Impaired lung function and lung cancer risk in 461 183 healthy individuals: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It has been known that smoking and various lung diseases including lung cancer can cause lung function impairment. However, the impact of different types of lung function impairments, such as preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) and airflow obstruction (AO), on the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in both general and never-smoker populations remains unclear. We wished to examine the effect of lung function impairments on lung cancer risks. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study (1 January 1994 to 31 December 2017) of individuals from a health surveillance programme in Taiwan who underwent baseline spirometry tests at the entry point. PRISm was defined as an FEV1/FVC (forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity) ratio >0.7 and FEV1 <0.8, while AO was defined as an FEV1/FVC ratio <0.7. Cox proportional hazards models and cubic spline curves were used to examine the associations between lung function impairments and lung cancer risks. RESULTS: The study included 461,183 individuals, of whom 14.3% had PRISm and 7.9% had AO. A total of 4038 cases of lung cancer and 3314 lung cancer-related deaths were identified during the 23 years of follow-up. Individuals with PRISm and AO exhibited a higher risk of lung cancer incidence and mortality compared with those with normal lung function. The adjusted HRs and 95% CIs were 1.14 (1.03 to 1.26) and 1.23 (1.10 to 1.37) in the overall cohort, and 1.08 (0.93 to 1.24), and 1.23 (1.05 to 1.45) in the never-smoker cohort. The risks of both developing and dying of lung cancer increased with the severity levels of lung function impairments and lower FEV1 values. CONCLUSION: Impaired lung function is associated with increased risks of developing lung cancer and subsequent mortality. The study highlights the importance of considering lung function in lung cancer screening for better candidate selection.

Occupational Sitting Time, Leisure Physical Activity, and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality.

Importance: For the first time, the 2020 World Health Organization guidelines on physical activity recommended reducing sedentary behaviors owing to their health consequences. Less is known on the specific association of prolonged occupational sitting with health, especially in the context of low physical activity engagement. Objective: To quantify health risks associated with prolonged occupational sitting and to determine whether there is a certain threshold of physical activity that may attenuate it. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included participants in a health surveillance program in Taiwan who were followed-up between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sitting, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) habits, lifestyle, and metabolic parameters were collected. Data analysis was performed in December 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: The all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality associated with 3 occupational sitting volumes (mostly sitting, alternating sitting and nonsitting, and mostly nonsitting) were analyzed applying multivariable Cox regression models to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for all participants and by subgroups, including 5 LTPA levels and a personal activity intelligence (PAI)-oriented metric. Deaths occurring within the initial 2 years of follow-up were excluded to prevent reverse causality. Results: The total cohort included 481 688 participants (mean [SD] age, 39.3 [12.8] years; 256 077 women [53.2%]). The study recorded 26 257 deaths during a mean (SD) follow-up period of 12.85 (5.67) years. After adjusting for sex, age, education, smoking, drinking, and body mass index, individuals who mostly sat at work had a 16% higher all-cause mortality risk (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.11-1.20) and a 34% increased mortality risk from CVD (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.22-1.46) compared with those who were mostly nonsitting at work. Individuals alternating sitting and nonsitting at work did not experience increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with individuals mostly nonsitting at work (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.97-1.05). For individuals mostly sitting at work and engaging in low (15-29 minutes per day) or no (<15 minutes per day) LTPA, an increase in LTPA by 15 and 30 minutes per day, respectively, was associated with a reduction in mortality to a level similar to that of inactive individuals who mostly do not sit at work. In addition, individuals with a PAI score exceeding 100 experienced a notable reduction in the elevated mortality risk associated with prolonged occupational sitting. Conclusions and Relevance: As part of modern lifestyles, prolonged occupational sitting is considered normal and has not received due attention, even though its deleterious effect on health outcomes has been demonstrated. In this study, alternating between sitting and nonsitting at work, as well as an extra 15 to 30 minutes per day of LTPA or achieving a PAI score greater than 100, attenuated the harms of prolonged occupational sitting. Emphasizing the associated harms and suggesting workplace system changes may help society to denormalize this common behavior, similar to the process of denormalizing smoking.

