Proteomic prediction of diverse incident diseases: a machine learning-guided biomarker discovery study using data from a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Broad-capture proteomic technologies have the potential to improve disease prediction, enabling targeted prevention and management, but studies have so far been limited to very few selected diseases and have not evaluated predictive performance across multiple conditions. We aimed to evaluate the potential of serum proteins to improve risk prediction over and above health-derived information and polygenic risk scores across a diverse set of 24 outcomes. METHODS: We designed multiple case-cohorts nested in the EPIC-Norfolk prospective study, from participants with available serum samples and genome-wide genotype data, with more than 32 974 person-years of follow-up. Participants were middle-aged individuals (aged 40-79 years at baseline) of European ancestry who were recruited from the general population of Norfolk, England, between March, 1993 and December, 1997. We selected participants who developed one of ten less common diseases within 10 years of follow-up; we also subsampled a randomly drawn control subcohort, which also served to investigate 14 more common outcomes (n>70), including all-cause premature mortality (death before the age of 75 years; case numbers 71-437; controls 608-1556). Individuals were excluded from the current study owing to failed genotyping or proteomic quality control, relatedness, or missing information on age, sex, BMI, or smoking status. We used a machine learning framework to derive sparse predictive protein models for the onset of the the 23 individual diseases and all-cause premature mortality, and to derive a single common sparse multimorbidity signature that was predictive across multiple diseases from 2923 serum proteins. FINDINGS: Participants who developed one of ten less common diseases within 10 years of follow-up included 482 women and 507 men, with a mean age at baseline of 64·56 years (8·08). The random subcohort included 990 women and 769 men, with a mean age of 58·79 years (9·31). As few as five proteins alone outperformed polygenic risk scores for 17 of 23 outcomes (median dfference in concordance index [C-index] 0·13 [0·10-0·17]) and improved predictive performance when added over basic patient-derived information models for seven outcomes, achieving a median C-index of 0·82 (IQR 0·77-0·82). This included diseases with poor prognosis such as lung cancer (C-index 0·85 [+/- cross-validation error 0·83-0·87]), for which we identified unreported biomarkers such as C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 17. A sparse multimorbidity signature of ten proteins improved prediction across seven outcomes over patient-derived information models, achieving performances (median C-index 0·81 [IQR 0·80-0·82]) similar to those of disease-specific signatures. INTERPRETATION: We show the value of broad-capture proteomic biomarker discovery studies across multiple diseases of diverse causes, pointing to those that might benefit the most from proteomic approaches, and the potential to derive common sparse biomarker panels for prediction of multiple diseases at once. This framework could enable follow-up studies to explore the generalisability of proteomic models and to benchmark these against clinical assays, which are required to understand the translational potential of these findings. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, UK Research and Innovation-National Institute for Health and Care Research, Cancer Research UK, and Wellcome Trust.

Unraveling Neuro-Proteogenomic Landscape and Therapeutic Implications for Human Behaviors and Psychiatric Disorders.

Understanding the genetic basis of neuro-related proteins is essential for dissecting the molecular basis of human behavioral traits and the disease etiology of neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, the SCALLOP Consortium conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of over 12,500 individuals for 184 neuro-related proteins in human plasma. The analysis identified 117 cis-regulatory protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTL) and 166 trans-pQTL. The mapped pQTL capture on average 50% of each protein's heritability. Mendelian randomization analyses revealed multiple proteins showing potential causal effects on neuro-related traits such as sleeping, smoking, feelings, alcohol intake, mental health, and psychiatric disorders. Integrating with established drug information, we validated 13 out of 13 matched combinations of protein targets and diseases or side effects with available drugs, while suggesting hundreds of re-purposing and new therapeutic targets. This consortium effort provides a large-scale proteogenomic resource for biomedical research on human behaviors and other neuro-related phenotypes.

