Outcomes of patients with resected stage III/IV acral or mucosal melanoma, treated with adjuvant anti-PD-1 based therapy.

IMPORTANCE: Acral (AM) and mucosal melanomas (MM) are rare subtypes with a poor prognosis. In those with advanced disease, anti-PD-1 (PD1) therapy has reduced activity compared to that seen in non-acral cutaneous melanoma. OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy of adjuvant PD1 in resected AM or MM. DESIGN: An international, retrospective cohort study SETTING: Data up to November 2021 collected from 20 centres across 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and ninety four patients with resected stage III or IV1 AM or MM who received adjuvant PD1 were included and compared to matched patients from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) database using a propensity score matching analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Recurrence-free survival (RFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) were investigated. RESULTS: Forty five of 139 (32%) AM and 9 of 55 (16%) MM patients completed adjuvant therapy. The main reason for early treatment cessation in both groups was disease recurrence: 51 (37%) and 30 (55%) in the AM and MM groups, respectively. In the AM group adjuvant PD1 was associated with a longer RFS [HR-0.69 (0.52-0.92, p = 0.0127)], DMFS [HR0.58 (0.38-0.89, p = 0.0134)] and OS [HR of 0.59 (0.38-0.92, p-value 0.0196)] when compared to the historical cohort. In the MM group there was no statistical difference in RFS [HR1.36 (0.69-2.68,p-value 0.3799], DMFS or OS. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: After adjuvant PD1, both AM and MM have a high risk of recurrence. Our data suggests a benefit to using adjuvant PD1 therapy in resected AM but not in resected MM. Additional studies to investigate the efficacy of adjuvant PD1 for MM are needed.

De-escalation of Post-mastectomy Irradiation in Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer with One to Three Positive Nodes.

BACKGROUND: The 21-gene recurrence score (RS) is used to predict benefit from chemotherapy in hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer with one to three positive lymph nodes. Prospective-retrospective studies have shown that the RS is prognostic for both systemic and locoregional recurrence in tamoxifen-treated patients. We aimed to assess whether RS could be utilized to predict a survival benefit from postmastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was used to identify women ≤ 75 years of age with HR+, HER2-negative, T1-3, N1, M0 breast cancer who underwent mastectomy and axillary staging with available RS during the years 2010-2016. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify association between treatment and overall survival (OS). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify variables correlating with PMRT and OS. RESULTS: A total of 8907 patients were identified. Of the total, 3203 (36%) patients received adjuvant PMRT and 5704 (64%) did not. Across the entire cohort, 5-year OS was 97.5% for patients receiving PMRT and 96.8% for those who did not (P = 0.063). After adjusting for all covariates, in patients with RS ≤ 25, there was no statistically significant improvement in 5-year OS with the addition of adjuvant PMRT (97.5% versus 98.1% P = 0.093). Moreover, no survival benefit was seen with axillary node dissection (P = 0.58) or with the addition of chemotherapy (P = 0.312). CONCLUSIONS: In our cohort of patients with one to three positive nodes and a RS ≤ 25, omission of post-mastectomy radiation therapy had no impact on OS. Our results suggest that RS may be utilized in the individualized decision making on PMRT.

