Modeling variation in mixture effects over space with a Bayesian spatially varying mixture model.

Mixture analysis is an emerging statistical tool in epidemiological research that seeks to estimate the health effects associated with mixtures of several exposures. This approach acknowledges that individuals experience many simultaneous exposures and it can estimate the relative importance of components in the mixture. Health effects due to mixtures may vary over space driven by to political, demographic, environmental, or other differences. In such cases, estimating a global mixture effect without accounting for spatial variation would induce bias in effect estimates and potentially lower statistical power. To date, no methods have been developed to estimate spatially varying chemical mixture effects. We developed a Bayesian spatially varying mixture model that estimates spatially varying mixture effects and the importance weights of components in the mixture, while adjusting for covariates. We demonstrate the efficacy of the model through a simulation study that varies the number of mixtures (one and two) and spatial pattern (global, one-dimensional, radial) and magnitude of mixture effects, showing that the model is able to accurately reproduce the spatial pattern of mixture effects across a diverse set of scenarios. Finally, we apply our model to a multi-center case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, and Seattle. We identify significant spatially varying positive and inverse associations with NHL for two mixtures of pesticides in Iowa and do not find strong spatial effects at the other three centers. In conclusion, the Bayesian spatially varying mixture model represents a novel method for modeling spatial variation in mixture effects.

Dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: cost-effectiveness beyond the DAPA-CKD trial.

Background: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial enrolled patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio >200 mg/g. The Dapagliflozin Effect on CardiovascuLAR Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58 (DECLARE-TIMI 58) trial enrolled patients with type 2 diabetes, a higher range of kidney function and no albuminuria criterion. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in a broad chronic kidney disease population based on these two trials in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan. Methods: We adapted a published Markov model based on the DAPA-CKD trial but to a broader population, irrespective of urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio, using patient-level data from the DAPA-CKD and DECLARE-TIMI 58 trials. We sourced cost and utility inputs from literature and the DAPA-CKD trial. The analysis considered healthcare system perspectives over a lifetime horizon. Results: Treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to attenuate disease progression and extend projected life expectancy by 0.64 years (12.5 versus 11.9 years, undiscounted) in the UK, with similar estimates in other settings. Clinical benefits translated to mean quality-adjusted life year (QALY; discounted) gains between 0.45 and 0.68 years across countries. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the UK, Spain, Italy and Japan ($10 676/QALY, $14 479/QALY, $7771/QALY and $13 723/QALY, respectively) were cost-effective at country-specific willingness-to-pay thresholds. Subgroup analyses suggest dapagliflozin is cost-effective irrespective of urinary albumin-to-creatine ratio and type 2 diabetes status. Conclusion: Treatment with dapagliflozin may be cost-effective for patients across a wider spectrum of estimated glomerular filtration rates and albuminuria than previously demonstrated, with or without type 2 diabetes, in the UK, Spanish, Italian and Japanese healthcare systems.

Potentially modifiable factors associated with health-related quality of life among people with chronic kidney disease: baseline findings from the National Unified Renal Translational Research Enterprise CKD (NURTuRE-CKD) cohort.

Background: Many non-modifiable factors are associated with poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) experienced by people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We hypothesize that potentially modifiable factors for poor HRQoL can be identified among CKD patients, providing potential targets for intervention. Method: The National Unified Renal Translational Research Enterprise Chronic Kidney Disease (NURTuRE-CKD) cohort study recruited 2996 participants from nephrology centres with all stages of non-dialysis-dependent CKD. Baseline data collection for sociodemographic, anthropometric, biochemical and clinical information, including Integrated Palliative care Outcome Scale renal, Hospital Anxiety and Depression score (HADS) and the 5-level EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D-5L) as HRQoL measure, took place between 2017 and 2019. EQ-5D-5L dimensions (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression) were mapped to an EQ-5D-3L value set to derive index value. Multivariable mixed effects regression models, adjusted for known factors affecting HRQoL with recruitment region as a random effect, were fit to assess potentially modifiable factors associated with index value (linear) and within each dimension (logistic). Results: Among the 2958/2996 (98.7%) participants with complete EQ-5D data, 2201 (74.4%) reported problems in at least one EQ-5D-5L dimension. Multivariable linear regression identified independent associations between poorer HRQoL (EQ-5D-3L index value) and obesity (body mass index ≥30.0 kg/m2, ß -0.037, 95% CI -0.058 to -0.016, P = .001), HADS depression score ≥8 (ß -0.159, -0.182 to -0.137, P < .001), anxiety score ≥8 (ß -0.090, -0.110 to -0.069, P < .001), taking ≥10 medications (ß -0.065, -0.085 to -0.046, P < .001), sarcopenia (ß -0.062, -0.080 to -0.043, P < .001) haemoglobin <100 g/L (ß -0.047, -0.085 to -0.010, P = .012) and pain (ß -0.134, -0.152 to -0.117, P < .001). Smoking and prescription of prednisolone independently associated with problems in self-care and usual activities respectively. Renin-angiotensin system inhibitor (RASi) prescription associated with fewer problems with mobility and usual activities. Conclusion: Potentially modifiable factors including obesity, pain, depression, anxiety, anaemia, polypharmacy, smoking, steroid use and sarcopenia associated with poorer HRQoL in this cohort, whilst RASi use was associated with better HRQoL in two dimensions.

Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Across the Spectrum of Frailty.

BACKGROUND: A sizeable proportion of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are reported to be frail. Here we examined the safety and efficacy of dapagliflozin in patients with CKD by frailty level. METHODS: Adults with CKD, with/without type 2 diabetes, with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 25-75 mL/min/1.73 m2, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5 000 mg/g were randomized to dapagliflozin (10 mg/day) or placebo. The primary endpoint was a composite of sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), or death from kidney or cardiovascular (CV) causes. RESULTS: Frailty index (FI), assessed by Rockwood cumulative deficit approach, was calculable in 4 303/4 304 (99.9%) patients: 1 162 (27.0%) in not-to-mildly frail (FI ≤0.210), 1 642 (38.2%) in moderately frail (FI 0.211-0.310), and 1 499 (34.8%) in severely frail categories (FI >0.311). Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite endpoint across all FI categories (hazard ratios [95% confidence interval {CI}]: 0.50 [0.33-0.76], 0.62 [0.45-0.85], and 0.64 [0.49--0.83], respectively; p-interaction = 0.67). Results were similar for secondary outcomes including kidney composite outcome (sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, ESKD or death from kidney cause; p-interaction = 0.44), CV endpoint (heart failure hospitalization or CV death; p-interaction = 0.63), and all-cause mortality (p-interaction p = .42). Results were consistent when using FI as a continuous variable. Occurrence of serious adverse events was numerically lower in patients receiving dapagliflozin versus placebo in all FI categories (16.9% vs 20.1%, 26.3% vs 30.7%, and 42.9% vs 47.8%, in not-to-mildly, moderately, and severely frail categories, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The relative benefit of dapagliflozin for all outcomes was consistent across all frailty categories, with no difference in associated safety.

Efficacy and safety of zibotentan and dapagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: study design and baseline characteristics of the ZENITH-CKD trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are part of the standard of care for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), both with and without type 2 diabetes. Endothelin A (ETA) receptor antagonists have also been shown to slow progression of CKD. Differing mechanisms of action of SGLT2 and ETA receptor antagonists may enhance efficacy. We outline a study to evaluate the effect of combination zibotentan/dapagliflozin versus dapagliflozin alone on albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). METHODS: We are conducting a double-blind, active-controlled, Phase 2b study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of ETA receptor antagonist zibotentan and SGLT2i dapagliflozin in a planned 415 adults with CKD (Zibotentan and Dapagliflozin for the Treatment of CKD; ZENITH-CKD). Participants are being randomized (1:2:2) to zibotentan 0.25 mg/dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily (QD), zibotentan 1.5 mg/dapagliflozin 10 mg QD and dapagliflozin 10 mg QD alone, for 12 weeks followed by a 2-week off-treatment wash-out period. The primary endpoint is the change in log-transformed urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) from baseline to Week 12. Other outcomes include change in blood pressure from baseline to Week 12 and change in eGFR the study. The incidence of adverse events will be monitored. Study protocol-defined events of special interest include changes in fluid-related measures (weight gain or B-type natriuretic peptide). RESULTS: A total of 447 patients were randomized and received treatment in placebo/dapagliflozin (n = 177), zibotentan 0.25 mg/dapagliflozin (n = 91) and zibotentan 1.5 mg/dapagliflozin (n =  179). The mean age was 62.8 years, 30.9% were female and 68.2% were white. At baseline, the mean eGFR of the enrolled population was 46.7 mL/min/1.73 m2 and the geometric mean UACR was 538.3 mg/g. CONCLUSION: This study evaluates the UACR-lowering efficacy and safety of zibotentan with dapagliflozin as a potential new treatment for CKD. The study will provide information about an effective and safe zibotentan dose to be further investigated in a Phase 3 clinical outcome trial. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04724837.