The need for a comprehensive and integrated approach to lung cancer policy in Europe.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in Europe. Europe's Beating Cancer Plan calls for a comprehensive approach to the disease in general but not specifically to lung cancer. Such a comprehensive approach, integrating efforts to strengthen anti-tobacco policies, early detection and underlying models of care, is sorely needed for lung cancer - particularly considering disruptions to care during the COVID-19 pandemic. In a recently published think piece, a multidisciplinary group of experts proposed four key policy priority areas. First, to reduce stigma and improve awareness of potential symptoms, there is a need to foster a better understanding of lung cancer - among the public and healthcare professionals. Second, opportunities for early detection should be enhanced, and the implementation of targeted screening through low-dose computed tomography should be encouraged as a complement to smoking cessation services. This complementarity should be recognised and built into joint policy proposals, with development and better integration of screening and smoking cessation programmes on the ground. Third, the socioeconomic inequalities underpinning disparities in outcomes in people with lung cancer must be addressed, with targeted approaches to overcome barriers to access Finally, the overall quality of lung cancer care must be improved, making multidisciplinary care available to all and ensuring survivorship is given due attention.

ELF5 is a potential respiratory epithelial cell-specific risk gene for severe COVID-19.

Despite two years of intense global research activity, host genetic factors that predispose to a poorer prognosis of COVID-19 infection remain poorly understood. Here, we prioritise eight robust (e.g., ELF5) or suggestive but unreported (e.g., RAB2A) candidate protein mediators of COVID-19 outcomes by integrating results from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative with population-based plasma proteomics using statistical colocalisation. The transcription factor ELF5 (ELF5) shows robust and directionally consistent associations across different outcome definitions, including a >4-fold higher risk (odds ratio: 4.88; 95%-CI: 2.47-9.63; p-value < 5.0 × 10-6) for severe COVID-19 per 1 s.d. higher genetically predicted plasma ELF5. We show that ELF5 is specifically expressed in epithelial cells of the respiratory system, such as secretory and alveolar type 2 cells, using single-cell RNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry. These cells are also likely targets of SARS-CoV-2 by colocalisation with key host factors, including ACE2 and TMPRSS2. In summary, large-scale human genetic studies together with gene expression at single-cell resolution highlight ELF5 as a risk gene for severe COVID-19, supporting a role of epithelial cells of the respiratory system in the adverse host response to SARS-CoV-2.

Development and validation of a metabolite score for red meat intake: an observational cohort study and randomized controlled dietary intervention.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported meat consumption is associated with disease risk but objective assessment of different dimensions of this heterogeneous dietary exposure in observational and interventional studies remains challenging. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to derive and validate scores based on plasma metabolites for types of meat consumption. For the most predictive score, we aimed to test whether the included metabolites varied with change in meat consumption, and whether the score was associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and other noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: We derived scores based on 781 plasma metabolites for red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption assessed with 7-d food records among 11,432 participants in the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk) cohort. The scores were then tested for internal validity in an independent subset (n = 853) of the same cohort. In focused analysis on the red meat metabolite score, we examined whether the metabolites constituting the score were also associated with meat intake in a randomized crossover dietary intervention trial of meat (n = 12, Lyon, France). In the EPIC-Norfolk study, we assessed the association of the red meat metabolite score with T2D incidence (n = 1478) and other health endpoints. RESULTS: The best-performing score was for red meat, comprising 139 metabolites which accounted for 17% of the explained variance of red meat consumption in the validation set. In the intervention, 11 top-ranked metabolites in the red meat metabolite score increased significantly after red meat consumption. In the EPIC-Norfolk study, the red meat metabolite score was associated with T2D incidence (adjusted HR per SD: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: The red meat metabolite score derived and validated in this study contains metabolites directly derived from meat consumption and is associated with T2D risk. These findings suggest the potential for objective assessment of dietary components and their application for understanding diet-disease associations.The trial in Lyon, France, was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03354130.

Genetically Predicted Glucose-Dependent Insulinotropic Polypeptide (GIP) Levels and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Are Driven by Distinct Causal Variants in the GIPR Region.

