Associations of Serum Lipid Traits With Fracture and Osteoporosis: A Prospective Cohort Study From the UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reveal inconsistent associations between serum lipid traits and the risks of fractures and osteoporosis in the general population. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analysed data from 414 302 UK Biobank participants (223 060 women and 191 242 men, aged 37-73 years) with serum lipid measurements: apolipoprotein A (Apo A), apolipoprotein B (Apo B), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and lipoprotein A (Lp(a)). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with penalized cubic splines were used to explore potential nonlinear associations of each lipid trait with the risks of fractures and osteoporosis. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, BMI categories and pre-existing cardiovascular disease were conducted. Mediation analyses using the g-formula were performed to quantify to which extent bone mineral density (BMD) may mediate the association between serum lipids and fracture risk. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 13.8 years, 25 918 (6.8%) of the 383 530 participants without prior fracture had incident fracture cases, and 7591 (4.1%) of the 184 919 participants with primary care data and without baseline osteoporosis were diagnosed with osteoporosis. TG had nonlinear associations with fractures and osteoporosis, whereas Apo B, TC and LDL-C had linear associations. There were also nonlinear associations of Apo A and HDL-C with fractures. Individuals in the highest quintiles for Apo A (fracture: HR 1.15 [95% CI 1.10, 1.21]; osteoporosis: HR 1.13 [1.02, 1.25]) and HDL-C (fracture: HR 1.27 [1.20, 1.34]; osteoporosis: HR 1.31 [1.18, 1.46]) were associated with higher risks of fractures and osteoporosis. Conversely, those in the highest quintile for Apo B (fracture: HR 0.85 [0.81, 0.89]; osteoporosis: HR 0.86 [0.79, 0.94]), LDL-C (fracture: HR 0.89 [0.85, 0.93]; osteoporosis: HR 0.91 [0.83, 1.00]) and TG (fracture: HR 0.78 [0.74, 0.82]; osteoporosis: HR 0.75 [0.68, 0.82]) were associated with lower risks. The associations of Apo A (ratio of HR [RHR] 1.05 [1.02, 1.09]) and HDL-C (RHR 1.06 [1.03, 1.09]) with fracture risk were more pronounced in men compared to women. Except for TG and Lp(a), the associations between serum lipids and fractures appear to be partially mediated through BMD (mediation proportions: 5.30% to 40.30%), assuming causality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals a complex interplay between different lipid markers and skeletal health, potentially partially mediated through BMD. Routine lipid profile assessments, including HDL-C and Apo A among other lipid traits, may be integrated into the strategies for fracture risk stratification.

Direct oral anticoagulants versus low-molecular-weight heparin in patients with cancer-associated venous thrombosis: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have demonstrated clinical benefits and better patient adherence over low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) in treating patients with cancer-associated venous thrombosis (CAT). We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of DOACs against LMWH in patients with CAT from the perspective of the Hong Kong healthcare system. Methods: A Markov state-transition model was performed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for DOACs and LMWH in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 patients with CAT over a 5-year lifetime horizon. The model was primarily based on the health states of no event, recurrent venous thromboembolism, bleeding, and death. Transition probabilities, relative risks, and utilities were derived from the literature. Resource cost data were obtained from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses tested the robustness of the results. Results: Relative to LMWH, DOACs were associated with increased QALYs (1.52 versus 1.50) at a lower medical cost of USD 2,232 versus 8,224 in five years. The cost of LMWH was the main contributor to the outcome. Out of 10,000 simulated cases, DOACs were dominant in 15.8% and cost-effective in 42.1%, at the willingness-to-pay threshold of USD 148,392 per additional QALY. Conclusions: DOACs were associated with greater QALY improvements and lower overall costs compared to LMWH. Accounting for uncertainty, DOACs were between cost-effective and dominant in 57.9% of cases. DOACs are a cost-effective alternative to LMWH in the management of CAT in Hong Kong.

Effectiveness and safety of continuous low-molecular-weight heparin versus switching to direct oral anticoagulants in cancer-associated venous thrombosis.

Given the existing uncertainty regarding the effectiveness and safety of switching from low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with cancer-associated venous thrombosis (CAT), we conducted a comprehensive population-based cohort study utilizing electronic health database in Hong Kong. A total of 4356 patients with CAT between 2010 and 2022 were included, with 1700 (39.0%) patients switching to DOAC treatment. Compared to continuous LMWH treatment, switching to DOACs was associated with a significantly lower risk of hospitalization due to venous thromboembolism (HR: 0.49 [95% CI = 0.35-0.68]) and all-cause mortality (HR: 0.67 [95% CI = 0.61-0.74]), with no significant difference in major bleeding (HR: 1.04 [95% CI = 0.83-1.31]) within six months. These findings provide reassurance regarding the effectiveness and safety of switching from LMWH to DOACs among patients with CAT, including vulnerable patient groups.