Advertising Exposure From Online and Offline Sources and Youth Tobacco Use: Findings From the Adolescents, Place, and Behavior Study.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco use among adolescents is an ongoing public health concern. Youth tobacco use has been associated with advertising, from both online sources and retail environments. AIMS AND METHODS: This study examined associations between exposure to tobacco advertisements from tobacco retail outlets (TROs), internet, and social media sources and ever tobacco use among adolescents. Data were obtained from youth, aged 11-17 years (N = 401) from Richmond, VA. Bayesian index and group index models were fitted to estimate indices of exposure to (1) social media use, (2) tobacco ads on social media, and (3) TRO store visits and their association with ever tobacco use. The most important components of the exposure indices were also determined based on the index component weights from the Bayesian index models. RESULTS: In Bayesian index models of single exposures, each exposure index was significantly associated with tobacco use. In the best-fitting model, social media tobacco ads (odds ratio [OR] = 2.2; 95% credible interval [CI]: 1.2, 4.5) and TRO store visits (OR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.3) were significantly associated with ever tobacco use, as was older age (OR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.8). Index component weights revealed Snapchat ad frequency as the most important platform in the social media index and convenience stores as the most important type of store in the TRO index. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements on social media and visits to TROs are associated with adolescent ever tobacco use. Results provide support for policies that would restrict the promotion of tobacco products at TROs and on social media. Tobacco regulations and interventions targeting convenience stores and Snapchat may be warranted to reduce youth tobacco use. IMPLICATIONS: Current evidence provide support for policies that would restrict the promotion of tobacco products at TROs and on social media. Findings suggest that regulations and interventions that specifically target advertisements in convenience stores and on Snapchat may be currently warranted to reduce youth tobacco use.

A Randomized Trial of Intravenous Iron Supplementation and Exercise on Exercise Capacity in Iron-Deficient Nonanemic Patients With CKD.

Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are often iron deficient, even when not anemic. This trial evaluated whether iron supplementation enhances exercise capacity of nonanemic patients with CKD who have iron-deficiency. Methods: Prospective, multicenter double-blind randomized controlled trial of nondialysis patients with CKD and iron-deficiency but without anemia (Hemoglobin [Hb] >110 g/l). Patients were assigned 1:1 to intravenous (IV) iron therapy, or placebo. An 8-week exercise program commenced at week 4. The primary outcome was the mean between-group difference in 6-minute walk test (6MWT) at 4 weeks. Secondary outcomes included 6MWT at 12 weeks, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF), Hb, renal function, muscle strength, functional capacity, quality of life, and adverse events at baseline, 4 weeks, and at 12 weeks. Mean between-group differences were analyzed using analysis of covariance models. Results: Among 75 randomized patients, mean (SD) age for iron therapy (n = 37) versus placebo (n = 38) was 54 (16) versus 61 (12) years; estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (34 [12] vs. 35 [11] ml/min per 1.73 m2], TSAT (23 [12] vs. 21 [6])%; SF (57 [64] vs. 62 [33]) µg/l; Hb (122.4 [9.2] vs. 127 [13.2] g/l); 6MWT (384 [95] vs. 469 [142] meters) at baseline, respectively. No significant mean between-group difference was observed in 6MWT distance at 4 weeks. There were significant increases in SF and TSAT at 4 and 12 weeks (P < 0.02), and Hb at 12 weeks (P = 0.009). There were no between-group differences in other secondary outcomes and no adverse events attributable to iron therapy. Conclusion: This trial did not demonstrate beneficial effects of IV iron therapy on exercise capacity at 4 weeks. A larger study is needed to confirm if IV iron is beneficial in nondialysis patients with CKD who are iron-deficient.

Modeling historic neighborhood deprivation and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk.

