Predictive models of pregnancy based on data from a preconception cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Can we derive adequate models to predict the probability of conception among couples actively trying to conceive? SUMMARY ANSWER: Leveraging data collected from female participants in a North American preconception cohort study, we developed models to predict pregnancy with performance of ∼70% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Earlier work has focused primarily on identifying individual risk factors for infertility. Several predictive models have been developed in subfertile populations, with relatively low discrimination (AUC: 59-64%). STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Study participants were female, aged 21-45 years, residents of the USA or Canada, not using fertility treatment, and actively trying to conceive at enrollment (2013-2019). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire at enrollment and follow-up questionnaires every 2 months for up to 12 months or until conception. We used data from 4133 participants with no more than one menstrual cycle of pregnancy attempt at study entry. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: On the baseline questionnaire, participants reported data on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and behavioral factors, diet quality, medical history and selected male partner characteristics. A total of 163 predictors were considered in this study. We implemented regularized logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks and gradient boosted decision trees to derive models predicting the probability of pregnancy: (i) within fewer than 12 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model I), and (ii) within 6 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model II). Cox models were used to predict the probability of pregnancy within each menstrual cycle for up to 12 cycles of follow-up (Model III). We assessed model performance using the AUC and the weighted-F1 score for Models I and II, and the concordance index for Model III. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Model I and II AUCs were 70% and 66%, respectively, in parsimonious models, and the concordance index for Model III was 63%. The predictors that were positively associated with pregnancy in all models were: having previously breastfed an infant and using multivitamins or folic acid supplements. The predictors that were inversely associated with pregnancy in all models were: female age, female BMI and history of infertility. Among nulligravid women with no history of infertility, the most important predictors were: female age, female BMI, male BMI, use of a fertility app, attempt time at study entry and perceived stress. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Reliance on self-reported predictor data could have introduced misclassification, which would likely be non-differential with respect to the pregnancy outcome given the prospective design. In addition, we cannot be certain that all relevant predictor variables were considered. Finally, though we validated the models using split-sample replication techniques, we did not conduct an external validation study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Given a wide range of predictor data, machine learning algorithms can be leveraged to analyze epidemiologic data and predict the probability of conception with discrimination that exceeds earlier work. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The research was partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (under grants DMS-1664644, CNS-1645681 and IIS-1914792) and the National Institutes for Health (under grants R01 GM135930 and UL54 TR004130). In the last 3 years, L.A.W. has received in-kind donations for primary data collection in PRESTO from FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, Sandstone Diagnostics and Swiss Precision Diagnostics. L.A.W. also serves as a fibroid consultant to AbbVie, Inc. The other authors declare no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Maternal age at birth and daughter's fecundability.

STUDY QUESTION: Do daughters of older mothers have lower fecundability? SUMMARY ANSWER: In this cohort study of North American pregnancy planners, there was virtually no association between maternal age ≥35 years and daughters' fecundability. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Despite suggestive evidence that daughters of older mothers may have lower fertility, only three retrospective studies have examined the association between maternal age and daughter's fecundability. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Prospective cohort study of 6689 pregnancy planners enrolled between March 2016 and January 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) is an ongoing pre-conception cohort study of pregnancy planners (age, 21-45 years) from the USA and Canada. We estimated fecundability ratios (FR) for maternal age at the participant's birth using multivariable proportional probabilities regression models. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Daughters of mothers ≥30 years were less likely to have previous pregnancies (or pregnancy attempts) or risk factors for infertility, although they were more likely to report that their mother had experienced problems conceiving. The proportion of participants with prior unplanned pregnancies, a birth before age 21, ≥3 cycles of attempt at study entry or no follow-up was greater among daughters of mothers <25 years. Compared with maternal age 25-29 years, FRs (95% CI) for maternal age <20, 20-24, 30-34, and ≥35 were 0.72 (0.61, 0.84), 0.92 (0.85, 1.00), 1.08 (1.00, 1.17), and 1.00 (0.89, 1.12), respectively. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although the examined covariates did not meaningfully affect the associations, we had limited information on the participants' mother. Differences by maternal age in reproductive history, infertility risk factors and loss to follow-up suggest that selection bias may partly explain our results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our finding that maternal age 35 years or older was not associated with daughter's fecundability is reassuring, considering the trend towards delayed childbirth. However, having been born to a young mother may be a marker of low fecundability among pregnancy planners. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): PRESTO was funded by NICHD Grants (R21-HD072326 and R01-HD086742) and has received in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics, FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, and Sandstone Diagnostics. Dr Wise is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: n/a.

Fecundability in relation to use of mobile computing apps to track the menstrual cycle.

STUDY QUESTION: To what extent does the use of mobile computing apps to track the menstrual cycle and the fertile window influence fecundability among women trying to conceive? SUMMARY ANSWER: After adjusting for potential confounders, use of any of several different apps was associated with increased fecundability ranging from 12% to 20% per cycle of attempt. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Many women are using mobile computing apps to track their menstrual cycle and the fertile window, including while trying to conceive. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) is a North American prospective internet-based cohort of women who are aged 21-45 years, trying to conceive and not using contraception or fertility treatment at baseline. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We restricted the analysis to 8363 women trying to conceive for no more than 6 months at baseline; the women were recruited from June 2013 through May 2019. Women completed questionnaires at baseline and every 2 months for up to 1 year. The main outcome was fecundability, i.e. the per-cycle probability of conception, which we assessed using self-reported data on time to pregnancy (confirmed by positive home pregnancy test) in menstrual cycles. On the baseline and follow-up questionnaires, women reported whether they used mobile computing apps to track their menstrual cycles ('cycle apps') and, if so, which one(s). We estimated fecundability ratios (FRs) for the use of cycle apps, adjusted for female age, race/ethnicity, prior pregnancy, BMI, income, current smoking, education, partner education, caffeine intake, use of hormonal contraceptives as the last method of contraception, hours of sleep per night, cycle regularity, use of prenatal supplements, marital status, intercourse frequency and history of subfertility. We also examined the impact of concurrent use of fertility indicators: basal body temperature, cervical fluid, cervix position and/or urine LH. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among 8363 women, 6077 (72.7%) were using one or more cycle apps at baseline. A total of 122 separate apps were reported by women. We designated five of these apps before analysis as more likely to be effective (Clue, Fertility Friend, Glow, Kindara, Ovia; hereafter referred to as 'selected apps'). The use of any app at baseline was associated with 20% increased fecundability, with little difference between selected apps versus other apps (selected apps FR (95% CI): 1.20 (1.13, 1.28); all other apps 1.21 (1.13, 1.30)). In time-varying analyses, cycle app use was associated with 12-15% increased fecundability (selected apps FR (95% CI): 1.12 (1.04, 1.21); all other apps 1.15 (1.07, 1.24)). When apps were used at baseline with one or more fertility indicators, there was higher fecundability than without fertility indicators (selected apps with indicators FR (95% CI): 1.23 (1.14, 1.34) versus without indicators 1.17 (1.05, 1.30); other apps with indicators 1.30 (1.19, 1.43) versus without indicators 1.16 (1.06, 1.27)). In time-varying analyses, results were similar when stratified by time trying at study entry (<3 vs. 3-6 cycles) or cycle regularity. For use of the selected apps, we observed higher fecundability among women with a history of subfertility: FR 1.33 (1.05-1.67). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Neither regularity nor intensity of app use was ascertained. The prospective time-varying assessment of app use was based on questionnaires completed every 2 months, which would not capture more frequent changes. Intercourse frequency was also reported retrospectively and we do not have data on timing of intercourse relative to the fertile window. Although we controlled for a wide range of covariates, we cannot exclude the possibility of residual confounding (e.g. choosing to use an app in this observational study may be a marker for unmeasured health habits promoting fecundability). Half of the women in the study received a free premium subscription for one of the apps (Fertility Friend), which may have increased the overall prevalence of app use in the time-varying analyses, but would not affect app use at baseline. Most women in the study were college educated, which may limit application of results to other populations. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Use of a cycle app, especially in combination with observation of one or more fertility indicators (basal body temperature, cervical fluid, cervix position and/or urine LH), may increase fecundability (per-cycle pregnancy probability) by about 12-20% for couples trying to conceive. We did not find consistent evidence of improved fecundability resulting from use of one specific app over another. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This research was supported by grants, R21HD072326 and R01HD086742, from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, USA. In the last 3 years, Dr L.A.W. has served as a fibroid consultant for AbbVie.com. Dr L.A.W. has also received in-kind donations from Sandstone Diagnostics, Swiss Precision Diagnostics, FertilityFriend.com and Kindara.com for primary data collection and participant incentives in the PRESTO cohort. Dr J.B.S. reports personal fees from Swiss Precision Diagnostics, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors have nothing to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Pesticide residue intake from fruits and vegetables and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study.

Intake of conventionally-grown fruits and vegetables with higher levels of pesticide residue contamination has been associated with poorer semen quality and lower probability of live birth among couples undergoing fertility treatment. We examined the association between dietary intake of pesticide residues and fecundability, the per cycle probability of conception, in a preconception cohort of pregnancy planners. We enrolled women aged 21-45 years who were attempting to conceive without use of fertility treatment into Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO) from June 2013 through September 2019. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire on demographics, lifestyle factors, and medical and reproductive histories, and bimonthly follow-up questionnaires for up to 12 months or until reported conception. Ten days after baseline, participants completed the National Cancer Institute's Diet History Questionnaire II, a validated food frequency questionnaire. Using data from the USDA Pesticide Data Program, we classified fruits and vegetables as having high or low pesticide residues using a validated method. We examined the relation between greater intake of high- and low-pesticide residue fruits and vegetables with fecundability using proportional probabilities regression models, adjusted for potential confounders and accounting for consumption of organic produce. We restricted our analysis to 5234 women who had been attempting conception for ≤6 cycles at study entry, and further stratified by pregnancy attempt time at study entry (<3 vs. 3-6 cycles) to evaluate potential for reverse causation. Intakes of high- and low-pesticide residue fruits and vegetables were not appreciably related to fecundability in the full sample, or among women trying to conceive for <3 cycles at study entry. However, among women trying to conceive for 3-6 cycles at study entry, both high- and low-pesticide residue fruit and vegetable intakes were strongly inversely related to fecundability, indicating potential reverse causation bias. These results do not support the hypothesis that intake of pesticide residues from conventionally-grown fruits and vegetables is harmful to fertility, although non-differential exposure misclassification may have attenuated our findings.

