Acute heart failure presentation, management, and outcomes in cancer patients: a national longitudinal study.

AIMS: Currently, little evidence exists on survival and quality of care in cancer patients presenting with acute heart failure (HF). The aim of the study is to investigate the presentation and outcomes of hospital admission with acute HF in a national cohort of patients with prior cancer. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective, population-based cohort study identified 221 953 patients admitted to a hospital in England for HF during 2012-2018 (12 867 with a breast, prostate, colorectal, or lung cancer diagnosis in the previous 10 years). We examined the impact of cancer on (i) HF presentation and in-hospital mortality, (ii) place of care, (iii) HF medication prescribing, and (iv) post-discharge survival, using propensity score weighting and model-based adjustment. Heart failure presentation was similar between cancer and non-cancer patients. A lower percentage of patients with prior cancer were cared for in a cardiology ward [-2.4% age point difference (ppd) (95% CI -3.3, -1.6)] or were prescribed angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor antagonists (ACEi/ARB) for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [-2.1 ppd (-3.3, -0.9)] than non-cancer patients. Survival after HF discharge was poor with median survival of 1.6 years in prior cancer and 2.6 years in non-cancer patients. Mortality in prior cancer patients was driven primarily by non-cancer causes (68% of post-discharge deaths). CONCLUSION: Survival in prior cancer patients presenting with acute HF was poor, with a significant proportion due to non-cancer causes of death. Despite this, cardiologists were less likely to manage cancer patients with HF. Cancer patients who develop HF were less likely to be prescribed guideline-based HF medications compared with non-cancer patients. This was particularly driven by patients with a poorer cancer prognosis.

Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients With Potentially Curable Malignancies: A National Registry Dataset Analysis.

Background: Although a common challenge for patients and clinicians, there is little population-level evidence on the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals diagnosed with potentially curable cancer. Objectives: We investigated CVD rates in patients with common potentially curable malignancies and evaluated the associations between patient and disease characteristics and CVD prevalence. Methods: The study included cancer registry patients diagnosed in England with stage I to III breast cancer, stage I to III colon or rectal cancer, stage I to III prostate cancer, stage I to IIIA non-small-cell lung cancer, stage I to IV diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and stage I to IV Hodgkin lymphoma from 2013 to 2018. Linked hospital records and national CVD databases were used to identify CVD. The rates of CVD were investigated according to tumor type, and associations between patient and disease characteristics and CVD prevalence were determined. Results: Among the 634,240 patients included, 102,834 (16.2%) had prior CVD. Men, older patients, and those living in deprived areas had higher CVD rates. Prevalence was highest for non-small-cell lung cancer (36.1%) and lowest for breast cancer (7.7%). After adjustment for age, sex, the income domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation, and Charlson comorbidity index, CVD remained higher in other tumor types compared to breast cancer patients. Conclusions: There is a significant overlap between cancer and CVD burden. It is essential to consider CVD when evaluating national and international treatment patterns and cancer outcomes.

Case-ascertainment of acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations in cancer patients: a cohort study using English linked electronic health data.

AIMS: To assess the recording and accuracy of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital admissions between two electronic health record databases within an English cancer population over time and understand the factors that affect case-ascertainment. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 112 502 hospital admissions for AMI in England 2010-2017 from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) disease registry and hospital episode statistics (HES) for 95 509 patients with a previous cancer diagnosis up to 15 years prior to admission. Cancer diagnoses were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (NCRD). We calculated the percentage of AMI admissions captured by each source and examined patient characteristics associated with source of ascertainment. Survival analysis assessed whether differences in survival between case-ascertainment sources could be explained by patient characteristics. A total of 57 265 (50.9%) AMI admissions in patients with a prior diagnosis of cancer were captured in both MINAP and HES. Patients captured in both sources were younger, more likely to have ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and had better prognosis, with lower mortality rates up to 9 years after AMI admission compared with patients captured in only one source. The percentage of admissions captured in both data sources improved over time. Cancer characteristics (site, stage, and grade) had little effect on how AMI was captured. CONCLUSION: MINAP and HES define different populations of patients with AMI. However, cancer characteristics do not substantially impact on case-ascertainment. These findings support a strategy of using multiple linked data sources for observational cardio-oncological research into AMI.