Many studies have identified associations between neighborhood deprivation and disease, emphasizing the importance of social determinants of health. However, when studying diseases with long latency periods such as cancers, considering the timing of exposures for deprivation becomes more important. In this study, we estimated the associations between neighborhood deprivation indices at several time points and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in a population-based case-control study at four study centers - Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles County, and Seattle (1998-2000). We used the Bayesian index regression model and residential histories to estimate neighborhood deprivation index effects in crude models and adjusted for four chemical mixtures measured in house dust and individual-level covariates. We found that neighborhood deprivation in 1980, approximately twenty years before study entry, provided better model fit than did neighborhood deprivation at 1990 and 2000. We identified several statistically significant associations between neighborhood deprivation in 1980 and NHL risk in Iowa and among long-term (20+ years) residents of Detroit. The most important variables in these indices were median gross rent as a percentage of household income in Iowa and percent of single-parent households with at least one child and median household income in Detroit. Associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for individual-level covariates and chemical mixtures, providing evidence for historic neighborhood deprivation as a risk factor for NHL and motivating future research to uncover the specific carcinogens driving these associations in deprived areas.

Ferric Carboxymaltose in Iron-Deficient Patients with Hospitalized Heart Failure and Reduced Kidney Function.

BACKGROUND: Reduced kidney function is common among patients with heart failure. In patients with heart failure and/or kidney disease, iron deficiency is an independent predictor of adverse outcomes. In the AFFIRM-AHF trial, patients with acute heart failure with iron deficiency treated with intravenous ferric carboxymaltose demonstrated reduced risk of heart failure hospitalization, with improved quality of life. We aimed to further characterize the impact of ferric carboxymaltose among patients with coexisting kidney impairment. METHODS: The double-blind, placebo-controlled AFFIRM-AHF trial randomized 1132 stabilized adults with acute heart failure (left ventricular ejection fraction <50%) and iron deficiency. Patients on dialysis were excluded. The primary end point was a composite of total heart failure hospitalizations and cardiovascular death during the 52-week follow-up period. Additional end points included cardiovascular hospitalizations, total heart failure hospitalizations, and days lost to heart failure hospitalizations or cardiovascular death. For this subgroup analysis, patients were stratified according to baseline eGFR. RESULTS: Overall, 60% of patients had an eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (the lower eGFR subgroup). These patients were significantly older, more likely to be female and to have ischemic heart failure, and had higher baseline serum phosphate levels and higher rates of anemia. For all end points, event rates were higher in the lower eGFR group. In the lower eGFR group, the annualized event rates for the primary composite outcome were 68.96 and 86.30 per 100 patient-years in the ferric carboxymaltose and placebo arms, respectively (rate ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.54 to 1.06). The treatment effect was similar in the higher eGFR subgroup (rate ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.42 to 1.02; Pinteraction = 0.60). A similar pattern was observed for all end points ( Pinteraction > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of patients with acute heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, and iron deficiency, the safety and efficacy of ferric carboxymaltose were consistent across a range of eGFR values. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Study to Compare Ferric Carboxymaltose With Placebo in Patients With Acute Heart Failure and Iron Deficiency (Affirm-AHF), NCT02937454 .

An international Delphi consensus statement on metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and risk of chronic kidney disease.

Background: With the rising global prevalence of fatty liver disease related to metabolic dysfunction, the association of this common liver condition with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become increasingly evident. In 2020, the more inclusive term metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) was proposed to replace the term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). The observed association between MAFLD and CKD and our understanding that CKD can be a consequence of underlying metabolic dysfunction support the notion that individuals with MAFLD are at higher risk of having and developing CKD compared with those without MAFLD. However, to date, there is no appropriate guidance on CKD in individuals with MAFLD. Furthermore, there has been little attention paid to the link between MAFLD and CKD in the Nephrology community. Methods and Results: Using a Delphi-based approach, a multidisciplinary panel of 50 international experts from 26 countries reached a consensus on some of the open research questions regarding the link between MAFLD and CKD. Conclusions: This Delphi-based consensus statement provided guidance on the epidemiology, mechanisms, management and treatment of MAFLD and CKD, as well as the relationship between the severity of MAFLD and risk of CKD, which establish a framework for the early prevention and management of these two common and interconnected diseases.

The ASCEND-NHQ randomized trial found positive effects of daprodustat on hemoglobin and quality of life in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease.

The ASCEND-NHQ trial evaluated the effects of daprodustat on hemoglobin and the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form Survey (SF-36) Vitality score (fatigue) in a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3-5, hemoglobin 8.5-10.0 g/dl, transferrin saturation 15% or more, and ferritin 50 ng/ml or more without recent erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use were randomized (1:1) to oral daprodustat or placebo to achieve and maintain target hemoglobin of 11-12 g/dl over 28 weeks. The primary endpoint was the mean change in hemoglobin between baseline and the evaluation period (Weeks 24-28). Principal secondary endpoints were proportion of participants with a 1 g/dl or more increase in hemoglobin and mean change in the Vitality score between baseline and Week 28. Outcome superiority was tested (1-sided alpha level of 0.025). Overall, 614 participants with non-dialysis-dependent CKD were randomized. The adjusted mean change in hemoglobin from baseline to the evaluation period was greater with daprodustat (1.58 vs 0.19 g/dl). The adjusted mean treatment difference (AMD) was significant at 1.40 g/dl (95% confidence interval 1.23, 1.56). A significantly greater proportion of participants receiving daprodustat showed a 1 g/dl or greater increase in hemoglobin from baseline (77% vs 18%). The mean SF-36 Vitality score increased by 7.3 and 1.9 points with daprodustat and placebo, respectively; a clinically and statistically significant 5.4 point Week 28 AMD increase. Adverse event rates were similar (69% vs 71%); relative risk 0.98, (95% confidence interval 0.88, 1.09). Thus, in participants with CKD stages 3-5, daprodustat resulted in a significant increase in hemoglobin and improvement in fatigue without an increase in the overall frequency of adverse events.

Modeling historic environmental pollutant exposures and non-Hodgkin lymphoma risk.

Environmental exposures to chemicals are suspected risk factors for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but few studies have assessed historic environmental risk factors. In this study, we estimated the associations between NHL and 1) historic environmental pollutant emissions from the Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) model, which uses a database from the Environmental Protection Agency of toxic release emissions to air, water, and land, and 2) chemical mixtures measured in house dust (groups of PCBs, PAHs, and two mixtures of pesticides) for study participants enrolled in the NCI-SEER population-based case-control study (1998-2000) at four SEER centers - Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles County, and Seattle. We assigned 11 years of annual temporally-varying historic environmental exposure scores by intersecting residential locations from participants' residential histories with a fine grid from the RSEI model and by performing inverse distance weighting between facilities releasing specific carcinogenic chemicals and residential locations for spatially-precise exposure assignments. We used Bayesian index low-rank kriging multiple membership models to identify important lag times for RSEI scores, cumulative effects of RSEI scores, and specific carcinogenic chemical releases into the environment. We found a significant positive association between RSEI scores and NHL at the maximum time lag of 11 years (OR = 1.17, 95% CI (1.06, 1.32)) and a significant cumulative RSEI score effect (OR = 1.30, 95% CI (1.02, 1.84)) for long-term residents in Detroit, where benzene and trichloroethylene were the most important chemicals driving this association. Additionally, we identified significant inverse associations for two study centers and time lags that did not persist in cumulative exposure models. Large weights for dichloromethane and pentachlorophenol in models of cumulative exposure also support evidence for their association with NHL risk. These results underscore the importance of considering historic and cumulative environmental exposures and using residential histories for diseases with long latency periods such as NHL.

Neighborhood Deprivation, Indoor Chemical Concentrations, and Spatial Risk for Childhood Leukemia.

Leukemia is the most common childhood cancer in industrialized countries, and the increasing incidence trends in the US suggest that environmental exposures play a role in its etiology. Neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) has been found to be associated with many health outcomes, including childhood leukemia. In this paper, we used a Bayesian index model approach to estimate a neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) in the analysis of childhood leukemia in a population-based case-control study (diagnosed 1999 to 2006) in northern and central California, with direct indoor measurements of many chemicals for 277 cases and 306 controls <8 years of age. We considered spatial random effects in the Bayesian index model approach to identify any areas of significantly elevated risk not explained by neighborhood deprivation or individual covariates, and assessed if groups of indoor chemicals would explain any elevated spatial risk areas. Due to not all eligible cases and controls participating in the study, we conducted a simulation study to add non-participants to evaluate the impact of potential selection bias when estimating NDI effects and spatial risk. The results in the crude model showed an odds ratio (OR) of 1.06 and 95% credible interval (CI) of (0.98, 1.15) for a one unit increase in the NDI, but the association became slightly inverse when adjusting for individual level covariates in the observed data (OR = 0.97 and 95% CI: 0.87, 1.07), as well as when using simulated data (average OR = 0.98 and 95% CI: 0.91, 1.05). We found a significant spatial risk of childhood leukemia after adjusting for NDI and individual-level covariates in two counties, but the area of elevated risk was partly explained by selection bias in simulation studies that included more participating controls in areas of lower SES. The area of elevated risk was explained when including chemicals measured inside the home, and insecticides and herbicides had greater effects for the risk area than the overall study. In summary, the consideration of exposures and variables at different levels from multiple sources, as well as potential selection bias, are important for explaining the observed spatial areas of elevated risk and effect estimates.

Design and population of the VALOR-CKD study: a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of veverimer in slowing progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with metabolic acidosis.

BACKGROUND: Whether treating metabolic acidosis slows progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been established. Veverimer is a novel hydrochloric acid binder that removes acid from the gastrointestinal tract leading to an increase in serum bicarbonate; it is being developed to treat metabolic acidosis with the goal of slowing progression of CKD. METHODS: The VALOR-CKD trial is an international, randomized, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled study designed to evaluate the effect of once-daily veverimer on kidney disease progression in patients with metabolic acidosis and CKD. Eligibility criteria include a serum bicarbonate in the range of 12-20 mmol/L and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20-40 mL/min/1.73 m2. The primary outcome is kidney disease progression defined as the development of end-stage kidney disease, a sustained decline in eGFR of >40% from baseline or death due to kidney failure. Key secondary endpoints include effects on physical function. RESULTS: Between December 2018 and December 2021, 1480 participants were randomized. The mean age at baseline was 65.1 years and 42% of the patients were female. The mean baseline eGFR was 29.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 and mean serum bicarbonate was 17.5 mmol/L. The median urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio at screening was 201 mg/g and the median 5-year predicted risk of kidney failure was 32%. Diabetes and hypertension were present in 56% and 98% of participants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: VALOR-CKD has recruited a large population of people with metabolic acidosis at high risk for CKD progression to determine the effects of veverimer on the risk of progressive loss of kidney function.

Effects of Dapagliflozin on Hospitalizations in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease : A Post Hoc Analysis of DAPA-CKD.

BACKGROUND: Acute hospitalizations are common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and often lead to decreases in health-related quality of life and increased care costs. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of dapagliflozin on first hospitalizations and all (first and subsequent) hospitalizations and to explore effects on cause-specific hospitalizations. DESIGN: Post hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03036150). SETTING: 386 ambulatory practice sites in 21 countries from 2 February 2017 through 12 June 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 25 to 75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio of 200 to 5000 mg/g, with and without type 2 diabetes. INTERVENTION: Dapagliflozin, 10 mg once daily, or matching placebo (1:1 ratio). MEASUREMENTS: The effects of dapagliflozin on first hospitalizations for any cause, all hospitalizations, and cause-specific (first and recurrent) hospitalizations were determined. The reported system organ class was used to evaluate reasons for admission. Hospitalizations were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models (first hospitalization), the Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying method (all hospitalizations or death), and negative binomial models (cause-specific hospitalizations). RESULTS: The study included 4304 patients (mean age, 61.8 years; 33.1% women). During a median follow-up of 2.4 years, 2072 hospitalizations were reported among 1224 (28.4%) participants. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced risk for a first hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.94]) and all hospitalizations or death (rate ratio, 0.79 [CI, 0.70 to 0.89]). There was no evidence that the effects of dapagliflozin on first and all hospitalizations varied by baseline presence of type 2 diabetes (P for interaction = 0.60 for each). Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced the rate of admissions due to cardiac disorders, renal and urinary disorders, metabolism and nutrition disorders, and neoplasms. LIMITATIONS: This was a post hoc analysis and should be viewed as hypothesis-generating. Hospitalizations and causes were reported by site investigators and were not centrally adjudicated. CONCLUSION: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk for hospitalization for any cause in patients with CKD with and without type 2 diabetes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: AstraZeneca.