Fluoroscopic Intraoperative Breast Neoplasm and Node Detection.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative localization is necessary for nonpalpable breast lesions. A novel procedure, fluoroscopic intraoperative neoplasm and node detection (FIND), obviates the preoperative painful and potentially expensive localization by using intraoperative visualization of the standard clip placed during diagnostic biopsy. We hypothesized FIND would improve negative margin rates. STUDY DESIGN: This is an IRB-approved retrospective study (September 2016 to March 2021). Electronic chart review identified breast and axillary node procedures using wire localization (WL) or FIND. Primary outcome was margin status. Secondary outcomes included re-excision rate, specimen weight, surgery time, and axillary node localization rate. RESULTS: We identified 459 patients, of whom 116 (25.3%) underwent FIND and 343 (74.7%) WL. Of these, 68.1% of FIND and 72.0% of WL procedures were for malignant lesions. Final margin positivity was 5.1% (4 of 79) for FIND and 16.6% (41 of 247) for WL (p = 0.008). This difference lost statistical significance on multivariable logistic regression (p = 0.652). Re-excision rates were 7.6% and 14.6% for FIND and WL (p = 0.125), with an equivalent mean specimen weight (p = 0.502), and mean surgery time of 177.5 ± 81.7 and 157.1 ± 66.8 minutes, respectively (mean ± SD; p = 0.022). FIND identified all (29 of 29) targeted axillary nodes, and WL identified only 80.1% (21 of 26) (p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: FIND has lower positive margin rates and a trend towards lower re-excision rates compared with WL, proving its value in localizing nonpalpable breast lesions. It also offers accurate localization of axillary nodes, valuable in the era of targeted axillary dissection. It is a method of visual localization, using a skill and equipment surgeons already have, and saves patients and medical systems an additional schedule-disruptive, painful procedure, especially valuable when using novel localization devices is cost-prohibitive.

Neoadjuvant checkpoint inhibitor immunotherapy for resectable mucosal melanoma.

Background: Neoadjuvant checkpoint inhibition (CPI) has recently demonstrated impressive outcomes in patients with stage 3 cutaneous melanoma. However, the safety, efficacy, and outcome of neoadjuvant CPI in patients with mucosal melanoma (MM) are not well studied as MM is a rare melanoma subtype. CPI such as combination nivolumab and ipilimumab achieves response rates of 37-43% in unresectable or metastatic MM but there is limited data regarding the efficacy of these agents in the preoperative setting. We hypothesize that neoadjuvant CPI is a safe and feasible approach for patients with resectable MM. Method: Under an institutionally approved protocol, we identified adult MM patients with resectable disease who received neoadjuvant anti-PD1 +/- anti-CTLA4 between 2015 to 2019 at our institution. Clinical information include age, gender, presence of nodal involvement or satellitosis, functional status, pre-treatment LDH, tumor mutation status, and treatment data was collected. Outcomes include event free survival (EFS), overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), pathologic response rate (PRR), and grade ≥3 toxicities. Results: We identified 36 patients. Median age was 62; 58% were female. Seventy-eight percent of patients received anti-PD1 + anti-CTLA4. Node positive disease or satellite lesions was present at the time of treatment initiation in 47% of patients. Primary sites of disease were anorectal (53%), urogenital (25%), head and neck (17%), and esophageal (6%). A minority of patients did not undergo surgery due to complete response (n=3, 8%) and disease progression (n=6, 17%), respectively. With a median follow up of 37.9 months, the median EFS was 9.2 months with 3-year EFS rate of 29%. Median OS had not been reached and 3-year OS rate was 55%. ORR was 47% and PRR was 35%. EFS was significantly higher for patients with objective response and for patients with pathologic response. OS was significantly higher for patients with pathologic response. Grade 3 toxicities were reported in 39% of patients. Conclusion: Neoadjuvant CPI for resectable MM is a feasible approach with signs of efficacy and an acceptable safety profile. As there is currently no standard approach for resectable MM, this study supports further investigations using neoadjuvant therapy for these patients.

Ex vivo organotypic cultures for synergistic therapy prioritization identify patient-specific responses to combined MEK and Src inhibition in colorectal cancer.

Translating preclinical studies to effective treatment protocols and identifying specific therapeutic responses in individuals with cancer is challenging. This may arise due to the complex genetic makeup of tumor cells and the impact of their multifaceted tumor microenvironment on drug response. To find new clinically relevant drug combinations for colorectal cancer (CRC), we prioritized the top five synergistic combinations from a large in vitro screen for ex vivo testing on 29 freshly resected human CRC tumors and found that only the combination of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK) and proto-oncogene tyrosine-protein kinase Src (Src) inhibition was effective when tested ex vivo. Pretreatment phosphorylated Src (pSrc) was identified as a predictive biomarker for MEK and Src inhibition only in the absence of KRASG12 mutations. Overall, we demonstrate the potential of using ex vivo platforms to identify drug combinations and discover MEK and Src dual inhibition as an effective drug combination in a predefined subset of individuals with CRC.

Adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with invasive lobular carcinoma and use of the 21-gene recurrence score: A National Cancer Database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is traditionally considered less responsive to chemotherapy. Although the Oncotype recurrence score (RS) has been validated to identify high-risk patients who benefit from chemotherapy, some studies have questioned its relevance in patients with ILC. The objective of this study was to better characterize potential use of the RS in these patients. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was used to identify women with stage I through III, T1 through T3, N0 or N1, hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative ILC or invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) who had an available RS between 2010 and 2016. Multivariable Cox regression was used to model the effect of variables on 5-year overall survival (OS). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS according to the RS, nodal status, and chemotherapy. RESULTS: In total, 15,763 patients with ILC and 100,070 with IDC were identified. The mean age of patients with ILC and IDC was 59.2 ± 9.1 and 57.2 ± 9.8, respectively. A lower percentage of patients with ILC versus those with IDC had a high RS, defined as >25 (6.6% vs 16.0%; P < .0001). ILC patients with a high RS who had N0 or N1 disease received approximately 10% less chemotherapy compared with similar patients who had IDC. The results indicated that the RS had statistically significant prognostic value for patients with ILC. In addition, an absolute OS advantage was correlated with the receipt of chemotherapy by patients with ILC who had a high RS with N0 or N1 disease. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ILC who have a high RS are treated less often with chemotherapy compared with similar patients who have IDC. Nevertheless, the RS has a prognostic as well as a predictive value in ILC, with an association between OS benefit and chemotherapy receipt in patients who have ILC with a high RS, especially if they have N1 disease. LAY SUMMARY: Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is a subtype of breast cancer comprising about 15% of cases. The Oncotype recurrence score (RS) is a genetic test of breast tumors that helps predict which patients might benefit from chemotherapy. Some have doubted the relevance of the RS for patients with ILC. In this study, the authors show that the RS is relevant for patients who have ILC. The RS has the potential of predicting the risk of recurrence and identifying patients with ILC who might benefit from chemotherapy.

De-escalation of Endocrine Therapy in Early Hormone Receptor-positive Breast Cancer: When Is Local Treatment Enough?

OBJECTIVE: To identify subgroups of hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer patients that might not benefit from adding endocrine therapy (ET) to their local treatment. BACKGROUND: De-escalation in breast cancer treatment has included surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy and has often focused on older patient populations. Systemic ET has yet to be de-escalated, though it carries serious side-effects, decreasing quality of life over 5 to 10 years. We hypothesize the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) could identify subgroups of younger patients whose long-term survival is unaffected by adjuvant ET. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was used to identify women aged ≥50, with HR+, HER2-negative tumors, ≤3 cm in size, N0 status, and a RS≤25, who underwent breast-conserving surgery in 2010 to 2016. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify association between treatment and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Of the 45,217 patients identified, 80.6% were 50 to 69 years old. 42,632 (94.3%) patients received ET and 2585 (5.7%) did not. The 5-year OS was 96.4% for patients receiving ET and 93.1% for those who did not (P < 0.001). After adjusting for all covariates, patients aged 50 to 69 with RS < 11 showed no statistically significant improvement in OS when adding ET to surgery, with or without radiation (P = 0.40). With RS 11 to 25, there was a significant improvement of OS with ET plus radiation (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Local treatment only, with de-escalation of long-term ET, for patients aged 50 to 69 with RS < 11, seems not to impact OS and should have an anticipated quality of life improvement. Prospective studies investigating this approach are warranted.