There is considerable interest in GIPR agonism to enhance the insulinotropic and extrapancreatic effects of GIP, thereby improving glycemic and weight control in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity. Recent genetic epidemiological evidence has implicated higher GIPR-mediated GIP levels in raising coronary artery disease (CAD) risk, a potential safety concern for GIPR agonism. We therefore aimed to quantitatively assess whether the association between higher GIPR-mediated fasting GIP levels and CAD risk is mediated via GIPR or is instead the result of linkage disequilibrium (LD) confounding between variants at the GIPR locus. Using Bayesian multitrait colocalization, we identified a GIPR missense variant, rs1800437 (G allele; E354), as the putatively causal variant shared among fasting GIP levels, glycemic traits, and adiposity-related traits (posterior probability for colocalization [PPcoloc] > 0.97; PP explained by the candidate variant [PPexplained] = 1) that was independent from a cluster of CAD and lipid traits driven by a known missense variant in APOE (rs7412; distance to E354 ∼770 Kb; R 2 with E354 = 0.004; PPcoloc > 0.99; PPexplained = 1). Further, conditioning the association between E354 and CAD on the residual LD with rs7412, we observed slight attenuation in association, but it remained significant (odds ratio [OR] per copy of E354 after adjustment 1.03; 95% CI 1.02, 1.04; P = 0.003). Instead, E354's association with CAD was completely attenuated when conditioning on an additional established CAD signal, rs1964272 (R 2 with E354 = 0.27), an intronic variant in SNRPD2 (OR for E354 after adjustment for rs1964272: 1.01; 95% CI 0.99, 1.03; P = 0.06). We demonstrate that associations with GIP and anthropometric and glycemic traits are driven by genetic signals distinct from those driving CAD and lipid traits in the GIPR region and that higher E354-mediated fasting GIP levels are not associated with CAD risk. These findings provide evidence that the inclusion of GIPR agonism in dual GIPR/GLP1R agonists could potentiate the protective effect of GLP-1 agonists on diabetes without undue CAD risk, an aspect that has yet to be assessed in clinical trials.

Genome-wide association analysis of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-InterAct study.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global public health challenge. Whilst the advent of genome-wide association studies has identified >400 genetic variants associated with T2D, our understanding of its biological mechanisms and translational insights is still limited. The EPIC-InterAct project, centred in 8 countries in the European Prospective Investigations into Cancer and Nutrition study, is one of the largest prospective studies of T2D. Established as a nested case-cohort study to investigate the interplay between genetic and lifestyle behavioural factors on the risk of T2D, a total of 12,403 individuals were identified as incident T2D cases, and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals was selected from a larger cohort of 340,234 participants with a follow-up time of 3.99 million person-years. We describe the results from a genome-wide association analysis between more than 8.9 million SNPs and T2D risk among 22,326 individuals (9,978 cases and 12,348 non-cases) from the EPIC-InterAct study. The summary statistics to be shared provide a valuable resource to facilitate further investigations into the genetics of T2D.

Meta-analysis investigating the role of interleukin-6 mediated inflammation in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from animal models and observational epidemiology points to a role for chronic inflammation, in which interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a key player, in the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, it is unknown whether IL-6 mediated inflammation is implicated in the pathophysiology of T2D. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis of 15 prospective studies to investigate associations between IL-6 levels and incident T2D including 5,421 cases and 31,562 non-cases. We also estimated the association of a loss-of-function missense variant (Asp358Ala) in the IL-6 receptor gene (IL6R), previously shown to mimic the effects of IL-6R inhibition, in a large trans-ethnic meta-analysis of six T2D case-control studies including 260,614 cases and 1,350,640 controls. FINDINGS: In a meta-analysis of 15 prospective studies, higher levels of IL-6 (per log pg/mL) were significantly associated with a higher risk of incident T2D (1·24 95% CI, 1·17, 1·32; P = 1 × 10-12). In a trans-ethnic meta-analysis of 260,614 cases and 1,350,640 controls, the IL6R Asp358Ala missense variant was associated with lower odds of T2D (OR, 0·98; 95% CI, 0·97, 0·99; P = 2 × 10-7). This association was not due to diagnostic misclassification and was consistent across ethnic groups. IL-6 levels mediated up to 5% of the association between higher body mass index and T2D. INTERPRETATION: Large-scale human prospective and genetic data provide evidence that IL-6 mediated inflammation is implicated in the etiology of T2D but suggest that the impact of this pathway on disease risk in the general population is likely to be small. FUNDING: The EPICNorfolk study has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) (MR/N003284/1, MC-UU_12015/1 and MC_PC_13048) and Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136). The Fenland Study is funded by the MRC (MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_PC_13046).

The association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes in European populations: A meta-analysis and Mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]-InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D.

Human Gain-of-Function MC4R Variants Show Signaling Bias and Protect against Obesity.

The melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) is a G protein-coupled receptor whose disruption causes obesity. We functionally characterized 61 MC4R variants identified in 0.5 million people from UK Biobank and examined their associations with body mass index (BMI) and obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. We found that the maximal efficacy of ß-arrestin recruitment to MC4R, rather than canonical Gαs-mediated cyclic adenosine-monophosphate production, explained 88% of the variance in the association of MC4R variants with BMI. While most MC4R variants caused loss of function, a subset caused gain of function; these variants were associated with significantly lower BMI and lower odds of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and coronary artery disease. Protective associations were driven by MC4R variants exhibiting signaling bias toward ß-arrestin recruitment and increased mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway activation. Harnessing ß-arrestin-biased MC4R signaling may represent an effective strategy for weight loss and the treatment of obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases.

Genetic architecture of human thinness compared to severe obesity.

The variation in weight within a shared environment is largely attributable to genetic factors. Whilst many genes/loci confer susceptibility to obesity, little is known about the genetic architecture of healthy thinness. Here, we characterise the heritability of thinness which we found was comparable to that of severe obesity (h2 = 28.07 vs 32.33% respectively), although with incomplete genetic overlap (r = -0.49, 95% CI [-0.17, -0.82], p = 0.003). In a genome-wide association analysis of thinness (n = 1,471) vs severe obesity (n = 1,456), we identified 10 loci previously associated with obesity, and demonstrate enrichment for established BMI-associated loci (pbinomial = 3.05x10-5). Simulation analyses showed that different association results between the extremes were likely in agreement with additive effects across the BMI distribution, suggesting different effects on thinness and obesity could be due to their different degrees of extremeness. In further analyses, we detected a novel obesity and BMI-associated locus at PKHD1 (rs2784243, obese vs. thin p = 5.99x10-6, obese vs. controls p = 2.13x10-6 pBMI = 2.3x10-13), associations at loci recently discovered with much larger sample sizes (e.g. FAM150B and PRDM6-CEP120), and novel variants driving associations at previously established signals (e.g. rs205262 at the SNRPC/C6orf106 locus and rs112446794 at the PRDM6-CEP120 locus). Our ability to replicate loci found with much larger sample sizes demonstrates the value of clinical extremes and suggest that characterisation of the genetics of thinness may provide a more nuanced understanding of the genetic architecture of body weight regulation and may inform the identification of potential anti-obesity targets.

The Allelic Landscape of Human Blood Cell Trait Variation and Links to Common Complex Disease.

Many common variants have been associated with hematological traits, but identification of causal genes and pathways has proven challenging. We performed a genome-wide association analysis in the UK Biobank and INTERVAL studies, testing 29.5 million genetic variants for association with 36 red cell, white cell, and platelet properties in 173,480 European-ancestry participants. This effort yielded hundreds of low frequency (<5%) and rare (<1%) variants with a strong impact on blood cell phenotypes. Our data highlight general properties of the allelic architecture of complex traits, including the proportion of the heritable component of each blood trait explained by the polygenic signal across different genome regulatory domains. Finally, through Mendelian randomization, we provide evidence of shared genetic pathways linking blood cell indices with complex pathologies, including autoimmune diseases, schizophrenia, and coronary heart disease and evidence suggesting previously reported population associations between blood cell indices and cardiovascular disease may be non-causal.

Gene-lifestyle interaction and type 2 diabetes: the EPIC interact case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction  = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction  = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction  = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS: The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

Genome-wide association analysis identifies 20 loci that influence adult height.

Adult height is a model polygenic trait, but there has been limited success in identifying the genes underlying its normal variation. To identify genetic variants influencing adult human height, we used genome-wide association data from 13,665 individuals and genotyped 39 variants in an additional 16,482 samples. We identified 20 variants associated with adult height (P < 5 x 10(-7), with 10 reaching P < 1 x 10(-10)). Combined, the 20 SNPs explain approximately 3% of height variation, with a approximately 5 cm difference between the 6.2% of people with 17 or fewer 'tall' alleles compared to the 5.5% with 27 or more 'tall' alleles. The loci we identified implicate genes in Hedgehog signaling (IHH, HHIP, PTCH1), extracellular matrix (EFEMP1, ADAMTSL3, ACAN) and cancer (CDK6, HMGA2, DLEU7) pathways, and provide new insights into human growth and developmental processes. Finally, our results provide insights into the genetic architecture of a classic quantitative trait.