High-dose intravenous iron reduces myocardial infarction in patients on haemodialysis.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of high-dose iron vs. low-dose intravenous (IV) iron on myocardial infarction (MI) in patients on maintenance haemodialysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a pre-specified analysis of secondary endpoints of the Proactive IV Iron Therapy in Hemodialysis Patients trial (PIVOTAL) randomized, controlled clinical trial. Adults who had started haemodialysis within the previous year, who had a ferritin concentration <400 µg per litre and a transferrin saturation <30% were randomized to high-dose or low-dose IV iron. The main outcome measure for this analysis was fatal or non-fatal MI. Over a median of 2.1 years of follow-up, 8.4% experienced a MI. Rates of type 1 MIs (3.2/100 patient-years) were 2.5 times higher than type 2 MIs (1.3/100 patient-years). Non-ST-elevation MIs (3.3/100 patient-years) were 6 times more common than ST-elevation MIs (0.5/100 patient-years). Mortality was high after non-fatal MI (1- and 2-year mortality of 40% and 60%, respectively). In time-to-first event analyses, proactive high-dose IV iron reduced the composite endpoint of non-fatal and fatal MI [hazard ratio (HR) 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-0.93, P = 0.01] and non-fatal MI (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93; P = 0.01) when compared with reactive low-dose IV iron. There was less effect of high-dose IV iron on recurrent MI events than on the time-to-first event analysis. CONCLUSION: In total, 8.4% of patients on maintenance haemodialysis had an MI over 2 years. High-dose compared to low-dose IV iron reduced MI in patients receiving haemodialysis. EUDRACT REGISTRATION NUMBER: 2013-002267-25.

Estimating mixture effects and cumulative spatial risk over time simultaneously using a Bayesian index low-rank kriging multiple membership model.

The exposome is an ideal in public health research that posits that individuals experience risk for adverse health outcomes from a wide variety of sources over their lifecourse. There have been increases in data collection in the various components of the exposome, but novel statistical methods are needed that capture multiple dimensions of risk at once. We introduce a Bayesian index low-rank kriging (LRK) multiple membership model (MMM) to simultaneously estimate the health effects of one or more groups of exposures, the relative importance of exposure components, and cumulative spatial risk over time using residential histories. The model employs an MMM to consider all residential locations for subjects weighted by duration and LRK to increase computational efficiency. We demonstrate the performance of the Bayesian index LRK-MMM through a simulation study, showing that the model accurately and consistently estimates the health effects of one or several group indices and has high power to identify a region of elevated spatial risk due to unmeasured environmental exposures. Finally, we apply our model to data from a multicenter case-control study of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), finding a significant positive association between one index of pesticides and risk for NHL in Iowa. Additionally, we find an area of significantly elevated spatial risk for NHL in Los Angeles. In conclusion, our Bayesian index LRK-MMM represents a step forward toward bringing the ideals of the exposome into practice for environmental risk analyzes.

An Analysis of Vascular Access Thrombosis Events From the Proactive IV irOn Therapy in hemodiALysis Patients Trial.

Introduction: Treatment of anemia in dialysis patients has been associated with increased risk of vascular access thrombosis (VAT). Proactive IV irOn Therapy in hemodiALysis Patients (PIVOTAL) was a clinical trial of proactive compared with reactive i.v. iron therapy in patients requiring hemodialysis. We analyzed the trial data to determine whether randomized treatment arm, alongside other clinical and laboratory variables, independently associated with VAT. Methods: In PIVOTAL, 2141 adult patients were randomized. The type of vascular access (arteriovenous fistula [AVF], arteriovenous graft [AVG], or central venous catheter [CVC]) was recorded at baseline and every month after randomization. The associations between clinical and laboratory data and first VAT were evaluated in a multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 480 (22.4%) participants experienced VAT in a median of 2.1 years of follow-up. In multivariable analyses, treatment arm (proactive vs. reactive) was not an independent predictor of VAT (hazard ratio [HR] 1.13, P = 0.18). Diabetic kidney disease (HR 1.45, P < 0.001), AVG use (HR 2.29, P < 0.001), digoxin use (HR 2.48, P < 0.001), diuretic use (HR 1.25, P = 0.02), female sex (HR 1.33, P = 0.002), and previous/current smoker (HR 1.47, P = 0.004) were independently associated with a higher risk of VAT. Angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use (HR 0.66, P = 0.01) was independently associated with a lower risk of VAT. Conclusion: In PIVOTAL, VAT occurred in nearly 1 quarter of participants in a median of just >2 years. In this post hoc analysis, randomization to proactive i.v. iron treatment arms did not increase the risk of VAT.

