British association for sexual health and HIV national guideline for the management of anogenital warts in adults (2024).

This guideline offers recommendations on the diagnosis, treatment and health promotion principles needed for the effective management of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related warts at anogenital sites including the external genitals, vagina, cervix, urethra, perianus and anal canal. The guideline is aimed primarily at patients aged 16 years or older presenting to healthcare professionals working in level 3 sexual health services in the United Kingdom. However, the principles of the recommendations may be applied in other care settings, including in primary care, using locally adapted care pathways where appropriate. The management of HPV-related anogenital dysplasia or warts at other extragenital sites is outside the scope of this guideline.

Predictors of starting and stopping chemsex in men who have sex with men in England: findings from the AURAH2 prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chemsex (the use of psychoactive drugs in sexual contexts) has been associated with HIV acquisition and other STIs, so there is benefit in identifying those most likely to start chemsex to offer risk reduction interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). To date, there have been no data from a longitudinal study analysing factors most associated with starting and stopping chemsex. METHODS: The prospective cohort study, Attitudes to and Understanding Risk of Acquisition of HIV over Time (AURAH2), collected 4 monthly and annual online questionnaire data from men who have sex with men (MSM) from 2015 to 2018. We investigate the association of sociodemographic factors, sexual behaviours and drug use with starting and stopping chemsex among 622 men who completed at least one follow-up questionnaire. Poisson models with generalised estimating equations were used to produce risk ratios (RRs) accounting for multiple starting or stopping episodes from the same individual. Multivariable analysis was adjusted for age group, ethnicity, sexual identity and university education. FINDINGS: In the multivariable analysis, the under 40 age group was significantly more likely to start chemsex by the next assessment (RR 1.79, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.86). Other factors which showed significant association with starting chemsex were unemployment (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 4.35), smoking (RR 2.49, 95% CI 1.63 to 3.79), recent condomless sex (CLS), recent STI and postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) use in the past year (RR 2.10, 95% CI 1.33 to 3.30). Age over 40 (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.99), CLS, and use of PEP (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.86) and PrEP (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.78) were associated with lower likelihood of stopping chemsex by the next assessment. INTERPRETATION: Knowledge of these results allows us to identify men most likely to start chemsex, thus providing an opportunity for sexual health services to intervene with a package of risk mitigation measures, especially PrEP use.

Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Most large, prospective studies of the effects of diabetes on mortality have focused on high-income countries where patients have access to reasonably good medical care and can receive treatments to establish and maintain good glycemic control. In those countries, diabetes less than doubles the rate of death from any cause. Few large, prospective studies have been conducted in middle-income countries where obesity and diabetes have become common and glycemic control may be poor. METHODS: From 1998 through 2004, we recruited approximately 50,000 men and 100,000 women 35 years of age or older into a prospective study in Mexico City, Mexico. We recorded the presence or absence of previously diagnosed diabetes, obtained and stored blood samples, and tracked 12-year disease-specific deaths through January 1, 2014. We accepted diabetes as the underlying cause of death only for deaths that were due to acute diabetic crises. We estimated rate ratios for death among participants who had diabetes at recruitment versus those who did not have diabetes at recruitment; data from participants who had chronic diseases other than diabetes were excluded from the main analysis. RESULTS: At the time of recruitment, obesity was common and the prevalence of diabetes rose steeply with age (3% at 35 to 39 years of age and >20% by 60 years of age). Participants who had diabetes had poor glycemic control (mean [±SD] glycated hemoglobin level, 9.0±2.4%), and the rates of use of other vasoprotective medications were low (e.g., 30% of participants with diabetes were receiving antihypertensive medication at recruitment and 1% were receiving lipid-lowering medication). Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with rate ratios for death from any cause of 5.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0 to 6.0) at 35 to 59 years of age, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.3) at 60 to 74 years of age, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.1) at 75 to 84 years of age. Between 35 and 74 years of age, the excess mortality associated with previously diagnosed diabetes accounted for one third of all deaths; the largest absolute excess risks of death were from renal disease (rate ratio, 20.1; 95% CI, 17.2 to 23.4), cardiac disease (rate ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2 to 4.2), infection (rate ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 4.0 to 5.5), acute diabetic crises (8% of all deaths among participants who had previously diagnosed diabetes), and other vascular disease (mainly stroke). Little association was observed between diabetes and mortality from cirrhosis, cancer, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in Mexico, a middle-income country with high levels of obesity, diabetes was common, glycemic control was poor, and diabetes was associated with a far worse prognosis than that seen in high-income countries; it accounted for at least one third of all deaths between 35 and 74 years of age. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others.).

