Long-term mortality following complications after elective surgery: a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Complications after surgery affect survival and quality of life. We aimed to confirm the relationship between postoperative complications and death within 1 yr after surgery. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of pooled data from two prospective cohort studies of patients undergoing surgery in five high-income countries between 2012 and 2014. Exposure was any complication within 30 days after surgery. Primary outcome was death within 1 yr after surgery, ascertained by direct follow-up or linkage to national registers. We adjusted for clinically important covariates using a mixed-effect multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model. We conducted a planned subgroup analysis by type of complication. Data are presented as mean with standard deviation (sd), n (%), and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The pooled cohort included 10 132 patients. After excluding 399 (3.9%) patients with missing data or incomplete follow-up, 9733 patients were analysed. The mean age was 59 [sd 16.8] yr, and 5362 (55.1%) were female. Of 9733 patients, 1841 (18.9%) had complications within 30 days after surgery, and 319 (3.3%) died within 1 yr after surgery. Of 1841 patients with complications, 138 (7.5%) died within 1 yr after surgery compared with 181 (2.3%) of 7892 patients without complications (aHR 1.94 [95% CI: 1.53-2.46]). Respiratory failure was associated with the highest risk of death, resulting in six deaths amongst 28 patients (21.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative complications are associated with increased mortality at 1 yr. Further research is needed to identify patients at risk of complications and to reduce mortality.

Liberal or restrictive antimicrobial prophylaxis for surgical site infection: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial prophylaxis is widely used to prevent surgical site infection. Amid growing concern about antimicrobial resistance, we determined the effectiveness of antimicrobial prophylaxis. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, and WHO-ICTRP between January 1, 1990 and January 1, 2020 for trials randomising adults undergoing surgery to liberal (more doses) or restrictive (fewer or no doses) perioperative antimicrobial prophylaxis. Pairs of researchers reviewed articles and extracted data, and a senior author resolved discrepancies. The primary outcome measure was surgical site infection or bacteriuria for urological procedures. We calculated average risk difference (RD) with 95% confidence intervals and prediction intervals (PI) using random effects models, and present risk ratios (RR). We assessed evidence certainty using GRADE methodology, and risk of bias using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool (PROSPERO: CRD42018116946). RESULTS: From 6593 records, we identified 294 trials including 86 146 patients. Surgical site infection occurred in 2237/44 113 (5.1%) patients receiving liberal prophylaxis vs 2889/42 033 (6.9%) receiving restrictive prophylaxis (RD -0.01 [-0.02 to -0.01]; relative risk 0.72 [0.67-0.77]; I2=52%, PI -0.05-0.02). There was a small benefit of prophylaxis in 161 trials comparing no prophylaxis with ≥1 dose (RD -0.02 [-0.03 to -0.02]; RR 0.58 [0.52-0.65]; I2=62%, PI -0.06-0.02). Treatment effect varied from a strong effect in urology to no benefit in 7/19 specialities. Tests for publication bias suggest 62 unreported trials and evidence certainty was very low. Treatment harms were reported in 43/294 trials. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials revealed that more liberal antimicrobial prophylaxis is associated with a small reduction in the risk of surgical site infection, although antimicrobial harms are poorly reported. Further evidence about the risks of antimicrobial prophylaxis to inform current widespread use is urgently needed.