The effect of intravenous iron supplementation on exercise capacity in iron-deficient but not anaemic patients with chronic kidney disease: study design and baseline data for a multicentre prospective double-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many people living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are iron deficient, even though they may not be anaemic. The Iron and Muscle study aims to evaluate whether iron supplementation reduces symptoms of fatigue, improves muscle metabolism, and leads to enhanced exercise capacity and physical function. We report here the trial design and baseline characteristics. METHODS: This is a prospective, double-blind multicentre randomised controlled trial (RCT) including 75 non-dialysis stage 3-4 CKD patients with iron deficiency but without anaemia. Patients were randomly (1:1) assigned to either: i) intravenous iron therapy, or ii) placebo, with concurrent recruitment of eight CKD non-iron deficient participants and six healthy volunteers. The primary outcome of the study is the six-minute walk test (6MWT) distance between baseline and four-weeks. An additional exercise training programme for patients in both groups was initiated and completed between 4 and 12 weeks, to determine the effect of iron repletion compared to placebo treatment in the context of patients undertaking an exercise programme. Additional secondary outcomes include fatigue, physical function, muscle strength, muscle metabolism, quality of life, resting blood pressure, clinical chemistry, safety and harms associated with the iron therapy intervention and the exercise training intervention, and hospitalisations. All outcomes were conducted at baseline, 4, and 12 weeks, with a nested qualitative study, to investigate the experience of living with iron deficiency and intervention acceptability. The cohort have been recruited and baseline assessments undertaken. RESULTS: Seventy-five individuals were recruited. 44% of the randomised cohort were male, the mean (SD) age was 58 (14) years, and 56% were White. Body mass index was 31 (7) kg/m2; serum ferritin was 59 (45) µg/L, transferrin saturation was 22 (10) %, and haemoglobin was 125 (12) g/L at randomisation for the whole group. Estimated glomerular filtration rate was 35 (12) mL/min/1.73 m2 and the baseline 6MWT distance was 429 (174) m. CONCLUSION: The results from this study will address a substantial knowledge gap in the effects of intravenous iron therapy, and offer potential clinical treatment options, to improve exercise capacity, physical function, fatigue, and muscle metabolism, for non-dialysis patients with CKD who are iron-deficient but not anaemic. It will also offer insight into the potential novel effects of an 8-week exercise training programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION: EudraCT: 2018-000,144-25 Registered 28/01/2019.

Tobacco Retail Outlets, Neighborhood Deprivation and the Risk of Prenatal Smoke Exposure.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking and smoke exposure among pregnant women remain persistent public health issues. Recent estimates suggest that approximately one out of four nonsmokers have measurable levels of cotinine, a marker indicating regular exposure to secondhand smoke. Epidemiological research has attempted to pinpoint individual-level and neighborhood-level factors for smoking during pregnancy. However, most of these studies have relied upon self-reported measures of smoking. AIMS AND METHODS: To more accurately assess smoke exposure resulting from both smoking and secondhand exposure in mothers during pregnancy, we used Bayesian regression models to estimate the association of cotinine levels with tobacco retail outlet (TRO) exposure and a neighborhood deprivation index (NDI) in six counties in North Carolina centered on Durham County. RESULTS: Results showed a significant positive association between TRO exposure (ß = 0.008, 95% credible interval (CI) = [0.003, 0.013]) and log cotinine after adjusting for individual covariates (eg, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status). TRO exposure was not significant after including the NDI, which was significantly associated with log cotinine (ß = 0.143, 95% CI = [0.030, 0.267]). However, in a low cotinine stratum (indicating secondhand smoke exposure), TRO exposure was significantly associated with log cotinine (ß = 0.005, 95% CI = [0.001, 0.009]), while in a high cotinine stratum (indicating active smoking), the NDI was significantly associated with log cotinine (ß = 0.176, 95% CI = [0.005, 0.372]). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, our findings add to the evidence that contextual factors are important for active smoking during pregnancy. IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we found several significant associations that suggest a more nuanced understanding of the potential influence of environmental- and individual-level factors for levels of prenatal smoke exposure. Results suggested a significant positive association between TRO exposure and cotinine levels, after adjusting for the individual factors such as race, education, and marital status. Individually, NDI was similarly positively associated with cotinine levels as well. However, when combining TRO exposure alongside NDI in the same model, TROs were no longer significantly associated with overall cotinine levels.