Alcohol and mortality in Russia: prospective observational study of 151,000 adults.

BACKGROUND: Russian adults have extraordinarily high rates of premature death. Retrospective enquiries to the families of about 50,000 deceased Russians had found excess vodka use among those dying from external causes (accident, suicide, violence) and eight particular disease groupings. We now seek prospective evidence of these associations. METHODS: In three Russian cities (Barnaul, Byisk, and Tomsk), we interviewed 200,000 adults during 1999-2008 (with 12,000 re-interviewed some years later) and followed them until 2010 for cause-specific mortality. In 151,000 with no previous disease and some follow-up at ages 35-74 years, Poisson regression (adjusted for age at risk, amount smoked, education, and city) was used to calculate the relative risks associating vodka consumption with mortality. We have combined these relative risks with age-specific death rates to get 20-year absolute risks. FINDINGS: Among 57,361 male smokers with no previous disease, the estimated 20-year risks of death at ages 35-54 years were 16% (95% CI 15-17) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 20% (18-22) for those consuming 1-2·9 bottles per week, and 35% (31-39) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. The corresponding risks of death at ages 55-74 years were 50% (48-52) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 54% (51-57) for those consuming 1-2·9 bottles per week, and 64% (59-69) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. In both age ranges most of the excess mortality in heavier drinkers was from external causes or the eight disease groupings strongly associated with alcohol in the retrospective enquiries. Self-reported drinking fluctuated; of the men who reported drinking three or more bottles of vodka per week who were reinterviewed a few years later, about half (185 of 321) then reported drinking less than one bottle per week. Such fluctuations must have substantially attenuated the apparent hazards of heavy drinking in this study, yet self-reported vodka use at baseline still strongly predicted risk. Among male non-smokers and among females, self-reported heavy drinking was uncommon, but seemed to involve similar absolute excess risks. INTERPRETATION: This large prospective study strongly reinforces other evidence that vodka is a major cause of the high risk of premature death in Russian adults. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union, WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Exhaled carbon monoxide and its associations with smoking, indoor household air pollution and chronic respiratory diseases among 512,000 Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Exhaled carbon monoxide (COex) level is positively associated with tobacco smoking and exposure to smoke from biomass/coal burning. Relatively little is known about its determinants in China despite the population having a high prevalence of smoking and use of biomass/coal. METHODS: The China Kadoorie Biobank includes 512,000 participants aged 30-79 years recruited from 10 diverse regions. We used linear regression and logistic regression methods to assess the associations of COex level with smoking, exposures to indoor household air pollution and prevalent chronic respiratory conditions among never smokers, both overall and by seasons, regions and smoking status. RESULTS: The overall COex level (ppm) was much higher in current smokers than in never smokers (men: 11.5 vs 3.7; women: 9.3 vs 3.2). Among current smokers, it was higher among those who smoked more and inhaled more deeply. Among never smokers, mean COex was positively associated with levels of exposures to passive smoking and to biomass/coal burning, especially in rural areas and during winter. The odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of air flow obstruction (FEV1/FVC ratio<0.7) for never smokers with COex at 7-14 and ≥14 ppm, compared with those having COex<7, were 1.38 (1.31-1.45) and 1.65 (1.52-1.80), respectively (Ptrend<0.001). Prevalence of other self-reported chronic respiratory conditions was also higher among people with elevated COex (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: In adult Chinese, COex can be used as a biomarker for assessing current smoking and overall exposure to indoor household air pollution in combination with questionnaires.

Alcohol consumption in 0.5 million people from 10 diverse regions of China: prevalence, patterns and socio-demographic and health-related correlates.

BACKGROUND: Drinking alcohol has a long tradition in Chinese culture. However, data on the prevalence and patterns of alcohol consumption in China, and its main correlates, are limited. METHODS: During 2004-08 the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited 512,891 men and women aged 30-79 years from 10 urban and rural areas of China. Detailed information on alcohol consumption was collected using a standardized questionnaire, and related to socio-demographic, physical and behavioural characteristics in men and women separately. RESULTS: Overall, 76% of men and 36% of women reported drinking some alcohol during the past 12 months, with 33% of men and 2% of women drinking at least weekly; the prevalence of weekly drinking in men varied from 7% to 51% across the 10 study areas. Mean consumption was 286 g/week and was higher in those with less education. Most weekly drinkers habitually drank spirits, although this varied by area, and beer consumption was highest among younger drinkers; 37% of male weekly drinkers (12% of all men) reported weekly heavy drinking episodes, with the prevalence highest in younger men. Drinking alcohol was positively correlated with regular smoking, blood pressure and heart rate. Among male weekly drinkers, each 20 g/day alcohol consumed was associated with 2 mmHg higher systolic blood pressure. Potential indicators of problem drinking were reported by 24% of male weekly drinkers. CONCLUSION: The prevalence and patterns of drinking in China differ greatly by age, sex and geographical region. Alcohol consumption is associated with a number of unfavourable health behaviours and characteristics.

Physical activity and sedentary leisure time and their associations with BMI, waist circumference, and percentage body fat in 0.5 million adults: the China Kadoorie Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Few large studies in China have investigated total physical activity and sedentary leisure time and their associations with adiposity. OBJECTIVE: We investigated determinants of physical activity and sedentary leisure time and their associations with adiposity in China. DESIGN: A total of 466,605 generally healthy participants (age: 30-79 y, 60% female) in the China Kadoorie Biobank were included in this cross-sectional analysis. Self-reported information on a range of activities was collected by interviewer-administered questionnaire. Physical activity was calculated as metabolic equivalent task hours per day (MET-h/d) spent on work, transportation, housework, and nonsedentary recreation. Sedentary leisure time was quantified as hours per day. Adiposity measures included BMI, waist circumference, and percentage body fat (by bioimpedance analysis). Associations were estimated by linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean physical activity was 22 MET-h/d, and the mean sedentary leisure time was 3.0 h/d. For each sex, physical activity was about one-third lower among professionals/administrators than among factory workers, with intermediate levels for other occupational categories. A 1-SD (14 MET-h/d) greater physical activity was associated with a 0.15-unit (95% CI: 0.14, 0.16) lower BMI (in kg/m(2)), a 0.58-cm (95% CI: 0.55, 0.61) smaller waist circumference, and 0.48 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.50) percentage points less body fat. In contrast, a 1-SD (1.5 h/d) greater sedentary leisure time was associated with a 0.19-unit higher BMI (95% CI: 0.18, 0.20), a 0.57-cm larger waist circumference (95% CI: 0.54, 0.59), and 0.44 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.46) percentage points more body fat. For any given physical activity level, greater sedentary leisure time was associated with a greater prevalence of increased BMI, as was lower physical activity for any given sedentary leisure time. CONCLUSIONS: In adult Chinese, physical activity varies substantially by occupation, and lack of physical activity and excess sedentary leisure time are independently and jointly associated with greater adiposity.

Body mass index and mortality in China: a 15-year prospective study of 220 000 men.

BACKGROUND: In China, there have been few large prospective studies of the associations of body mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality that have simultaneously controlled for biases that can be caused by pre-existing disease and smoking. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 224 064 men, of whom 40 700 died during follow-up between 1990-91 and 2006. Analyses restricted to 142 214 men aged 40-79 years at baseline with no disease history and, to further reduce bias from pre-existing disease, at least 5 years of subsequent follow-up, leaving 17 800 deaths [including 4165 stroke, 1297 coronary heart disease (CHD), 3121 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)]. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) per 5 kg/m(2) calculated within either a lower (15 to <23.5 kg/m(2)) or higher (23.5 to <35 kg/m(2)) range. RESULTS: The association between BMI and all-cause mortality was U-shaped with the lowest mortality at ∼22.5-25 kg/m(2). In the lower range, 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 14% lower mortality (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91); in the upper range, it was associated with 27% higher mortality (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15-1.40). The absolute excess mortality in the lower range was largely accounted for by excess mortality from specific smoking-related diseases: 54% by that for COPD, 12% other respiratory disease, 13% lung cancer, 11% stomach cancer. The excess mortality in the upper BMI range was largely accounted for by excess mortality from specific vascular diseases: 55% by that for stroke, 16% CHD. In this range, 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with ∼50% higher mortality from stroke (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.36-1.92) and CHD (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.12-1.95). CONCLUSIONS: For China, previous evidence may have overestimated the excess mortality at low BMI but underestimated that at high BMI. The main way obesity kills in China appears to be stroke.

Social inequalities, tobacco chewing, and cancer mortality in south India: a case-control analysis of 2,580 cancer deaths among non-smoking non-drinkers.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this work was to describe the relationships between educational level, tobacco chewing, and cancer mortality in south India, among middle-aged adults who never smoked tobacco or drank alcohol, to eliminate confounding by those habits. METHODS: This case-control study was conducted in two areas of Tamil Nadu state. The cases studied were 2,580 lifelong non-smoking non-drinkers who died at age 35-69 years during 1995-1998, with interviews in 1998-2000 of a spouse, neighbour, or close associate, who retrospectively provided information on the education and chewing/other habits of the deceased. Underlying neoplastic cause of death was determined by verbal autopsy. The controls were 429,306 lifelong non-smoking non-drinkers aged 35-69 from these two study areas, interviewed during 1998-2001. RESULTS: Among the controls, prevalence of current tobacco chewing was much higher in those with less education, irrespective of sex, urban/rural residence, or birth year. Compared with never chewers, ever chewers had fivefold higher mortality from mouth cancer (odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval 3.5-6.8), and 1.5 to twofold higher mortality from cancers of the pharynx/larynx/oesophagus combined, stomach, and cervix. Each of these cancers had a strong, independent, inverse association with educational level. CONCLUSION: This study supports a substantial body of evidence that tobacco chewing can cause mouth cancer, and adds to evidence that chewing may increase the risk of cancer at other sites. The analysis suggests a possible link with cervical cancer, but this could have been because of residual confounding by social factors. Avoidance of tobacco chewing would avert many cancer deaths in south India, especially for people who have received relatively little formal education.

Separate and combined associations of body-mass index and abdominal adiposity with cardiovascular disease: collaborative analysis of 58 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines differ about the value of assessment of adiposity measures for cardiovascular disease risk prediction when information is available for other risk factors. We studied the separate and combined associations of body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with risk of first-onset cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We used individual records from 58 cohorts to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) per 1 SD higher baseline values (4.56 kg/m(2) higher BMI, 12.6 cm higher waist circumference, and 0.083 higher waist-to-hip ratio) and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification. Serial adiposity assessments were used to calculate regression dilution ratios. RESULTS: Individual records were available for 221,934 people in 17 countries (14,297 incident cardiovascular disease outcomes; 1.87 million person-years at risk). Serial adiposity assessments were made in up to 63,821 people (mean interval 5.7 years [SD 3.9]). In people with BMI of 20 kg/m(2) or higher, HRs for cardiovascular disease were 1.23 (95% CI 1.17-1.29) with BMI, 1.27 (1.20-1.33) with waist circumference, and 1.25 (1.19-1.31) with waist-to-hip ratio, after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking status. After further adjustment for baseline systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol, corresponding HRs were 1.07 (1.03-1.11) with BMI, 1.10 (1.05-1.14) with waist circumference, and 1.12 (1.08-1.15) with waist-to-hip ratio. Addition of information on BMI, waist circumference, or waist-to-hip ratio to a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model containing conventional risk factors did not importantly improve risk discrimination (C-index changes of -0.0001, -0.0001, and 0.0008, respectively), nor classification of participants to categories of predicted 10-year risk (net reclassification improvement -0.19%, -0.05%, and -0.05%, respectively). Findings were similar when adiposity measures were considered in combination. Reproducibility was greater for BMI (regression dilution ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97) than for waist circumference (0.86, 0.83-0.89) or waist-to-hip ratio (0.63, 0.57-0.70). INTERPRETATION: BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio, whether assessed singly or in combination, do not importantly improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction in people in developed countries when additional information is available for systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and lipids. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation and UK Medical Research Council.