Impact on survival of modelling increased surgical resection rates in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer and cardiovascular comorbidities: a VICORI study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) comorbidity on resection rates and survival for patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is unclear. We explored if CVD comorbidity explained surgical resection rate variation and the impact on survival if resection rates increased. METHODS: Cancer registry data consisted of English patients diagnosed with NSCLC from 2012 to 2016. Linked hospital records identified CVD comorbidities. We investigated resection rate variation by geographical region using funnel plots; resection and death rates using time-to-event analysis. We modelled an increased propensity for resection in regions with the lowest resection rates and estimated survival change. RESULTS: Among 57,373 patients with Stage 1-3A NSCLC, resection rates varied considerably between regions. Patients with CVD comorbidity had lower resection rates and higher mortality rates. CVD comorbidity explained only 1.9% of the variation in resection rates. For every 100 CVD comorbid patients, increasing resection in regions with the lowest rates from 24 to 44% would result in 16 more patients resected and alive after 1 year and two fewer deaths overall. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in regional resection rate is not explained by CVD comorbidities. Increasing resection in patients with CVD comorbidity to the levels of the highest resecting region would increase 1-year survival.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9.

BACKGROUND: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. METHODS: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. RESULTS: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Health indicator recording in UK primary care electronic health records: key implications for handling missing data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical databases are increasingly used for health research; many of them capture information on common health indicators including height, weight, blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and alcohol consumption. However, these are often not recorded on a regular basis; missing data are ubiquitous. We described the recording of health indicators in UK primary care and evaluated key implications for handling missing data. METHODS: We examined the recording of health indicators in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) UK primary care database over time, by demographic variables (age and sex) and chronic diseases (diabetes, myocardial infarction, and stroke). Using weight as an example, we fitted linear and logistic regression models to examine the associations of weight measurements and the probability of having weight recorded with individuals' demographic characteristics and chronic diseases. RESULTS: In total, 6,345,851 individuals aged 18-99 years contributed data to THIN between 2000 and 2015. Women aged 18-65 years were more likely than men of the same age to have health indicators recorded; this gap narrowed after age 65. About 60-80% of individuals had their height, weight, blood pressure, smoking status, and alcohol consumption recorded during the first year of registration. In the years following registration, these proportions fell to 10%-40%. Individuals with chronic diseases were more likely to have health indicators recorded, particularly after the introduction of a General Practitioner incentive scheme. Individuals' demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were associated with both observed weight measurements and missingness in weight. CONCLUSION: Missing data in common health indicators will affect statistical analysis in health research studies. A single analysis of primary care data using the available information alone may be misleading. Multiple imputation of missing values accounting for demographic characteristics and disease status is recommended but should be considered and implemented carefully. Sensitivity analysis exploring alternative assumptions for missing data should also be evaluated.

Association of the PHACTR1/EDN1 Genetic Locus With Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is an increasingly recognized cause of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) afflicting predominantly younger to middle-aged women. Observational studies have reported a high prevalence of extracoronary vascular anomalies, especially fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) and a low prevalence of coincidental cases of atherosclerosis. PHACTR1/EDN1 is a genetic risk locus for several vascular diseases, including FMD and coronary artery disease, with the putative causal noncoding variant at the rs9349379 locus acting as a potential enhancer for the endothelin-1 (EDN1) gene. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to test the association between the rs9349379 genotype and SCAD. METHODS: Results from case control studies from France, United Kingdom, United States, and Australia were analyzed to test the association with SCAD risk, including age at first event, pregnancy-associated SCAD (P-SCAD), and recurrent SCAD. RESULTS: The previously reported risk allele for FMD (rs9349379-A) was associated with a higher risk of SCAD in all studies. In a meta-analysis of 1,055 SCAD patients and 7,190 controls, the odds ratio (OR) was 1.67 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50 to 1.86) per copy of rs9349379-A. In a subset of 491 SCAD patients, the OR estimate was found to be higher for the association with SCAD in patients without FMD (OR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.53 to 2.33) than in SCAD cases with FMD (OR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.99). There was no effect of genotype on age at first event, P-SCAD, or recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The first genetic risk factor for SCAD was identified in the largest study conducted to date for this condition. This genetic link may contribute to the clinical overlap between SCAD and FMD.