Uncovering a dose-response relationship between positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Its association with non-CRC mortality has been overlooked. Given the quantitative FIT values, its dose-response relationships with different causes of deaths and years of life shortened were assessed. METHODS: This retrospective study included 546,214 adults aged ≥ 20 who attended a health surveillance program from 1994 to 2017 and were followed up until the end of 2020. FIT ≥ 20 µg Hb/g was defined as positive. The Cox model was used to assess adjusted hazard ratios (aHR). RESULTS: Positive FIT was associated with increased all-cause mortality (aHR: 1.34, 95 % CI: 1.25-1.44) and all-cancer mortality (aHR: 1.71, 95 % CI: 1.55-1.89), with a reduction of life expectancy by 4 years. The association remained even with CRC excluded. With each 10 µg Hb/g increase in FIT above 20 µg Hb/g, life expectancy was reduced by one year, and mortality increased by 4 %. About 18.6 % of deaths with positive FIT were attributed to cardiovascular disease (CVD), followed by CRC (13.5 %) and upper gastrointestinal (GI) cancers (4.5 %). The all-cause mortality rate after excluding CRC for positive FIT was 3.56/1,000 person-year, comparable to the all-cause mortality rate of 3.69/1,000 person-year for hypertension. CONCLUSION: Positive FIT was associated with increased mortality in a dose-response manner and shortened life expectancy by 4 years, an overlooked risk comparable to hypertension, even with CRC excluded. After a negative colonoscopy, subjects with positive FIT should undergo a workup on CVD risk factors and look for other upper GI cancers.

6-Year trajectory of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and mortality risk among individuals with normal FPG at baseline: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Higher fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality; however, the associations between long-term FPG trajectory groups and mortality were unclear, especially among individuals with a normal FPG level at the beginning. The aims of this study were to examine the associations of FPG trajectories with the risk of mortality and identify modifiable lifestyle factors related to these trajectories. METHODS: We enrolled 50,919 individuals aged ≥ 20 years old, who were free of diabetes at baseline, in the prospective MJ cohort. All participants completed at least four FPG measurements within 6 years after enrollment and were followed until December 2011. FPG trajectories were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the associations of FPG trajectories with mortality, adjusting for age, sex, marital status, education level, occupation, smoking, drinking, physical activity, body mass index, baseline FPG, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cardiovascular disease or stroke, and cancer. Associations between baseline lifestyle factors and FPG trajectories were evaluated using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified three FPG trajectories as stable (n = 32,481), low-increasing (n = 17,164), and high-increasing (n = 1274). Compared to the stable group, both the low-increasing and high-increasing groups had higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18 (95% CI 0.99-1.40) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.09-2.13), respectively), especially among those with hypertension. Compared to participants with 0 to 1 healthy lifestyle factor, those with 6 healthy lifestyle factors were more likely to be in the stable group (ORlow-increasing = 0.61, 95% CI 0.51-0.73; ORhigh-increasing = 0.20, 95% CI 0.13-0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with longitudinally increasing FPG had a higher risk of mortality even if they had a normal FPG at baseline. Adopting healthy lifestyles may prevent individuals from transitioning into increasing trajectories.

Risk of Death Associated With Reversion From Prediabetes to Normoglycemia and the Role of Modifiable Risk Factors.

Importance: Individuals with prediabetes have a higher risk of death than healthy individuals. However, previous findings have suggested that individuals with reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia may not have a lower risk of death compared with individuals with persistent prediabetes. Objectives: To investigate the associations between changes in prediabetes status and risk of death and to elucidate the roles of modifiable risk factors in these associations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based prospective cohort study used data from 45 782 participants with prediabetes from the Taiwan MJ Cohort Study who were recruited between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2007. Participants were followed up from the second clinical visit to December 31, 2011, with a median (IQR) follow-up of 8 (5-12) years. Participants were categorized into 3 groups according to changes in their prediabetes status within a 3-year period after initial enrollment: reversion to normoglycemia, persistent prediabetes, and progression to diabetes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between changes in prediabetes status at baseline (ie, the second clinical visit) and risk of death. Data analysis was performed between September 18, 2021, and October 24, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality, and cancer-related mortality. Results: Of 45 782 participants with prediabetes (62.9% male; 100% Asian; mean [SD] age, 44.6 [12.8] years), 1786 (3.9%) developed diabetes and 17 021 (37.2%) reverted to normoglycemia. Progression from prediabetes to diabetes within a 3-year period was associated with higher risks of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.25-1.79) and CVD-related death (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.12-2.33) compared with persistent prediabetes, while reversion to normoglycemia was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause death (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.88-1.10), cancer-related death (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.77-1.08), or CVD-related death (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.75-1.25). Among individuals who were physically active, reversion to normoglycemia was associated with a lower risk of all-cause death (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.59-0.87) compared with those with persistent prediabetes who were physically inactive. Among individuals with obesity, risk of death varied between those who experienced reversion to normoglycemia (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.82-1.49) and those who had persistent prediabetes (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.10-1.62). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, although reversion from prediabetes to normoglycemia within a 3-year period did not mitigate the overall risk of death compared with persistent prediabetes, risk of death associated with reversion to normoglycemia varied based on whether individuals were physically active or had obesity. These findings highlight the importance of lifestyle modification among those with prediabetes status.

Associations of Prolonged Occupational Sitting with the Spectrum of Kidney Disease: Results from a Cohort of a Half-Million Asian Adults.

BACKGROUND: Kidney diseases are viewed as continuously progressing diseases from microalbuminuria and chronic kidney disease (CKD), to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and its mortality including deaths. The report on the association between prolonged sitting and kidney diseases is limited. METHODS: We examined a cohort of 455,506 participants in a screening program in Taiwan conducted between 1996 and 2017. Data on occupational sedentary behavior and physical activity were collected with a standardized questionnaire. The outcomes of ESRD and death were identified by linking with the Catastrophic Illness Dataset and Cause of Death Data. The association between prolonged sitting and CKD, the incidence of ESRD, and death were assessed using logistic regression models to compute odds ratios (ORs) and Cox proportional hazards models for hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: More than half of the participants, i.e., 265,948 (58.4%), were categorized as "prolonged sitting" during their work. During a median of 13 years of follow-up, we identified 2227 individuals undergoing dialysis and 25,671 deaths. Prolonged occupational sitting was significantly associated with a higher risk of CKD (OR: 1.26, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 1.31), ESRD (HR: 1.19, 95% CI 1.03, 1.38), and kidney-specific mortality (HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.07, 1.91) compared to mostly standing participants after controlling for physical activity and other risk factors. Inactive prolonged sitting carries a significantly higher risk of ESRD than physically active mostly standing participants (HR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.04, 1.73). However, active prolonged sitting decreased the risk of ESRD (HR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.79, 1.34) compared to inactive prolonged sitting. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that prolonged occupational sitting is associated with a greater risk of the spectrum of kidney disease, proteinuria, CKD, dialysis (ESRD), and mortality for all causes and kidney diseases. Physical activity, even at a minimal level of 15 min/day (90 min/week) of moderate-intensity exercise, was associated with a reduction in these risks.

Association of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages and Cardiovascular Diseases Mortality in a Large Young Cohort of Nearly 300,000 Adults (Age 20-39).

(1) Background: The association of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in younger adults (age 20−39) is rarely mentioned in the literature. Younger adults are less vulnerable to CVDs, but they tend to consume more SSBs. This prospective study aimed to assess the association between CVD mortality and SSBs in younger adults between 1994 and 2017. (2) Methods: The cohort enrolled 288,747 participants consisting of 139,413 men and 148,355 women, with a mean age 30.6 ± 4.8 years, from a health surveillance program. SSBs referred to any drink with real sugar added, such as fructose corn syrup or sucrose. One serving of SSB contains about 150 Kcal of sugar in 12 oz of drink. Cox models were used to estimate the mortality risk. (3) Results: There were 391 deaths from CVDs in the younger adults, and the positive association with CVD mortality started when SSB intake was ≥2 servings/day (HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.16−2.17). With mortalities from diabetes and kidney disease added to CVDs, the so-called expanded CVD mortality risk was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.11−2.01). By excluding CVD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and smoking), the CVD mortality risk increased to 2.48 (95% CI: 1.33−4.62). The dose−response relationship persisted (p < 0.05 for trend) in every model above. (4) Conclusions: Higher intake of SSBs (≥2 servings/day) was associated with increased CVD mortality in younger adults. The younger adults (age 20−39) with SSB intake ≥2 servings/day had a 50% increase in CVD mortality in our study, and the mortality risk increased up to 2.5 times for those without CVD risk factors. The dose−response relationship between the quantity of SSB intake and the mortality risk of CVD in younger adults discourages SSB intake for the prevention of CVD mortality.

Development and Validation of Prediction Models of Adverse Kidney Outcomes in the Population With and Without Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To predict adverse kidney outcomes for use in optimizing medical management and clinical trial design. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this meta-analysis of individual participant data, 43 cohorts (N = 1,621,817) from research studies, electronic medical records, and clinical trials with global representation were separated into development and validation cohorts. Models were developed and validated within strata of diabetes mellitus (presence or absence) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; ≥60 or <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) to predict a composite of ≥40% decline in eGFR or kidney failure (i.e., receipt of kidney replacement therapy) over 2-3 years. RESULTS: There were 17,399 and 24,591 events in development and validation cohorts, respectively. Models predicting ≥40% eGFR decline or kidney failure incorporated age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication use, history of heart failure, coronary heart disease, atrial fibrillation, smoking status, and BMI, and, in those with diabetes, hemoglobin A1c, insulin use, and oral diabetes medication use. The median C-statistic was 0.774 (interquartile range [IQR] = 0.753, 0.782) in the diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.769 (IQR = 0.758, 0.808) in the diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts; 0.740 (IQR = 0.717, 0.763) in the no diabetes and higher-eGFR validation cohorts; and 0.750 (IQR = 0.731, 0.785) in the no diabetes and lower-eGFR validation cohorts. Incorporating the previous 2-year eGFR slope minimally improved model performance, and then only in the higher-eGFR cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Novel prediction equations for a decline of ≥40% in eGFR can be applied successfully for use in the general population in persons with and without diabetes with higher or lower eGFR.

The effects of modest drinking on life expectancy and mortality risks: a population-based cohort study.

Modest drinking has been repeatedly discussed in scientific papers as protective against certain diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases, but in most cases, alcohol worsens health conditions, especially when consumed at high risk levels. The complexity of the risk relationship between alcohol and health conditions has confused clinicians as to whether it should be recommended. The study aims to balance the risks and benefits of modest drinking. This retrospective cohort study of 430,016 adults recruited from a standard health-screening program since 1994, with 11,031 deaths identified as of 2008. Drinking distinguished "modest drinker" (no more than one drink a day) from "regular drinker". Mortality risks including all-cause mortality and diseases-specific mortality with hazard ratio (HR) were calculated by adjusting for 15 confounders. Life table was used for life expectancy. Risk predictors were subjected to Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to identify significant predictors in multivariate models and life expectancy analysis. Nearly one out of 4 males (23%) was a modest drinker, who gained 0.94 year (95% CI 0.65-1.23 year) in life over non-drinker and had 8% reduction in adjusted all-cause mortality (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.97). In contrast, regular drinkers had 43% increase in overall mortality (HR 1.43, CI 1.35-1.52) and shortened life by 6.9 years (95% CI 6.6-7.1 years). As most drinkers also smoked, 59% in modest and 75% in regular, the combined effect shortened life by 2.0 years (95% CI 1.6-2.4 years) in modest drinker and 10.3 years (95% CI 9.8-10.7 years) in regular drinker. Cancer were increased in modest drinkers for oral (HR 2.35, CI 1.38-4.01) and esophageal (HR 3.83, CI 1.90-7.73) cancer. The gain of one year by modest drinkers was erased by a two to fourfold increase in oral and esophageal cancer and that drinking beyond modest amount led to a large loss of life expectancy. Given that drinkers are prone to cross the line of drinking, clinicians should balance the risks and benefits of drinking, as well as the understanding of whether the patient is at risk for addiction.

"Sugar-Sweetened Beverages" Is an Independent Risk From Pancreatic Cancer: Based on Half a Million Asian Cohort Followed for 25 Years.

Although the link between sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and pancreatic cancer has been suggested for its insulin-stimulating connection, most epidemiological studies showed inconclusive relationship. Whether the result was limited by sample size is explored. This prospective study followed 491,929 adults, consisting of 235,427 men and 256,502 women (mean age: 39.9, standard deviation: 13.2), from a health surveillance program and there were 523 pancreatic cancer deaths between 1994 and 2017. The individual identification numbers of the cohort were matched with the National Death file for mortality, and Cox models were used to assess the risk. The amount of SSB intake was recorded based on the average consumption in the month before interview by a structured questionnaire. We classified the amount of SSB intake into 4 categories: 0-<0.5 serving/day, ≥0.5-<1 serving per day, ≥1-<2 servings per day, and ≥2 servings per day. One serving was defined as equivalent to 12 oz and contained 35 g added sugar. We used the age and the variables at cohort enrolment as the reported risks of pancreatic cancers. The cohort was divided into 3 age groups, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60. We found young people (age <40) had higher prevalence and frequency of sugar-sweetened beverages than the elderly. Those consuming 2 servings/day had a 50% increase in pancreatic cancer mortality (HR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.08-2.24) for the total cohort, but a 3-fold increase (HR: 3.09, 95% CI: 1.44-6.62) for the young. The risk started at 1 serving every other day, with a dose-response relationship. The association of SSB intake of ≥2 servings/day with pancreatic cancer mortality among the total cohort remained significant after excluding those who smoke or have diabetes (HR: 2.12, 97% CI: 1.26-3.57), are obese (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.08-2.30), have hypertension (HR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.20-3.00), or excluding who died within 3 years after enrollment (HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.15-2.45). Risks remained in the sensitivity analyses, implying its independent nature. We concluded that frequent drinking of SSB increased pancreatic cancer in adults, with highest risk among young people.

Association of Computed Tomographic Screening Promotion With Lung Cancer Overdiagnosis Among Asian Women.

IMPORTANCE: As smoking continues to decline in many developed countries, the proportion of lung cancers in nonsmokers will rise. This shift may create substantial pressure to further expand lung cancer screening to lower-risk groups. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of lung cancer incidence with the promotion of screening in a largely nonsmoking population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based ecological cohort study of stage-specific lung cancer incidence used the Taiwan Cancer Registry to identify women diagnosed with lung cancer from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2018. Smoking prevalence among Taiwanese women has been less than 5% since 1980. Data were analyzed from February 13, 2020, to November 10, 2021. EXPOSURES: Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer, initiated during the early 2000s. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Change in stage-specific lung cancer incidence. An effective cancer screening program will not only increase the incidence of early-stage cancer but also decrease the incidence of cancer presenting at a late stage. RESULTS: A total of 57 898 women were diagnosed with lung cancer in a population of approximately 12 million Taiwanese women. After the introduction of LDCT screening, the incidence of early-stage (stages 0-I) lung cancer in women increased more than 6-fold, from 2.3 to 14.4 per 100 000 population (absolute difference, 12.1 [95% CI, 11.3-12.8]) from 2004 to 2018. There was no change, however, in the incidence of late-stage (stages II-IV) lung cancer, from 18.7 to 19.3 per 100 000 (absolute difference, 0.6 [95% CI, -0.5 to 1.7]). Because the additional 12.1 per 100 000 early-stage cancers were not accompanied by a concomitant decline in late-stage cancers, virtually all the additional cancers detected represent overdiagnosis. Despite stable mortality, 5-year survival more than doubled from 2004 to 2013, from 18% to 40%, which is arguably the highest lung cancer survival rate in the world. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This population-based ecological cohort study found that low-dose computed tomographic screening of mostly nonsmoking Asian women was associated with considerable lung cancer overdiagnosis. Five-year survival is biased by the increased LDCT detection of indolent early-stage lung cancers. Unless randomized trials can demonstrate some value to low-risk groups, LDCT screening should remain targeted only to heavy smokers.

The ability of physical activity in reducing mortality risks and cardiovascular loading and in extending life expectancy in patients with COPD.

For chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the role of physical activity in reducing COPD mortality and heart loading and in extending life expectancy remains unclear. Participants in comprehensive medical screening were recruited with spirometry on everyone. We analyzed physical activity volume calculated from intensity, duration and frequency of self-reported exercise history. Deaths were identified from the National Death File. The impacts of physical activity on mortality, heart rate and life expectancy were analyzed. Among the cohort of 483,603 adults, 32,535 had spirometry-determined COPD, indicating an adjusted national prevalence of 11.4% (male) and 9.8% (female). On the average, COPD increased all-cause mortality with a hazard ratio of 1.44 and loss of 6.0 years in life expectancy. Almost two thirds (65%) of the causes of deaths were extra-pulmonary, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and kidney diseases. In addition, COPD was associated with increases in heart rate proportionate to its severity, which led to higher mortality. Participants with COPD who were fully active physically could reduce mortality and have improved heart rates as compared with those without physical activity. In addition, their life expectancy could be extended close to those of the no COPD but inactive cohort. Fully active physical activity can help patients with COPD overcome most of the mortality risks, decrease heart rate, and achieve a life expectancy close to that of patients without COPD. The effectiveness of physical activity on COPD is facilitated by its systemic nature beyond lung disease.

Converting health risks into loss of life years - a paradigm shift in clinical risk communication.

For facilitating risk communication in clinical management, such a ratio-based measure becomes easier to understand if expressed as a loss of life expectancy. The cohort, consisting of 543,410 adults in Taiwan, was recruited between 1994 and 2008. Health risks included lifestyle, biomarkers, and chronic diseases. A total of 18,747 deaths were identified. The Chiang's life table method was used to estimate a loss of life expectancy. We used Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for health risks. The increased mortality from cardio-metabolic risks such as high cholesterol (HR=1.10), hypertension (HR=1.48) or diabetes (HR=2.02) can be converted into a loss of 1.0, 4.4, and 8.9 years in life expectancy, respectively. The top 20 of the 30 risks were associated with a loss of 4 to 10 years of life expectancy, with 70% of the cohort having at least two such risk factors. Smoking, drinking, and physical inactivity each had 5-7 years loss. Individuals with diabetes or an elevated white count had a loss of 7-10 years, while prolonged sitting, the most prevalent risk factor, had a loss of 2-4 years. Those with diabetes (8.9 years) and proteinuria (9.1 years) present at the same time showed a loss of 16.2 years, a number close to the sum of each risk. Health risks, expressed as life expectancy loss, could facilitate risk communication. The paradigm shift in expressing risk intensity can help set public health priorities scientifically to promote a focus on the most important ones in primary care.

Smoking and nasopharyngeal cancer: individual data meta-analysis of six prospective studies on 334 935 men.

BACKGROUND: The role of smoking in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains uncertain, especially in endemic regions. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to investigate the associations between smoking exposure and risk of NPC. METHODS: We obtained individual participant data of 334 935 male participants from six eligible population-based cohorts in NPC-endemic regions, including two each in Guangzhou and Taiwan, and one each in Hong Kong and Singapore. We used one- and two-stage approaches IPD meta-analysis and Cox proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of NPC for smoking exposure adjusting for age and drinking status. RESULTS: During 2 961 315 person-years of follow-up, 399 NPC evens were ascertained. Risks of NPC were higher in ever versus never smokers (HRone-stage = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.07-1.63, P = 0.0088; HRtwo-stage = 1.27, 1.01-1.60, 0.04). These positive associations appeared to be stronger in ever smokers who consumed 16+ cigarettes/day (HRone-stage = 1.67, 95% CI = 1.29-2.16, P = 0.0001), and in those who started smoking at age younger than 16 (2.16, 1.33-3.50, 0.0103), with dose-response relationships (P-values for trend = 0.0028 and 0.0103, respectively). Quitting (versus daily smoking) showed a small reduced risk (stopped for 5+ years: HRone-stage = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.60-1.39, P = 0.66; for former smokers: HRtwo-stage = 0.84, 0.61-1.14, 0.26). CONCLUSIONS: This first IPD meta-analysis from six prospective cohorts in endemic regions has provided robust observational evidence that smoking increased NPC risk in men. NPC should be added to the 12-16 cancer sites known to be tobacco-related cancers. Strong tobacco control policies, preventing young individuals from smoking, would reduce NPC risk in endemic regions.

Are e-cigarettes reviving the popularity of conventional smoking among Taiwanese male adolescents? A time-trend population-based analysis for 2004-2017.

INTRODUCTION: In Taiwan, national tobacco use surveys show that e-cigarette use has increased since 2014 among youth, while, at the same time, conventional cigarette smoking has continuously decreased. The purpose of this study is to examine whether the increased popularity of e-cigarettes has undermined this favourable declining trend for cigarette smoking. METHODS: We examined conventional cigarette and e-cigarette prevalence among male high school students (aged 16-18 years) and adults from 2004 to 2017, using data from cross-sectional nationally representative surveys. Applying interrupted time series analysis, we assessed whether there was a change in trend in 2014, when e-cigarette use started to gain popularity from long-term trends in prior years (2004-2013). RESULTS: E-cigarette use prevalence increased from 2.5% in 2014 to 6.4% in 2017 among male high school students but was negligible among male adults, declining from 1.4% in 2015 to 0.8% in 2017. The annual relative decline in the cigarette smoking rate after e-cigarettes started to gain popularity was greater (-10%) than the long-term trend (-2%) among high school students. Among adults, the change in trend over time after e-cigarettes started to gain popularity was not significant (ie, not significantly different from 0). CONCLUSIONS: The increased popularity of e-cigarettes since 2014 is associated with a greater decline in youth smoking, compared with previous years. On the contrary, e-cigarette use has remained very low among Taiwanese male adults and no additional impact on the conventional smoking trend is found.

Smoking Paradox in Stroke Survivors?: Uncovering the Truth by Interpreting 2 Sets of Data.

Background and Purpose- The observation that smokers with stroke could have better outcome than nonsmokers led to the term "smoking paradox." The controversy of such a complex claim has not been fully settled, even though different case mix was noted. Analyses were conducted on 2 independent data sets to evaluate and determine whether such a paradox truly exists. Methods- Taiwan Stroke Registry with 88 925 stroke cases, and MJ cohort with 541 047 adults participating in a medical screening program with 1630 stroke deaths developed during 15 years of follow-up (1994-2008). Primary outcome for stroke registry was functional independence at 3 months by modified Rankin Scale score ≤2, for individuals classified by National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission. For MJ cohort, mortality risk by smoking status or by stroke history was assessed by hazard ratio. Results- A >11-year age difference in stroke incidence was found between smokers and nonsmokers, with a median age of 60.2 years for current smokers and 71.6 years for nonsmokers. For smokers, favorable outcome in mortality and in functional assessment in 3 months with modified Rankin Scale score ≤2 stratified by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was present but disappeared when age and sex were matched. Smokers without stroke history had a ≈2-fold increase in stroke deaths (2.05 for ischemic stroke and 1.53 for hemorrhagic stroke) but smokers with stroke history, 7.83-fold increase, overshadowing smoking risk. Quitting smoking at earlier age reversed or improved outcome. Conclusions- "The more you smoke, the earlier you stroke, and the longer sufferings you have to cope." Smokers had 2-fold mortality from stroke but endured stroke disability 11 years longer. Quitting early reduced or reversed the harms.

Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke.

INTRODUCTION: Adult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture. METHODS: We used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality. RESULTS: The model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the 'status quo' scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

Air pollution is not 'the new smoking': comparing the disease burden of air pollution and smoking across the globe, 1990-2017.

Air pollution has been labelled the 'new smoking', with news articles bearing titles such as 'If You Live in a Big City You Already Smoke Every Day' and 'The Air Is So Bad in These Cities, You May As Well Be Smoking'. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, highlighted this attention-catching comparison, saying, 'The world has turned the corner on tobacco. Now it must do the same for the 'new tobacco' - the toxic air that billions breathe every day' and 'Globally, with smoking on the decline, air pollution now causes more deaths annually than tobacco' at the First Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health in 2018. The suggestion that the world has turned the corner on tobacco control and the reference to air pollution as the 'new smoking' raise a number of concerns. We generate outputs from GBD Compare (the online data visualisation tool of the Global Burden of Diseases and Injuries (GBD) Study) to demonstrate historical disease burden trends in terms of disability-adjusted life years and age-standardised mortality attributable to air pollution and tobacco use from 1990 to 2017 across the globe. We find that the disease burden caused by ambient air pollution declined significantly faster than the burden caused by tobacco use. We conclude that the world is still far from turning the corner on the tobacco endemic. Further, the suggestion that air pollution is as bad as actual smoking is not only inaccurate but also potentially dangerous to public health.

Loss of Life Expectancy by 10 Years or More From Elevated Aspartate Aminotransferase: Finding Aspartate Aminotransferase a Better Mortality Predictor for All-Cause and Liver-Related than Alanine Aminotransferase.

OBJECTIVES: Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are 2 commonly ordered liver function tests, and ALT has long been considered more liver-specific than AST. Between the 2, the one which is better in predicting liver or non-liver-related mortality remains unsettled. METHODS: The cohort, 416,122 adults, came from a self-paying comprehensive health surveillance program during 1994-2008 and was followed up till 2008. Mortality came from National Death Index, with 10,412 deaths identified. Hazard ratios (HRs), computed by Cox model, and life expectancy, by life table method, were presented for 5 levels of AST and ALT with elevated AST or ALT defined as ≥40 IU/L. Liver disease included liver cancer and other liver conditions. RESULTS: There were 3 times more elevated ALT (15.4%) than AST (5.7%). However, those with elevated AST had higher mortality for all-cause (HR = 2.44), for liver disease (HR = 27.2), and for liver cancer (HR = 47.6) than its ALT counterparts (HR = 1.69, 10.8, and 20.2, respectively). Elevated AST also lost more years of life expectancy (10.2) than those lost by ALT (5.2) and larger than most common risks. Elevated AST had increased mortality from all cancers (HR = 3.57), stroke (HR = 1.36), respiratory diseases (HR = 1.34), and injuries (HR = 1.82), other than just liver disease. All-cause mortality remained significantly increased, when high risk groups were excluded, such as frequent drinkers, hepatitis carriers, those died from nonmedical conditions, those died in the first 3 years, or advanced fibrosis index based on 4 factors or aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index. Results were consistent between those returned for second visits and those analyzed in initial visits. DISCUSSION: Those with elevated AST (≥40 IU/L) had life expectancy cut short by 10.2 years, doubled the number of years lost with elevated ALT. For all-cause and for liver-related mortality, AST was an important predictor, better than ALT.