Stroke Incidence by Major Pathological Type and Ischemic Subtypes in the Auckland Regional Community Stroke Studies: Changes Between 2002 and 2011.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Major pathological stroke types (ischemic stroke [IS], primary intracerebral hemorrhage [ICH], and subarachnoid hemorrhage) and IS subtypes, have differing risk factors, management, and prognosis. We report changes in major stroke types and IS subtypes incidence during 10 years using data from the ARCOS (Auckland Regional Community Stroke Study) III performed during 12 months in 2002 to 2003 and the fourth ARCOS study (ARCOS-IV) performed in 2011 to 2012. METHODS: ARCOS-III and ARCOS-IV were population-based registers of all new strokes in the greater Auckland region (population aged >15 years, 1 119 192). Strokes were classified into major pathological types (IS, ICH, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and undetermined type). Crude annual age-, sex-, and ethnic-specific stroke incidence with 95% confidence intervals was calculated. ISs were subclassified using TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) criteria into 5 etiologic groups. Rate ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for differences in age-standardized rates between the 2 studies. RESULTS: In ARCOS-IV, there were 1329 (81%) ISs, 211 (13%) ICHs, 79 (5%) subarachnoid hemorrhages, and 24 (1%) undetermined type strokes. The proportional distribution of IS subtypes was 29% cardioembolism, 21% small-vessel occlusion, 15% large-artery atherosclerosis, 5% other determined etiology, and 31% undetermined type. Between 2002 and 2011, age-standardized incidence decreased for subarachnoid hemorrhage (rate ratios, 0.73; 95% confidence intervals, 0.54-0.99) and undetermined type (rate ratios, 0.14; 95% confidence intervals, 0.09-0.22). Rates were stable for IS and ICH. Among IS subtypes, large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel occlusion rates increased significantly. The frequency of all risk factors increased in IS. Ethnic differences were observed for both stroke subtype rates and their risk factor frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: A lack of change in IS and ICH incidence may reflect a trend toward increased incidence of younger strokes. Increased rates of large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel occlusion are associated with increased smoking and high blood pressure. Ethnic differences in the proportional distribution of pathological stroke subtypes suggest differential exposure and susceptibility to risk factors.

30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

BACKGROUND: Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. METHODS: Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Maori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Maori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease.