Exploring the Factors that Drive Clinical Negligence Claims: Stated Preferences of Those Who Have Experienced Unintended Harm.

BACKGROUND: Better understanding of the factors that influence patients to make a financial claim for compensation is required to inform policy decisions. This study aimed to assess the relative importance of factors that influence those who have experienced a patient safety incident (PSI) to make a claim for compensation. METHOD: Participants completed an online discrete choice experiment (DCE) involving 10 single profile tasks where they chose whether or not to file a claim. DCE data were modelled using logistic, mixed logit and latent class regressions; scenario analyses, external validity, and willingness to accept were also conducted. RESULTS: A total of 1029 participants in the United Kingdom responded to the survey. An appropriate apology and a satisfactory investigation reduced the likelihood of claiming. Respondents were more likely to claim if they could hold those responsible accountable, if the process was simple and straightforward, if the compensation amount was higher, if the likelihood of compensation was high or uncertain, if the time to receive a decision was quicker, and if they used the government compensation scheme. Men are more likely to claim for low impact PSIs. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The actions taken by the health service after a PSI, and people's perceptions about the probability of success and the size of potential reward, can influence whether a claim is made. Results show the importance of giving an appropriate apology and conducting a satisfactory investigation. This stresses the importance around how patients are treated after a PSI in influencing the clinical negligence claims that are made.

Does EQ-5D Tell the Whole Story? Statistical Methods for Comparing the Thematic Coverage of Clinical and Generic Outcome Measures, With Application to Breast Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop the following: (1) methods for assessing claims in any specific application that a generic outcome measure, such as EQ-5D is deficient in its coverage of 1 or more specified domains, and (2) a simple method of judging whether any such deficiency is likely to be quantitatively important enough to call into question evaluations based on the generic instrument. Also to demonstrate the applicability of the methods in the important area of breast cancer. METHODS: The methodology requires a data set with observations from a generic instrument (eg, EQ-5D) and also a more comprehensive clinical instrument (eg, FACT-B [Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - Breast]). A standardized 3-component statistical analysis is proposed for investigating the claim that the generic measure inadequately captures some specified dimension covered by the latter instrument. A theoretically based upper bound on the bias induced by deficient coverage is derived based on the assumption that the designers of the (k-dimensional) generic instrument did succeed in identifying the k most important domains. RESULTS: Data from the MARIANNE breast cancer trial were analyzed and results suggested that impacts on personal appearance and relationships may be inadequately represented by EQ-5D. Nevertheless, the indications are that the bias in quality-adjusted life-year differences from deficient coverage by EQ-5D is likely to be modest. CONCLUSIONS: The methodology offers a systematic approach to determining whether there is clear evidence consistent with any claim that a generic outcome measure such as EQ-5D misses an important specific domain. The approach is readily implementable using data sets that are available in many randomized controlled trials.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Remdesivir for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in England and Wales.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. This study aims to synthesize evidence to assess the cost-effectiveness of remdesivir (RDV) for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in England and Wales. METHODS: A probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted informed by 2 large trials and uses a partitioned survival approach to assess short- and long-term clinical consequences and costs associated with COVID-19 in a hypothetical cohort of hospitalized patients requiring supplemental oxygen at the start of treatment. Given that it is uncertain whether RDV reduces death, 2 analyses are presented, assuming RDV either reduces death or does not. Published sources were used for long-term clinical, quality of life, and cost parameters. RESULTS: Under the assumption that RDV reduces death, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for RDV is estimated at £11 881 per quality-adjusted life-year gained compared with standard of care (SoC) (probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £12 400). The probability for RDV to be cost-effective is 74% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RDV was no longer cost-effective when the hazard ratio for overall survival compared with SoC was >0·915. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this study suggest that using RDV for the treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 is likely to represent a cost-effective use of National Health Service resources at current willingness-to-pay threshold in England and Wales, only if it prevents death. Results needs to be interpreted caution as vaccination was introduced and the SoC and evidence available have also evolved considerably since the analysis is conducted.

Mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 to EQ-5D-3L in patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The types of outcomes measured collected in clinical studies and those required for cost-effectiveness analysis often differ. Decision makers routinely use quality adjusted life years (QALYs) to compare the benefits and costs of treatments across different diseases and treatments using a common metric. QALYs can be calculated using preference-based measures (PBMs) such as EQ-5D-3L, but clinical studies often focus on objective clinician or laboratory measured outcomes and non-preference-based patient outcomes, such as QLQ-C30. We model the relationship between the generic, preference-based EQ-5D-3L and the cancer specific quality of life questionnaire, QLQ-C30 in patients with breast cancer. This will result in a mapping that allows users to convert QLQ-C30 scores into EQ-5D-3L scores for the purposes of cost-effectiveness analysis or economic evaluation. METHODS: We use data from a randomized trial of 602 patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer provided 3766 EQ-5D-3L observations. Direct mapping using adjusted, limited dependent variable mixture models (ALDVMM) is compared to a random effects linear regression and indirect mapping using seemingly unrelated ordered probit models. EQ-5D-3L was estimated as a function of the summary scales of the QLQ-C30 and other patient characteristics. RESULTS: A four component mixture model outperformed other models in terms of summary fit statistics. A close fit to the observed data was observed across the range of disease severity. Simulated data from the model closely aligned to the original data and showed that mapping did not significantly underestimate uncertainty. In the simulated data, 22.15% were equal to 1 compared to 21.93% in the original data. Variance was 0.0628 in the simulated data versus 0.0693 in the original data. The preferred mapping is provided in Excel and Stata files for the ease of users. CONCLUSION: A four component adjusted mixture model provides reliable, non-biased estimates of EQ-5D-3L from the QLQ-C30, to link clinical studies to economic evaluation of health technologies for breast cancer. This work adds to a growing body of literature demonstrating the appropriateness of mixture model based approaches in mapping.

Mapping clinical outcomes to generic preference-based outcome measures: development and comparison of methods.

BACKGROUND: Cost-effectiveness analysis using quality-adjusted life-years as the measure of health benefit is commonly used to aid decision-makers. Clinical studies often do not include preference-based measures that allow the calculation of quality-adjusted life-years, or the data are insufficient. 'Mapping' can bridge this evidence gap; it entails estimating the relationship between outcomes measured in clinical studies and the required preference-based measures using a different data set. However, many methods for mapping yield biased results, distorting cost-effectiveness estimates. OBJECTIVES: Develop existing and new methods for mapping; test their performance in case studies spanning different preference-based measures; and develop methods for mapping between preference-based measures. DATA SOURCES: Fifteen data sets for mapping from non-preference-based measures to preference-based measures for patients with head injury, breast cancer, asthma, heart disease, knee surgery and varicose veins were used. Four preference-based measures were covered: the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, three-level version (n = 11), EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, five-level version (n = 2), Short Form questionnaire-6 Dimensions (n = 1) and Health Utility Index Mark 3 (n = 1). Sample sizes ranged from 852 to 136,327. For mapping between generic preference-based measures, data from FORWARD, the National Databank for Rheumatic Diseases (which includes the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, three-level version, and EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, five-level version, in its 2011 wave), were used. MAIN METHODS DEVELOPED: Mixture-model-based approaches for direct mapping, in which the dependent variable is the health utility value, including adaptations of methods developed to model the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, three-level version, and beta regression mixtures, were developed, as were indirect methods, in which responses to the descriptive systems are modelled, for consistent multidirectional mapping between preference-based measures. A highly flexible approach was designed, using copulas to specify the bivariate distribution of each pair of EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, three-level version, and EuroQoL-5 Dimensions, five-level version, responses. RESULTS: A range of criteria for assessing model performance is proposed. Theoretically, linear regression is inappropriate for mapping. Case studies confirm this. Flexible, direct mapping methods, based on different variants of mixture models with appropriate underlying distributions, perform very well for all preference-based measures. The precise form is important. Case studies show that a minimum of three components are required. Covariates representing disease severity are required as predictors of component membership. Beta-based mixtures perform similarly to the bespoke mixture approaches but necessitate detailed consideration of the number and location of probability masses. The flexible, bi-directional indirect approach performs well for testing differences between preference-based measures. LIMITATIONS: Case studies drew heavily on EuroQoL-5 Dimensions. Indirect methods could not be undertaken for several case studies because of a lack of coverage. These methods will often be unfeasible for preference-based measures with complex descriptive systems. CONCLUSIONS: Mapping requires appropriate methods to yield reliable results. Evidence shows that widely used methods such as linear regression are inappropriate. More flexible methods developed specifically for mapping show that close-fitting results can be achieved. Approaches based on mixture models are appropriate for all preference-based measures. Some features are universally required (such as the minimum number of components) but others must be assessed on a case-by-case basis (such as the location and number of probability mass points). FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITIES: Further research is recommended on (1) the use of the monotonicity concept, (2) the mismatch of trial and mapping distributions and measurement error and (3) the development of indirect methods drawing on methods developed for mapping between preference-based measures. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 34. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This project was also funded by a Medical Research Council grant (MR/L022575/1).

Coherent decisions about which health services and treatments to provide rely on economic analysis to weigh potential health benefits against costs. For decisions to be consistent across the whole health service, benefits need to be counted in the same way for patients with different health problems. This is accomplished by using a unit of measurement for treatment outcomes called the quality-adjusted life-year. The best way to calculate quality-adjusted life-years is to ask patients taking part in clinical studies to fill in specially designed questionnaires to describe their health in a simple, standardised way. However, clinical trials often record patient outcomes in different ways, leaving economic analysts without the necessary information to calculate quality-adjusted life-years. A way to overcome this problem (known as 'statistical mapping') is to use the available clinical data to predict the responses that would have been made by trial participants to the standard questionnaire. This requires analysis of data from an additional study in which patients have provided both types of outcome data to construct a statistical 'mapping model'. Mapping is widely used in practice, but it is often based on simple mapping models that in some circumstances systematically mispredict and may consequently give a false picture of the real health benefits of treatments. This is important because it influences decisions about which treatments are available in the NHS; it has real effects on patients, clinicians, industry and the general public. Our objectives are to develop promising new statistical mapping models specifically designed for different clinical contexts and to compare them using patient data in different disease areas. We have also developed an approach for judging the outcome of a mapping study. We find that the new methods work better than existing methods in terms of their ability to fit the data and avoid systematic bias.

The Impact of Moving from EQ-5D-3L to -5L in NICE Technology Appraisals.

BACKGROUND: The EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) instrument is the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE)'s preferred measure of health-related quality of life (QoL) in adults. The three-level (3L) value set is currently recommended for use, but the five-level (5L) set is increasingly being used in practice. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore the impact of moving from 3L to 5L in NICE appraisals. METHODS: We adapted our existing mapping for use with health state utility values derived from a population where the original distribution of utilities was unknown. We used this mapping to estimate 5L utilities for 21 comparisons of interventions from models used in NICE technology appraisal decision making, covering a range of disease areas. RESULTS: All utilities increased using 5L, and the differences between highest and lowest utilities decreased. In ten oncology comparisons, using 5L generally increased the incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) as the benefit from improving survival increased. In four non-oncology comparisons where the intervention improved QoL only, the incremental QALYs decreased as the benefit of improving QoL was reduced. In seven non-oncology comparisons where interventions improved survival and QoL, there was a trade-off between increasing the benefit from survival and decreasing the benefit from improving QoL. CONCLUSION: 3L and 5L lead to substantially different estimates of incremental QALYs and cost effectiveness. The direction and magnitude of the change is not consistent across case studies. Using 5L instead of 3L may lead to different reimbursement decisions. NICE will face inconsistencies in decision making if it uses 3L and 5L concurrently.

Mapping the FACT-B Instrument to EQ-5D-3L in Patients with Breast Cancer Using Adjusted Limited Dependent Variable Mixture Models versus Response Mapping.

BACKGROUND: Preference-based measures of health, such as the three-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-3L), are required to calculate quality-adjusted life-years for use in cost-effectiveness analysis, but are often not recorded in clinical studies. In these cases, mapping can be used to estimate preference-based measures. OBJECTIVES: To model the relationship between the EQ-5D-3L and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Breast Cancer (FACT-B) instrument, comparing indirect and direct mapping methods, and the use of FACT-B summary score versus FACT-B subscale scores. METHODS: We used data from three clinical studies for advanced breast cancer providing 11,958 observations with full information on FACT-B and the EQ-5D-3L. We compared direct mapping using adjusted limited dependent variable mixture models (ALDVMMs) with indirect mapping using seemingly unrelated ordered probit models. The EQ-5D-3L was estimated as a function of FACT-B and other patient-related covariates. RESULTS: The use of FACT-B subscale scores was better than using the total FACT-B score. A good fit to the observed data was observed across the entire range of disease severity in all models. ALDVMMs outperformed the indirect mapping. The breast cancer-specific scale had a strong influence in predicting the pain/discomfort and self-care dimensions of the EQ-5D-3L. CONCLUSIONS: This article adds to the growing literature that demonstrates the performance of the ALDVMM method for mapping. Regardless of which model is used, the subscales of FACT-B should be included as independent variables wherever possible. The breast cancer-specific subscale of FACT-B is important in predicting the EQ-5D-3L. This suggests that generic cancer measures should not be used for utility mapping in patients with breast cancer.

Does intensive management improve remission rates in patients with intermediate rheumatoid arthritis? (the TITRATE trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Uncontrolled active rheumatoid arthritis can lead to increasing disability and reduced quality of life over time. 'Treating to target' has been shown to be effective in active established disease and also in early disease. However, there is a lack of nationally agreed treatment protocols for patients with established rheumatoid arthritis who have intermediate disease activity. This trial is designed to investigate whether intensive management of disease leads to a greater number of remissions at 12 months. Levels of disability and quality of life, and acceptability and cost-effectiveness of the intervention will also be examined. METHODS: The trial is a 12-month, pragmatic, randomised, open-label, two-arm, parallel-group, multicentre trial undertaken at specialist rheumatology centres across England. Three hundred and ninety-eight patients with established rheumatoid arthritis will be recruited. They will currently have intermediate disease activity (disease activity score for 28 joints assessed using an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 3.2 to 5.1 with at least three active joints) and will be taking at least one disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug. Participants will be randomly selected to receive intensive management or standard care. Intensive management will involve monthly clinical reviews with a specialist health practitioner, where drug treatment will be optimised and an individualised treatment support programme delivered based on several principles of motivational interviewing to address identified problem areas, such as pain, fatigue and adherence. Standard care will follow standard local pathways and will be in line with current English guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. Patients will be assessed initially and at 6 and 12 months through self-completed questionnaires and clinical evaluation. DISCUSSION: The trial will establish whether the known benefits of intensive treatment strategies in active rheumatoid arthritis are also seen in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis who have moderately active disease. It will evaluate both the clinical and cost-effectiveness of intensive treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ID: ISRCTN70160382 . Registered on 16 January 2014.

The Role of Ultrasound Compared to Biopsy of Temporal Arteries in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Giant Cell Arteritis (TABUL): a diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness study.

BACKGROUND: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) is a relatively common form of primary systemic vasculitis, which, if left untreated, can lead to permanent sight loss. We compared ultrasound as an alternative diagnostic test with temporal artery biopsy, which may be negative in 9-61% of true cases. OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ultrasound with biopsy in diagnosing patients with suspected GCA. DESIGN: Prospective multicentre cohort study. SETTING: Secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 381 patients referred with newly suspected GCA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity, specificity and cost-effectiveness of ultrasound compared with biopsy or ultrasound combined with biopsy for diagnosing GCA and interobserver reliability in interpreting scan or biopsy findings. RESULTS: We developed and implemented an ultrasound training programme for diagnosing suspected GCA. We recruited 430 patients with suspected GCA. We analysed 381 patients who underwent both ultrasound and biopsy within 10 days of starting treatment for suspected GCA and who attended a follow-up assessment (median age 71.1 years; 72% female). The sensitivity of biopsy was 39% [95% confidence interval (CI) 33% to 46%], which was significantly lower than previously reported and inferior to ultrasound (54%, 95% CI 48% to 60%); the specificity of biopsy (100%, 95% CI 97% to 100%) was superior to ultrasound (81%, 95% CI 73% to 88%). If we scanned all suspected patients and performed biopsies only on negative cases, sensitivity increased to 65% and specificity was maintained at 81%, reducing the need for biopsies by 43%. Strategies combining clinical judgement (clinician's assessment at 2 weeks) with the tests showed sensitivity and specificity of 91% and 81%, respectively, for biopsy and 93% and 77%, respectively, for ultrasound; cost-effectiveness (incremental net monetary benefit) was £485 per patient in favour of ultrasound with both cost savings and a small health gain. Inter-rater analysis revealed moderate agreement among sonographers (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.61, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.75), similar to pathologists (0.62, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.76). LIMITATIONS: There is no independent gold standard diagnosis for GCA. The reference diagnosis used to determine accuracy was based on classification criteria for GCA that include clinical features at presentation and biopsy results. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated the feasibility of providing training in ultrasound for the diagnosis of GCA. Our results indicate better sensitivity but poorer specificity of ultrasound compared with biopsy and suggest some scope for reducing the role of biopsy. The moderate interobserver agreement for both ultrasound and biopsy indicates scope for improving assessment and reporting of test results and challenges the assumption that a positive biopsy always represents GCA. FUTURE WORK: Further research should address the issue of an independent reference diagnosis, standards for interpreting and reporting test results and the evaluation of ultrasound training, and should also explore the acceptability of these new diagnostic strategies in GCA. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The HubBLe Trial: haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) versus rubber band ligation (RBL) for symptomatic second- and third-degree haemorrhoids: a multicentre randomised controlled trial and health-economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Optimal surgical intervention for low-grade haemorrhoids is unknown. Rubber band ligation (RBL) is probably the most common intervention. Haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) is a novel alternative that may be more efficacious. OBJECTIVE: The comparison of HAL with RBL for the treatment of grade II/III haemorrhoids. DESIGN: A multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial. PERSPECTIVE: UK NHS and Personal Social Services. SETTING: 17 NHS Trusts. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged ≥ 18 years presenting with grade II/III (second- and third-degree) haemorrhoids, including those who have undergone previous RBL. INTERVENTIONS: HAL with Doppler probe compared with RBL. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome - recurrence at 1 year post procedure; secondary outcomes - recurrence at 6 weeks; haemorrhoid severity score; European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, 5-level version (EQ-5D-5L); Vaizey incontinence score; pain assessment; complications; and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: A total of 370 participants entered the trial. At 1 year post procedure, 30% of the HAL group had evidence of recurrence compared with 49% after RBL [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.42 to 3.51; p = 0.0005]. The main reason for the difference was the number of extra procedures required to achieve improvement/cure. If a single HAL is compared with multiple RBLs then only 37.5% recurred in the RBL arm (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.15; p = 0.20). Persistence of significant symptoms at 6 weeks was lower in both arms than at 1 year (9% HAL and 29% RBL), suggesting significant deterioration in both groups over the year. Symptom score, EQ-5D-5L and Vaizey score improved in both groups compared with baseline, but there was no difference between interventions. Pain was less severe and of shorter duration in the RBL group; most of the HAL group who had pain had mild to moderate pain, resolving by 3 weeks. Complications were low frequency and not significantly different between groups. It appeared that HAL was not cost-effective compared with RBL. In the base-case analysis, the difference in mean total costs was £1027 higher for HAL. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were higher for HAL; however, the difference was very small (0.01) resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £104,427 per additional QALY. CONCLUSIONS: At 1 year, although HAL resulted in fewer recurrences, recurrence was similar to repeat RBL. Symptom scores, complications, EQ-5D-5L and continence score were no different, and patients had more pain in the early postoperative period after HAL. HAL is more expensive and unlikely to be cost-effective in terms of incremental cost per QALY. LIMITATIONS: Blinding of participants and site staff was not possible. FUTURE WORK: The incidence of recurrence may continue to increase with time. Further follow-up would add to the evidence regarding long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The polysymptomatic nature of haemorrhoidal disease requires a validated scoring system, and the data from this trial will allow further assessment of validity of such a system. These data add to the literature regarding treatment of grade II/III haemorrhoids. The results dovetail with results from the eTHoS study [Watson AJM, Hudson J, Wood J, Kilonzo M, Brown SR, McDonald A, et al. Comparison of stapled haemorrhoidopexy with traditional excisional surgery for haemorrhoidal disease (eTHoS): a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. Lancet 2016, in press.] comparing stapled haemorrhoidectomy with excisional haemorrhoidectomy. Combined results will allow expansion of analysis, allowing surgeons to tailor their treatment options to individual patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN41394716. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 88. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Haemorrhoidal artery ligation versus rubber band ligation for the management of symptomatic second-degree and third-degree haemorrhoids (HubBLe): a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Optimum surgical intervention for low-grade haemorrhoids is unknown. Haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) has been proposed as an efficacious, safe therapy while rubber band ligation (RBL) is a commonly used outpatient treatment. We compared recurrence after HAL versus RBL in patients with grade II-III haemorrhoids. METHODS: This multicentre, open-label, parallel group, randomised controlled trial included patients from 17 acute UK NHS trusts. We screened patients aged 18 years or older presenting with grade II-III haemorrhoids. We excluded patients who had previously received any haemorrhoid surgery, more than one injection treatment for haemorrhoids, or more than one RBL procedure within 3 years before recruitment. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) to either RBL or HAL with Doppler. Randomisation was computer-generated and stratified by centre with blocks of random sizes. Allocation concealment was achieved using a web-based system. The study was open-label with no masking of participants, clinicians, or research staff. The primary outcome was recurrence at 1 year, derived from the patient's self-reported assessment in combination with resource use from their general practitioner and hospital records. Recurrence was analysed in patients who had undergone one of the interventions and been followed up for at least 1 year. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN41394716. FINDINGS: From Sept 9, 2012, to May 6, 2014, of 969 patients screened, 185 were randomly assigned to the HAL group and 187 to the RBL group. Of these participants, 337 had primary outcome data (176 in the RBL group and 161 in the HAL group). At 1 year post-procedure, 87 (49%) of 176 patients in the RBL group and 48 (30%) of 161 patients in the HAL group had haemorrhoid recurrence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2·23, 95% CI 1·42-3·51; p=0·0005). The main reason for this difference was the number of extra procedures required to achieve improvement (57 [32%] participants in the RBL group and 23 [14%] participants in the HAL group had a subsequent procedure for haemorrhoids). The mean pain 1 day after procedure was 3·4 (SD 2·8) in the RBL group and 4·6 (2·8) in the HAL group (difference -1·2, 95% CI -1·8 to -0·5; p=0·0002); at day 7 the scores were 1·6 (2·3) in the RBL group and 3·1 (2·4) in the HAL group (difference -1·5, -2·0 to -1·0; p<0·0001). Pain scores did not differ between groups at 21 days and 6 weeks. 15 individuals reported serious adverse events requiring hospital admission. One patient in the RBL group had a pre-existing rectal tumour. Of the remaining 14 serious adverse events, 12 (7%) were among participants treated with HAL and two (1%) were in those treated with RBL. Six patients had pain (one treated with RBL, five treated with HAL), three had bleeding not requiring transfusion (one treated with RBL, two treated with HAL), two in the HAL group had urinary retention, two in the HAL group had vasovagal upset, and one in the HAL group had possible sepsis (treated with antibiotics). INTERPRETATION: Although recurrence after HAL was lower than a single RBL, HAL was more painful than RBL. The difference in recurrence was due to the need for repeat bandings in the RBL group. Patients (and health commissioners) might prefer such a course of RBL to the more invasive HAL. FUNDING: NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.