Does pattern mixture modelling reduce bias due to informative attrition compared to fitting a mixed effects model to the available cases or data imputed using multiple imputation?: a simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Informative attrition occurs when the reason participants drop out from a study is associated with the study outcome. Analysing data with informative attrition can bias longitudinal study inferences. Approaches exist to reduce bias when analysing longitudinal data with monotone missingness (once participants drop out they do not return). However, findings may differ when using these approaches to analyse longitudinal data with non-monotone missingness. METHODS: Different approaches to reduce bias due to informative attrition in non-monotone longitudinal data were compared. To achieve this aim, we simulated data from a Whitehall II cohort epidemiological study, which used the slope coefficients from a linear mixed effects model to investigate the association between smoking status at baseline and subsequent decline in cognition scores. Participants with lower cognitive scores were thought to be more likely to drop out. By using a simulation study, a range of scenarios using distributions of variables which exist in real data were compared. Informative attrition that would introduce a known bias to the simulated data was specified and the estimates from a mixed effects model with random intercept and slopes when fitted to: available cases; data imputed using multiple imputation (MI); imputed data adjusted using pattern mixture modelling (PMM) were compared. The two-fold fully conditional specification MI approach, previously validated for non-monotone longitudinal data under ignorable missing data assumption, was used. However, MI may not reduce bias because informative attrition is non-ignorable missing. Therefore, PMM was applied to reduce the bias, usually unknown, by adjusting the values imputed with MI by a fixed value equal to the introduced bias. RESULTS: With highly correlated repeated outcome measures, the slope coefficients from a mixed effects model were found to have least bias when fitted to available cases. However, for moderately correlated outcome measurements, the slope coefficients from fitting a mixed effects model to data adjusted using PMM were least biased but still underestimated the true coefficients. CONCLUSIONS: PMM may potentially reduce bias in studies analysing longitudinal data with suspected informative attrition and moderately correlated repeated outcome measurements. Including additional auxiliary variables in the imputation model may also reduce any remaining bias.

Assessment of an incentivised scheme to provide annual health checks in primary care for adults with intellectual disability: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: People with intellectual disabilities (ID) have many comorbidities but experience inequities in access to health care. National Health Service England uses an opt-in incentive scheme to encourage annual health checks of patients with ID in primary care. We investigated whether the first 3 years of the programme had improved health care of people with ID. METHODS: We did a longitudinal cohort study that used data from The Health Improvement Network primary care database. We did multivariate logistic regression to assess associations between various characteristics and whether or not practices had opted in to the incentivised scheme. FINDINGS: We assessed data for 8692 patients from 222 incentivised practices and those for 918 patients in 48 non-incentivised practices. More blood tests (eg, total cholesterol, odds ratio [OR] 1·88, 95% CI 1·47-2·41, p<0·0001) general health measurements (eg, smoking status, 6·0, 4·10-8·79, p<0·0001), specific health assessments (eg, hearing, 24·0, 11·5-49·9, p<0·0001), and medication reviews (2·23, 1·68-2·97, p<0·0001) were done in incentivised than in non-incentivised practices, and more health action plans (6·15, 1·41-26·9, p=0·0156) and secondary care referrals (1·47, 1·05-2·05, p=0·0256) were made. Identification rates were higher in incentivised practices for thyroid disorder (OR 2·72, 95% CI 1·09-6·81, p=0·0323), gastrointestinal disorders (1·94, 1·03-3·65, p=0·0390), and obesity (2·49, 1·76-3·53, p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Targeted annual health checks for people with ID in primary care could reduce health inequities. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

