Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts. METHODS: Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups. RESULTS: In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations. CONCLUSION: When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

Predicting the risk of chest radiograph abnormality 12-weeks post hospitalisation with SARS CoV-2 PCR confirmed COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Routine follow-up of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 is recommended, however due to the ongoing high number of infections this is not without significant health resource and economic burden. In a previous study we investigated the prevalence of, and risk factors for, persistent chest radiograph (CXR) abnormalities post-hospitalisation with COVID-19 and identified a 5-point composite score that strongly predicted risk of persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. Here we sought to validate and refine our findings in an independent cohort of patients. METHODOLOGY: A single-centre prospective study of consecutive patients attending a virtual post-hospitalisation COVID-19 clinic and CXR as part of their standard clinical care between 2nd March - 22nd June 2021. Inpatient and follow-up CXRs were scored by the assessing clinician for extent of pulmonary infiltrates (0-4 in each lung) with complete resolution defined as a follow-up score of zero. RESULTS: 182 consecutive patients were identified of which 31% had persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. Patients with persistent CXR abnormality were significantly older (p < 0.001), had a longer hospital length of stay (p = 0.005), and had a higher incidence of both level 2 or 3 facility admission (level 2/3 care) (p = 0.003) and ever-smoking history (p = 0.038). Testing our composite score in the present cohort we found it predicted persistent CXR abnormality with reasonable accuracy (area under the receiver operator curve [AUROC 0.64]). Refining this score replacing obesity with Age ≥ 50 years, we identify the SHADE-750 score (1-point each for; Smoking history, Higher-level care (level 2/3 admission), Age ≥ 50 years, Duration of admission ≥ 15 days and Enzyme-lactate dehydrogenase (LDH ≥ 750U/L), that accurately predicted risk of persistent CXR abnormality, both in the present cohort (AUROC 0.73) and when retrospectively applied to our 1st cohort (AUROC 0.79). Applied to both cohorts combined (n = 213) it again performed strongly (AUROC 0.75) with all patients with a score of zero (n = 18) having complete CXR resolution at 12-weeks. CONCLUSIONS: In two independent cohorts of patients hospitalised with COVID-19, we identify a 5-point score which accurately predicts patients at risk of persistent CXR abnormality at 12-weeks. This tool could be used by clinicians to identify patients in which radiological follow-up may not be required.

Bidirectional epithelial-mesenchymal crosstalk provides self-sustaining profibrotic signals in pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the prototypic progressive fibrotic lung disease with a median survival of 2 to 4 years. Injury to and/or dysfunction of the alveolar epithelium is strongly implicated in IPF disease initiation, but the factors that determine whether fibrosis progresses rather than normal tissue repair occurs remain poorly understood. We previously demonstrated that zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1-mediated epithelial-mesenchymal transition in human alveolar epithelial type II (ATII) cells augments transforming growth factor-ß-induced profibrogenic responses in underlying lung fibroblasts via paracrine signaling. Here, we investigated bidirectional epithelial-mesenchymal crosstalk and its potential to drive fibrosis progression. RNA-Seq of lung fibroblasts exposed to conditioned media from ATII cells undergoing RAS-induced epithelial-mesenchymal transition identified many differentially expressed genes including those involved in cell migration and extracellular matrix regulation. We confirmed that paracrine signaling between RAS-activated ATII cells and fibroblasts augmented fibroblast recruitment and demonstrated that this involved a zinc finger E-box-binding homeobox 1-tissue plasminogen activator axis. In a reciprocal fashion, paracrine signaling from transforming growth factor-ß-activated lung fibroblasts or IPF fibroblasts induced RAS activation in ATII cells, at least partially through the secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine, which may signal via the epithelial growth factor receptor via epithelial growth factor-like repeats. Together, these data identify that aberrant bidirectional epithelial-mesenchymal crosstalk in IPF drives a chronic feedback loop that maintains a wound-healing phenotype and provides self-sustaining profibrotic signals.