Adjusting survival time estimates to account for treatment switching in randomized controlled trials--an economic evaluation context: methods, limitations, and recommendations.

BACKGROUND: Treatment switching commonly occurs in clinical trials of novel interventions in the advanced or metastatic cancer setting. However, methods to adjust for switching have been used inconsistently and potentially inappropriately in health technology assessments (HTAs). OBJECTIVE: We present recommendations on the use of methods to adjust survival estimates in the presence of treatment switching in the context of economic evaluations. METHODS: We provide background on the treatment switching issue and summarize methods used to adjust for it in HTAs. We discuss the assumptions and limitations associated with adjustment methods and draw on results of a simulation study to make recommendations on their use. RESULTS: We demonstrate that methods used to adjust for treatment switching have important limitations and often produce bias in realistic scenarios. We present an analysis framework that aims to increase the probability that suitable adjustment methods can be identified on a case-by-case basis. We recommend that the characteristics of clinical trials, and the treatment switching mechanism observed within them, should be considered alongside the key assumptions of the adjustment methods. Key assumptions include the "no unmeasured confounders" assumption associated with the inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) method and the "common treatment effect" assumption associated with the rank preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM). CONCLUSIONS: The limitations associated with switching adjustment methods such as the RPSFTM and IPCW mean that they are appropriate in different scenarios. In some scenarios, both methods may be prone to bias; "2-stage" methods should be considered, and intention-to-treat analyses may sometimes produce the least bias. The data requirements of adjustment methods also have important implications for clinical trialists.