Ethnicity and outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 infection in East London: an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe outcomes within different ethnic groups of a cohort of hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection. To quantify and describe the impact of a number of prognostic factors, including frailty and inflammatory markers. SETTING: Five acute National Health Service Hospitals in east London. DESIGN: Prospectively defined observational study using registry data. PARTICIPANTS: 1737 patients aged 16 years or over admitted to hospital with confirmed COVID-19 infection between 1 January and 13 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was 30-day mortality from time of first hospital admission with COVID-19 diagnosis during or prior to admission. Secondary outcomes were 90-day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, ICU and hospital length of stay and type and duration of organ support. Multivariable survival analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: 1737 were included in our analysis of whom 511 had died by day 30 (29%). 538 (31%) were from Asian, 340 (20%) black and 707 (40%) white backgrounds. Compared with white patients, those from minority ethnic backgrounds were younger, with differing comorbidity profiles and less frailty. Asian and black patients were more likely to be admitted to ICU and to receive invasive ventilation (OR 1.54, (95% CI 1.06 to 2.23); p=0.023 and OR 1.80 (95% CI 1.20 to 2.71); p=0.005, respectively). After adjustment for age and sex, patients from Asian (HR 1.49 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.86); p<0.001) and black (HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.65); p=0.036) backgrounds were more likely to die. These findings persisted across a range of risk factor-adjusted analyses accounting for major comorbidities, obesity, smoking, frailty and ABO blood group. CONCLUSIONS: Patients from Asian and black backgrounds had higher mortality from COVID-19 infection despite controlling for all previously identified confounders and frailty. Higher rates of invasive ventilation indicate greater acute disease severity. Our analyses suggest that patients of Asian and black backgrounds suffered disproportionate rates of premature death from COVID-19.

Socioeconomic deprivation and long-term outcomes after elective surgery: analysis of prospective data from two observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with health inequalities. We explored relationships between socioeconomic group and outcomes after elective surgery in the UK National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: We combined data from two observational studies in 115 NHS hospitals and determined socioeconomic group using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintiles based on place of residence. Postoperative complications and 3-yr survival were assessed using logistic and Cox regression. Univariate analyses were adjusted for age differences between IMD quintiles. Multivariable analyses were used to account for other baseline risk factors including sex and comorbid disease. Results are reported as n (%), hazard ratios (HR) or odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Postoperative complications developed in 971/9051 patients (10.7%) and 1597/9043 patients (17.7%) died within 3 yr. Complication rates increased with deprivation (reference group least-deprived IMD5): IMD1 (OR=1.44 [1.17-1.78]; P<0.001), IMD2 (OR=1.38 [1.12-1.70]; P<0.01), IMD3 (OR=1.09 [0.88-1.35]: P=0.44), IMD4 (OR=0.89 [0.71-1.11]; P=0.30). More patients from the most deprived quintile died (IMD1) (n=349, 18.8%) compared with the least deprived (IMD5) (n=297, 15.9%) with a trend across the socioeconomic spectrum (P=0.01). After age adjustment, patients in the most deprived areas experienced reduced 3-yr survival: IMD1 (HR=1.43 [1.23-1.67]; P<0.0001), IMD2 (HR=1.35 [1.15-1.57]; P<0.001), IMD3 (HR=1.04 [0.89-1.23]; P=0.60), and IMD4 (HR=1.11 [0.95-1.30]; P=0.19). This finding persisted in risk-adjusted analyses. Increased complication rates only partially explained this reduced survival. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with worse long-term outcomes after elective surgery. This risk factor should be considered when planning perioperative care for patients from deprived areas.

Prospective observational study of postoperative infection and outcomes after noncardiac surgery: analysis of prospective data from the VISION cohort.

BACKGROUND: Infection is a frequent cause of postoperative morbidity and mortality. The incidence, risk factors, and outcomes for postoperative infections remain poorly characterised. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective international cohort study of patients aged ≥45 yr who had noncardiac surgery (VISION), including data describing infection within 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome was postoperative infection. The secondary outcome was 30 day mortality. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression to identify baseline risk factors for infection. Results are presented as n (%) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals. Some denominators vary according to rates of missing data. RESULTS: Among 39 996 surgical patients, 3905 (9.8%) experienced 5152 postoperative infections and 715 (1.8%) died. The most frequent infection was surgical site infection (1555/3905 [39.8%]). Infection was most strongly associated with general surgery (OR: 3.74 [3.11-4.49]; P<0.01) and open surgical technique (OR: 2.03 [1.82-2.27]; P<0.01); 30 day mortality was greater amongst patients who experienced infection (262/3905 [6.7%] vs 453/36 091 patients who did not [1.3%]; OR: 3.47 [2.84-4.22]; P<0.01). Mortality was highest amongst patients with CNS infections (OR: 14.72 [4.41-49.12]; P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Infection is a common and important complication of noncardiac surgery, which is associated with high mortality. Further research is needed to identify more effective measures to prevent infections after surgery.