socioeconómicos y la cobertura de atención de salud fueron covariables. Se trazaron mapas coropléticos y se realizó un análisis con cubos espaciotemporales para evaluar los cambios en la distribución espaciotemporal del BFP y las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal. El análisis de regresión lineal de efectos mixtos calculó los coeficientes (β) y los intervalos de confianza (IC) del 95% para la relación entre la cobertura del BFP y las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal. Resultados. Las tendencias de cobertura del BFP aumentaron y las tendencias de la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal se estabilizaron en las unidades federativas brasileñas, excepto en Maranhão, Goiás y Minas Gerais, donde estas tasas aumentaron. En el modelo ajustado, una mayor cobertura del BFP se asoció con tasas más bajas de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal (β -2,10; IC del 95% [-3,291, -0,919]). Conclusiones. Las estrategias igualitarias como el BFP pueden reducir la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal. Recomendamos el seguimiento por parte de los equipos de salud bucodental de las familias que se benefician del programa de transferencias monetarias condicionadas para reducir la tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de la cavidad bucal.

RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar o efeito da cobertura do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) sobre as taxas de mortalidade por câncer bucal no Brasil entre 2005 e 2017, com ajuste para a cobertura de saúde e as características socioeconômicas das unidades federativas brasileiras. Métodos. Este é um estudo ecológico com base em dados anuais (2005-2017) de todas as unidades federativas brasileiras. A variável dependente foi a taxa de mortalidade por câncer bucal, padronizada por sexo e idade pela técnica de padronização direta. A cobertura do PBF foi a principal variável independente, calculada como a razão entre o número de beneficiários do PBF e de famílias que deveriam ter direito a essa transferência condicionada de renda. O contexto socioeconômico e a cobertura de saúde foram covariáveis. Elaboraram-se mapas coropléticos e usou-se a análise de cubo espaço-temporal para avaliar variações da distribuição espaço-temporal do PBF e das taxas de mortalidade por câncer bucal. A análise por regressão linear de efeitos mistos estimou os coeficientes (β) e intervalos de confiança (IC) de 95% da associação entre cobertura do PBF e taxas de mortalidade por câncer bucal. Resultados. Houve aumento da tendência de cobertura do PBF e estabilização da tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer bucal nas unidades federativas brasileiras, com exceção dos estados de Maranhão, Goiás e Minas Gerais, onde as taxas de mortalidade por câncer bucal aumentaram. No modelo ajustado, a maior cobertura do PBF foi associada a menores taxas de mortalidade por câncer bucal (β -2,10; IC 95% [-3,291, -0,919]). Conclusões. Estratégias igualitárias como o PBF podem reduzir a taxa de mortalidade por câncer bucal. Recomendamos o acompanhamento das famílias beneficiadas por programas de transferência condicionada de renda por equipes de saúde bucal para reduzir a taxa de mortalidade por esse câncer.

Revisão sistemática da literatura acerca da moral no contexto esportivo / Systematic review of the literature about moral in the sport context

Este estudo tem como objetivo investigar a orientação esportiva como fator de influência no desenvolvimento moral em atletas associado à sua busca de autonomia e emancipação. Trata-se de uma Revisão Sistemática da literatura sobre a moral no contexto esportivo, incluindo estudos de 1982 a 2015. Um total de 113 estudos foram avaliados e apresentados seguindo indicações de três seções: a) características metodológicas dos estudos; b) variáveis associadas à moral; e c) principais suportes teóricos. Esta pesquisa apresenta novos achados sobre as variáveis que se relacionam com a moral no contexto esportivo e a busca pela autonomia e emancipação ao longo de sua formação atlética. Com estes resultados, espera-se contribuir para o processo de formação de atletas no contexto brasileiro, sendo uma fonte de informação para profissionais da psicologia e demais áreas sobre como proceder para que o esporte seja um dos fatores que contribuem para o desenvolvimento humano desde o início de sua prática, seja na infância, adolescência ou em atletas profissionais.

This study aims to investigate sports orientation as a factor of influence in the moral development in athletes associated with their quest for autonomy and emancipation. This is a Systematic Review of the literature on morality in the sports context, including studies from 1982 to 2015. A total of 113 studies were evaluated and presented following indications of three sections: a) methodological characteristics of the studies; b) variables associated with morality; and c) main theoretical supports. This research presents new findings on the variables that are related to the moral in the sport context and the search for autonomy and emancipation throughout its athletic formation. With these results, it is hoped to contribute to the training process of athletes in the Brazilian context, being a source of information for professionals in psychology and other areas on how to make sport a factor contributing to human development from the beginning of their practice, whether in childhood, adolescence or in professional athletes.

An analysis of emergency care delays experienced by traumatic brain injury patients presenting to a regional referral hospital in a low-income country.

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), trauma patients have a higher risk of experiencing delays to care due to limited hospital resources and difficulties in reaching a health facility. Reducing delays to care is an effective method for improving trauma outcomes. However, few studies have investigated the variety of care delays experienced by trauma patients in LMICs. The objective of this study was to describe the prevalence of pre- and in-hospital delays to care, and their association with poor outcomes among trauma patients in a low-income setting. METHODS: We used a prospective traumatic brain injury (TBI) registry from Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Center in Moshi, Tanzania to model nine unique delays to care. Multiple regression was used to identify delays significantly associated with poor in-hospital outcomes. RESULTS: Our analysis included 3209 TBI patients. The most common delay from injury occurrence to hospital arrival was 1.1 to 4.0 hours (31.9%). Most patients were evaluated by a physician within 15.0 minutes of arrival (69.2%). Nearly all severely injured patients needed and did not receive a brain computed tomography scan (95.0%). A majority of severely injured patients needed and did not receive oxygen (80.8%). Predictors of a poor outcome included delays to lab tests, fluids, oxygen, and non-TBI surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Time to care data is informative, easy to collect, and available in any setting. Our time to care data revealed significant constraints to non-personnel related hospital resources. Severely injured patients with the greatest need for care lacked access to medical imaging, oxygen, and surgery. Insights from our study and future studies will help optimize resource allocation in low-income hospitals thereby reducing delays to care and improving trauma outcomes in LMICs.