The HubBLe trial: haemorrhoidal artery ligation (HAL) versus rubber band ligation (RBL) for haemorrhoids.

BACKGROUND: Haemorrhoids (piles) are a very common condition seen in surgical clinics. After exclusion of more sinister causes of haemorrhoidal symptoms (rectal bleeding, perianal irritation and prolapse), the best option for treatment depends upon persistence and severity of the symptoms. Minor symptoms often respond to conservative treatment such as dietary fibre and reassurance. For more severe symptoms treatment such as rubber band ligation may be therapeutic and is a very commonly performed procedure in the surgical outpatient setting. Surgery is usually reserved for those who have more severe symptoms, as well as those who do not respond to non-operative therapy; surgical techniques include haemorrhoidectomy and haemorrhoidopexy. More recently, haemorrhoidal artery ligation has been introduced as a minimally invasive, non destructive surgical option.There are substantial data in the literature concerning efficacy and safety of 'rubber band ligation including multiple comparisons with other interventions, though there are no studies comparing it to haemorrhoidal artery ligation. A recent overview has been carried out by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence which concludes that current evidence shows haemorrhoidal artery ligation to be a safe alternative to haemorrhoidectomy and haemorrhoidopexy though it also highlights the lack of good quality data as evidence for the advantages of the technique. METHODS/DESIGN: The aim of this study is to establish the clinical effectiveness and cost effectiveness of haemorrhoidal artery ligation compared with conventional rubber band ligation in the treatment of people with symptomatic second or third degree (Grade II or Grade III) haemorrhoids. DESIGN: A multi-centre, parallel group randomised controlled trial. OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is patient-reported symptom recurrence twelve months following the intervention. Secondary outcome measures relate to symptoms, complications, health resource use, health related quality of life and cost effectiveness following the intervention. PARTICIPANTS: 350 patients with grade II or grade III haemorrhoids will be recruited in surgical departments in up to 14 NHS hospitals. RANDOMISATION: A multi-centre, parallel group randomised controlled trial. Block randomisation by centre will be used, with 175 participants randomised to each group. DISCUSSION: The results of the research will help inform future practice for the treatment of grade II and III haemorrhoids. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN41394716.

The Sheffield rheumatoid arthritis health economic model.

The Sheffield RA health economic model has been used in several published cost-effectiveness analyses in both the UK and internationally to evaluate different treatments for patients with RA. This article presents the key methods and assumptions that underpin the model, including justifications for using an individual patient sampling methodology, and why the model has used the HAQ to track disease activity. The article also details how trial and observational data are used in the model to address specific questions. The model has been used to support health policy in both the UK and internationally, although the limited evidence still provides a challenge when using an economic model to determine the cost-effectiveness of RA treatments. The results of analyses using the Sheffield RA model are presented. The limitations of the model are discussed, and improvements are continually required to provide a model that is appropriate to address health economic questions in the future. The Sheffield RA model continues to be used and refined, and allows health economic questions to be answered using a transparent and flexible modelling methodology.

Demands for 'off-licence' access to trastuzumab (Herceptin): content analysis of UK newspaper articles.

