Leveraging fine-mapping and multipopulation training data to improve cross-population polygenic risk scores.

Polygenic risk scores suffer reduced accuracy in non-European populations, exacerbating health disparities. We propose PolyPred, a method that improves cross-population polygenic risk scores by combining two predictors: a new predictor that leverages functionally informed fine-mapping to estimate causal effects (instead of tagging effects), addressing linkage disequilibrium differences, and BOLT-LMM, a published predictor. When a large training sample is available in the non-European target population, we propose PolyPred+, which further incorporates the non-European training data. We applied PolyPred to 49 diseases/traits in four UK Biobank populations using UK Biobank British training data, and observed relative improvements versus BOLT-LMM ranging from +7% in south Asians to +32% in Africans, consistent with simulations. We applied PolyPred+ to 23 diseases/traits in UK Biobank east Asians using both UK Biobank British and Biobank Japan training data, and observed improvements of +24% versus BOLT-LMM and +12% versus PolyPred. Summary statistics-based analogs of PolyPred and PolyPred+ attained similar improvements.

Utility of polygenic embryo screening for disease depends on the selection strategy.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been offered since 2019 to screen in vitro fertilization embryos for genetic liability to adult diseases, despite a lack of comprehensive modeling of expected outcomes. Here we predict, based on the liability threshold model, the expected reduction in complex disease risk following polygenic embryo screening for a single disease. A strong determinant of the potential utility of such screening is the selection strategy, a factor that has not been previously studied. When only embryos with a very high PRS are excluded, the achieved risk reduction is minimal. In contrast, selecting the embryo with the lowest PRS can lead to substantial relative risk reductions, given a sufficient number of viable embryos. We systematically examine the impact of several factors on the utility of screening, including: variance explained by the PRS, number of embryos, disease prevalence, parental PRSs, and parental disease status. We consider both relative and absolute risk reductions, as well as population-averaged and per-couple risk reductions, and also examine the risk of pleiotropic effects. Finally, we confirm our theoretical predictions by simulating 'virtual' couples and offspring based on real genomes from schizophrenia and Crohn's disease case-control studies. We discuss the assumptions and limitations of our model, as well as the potential emerging ethical concerns.

A reference map of potential determinants for the human serum metabolome.

The serum metabolome contains a plethora of biomarkers and causative agents of various diseases, some of which are endogenously produced and some that have been taken up from the environment1. The origins of specific compounds are known, including metabolites that are highly heritable2,3, or those that are influenced by the gut microbiome4, by lifestyle choices such as smoking5, or by diet6. However, the key determinants of most metabolites are still poorly understood. Here we measured the levels of 1,251 metabolites in serum samples from a unique and deeply phenotyped healthy human cohort of 491 individuals. We applied machine-learning algorithms to predict metabolite levels in held-out individuals on the basis of host genetics, gut microbiome, clinical parameters, diet, lifestyle and anthropometric measurements, and obtained statistically significant predictions for more than 76% of the profiled metabolites. Diet and microbiome had the strongest predictive power, and each explained hundreds of metabolites-in some cases, explaining more than 50% of the observed variance. We further validated microbiome-related predictions by showing a high replication rate in two geographically independent cohorts7,8 that were not available to us when we trained the algorithms. We used feature attribution analysis9 to reveal specific dietary and bacterial interactions. We further demonstrate that some of these interactions might be causal, as some metabolites that we predicted to be positively associated with bread were found to increase after a randomized clinical trial of bread intervention. Overall, our results reveal potential determinants of more than 800 metabolites, paving the way towards a mechanistic understanding of alterations in metabolites under different conditions and to designing interventions for manipulating the levels of circulating metabolites.

Prediction of acute myeloid leukaemia risk in healthy individuals.

The incidence of acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) increases with age and mortality exceeds 90% when diagnosed after age 65. Most cases arise without any detectable early symptoms and patients usually present with the acute complications of bone marrow failure1. The onset of such de novo AML cases is typically preceded by the accumulation of somatic mutations in preleukaemic haematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) that undergo clonal expansion2,3. However, recurrent AML mutations also accumulate in HSPCs during ageing of healthy individuals who do not develop AML, a phenomenon referred to as age-related clonal haematopoiesis (ARCH)4-8. Here we use deep sequencing to analyse genes that are recurrently mutated in AML to distinguish between individuals who have a high risk of developing AML and those with benign ARCH. We analysed peripheral blood cells from 95 individuals that were obtained on average 6.3 years before AML diagnosis (pre-AML group), together with 414 unselected age- and gender-matched individuals (control group). Pre-AML cases were distinct from controls and had more mutations per sample, higher variant allele frequencies, indicating greater clonal expansion, and showed enrichment of mutations in specific genes. Genetic parameters were used to derive a model that accurately predicted AML-free survival; this model was validated in an independent cohort of 29 pre-AML cases and 262 controls. Because AML is rare, we also developed an AML predictive model using a large electronic health record database that identified individuals at greater risk. Collectively our findings provide proof-of-concept that it is possible to discriminate ARCH from pre-AML many years before malignant transformation. This could in future enable earlier detection and monitoring, and may help to inform intervention.

Environment dominates over host genetics in shaping human gut microbiota.

Human gut microbiome composition is shaped by multiple factors but the relative contribution of host genetics remains elusive. Here we examine genotype and microbiome data from 1,046 healthy individuals with several distinct ancestral origins who share a relatively common environment, and demonstrate that the gut microbiome is not significantly associated with genetic ancestry, and that host genetics have a minor role in determining microbiome composition. We show that, by contrast, there are significant similarities in the compositions of the microbiomes of genetically unrelated individuals who share a household, and that over 20% of the inter-person microbiome variability is associated with factors related to diet, drugs and anthropometric measurements. We further demonstrate that microbiome data significantly improve the prediction accuracy for many human traits, such as glucose and obesity measures, compared to models that use only host genetic and environmental data. These results suggest that microbiome alterations aimed at improving clinical outcomes may be carried out across diverse genetic backgrounds.

Driver gene classification reveals a substantial overrepresentation of tumor suppressors among very large chromatin-regulating proteins.

Compiling a comprehensive list of cancer driver genes is imperative for oncology diagnostics and drug development. While driver genes are typically discovered by analysis of tumor genomes, infrequently mutated driver genes often evade detection due to limited sample sizes. Here, we address sample size limitations by integrating tumor genomics data with a wide spectrum of gene-specific properties to search for rare drivers, functionally classify them, and detect features characteristic of driver genes. We show that our approach, CAnceR geNe similarity-based Annotator and Finder (CARNAF), enables detection of potentially novel drivers that eluded over a dozen pan-cancer/multi-tumor type studies. In particular, feature analysis reveals a highly concentrated pool of known and putative tumor suppressors among the <1% of genes that encode very large, chromatin-regulating proteins. Thus, our study highlights the need for deeper characterization of very large, epigenetic regulators in the context of cancer causality.

Estimating the impact of prevention action: a simulation model of cervical cancer progression.

Cervical cancer is one of the highest occurring cancers for women in East Africa. Many studies have shown that disease occurrences and particularly the number of deaths due to the disease can be reduced significantly by screening and vaccination. East Africa and Kenya in particular are undergoing change and taking actions to reduce disease levels. However, up until today disease level in the different districts in Kenya is not known nor what be the prevalence of disease when prevention actions take place. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian model for estimating disease levels based on available partial reports and demographic information. The result is a simulation engine that provides estimations of the impact of various potential prevention actions.

Titin mutation in familial restrictive cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Familial restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM) caused by a single gene mutation is the least common of the inherited cardiomyopathies. Only a few RCM-causing mutations have been described. Most mutations causing RCM are located in sarcomere protein genes which also cause hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Other genes associated with RCM include the desmin and familial amyloidosis genes. In the present study we describe familial RCM with severe heart failure triggered by a de novo mutation in TTN, encoding the huge muscle filament protein titin. METHODS AND RESULTS: Family members underwent physical examination, ECG and Doppler echocardiogram studies. The family comprised 6 affected individuals aged 12-35 years. Linkage to candidate loci was performed, followed by gene sequencing. Candidate loci/gene analysis excluded 18 candidate genes but showed segregation with a common haplotype surrounding the TTN locus. Sequence analysis identified a de novo mutation within exon 266 of the TTN gene, resulting in the replacement of tyrosine by cysteine. p.Y7621C affects a highly conserved region in the protein within a fibronectin-3 domain, belonging to the A/I junction region of titin. No other disease-causing mutation was identified in cardiomyopathy genes by whole exome sequencing. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows, for the first time, that mutations in TTN can cause restrictive cardiomyopathy. The giant filament titin is considered to be a determinant of a resting tension of the sarcomere and this report provides genetic evidence of its crucial role in diastolic function.