The joint effects of apolipoprotein B, apolipoprotein A1, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol on risk: 3510 cases of acute myocardial infarction and 9805 controls.

AIMS: Plasma levels of apolipoprotein B (apoB), the main surface protein on LDL particles, and LDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are closely correlated and, considered separately, are positive risk factors. Plasma levels of apolipoprotein A(1), the main surface protein on HDL particles, and HDL-C, the amount of cholesterol in those particles, are also closely correlated with each other and, considered separately, are negative risk factors. The interdependence of these four risk factors is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Case-control study among 3510 acute myocardial infarction patients (without prior vascular disease, diabetes, or statin use) in UK hospitals and 9805 controls. Relative risks (age, sex, smoking, and obesity-adjusted) were more strongly related to apoB than to LDL-C and, given apoB, more strongly negatively related to apoA(1) than to HDL-C. The ratio apoB/apoA(1) was uncorrelated with time since symptom onset in cases, was reproducible in samples collected a few years apart in controls (correlation 0.81), and encapsulated almost all the predictive power of these four measurements. Its effect was continuous, substantial throughout the UK normal range [relative risk, top vs. bottom decile of this ratio, 7.3 (95% CI 5.8-9.2)] and varied little with age. The ratio apoB/apoA(1) was substantially more informative about risk (chi(1)(2) = 550) than were commonly used measures such as LDL-C/HDL-C, total/HDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, and total cholesterol (chi(1)(2) = 407, 334, 204, and 105, respectively). Given apoB and apoA(1), the relationship with risk of LDL-C was reversed, and this reversal was strengthened by appropriate allowance for random measurement errors in two correlated variables. Given usual apoB, lower LDL-C (consistent with smaller LDL particles) was associated with higher risk (P < 0.0001). During the first 8 h after symptom onset HDL-C increased by about 10%, precluding reliable assessment of the joint relationship of apoA(1) and pre-onset HDL-C with risk in such retrospective case-control studies. CONCLUSION: Apolipoprotein ratios are more informative about risk than lipid fractions are. This suggests that, among lipoprotein particles of a particular type (LDL or HDL), some smaller and larger subtypes differ in their effects on risk. Direct measurements of even more specific subtypes of lipoprotein particles may be even more informative about risk.

Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: The main associations of body-mass index (BMI) with overall and cause-specific mortality can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. The Prospective Studies Collaboration aimed to investigate these associations by sharing data from many studies. METHODS: Collaborative analyses were undertaken of baseline BMI versus mortality in 57 prospective studies with 894 576 participants, mostly in western Europe and North America (61% [n=541 452] male, mean recruitment age 46 [SD 11] years, median recruitment year 1979 [IQR 1975-85], mean BMI 25 [SD 4] kg/m(2)). The analyses were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and study. To limit reverse causality, the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded, leaving 66 552 deaths of known cause during a mean of 8 (SD 6) further years of follow-up (mean age at death 67 [SD 10] years): 30 416 vascular; 2070 diabetic, renal or hepatic; 22 592 neoplastic; 3770 respiratory; 7704 other. FINDINGS: In both sexes, mortality was lowest at about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). Above this range, positive associations were recorded for several specific causes and inverse associations for none, the absolute excess risks for higher BMI and smoking were roughly additive, and each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was on average associated with about 30% higher overall mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg/m(2) [HR] 1.29 [95% CI 1.27-1.32]): 40% for vascular mortality (HR 1.41 [1.37-1.45]); 60-120% for diabetic, renal, and hepatic mortality (HRs 2.16 [1.89-2.46], 1.59 [1.27-1.99], and 1.82 [1.59-2.09], respectively); 10% for neoplastic mortality (HR 1.10 [1.06-1.15]); and 20% for respiratory and for all other mortality (HRs 1.20 [1.07-1.34] and 1.20 [1.16-1.25], respectively). Below the range 22.5-25 kg/m(2), BMI was associated inversely with overall mortality, mainly because of strong inverse associations with respiratory disease and lung cancer. These inverse associations were much stronger for smokers than for non-smokers, despite cigarette consumption per smoker varying little with BMI. INTERPRETATION: Although other anthropometric measures (eg, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio) could well add extra information to BMI, and BMI to them, BMI is in itself a strong predictor of overall mortality both above and below the apparent optimum of about 22.5-25 kg/m(2). The progressive excess mortality above this range is due mainly to vascular disease and is probably largely causal. At 30-35 kg/m(2), median survival is reduced by 2-4 years; at 40-45 kg/m(2), it is reduced by 8-10 years (which is comparable with the effects of smoking). The definite excess mortality below 22.5 kg/m(2) is due mainly to smoking-related diseases, and is not fully explained.

The prevalence of chronic diseases and major disease risk factors at different ages among 150,000 men and women living in Mexico City: cross-sectional analyses of a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: While most of the global burden from chronic diseases, and especially vascular diseases, is now borne by low and middle-income countries, few large-scale epidemiological studies of chronic diseases in such countries have been performed. METHODS: From 1998-2004, 52 584 men and 106 962 women aged > or =35 years were visited in their homes in Mexico City. Self reported diagnoses of chronic diseases and major disease risk factors were ascertained and physical measurements taken. Age- and sex-specific prevalences and means were analysed. RESULTS: After about age 50 years, diabetes was extremely common - for example, 23.8% of men and 26.9% of women aged 65-74 reported a diagnosis. By comparison, ischaemic heart disease was reported by 4.8% of men and 3.0% of women aged 65-74, a history of stroke by 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively, and a history of cancer by 1.3% and 2.1%. Cancer history was generally more common among women than men - the excess being largest in middle-age, due to breast and cervical cancer. At older ages, the gap narrowed because of an increasing prevalence of prostate cancer. 51% of men and 25% of women aged 35-54 smoked cigarettes, while 29% of men and 41% of women aged 35-54 were obese (i.e. BMI > or =30 kg/m2). The prevalence of treated hypertension or measured blood pressure > or =140/90 mmHg increased about 50% more steeply with age among women than men, to 66% of women and 58% of men aged 65-74. Physical inactivity was highly prevalent but daily alcohol drinking was relatively uncommon. CONCLUSION: Diabetes, obesity and tobacco smoking are highly prevalent among adults living in Mexico City. Long-term follow-up of this and other cohorts will establish the relevance of such factors to the major causes of death and disability in Mexico.

Body mass index, blood pressure, and mortality from stroke: a nationally representative prospective study of 212,000 Chinese men.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite previous investigations, substantial uncertainty remains about the relation between body mass index (BMI) and stroke, especially in populations with a relatively low BMI but a high stroke rate. METHODS: A nationally representative prospective study of mortality included 212,000 Chinese men 40 to 79 years old without known cardiovascular disease in 1990 to 1991 who were followed up for 10 years. Standardized hazard ratios were calculated for stroke mortality by baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) and BMI. RESULTS: Mean SBP and BMI were 124 mm Hg and 21.7 kg/m(2), respectively. During 10 years of follow-up, 5766 stroke deaths were recorded. There were strong, positive relations between BMI and SBP and between SBP and stroke mortality, with a 3-mm Hg higher baseline SBP associated with a 5.6% (95% CI, 5.3% to 6.0%; P<0.00001) higher stroke mortality. The association between BMI and stroke mortality was, however, not linear, with the hazard increasing substantially only for BMI >25 kg/m(2) (P<0.001 for nonlinearity). Approximately 90% of men had a baseline BMI <25 kg/m(2), and among them, BMI was not associated with stroke mortality despite its strong association with BP (which continued to a BMI <18 kg/m(2)). The relation with BMI was similar for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke but appeared to be steeper among lifelong nonsmokers than among current smokers (P=0.01 for difference between slopes) despite similarly positive relations between BMI and SBP and between SBP and stroke risk in both smoking categories. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI was strongly associated with increased stroke mortality only among men who were overweight or obese.