BACKGROUND: Sensationalized reporting styles and a distorted framing of health-care issues in newspapers may trigger inappropriate commissioning decisions. We evaluated UK press coverage of pre-licensing access to trastuzumab (Herceptin) for early breast cancer as a case study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Content analysis of newspaper articles published between April 2005 and May 2006 were coded by two researchers for interest groups represented, claims made and sensationalized reporting. Disagreements in coding were resolved by a third researcher. One thousand and ninety published articles were identified in the study period and a 20% sample (n = 218) was included in the content analysis. Most articles (76%, 95% CI 71-82) included claims about the clinical benefits of trastuzumab, and this was significantly higher than those expressing the uncertainty surrounding such benefits (6%, 95% CI 3-9) or those that discussed the potential harms (5%, 95% CI 2-8). Articles were significantly more likely to feature claims made by a breast cancer survivor or family member than any other interest group (P < 0.0001). Almost half of the articles carried some message to the effect that trastuzumab would make the difference between life and death (47%, 95% CI 40-53). Over a quarter (28%, 95% CI 22-34) suggested that trastuzumab is a 'miracle drug' or similar. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of drugs are highlighted, frequently using sensationalist language, without equal consideration of uncertainty or risks. Health-care purchasers should express decisions in opportunity cost terms; journalists should give fairer coverage to such arguments.

The effectiveness of anti-TNF-alpha therapies when used sequentially in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review and meta-analyse evidence on the effectiveness of the TNF-α inhibitors when used sequentially. METHODS: Systematic review of comparative and single-arm observational studies. Data were synthesized using random-effects meta-analysis. Treatment effects were estimated using four outcome measures from the included studies: European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) and ACR20 response rates and mean improvement in disease activity score-28 (DAS-20) and HAQ. The effect of other factors was explored via meta-regression and sub-group analyses. RESULTS: Twenty studies comprising 2705 patients were included in the analysis. All studies were observational and most had no control group. Therefore, our primary analysis considered patient changes from baseline. The mean percentage of ACR20 responders was 60.8% (95% CI 53.8, 67.4), EULAR responders 70.5% (95% CI 63.7, 76.6), mean overall improvement in DAS-28 scores was 1.53 (95% CI 1.25, 1.80) and in HAQ scores was 0.25 (95% CI 0.11, 0.40). Four studies made comparisons with patients who received TNF-α inhibitors for the first time. Response rates associated with sequential TNF-α inhibitor treatment were lower than for first-time use. CONCLUSIONS: Sequential TNF-α inhibitor use is likely to lead to treatment benefit in terms of the signs and symptoms of disease and physical function. There is also some evidence to suggest that the probability of achieving a response is lower, and the average magnitude of response is lower than the first use. Further evidence from randomized controlled trials is required to confirm and further quantify the role specific anti-TNF-α agents have when used sequentially.

Biologic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis in the Medicare program: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Since the introduction of the Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement and Modernization Act and its associated demonstration project, coverage of selected biologic drugs has been expanded for Medicare beneficiaries. For rheumatoid arthritis, coverage was extended to etanercept, adalimumab, and anakinra in addition to the previously covered infliximab. We undertook to develop a model to compare the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) generated by each of the 4 biologic agents. METHODS: Data were drawn from meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and from a large longitudinal outcomes databank. Uncertainty was addressed using probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses. A lifetime horizon and Medicare viewpoint were adopted. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, anakinra was the least effective and least costly strategy. Etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab were similar in terms of effectiveness, but infliximab was more costly. If decision makers are willing to pay a maximum of $50,000/QALY, the probability that infliximab is cost-effective is <1%. Findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Only if the dose of infliximab remains constant over time is this likely to be a cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSION: Infliximab is unlikely to be cost-effective in the Medicare population compared with either etanercept or adalimumab. Anakinra is substantially less costly but is also less effective than the 3 tumor necrosis factor alpha inhibitors.

Comprehensive decision analytical modelling in economic evaluation: a Bayesian approach.

Decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. The whole decision modelling process can be summarised in four stages: (i) a systematic review of the relevant data (including meta-analyses), (ii) estimation of all inputs into the model (including effectiveness, transition probabilities and costs), (iii) sensitivity analysis for data and model specifications, and (iv) evaluation of the model. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the individual components of decision modelling, outlined above, may be addressed simultaneously in one coherent Bayesian model (sometimes known as a comprehensive decision analytical model) and evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in the specialist software WinBUGS. To illustrate the method described, it is applied to two illustrative examples: (1) The prophylactic use of neurominidase inhibitors for the prevention of influenza. (2) The use of taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer. The advantages of integrating the four stages outlined into one comprehensive decision analytical model, compared to the conventional 'two-stage' approach, are discussed.