A prospective study of treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and fecundability.

BACKGROUND: Treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia remove precancerous cells from the cervix by excising or ablating the transformation zone. Most studies show no association between cervical intraepithelial neoplasia treatments and fertility outcomes. However, only 2 studies have examined time to pregnancy, both using retrospective study designs, with 1 study showing no association and the other showing a 2-fold increased risk of infertility (time to pregnancy >12 months) following excisional or ablative treatment. OBJECTIVE: We examined the association between cervical intraepithelial neoplasia treatments and fecundability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a prospective cohort study of North American pregnancy planners enrolled during 2013-2019. At baseline, women reported whether they ever had an abnormal Papanicolaou test result, the number of abnormal Papanicolaou test results, and their age at first abnormal Papanicolaou test result. They also reported whether they underwent diagnostic (colposcopy) or treatment (excisional or ablative) procedures, and their age at each procedure. We restricted analyses to 8017 women with 6 or fewer cycles of attempt time at enrollment who reported receiving a Papanicolaou test in the previous 3 years. We estimated fecundability ratios and 95% confidence intervals using proportional probabilities models adjusted for sociodemographics, healthcare use, smoking, number of sexual partners, history of sexually transmitted infections, and human papillomavirus vaccination. RESULTS: A history of abnormal Papanicolaou test results showed little association with fecundability (fecundability ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-1.06). Likewise, receipt of colposcopy or treatment procedures, and time since treatment were not materially associated with fecundability. Results were similar when stratified by age and smoking status. CONCLUSION: We observed no appreciable association of self-reported history of abnormal Papanicolaou test results, colposcopy, treatments for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, or recency of treatment with fecundability. These results agree with the majority of previous studies in indicating little effect of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia treatments on future fertility.

Fecundability in relation to use of fertility awareness indicators in a North American preconception cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the frequency of use of selected fertility awareness indicators and to assess their influence on fecundability. DESIGN: Web-based prospective cohort study. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Female pregnancy planners, aged 21-45 years, attempting conception for ≤6 cycles at study entry. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): We ascertained time to pregnancy, in menstrual cycles, with bimonthly questionnaires. We estimated adjusted fecundability ratios (FRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) using proportional probabilities models, controlling for age, income, education, smoking, intercourse frequency, and other lifestyle and reproductive factors. RESULT(S): A total of 5,688 women were analyzed, with a mean age of 29.9 years and mean time trying of 2.1 cycles at baseline; 30% had ever been pregnant. At baseline, 75% were using one or more fertility indicators (counting days or charting menstrual cycles [71%], measuring basal body temperature [BBT, 21%], monitoring cervical fluid [39%], using urine LH tests [32%], or feeling for changes in position of the cervix [12%]). Women using any fertility indicator at baseline had higher subsequent fecundability (adjusted FR 1.25, 95% CI 1.16-1.35) than those not using any fertility indicators. For each individual indicator, adjusted FRs ranged from 1.28-1.36, where 1.00 would indicate no relation with fecundability. The adjusted FR for women using a combination of charting days, cervical fluid, and urine LH was 1.48 (95% CI 1.31-1.67) relative to women using no fertility indicators. CONCLUSION(S): In a North American preconception cohort study, use of fertility indicators indicating the fertile window was common, and was associated with greater fecundability.

Modifiable life style factors and risk for incident endometriosis.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine, alcohol, smoking and physical activity are known to alter sex steroid synthesis, which may affect hormone-dependent gynaecologic disease risk, such as endometriosis; however, few studies have assessed life style factors prior to endometriosis diagnosis. METHODS: Four hundred and seventy three women, ages 18-44 years, underwent laparoscopy or laparotomy, regardless of clinical indication, at 14 clinic sites, 2007-2009. Women with prior surgically confirmed endometriosis were excluded. Life style factors were assessed prior to surgery. Adjusted risk ratios (RR) of endometriosis by caffeine, alcohol, smoking (serum cotinine), and physical activity were estimated, adjusting for age, marital status, education, race/ethnicity, age at menarche, gravidity, BMI, study site, and other life style factors. RESULTS: There were no associations between women with endometriosis and alcohol consumption (RR 0.9, 95% CI 0.7, 1.3), caffeine consumption (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.8, 1.5), or smoking (serum cotinine <10 vs ≥10 ng/mL; RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7, 1.6). Similar null findings were found between endometriosis and weekly occurrences of physical activity and total walking, moderate, and vigorous activity; a modest trend was found between total daily sitting time and increased endometriosis risk. CONCLUSIONS: This study, which is unique in its capture of life style exposures prior to incident endometriosis diagnosis, largely found no association between alcohol, caffeine, smoking, and physical activity and risk of endometriosis.