The association between deprivation and hospital mortality for admissions to critical care units in England.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have investigated the association between level of social deprivation and acute hospital outcome for admissions to adult general critical care units. It is important to be aware if an association exists because risk prediction models do not adjust for deprivation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Deprivation was measured using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2004, developed using 2001 census data in England. Eighty-four thousand four hundred twenty-three admissions to 138 adult general critical care units in England were selected from the Case Mix Programme Database from 1 year before to 1 year after the census date and linked to the IMD using postcodes. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate a possible association between quintile of IMD and acute hospital mortality. RESULTS: As deprivation increased, acute hospital mortality also increased (P < .001). This association remained after adjusting for age, sex, acute severity, medial history, source of admission, and reason for admission to critical care (adjusted odds ratio for most vs least deprived quintile, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: There is an association between increasing deprivation and increasing risk of mortality for admissions to adult general critical care unit units in England. Further research is required to identify other unmeasured potential confounders (eg, smoking, alcohol consumption) as possible explanations for this association.

Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.

INTRODUCTION: This report describes the case mix and outcomes of patients with oesophageal cancer admitted to adult critical care units following elective oesophageal surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. METHODS: Admissions to critical care following elective oesophageal surgery for malignancy were identified using data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database. Information on admissions between December 1995 and September 2007 were extracted and the association between in-hospital mortality and patient characteristics on admission to critical care was assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. The performance of three prognostic models (Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the ICNARC physiology score) was also evaluated. RESULTS: Between 1995 and 2007, there were 7227 admissions to 181 critical care units following oesophageal surgery for malignancy. Overall mortality in critical care was 4.4% and in-hospital mortality was 11%, although both declined steadily over time. Eight hundred and seventy-three (12.2%) patients were readmitted to critical care, most commonly for respiratory complications (49%) and surgical complications (25%). Readmitted patients had a critical care unit mortality of 24.7% and in-hospital mortality of 33.9%. Overall in-hospital mortality was associated with patient age, and various physiological measurements on admission to critical care (partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2):fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) ratio, lowest arterial pH, mechanical ventilation, serum albumin, urea and creatinine). The three prognostic models evaluated performed poorly in measures of discrimination, calibration and goodness of fit. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery for oesophageal malignancy continues to be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age and organ dysfunction in the early postoperative period are associated with an increased risk of death. Postoperative serum albumin is confirmed as an additional prognostic factor. More work is required to determine how this knowledge may improve clinical management.

Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population. METHODS: A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival). RESULTS: There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration.

Dermatological conditions in intensive care: a secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme database.

INTRODUCTION: Dermatology is usually thought of as an outpatient specialty with low mortality, however some skin conditions require intensive care. These conditions are relatively rare and hence are best studied using clinical databases or disease registries. We interrogated a large, high-quality clinical database from a national audit of adult intensive care units (ICUs), with the aim of identifying and characterising patients with dermatological conditions requiring admission to ICU. METHODS: Data were extracted for 476,224 admissions to 178 ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland participating in the Case Mix Programme over the time period December 1995 to September 2006. We identified admissions with dermatological conditions from the primary and secondary reasons for admission to ICU. RESULTS: A total of 2,245 dermatological admissions were identified. Conditions included infectious conditions (e.g. cutaneous cellulitis, necrotising fasciitis), dermatological malignancies, and acute skin failure (e.g. toxic epidermal necrolysis, Stevens-Johnson syndrome and autoimmune blistering diseases). These represent 0.47% of all ICU admissions, or approximately 2.1 dermatological admissions per ICU per year. Overall mortality was 28.1% in the ICU and 40.0% in hospital. Length of stay in intensive care was longest for those with acute skin failure (median 4.7 days for ICU survivors and 5.1 days for ICU non-survivors). CONCLUSION: We have identified patients who not only require intensive care, but also dermatological care. Such patients have high mortality rates and long ICU stays within the spectrum of the UK ICU population, similar to other acute medical conditions. This highlights the importance of skin failure as a distinct entity comparable to other organ system failures.