Esophageal cancer and body mass index: results from a prospective study of 220,000 men in China and a meta-analysis of published studies.

Several epidemiological studies have reported on the association between body mass index (BMI) and risk of esophageal cancer, but these were mostly in Western populations where many are overweight or obese. There is little direct evidence about the relationship in China where the mean BMI is relatively low and the disease rate is high. We examined the data from a population-based prospective study of 220,000 Chinese men aged 40-79 without a previous history of cancer (mean BMI 21.7 kg/m(2)), which included 1,082 esophageal cancer deaths during 10 years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for death from esophageal cancer by baseline BMI category were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Even among men with good self-assessed health and BMI >or= 18.5 kg/m(2), there was a strong inverse association between BMI and death from esophageal cancer, with each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI associated with 25% (95%CI: 11-36%) lower esophageal cancer mortality. This inverse association persisted when analysis was restricted to men who had never smoked or when the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. The strength of the relationship was consistent with the pooled estimate for squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus in a meta-analysis of prospective studies (31% lower relative risk per 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI; 95% CI: 25-37%), but contrasted with that for adenocarcinoma which showed a positive association with BMI. Together, these data provide reliable evidence that in many populations low BMI is associated with an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

Blood cholesterol and vascular mortality by age, sex, and blood pressure: a meta-analysis of individual data from 61 prospective studies with 55,000 vascular deaths.

BACKGROUND: Age, sex, and blood pressure could modify the associations of total cholesterol (and its main two fractions, HDL and LDL cholesterol) with vascular mortality. This meta-analysis combined prospective studies of vascular mortality that recorded both blood pressure and total cholesterol at baseline, to determine the joint relevance of these two risk factors. METHODS: Information was obtained from 61 prospective observational studies, mostly in western Europe or North America, consisting of almost 900,000 adults without previous disease and with baseline measurements of total cholesterol and blood pressure. During nearly 12 million person years at risk between the ages of 40 and 89 years, there were more than 55,000 vascular deaths (34,000 ischaemic heart disease [IHD], 12,000 stroke, 10,000 other). Information about HDL cholesterol was available for 150,000 participants, among whom there were 5000 vascular deaths (3000 IHD, 1000 stroke, 1000 other). Reported associations are with usual cholesterol levels (ie, corrected for the regression dilution bias). FINDINGS: 1 mmol/L lower total cholesterol was associated with about a half (hazard ratio 0.44 [95% CI 0.42-0.48]), a third (0.66 [0.65-0.68]), and a sixth (0.83 [0.81-0.85]) lower IHD mortality in both sexes at ages 40-49, 50-69, and 70-89 years, respectively, throughout the main range of cholesterol in most developed countries, with no apparent threshold. The proportional risk reduction decreased with increasing blood pressure, since the absolute effects of cholesterol and blood pressure were approximately additive. Of various simple indices involving HDL cholesterol, the ratio total/HDL cholesterol was the strongest predictor of IHD mortality (40% more informative than non-HDL cholesterol and more than twice as informative as total cholesterol). Total cholesterol was weakly positively related to ischaemic and total stroke mortality in early middle age (40-59 years), but this finding could be largely or wholly accounted for by the association of cholesterol with blood pressure. Moreover, a positive relation was seen only in middle age and only in those with below-average blood pressure; at older ages (70-89 years) and, particularly, for those with systolic blood pressure over about 145 mm Hg, total cholesterol was negatively related to haemorrhagic and total stroke mortality. The results for other vascular mortality were intermediate between those for IHD and stroke. INTERPRETATION: Total cholesterol was positively associated with IHD mortality in both middle and old age and at all blood pressure levels. The absence of an independent positive association of cholesterol with stroke mortality, especially at older ages or higher blood pressures, is unexplained, and invites further research. Nevertheless, there is conclusive evidence from randomised trials that statins substantially reduce not only coronary event rates but also total stroke rates in patients with a wide range of ages and blood pressures.