Prognosis and Chemotherapy Use in Breast Cancer Patients with Multiple Lymphatic Micrometastases: An NCDB Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The number of involved lymph nodes negatively affects prognosis in breast cancer patients. Nevertheless, current staging and treatment recommendations do not distinguish between patients with single versus multiple lymphatic micrometastases. In this study, we aim to better characterize these patients. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was retrospectively queried to identify 486,800 women with stage I-III, estrogen receptor-positive/progesterone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (ER+/PR+/HER2-) breast cancer and nodal status of N0, N1mi with 1 (Nmic1) or more (Nmic > 1) involved nodes, and N1 with 1 involved node (N1.1), from 2010 to 2016. Patients with different nodal statuses were compared regarding treatment characteristics, survival, and benefit from chemotherapy by their 21-gene recurrence score (RS). RESULTS: Of the 23,072 N1mi patients, 88.3% were Nmic1 and 11.7% were Nmic > 1. Nmic > 1 patients were younger, had larger and higher-grade tumors, with more lymphovascular invasion, and were more commonly treated by axillary dissection, radiation, and chemotherapy than Nmic1 patients. In that, they were comparable with N1.1 patients. Five-year survival of Nmic > 1 patients (88.1%) was worse than Nmic1 patients (90.1%; p = 0.02), but similar to N1.1 patients (87.9%). Nmic1, Nmic > 1, and N1.1 patients with RS 11-25 exhibited a < 2% absolute survival benefit associated with chemotherapy. With RS > 25, Nmic > 1 patients showed a 3.5% benefit, similar to Nmic1 (4.8%) and lower than N1.1 (10.9%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Nmic > 1 breast cancer patients have worse prognoses than Nmic1 patients, similar to N1.1 patients. Our data suggest those patients with RS 11-25 have minimal benefit from chemotherapy. These findings should be taken into account when discussing prognosis and considering chemotherapy in patients with lymphatic micrometastases.

Postoperative Rise of Circulating Mitochondrial DNA Is Associated with Inflammatory Response in Patients following Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

INTRODUCTION: Accumulation of plasma mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) following severe trauma has been shown to correlate with the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and may predict mortality. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between levels of circulatory mtDNA following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and the postoperative course. METHODS: Levels of plasma mtDNA were assessed by real-time PCR of the mitochondrial genes ND1 and COX3 in 23 consecutive patients who underwent PD 1 day prior to surgery, within 8 h after surgery, and on postoperative day (POD)1 and POD5. The abundance of mtDNA was assessed relative to preoperative levels and in relation to parameters reflecting the postoperative clinical course. RESULTS: When pooled for all patients, the circulating mtDNA levels were significantly increased after surgery. However, while a significant (at least >2-fold and up to >20-fold) rise was noted in 11 patients, no change in mtDNA levels was noted in the other 12 following surgery. Postoperative rise in circulating mtDNA was associated with an increased rate of postoperative fever until day 5, decreased hemoglobin and albumin levels, and increased white blood cell counts. These patients also suffered from increased rates of delayed gastric emptying. No significant differences were demonstrated in other postoperative parameters. CONCLUSION: Circulating mtDNA surge is associated with an inflammatory response following PD and may potentially be used as an early marker for postoperative course. Studies of larger patient cohorts are warranted.

In Search of the Lost Clip: Outcome of Women After Needle-Guided Lumpectomy of a Marking Clip.

BACKGROUND: Needle localization of a marking clip is required to guide accurate removal of many breast lesions. When the clip is not visualized on specimen radiography, concerns regarding the completeness of cancer removal and long-term outcomes arise. Using a large cohort of women undergoing breast conservation, we examined the magnitude of the problem and the outcome of women with a missing clip. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study including all women undergoing mammographic wire-guided localization between 2013 and 2018 with a specimen radiograph showing a missing clip. The control group included women with successful removal of the clip(s). Data included demographics, cancer and treatment characteristics, and outcome. The groups were compared in regard to margin status, repeat surgery, and recurrence rates. RESULTS: The research group included 43 women [5% of the cohort; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9-7.2] with a missing clip. Positive margins were comparable (7, 17% of cases; 29, 15% of 196 cases in the control group; p = 0.96). Eleven women (33%) had a residual clip visualized on post-operative mammography; in four cases, a percutaneous biopsy of the clip was successful, all with no residual tumor. There was no significant difference in re-excision rates (14% vs. 8%, p = 0.23) or in local or distant recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: In the majority of women with a missing clip, the clip is not visualized on post-operative mammography. Those with a residual clip can be managed with percutaneous biopsy as long as the lesion was removed with clear margins, with comparable outcomes as women in whom the clip is visualized on specimen radiograph.

The 21-gene recurrence score in node-positive, hormone receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer: a cautionary tale from an NCDB analysis.

PURPOSE: The 21-gene recurrence score assay (RS) has not been prospectively validated to predict adjuvant chemotherapy benefit in hormone receptor-positive (HR+), HER2-negative (HER2-), node-positive breast cancer patients. Nevertheless, de-escalation based on RS has been demonstrated and partially advocated by retrospective data. The purpose of this study was to identify subgroups of node-positive patients with low to intermediate RS who still benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was used to identify 28,591 women with stage I-III, T1-T3, N1, HR+, HER2- breast cancer and a RS ≤ 25 between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify variables correlating with chemotherapy use and 5-year survival. Subgroup analysis was performed to discern patients in whom the use of adjuvant chemotherapy correlated with better survival. RESULTS: A 35% decline in chemotherapy use was observed from 2010 to 2016. Patients with younger age, higher RS, larger tumors and more positive lymph nodes, and those treated by mastectomy, axillary lymph node dissection and radiation, were more likely to receive chemotherapy. Chemotherapy use was associated with an improved 5-year survival (HR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.28-2.07). Upon subgroup analysis, this association was lost in patients > 70 years and those with a RS ≤ 11, while patients ≤ 70 with a RS of 12-25 treated with chemotherapy had an absolute 5-year survival advantage of 3.0% (HR = 1.91, 95% CI 1.42-2.57). CONCLUSION: Clinicians should be cautious when considering omission of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients ≤ 70 years, with HR+, HER2-, N1 tumors and a RS 12-25, at least until the results of the anticipated RxPONDER trial become available.

The human tumor microbiome is composed of tumor type-specific intracellular bacteria.

Bacteria were first detected in human tumors more than 100 years ago, but the characterization of the tumor microbiome has remained challenging because of its low biomass. We undertook a comprehensive analysis of the tumor microbiome, studying 1526 tumors and their adjacent normal tissues across seven cancer types, including breast, lung, ovary, pancreas, melanoma, bone, and brain tumors. We found that each tumor type has a distinct microbiome composition and that breast cancer has a particularly rich and diverse microbiome. The intratumor bacteria are mostly intracellular and are present in both cancer and immune cells. We also noted correlations between intratumor bacteria or their predicted functions with tumor types and subtypes, patients' smoking status, and the response to immunotherapy.

Management of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography-related perforations: Experience of a tertiary center.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography-induced perforation (EP) is a rare but severe complication. We describe the risk factors, management, and outcome of ERCP-induced perforations in a tertiary center. METHODS: This is a case-control study. All EP cases between March 2004 and February 2015 were compared to a control group without perforation. Data on patients, procedures, presentation, perforation type, radiologic findings, management, and outcome were assessed. RESULTS: Of 6,934 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatographies, 37 patients (0.53%) had EP. Independent risk factors included failure of cannulation, a procedure described as "difficult," performing a precut and resection of a periampullary adenoma. Perforation was diagnosed during the procedure in 7 patients (19%). Median interval for diagnosis was 11 hours (range: 0-201 hours), with 84% diagnosed within 30 hours. The periampullary region was the most common EP site (51%). Twenty-nine patients (78%) were managed conservatively and 8 (22%) were operated. Three patients failed conservative management and required delayed operation. Failure of conservative management had a detrimental effect on morbidity and duration of stay. All patients who required operative intervention had perforation of either the duodenal free wall or the periampullary region. CONCLUSION: Clear risk factors can be used to raise suspicion of EP. Early diagnosis and management are critical for better outcome. This is especially important when operative intervention is indicated. Nonetheless, the majority of patients may be managed conservatively.

Visceral Fat Content Correlates with Retroperitoneal Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS) Local Recurrence and Survival.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to evaluate the association between visceral fat content with soft tissue sarcoma (STS) local recurrence and survival. METHODS: One hundred and one computed tomography imaging studies of primary STS patients who had complete macroscopic resection at our institution between 2002 and 2012 were reviewed, and retroperitoneal and circumferential fat contents were measured. Correlations between imaging findings and clinical data were analyzed. RESULTS: Fifty-seven STS tumors (56.4%) were retroperitoneal; of them, 65% were high grade, median size was 15 cm (range 3-49), and the most common histological subtype was high grade liposarcoma (31.6%). Median follow-up length for the entire cohort was 64 months (range 6-95). High visceral fat (VF) content≥15 versus <15 mm was identified as a risk factor for retroperitoneal STS local recurrence; 65.1 versus 26.7%, respectively (p=0.04); VF content did not correlate with distant metastasis. Median overall survival (OS) length of patients with VF≥15 versus <15 mm was 57 months (range 2-144) versus not reached, respectively (p=0.007). Multivariable analysis identified VF≥15 mm as an independent risk factor for decreased OS (HR: 4.2, 95% CI 1.07-16.67). In contrast, circumferential fat content did not correlate with retroperitoneal STS patient outcomes. CONCLUSION: High VF content is an independent adverse prognosticator associated with significantly higher rates of retroperitoneal STS local recurrence and decreased patients survival. Local tumor biology may be affected by the presence of adipose cells. Further clinical and molecular research is needed to establish this premise.

The significance of the pattern of serum CA125 level ascent to above the normal range in epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal and tubal carcinoma patients.

OBJECTIVE: A rise of the CA125 marker above the normal range during follow-up of ovarian, primary peritoneal and tubal carcinoma patients with a complete clinical response after initial treatment signifies recurrence. We assessed whether the pattern of CA125 ascent to above the normal range at recurrence is associated with outcome. METHODS: The records of all recurrent ovarian primary peritoneal and tubal carcinoma patients diagnosed during 1998-2007 were abstracted. Included were patients who fulfilled the following criteria: CA125 levels were ≥35 U/mL at diagnosis and at recurrence, they had full primary treatment with a complete clinical and radiographic response, were followed-up according to schedule, and had at least two CA125 results within the normal range during follow-up. Two patterns of CA125 ascent to above the normal range were compared: a gradual rise and an abrupt rise. RESULTS: 52 patients with recurrent disease who met the inclusion criteria were identified. The median progression free and overall survival were significantly longer in patients with a gradual than in those with an abrupt rise (22.96 vs 14.07; P=0.0014; and 44.37 vs. median not yet reach, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that the pattern of CA125 ascent is an independent predictor of progression free and overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Our data seem to indicate that at recurrence the pattern of ascent of serum CA125 levels to above the normal range in patients in complete clinical remission is of prognostic value.

Prognostic significance of rising serum CA-125 levels within the normal range in patients with epithelial ovarian, primary peritoneal, and tubal cancers, who, after initial treatment, had a complete clinical response.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the ability of 3 criteria of rising CA-125 levels within the reference range to predict recurrence in patients with ovarian, primary peritoneal, and tubal carcinomas after complete clinical response to initial treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Included were patients diagnosed during 1998 to 2008 who fulfilled the following criteria: CA-125 levels of 35 U/mL or greater at diagnosis and recurrence, full primary treatment with a complete clinical and radiographic response, follow-up according to schedule, and at least 2 CA-125 results within the reference range during follow-up. Three criteria of rising CA-125 values within the reference range were used for the prediction of recurrence: (1) an absolute increase of 5 U/mL or higher from the nadir value at completion of chemotherapy, (2) early signal of progressive disease criterion, and (3) a rise to an absolute level of 20 U/mL or greater. RESULTS: Of 82 patients who satisfied study inclusion criteria, 58 (70.7%) had disease recurrence. Early signal of progressive disease and a rise to an absolute level of 20 U/mL or greater were highly statistically significant predictors of disease recurrence (odds ratio, 12.62 [95% confidence interval, 2.71-58.7], P = 0.0012; and odds ratio, 6.7 [95% confidence interval, 2.18-20.54], P = 0.001, respectively) and preceded recurrence by a median of 3 and 3.3 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that the early signal of progressive disease criterion and a single rise to an absolute level of 20 U/mL or greater within reference limits are highly predictive of clinical recurrence, although the latter is simpler to use. However, whether this is of practical clinical value remains to be proven.