Antidepressant treatment and mortality in people with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes: UK electronic health record study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is associated with higher rates of premature mortality in people with physical comorbidities, such as type 2 diabetes. Conceptually, the successful treatment of depression in people with type 2 diabetes could prevent premature mortality. AIMS: To investigate the association between antidepressant prescribing and the rates of all-cause and cause-specific (endocrine, cardiovascular, respiratory, cancer, unnatural) mortality in individuals with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes. METHOD: Using UK primary care records between years 2000 and 2018, we completed a nested case-control study in a cohort of people with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes who were starting oral antidiabetic treatment for the first time. We used incident density sampling to identify cases who died and matched controls who remained alive after the same number of days observation. We estimated incidence rate ratios for the association between antidepressant prescribing and mortality, adjusting for demographic characteristics, comorbidities, medication use and health behaviours. RESULTS: We included 5222 cases with a recorded date of death, and 18 675 controls, observed for a median of 7 years. Increased rates of all-cause mortality were associated with any antidepressant prescribing during the observation period (incidence rate ratio 2.77, 95% CI 2.48-3.10). These results were consistent across all causes of mortality that we investigated. CONCLUSIONS: Antidepressant prescribing was highly associated with higher rates of mortality. However, we suspect that this is not a direct causal effect, but that antidepressant treatment is a marker of more severe and unsuccessfully treated depression.

Analysis of Secondhand Smoke Exposure and Myopia Among Children Aged 6 to 8 Years in Hong Kong.

Importance: Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure potentially threatens ocular health; however, its association with myopia is unknown. Objective: To examine the association between SHS exposure and childhood myopia. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional data from the population-based Hong Kong Children Eye Study were used. Data were collected from March 5, 2015, to September 12, 2021, at The Chinese University of Hong Kong Eye Center. Participants included children aged 6 to 8 years. Secondhand smoke exposure was evaluated using a validated questionnaire. All participants underwent comprehensive ophthalmic and physical examinations. Exposure: Secondhand smoke exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Generalized estimating equations were constructed to examine the association of SHS exposure with spherical equivalent and axial length; logistic regression models, with myopia rate; and linear regression models, with myopia onset. Results: A total of 12 630 children (mean [SD] age, 7.37 [0.88] years; 53.2% boys) were included in the analysis. Among the participants, 4092 (32.4%) had SHS exposure. After adjusting for age, sex, parental myopia, body mass index, near-work time, outdoor time, and family income, SHS exposure was associated with greater myopic refraction (ß = -0.09 [95% CI, -0.14 to -0.03]) and longer axial length (ß = 0.05 [95% CI, 0.02-0.08]). Children with SHS exposure were more likely to develop moderate (odds ratio [OR], 1.30 [95% CI, 1.06-1.59]) and high myopia (OR, 2.64 [95% CI, 1.48-4.69]). The association of SHS exposure with spherical equivalence and axial length was magnified in younger children. For each younger year of a child's exposure to SHS, SHS exposure was associated with a 0.07-D decrease in spherical equivalence (ß = 0.07 [95% CI, 0.01-0.13]) and a 0.05-mm increase in axial length (ß = -0.05 [95% CI, -0.08 to -0.01]). Exposure to SHS was associated with an earlier mean (SD) age at onset of myopia (72.8 [0.9] vs 74.6 [0.6] months; P = .01). Every increase in SHS exposure in units of 10 cigarettes per day was associated with greater myopic refraction (ß = -0.07 [95% CI, -0.11 to -0.02]), axial length (ß = 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.06]), and likelihood of developing moderate (OR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.05-1.44]) and high myopia (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.20-2.56]), and earlier myopia onset (ß = -1.30 [95% CI, -2.32 to -0.27]). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cross-sectional study suggest that SHS exposure was associated with greater myopic refraction, longer axial length, greater likelihood of developing moderate and high myopia, and earlier myopia onset. The larger the quantity of SHS exposure and the younger the child, the more advanced myopia development and progression with which SHS exposure is associated.

Global trends in the consumption of benzodiazepines and Z-drugs in 67 countries and regions from 2008 to 2018: a sales data analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To investigate the trends in the consumption of benzodiazepines (BZDs) and Z-drugs at global, regional, and national levels from 2008 to 2018, across 67 countries and regions. METHODS: This cross-sectional descriptive study investigated the consumption of BZDs and Z-drugs analyzed by global pharmaceutical sales data from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database between 2008 and 2018. Consumption was measured in defined daily dose (DDD) per 1000 inhabitants per day (DDD/TID). The global, regional, and national trends were estimated using linear mixed models. Additional analyses were conducted by grouping countries by income level. The association between consumption and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the prevalence of different medical conditions was explored in univariable linear models. RESULTS: BZD consumption decreased annually by -1.88% (95% CI: -2.27%, -1.48%), and Z-drugs increased by + 3.28% (+2.55%, +4.01%). In 2008, the top ten countries for BZD and Z-drug consumption were all European, ranging from 63.69 to 128.24 DDD/TID. Very low levels were found in Russia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, French West Africa, and the Philippines, with DDD/TID < 1. The consumption in high-income countries was much higher than in middle-income countries. The results showed that increased consumption of BZDs and Z-drugs was statistically associated (p < 0.05) with higher GDP and increased prevalence of anxiety, self-harm, neurological disorders, chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct differences in consumption and trends of BZDs and Z-drugs were found across different countries and regions. Further exploration is needed to understand the association and safety of the use of BZDs and Z-drugs in patients with comorbidities.

Trends of polypharmacy among older people in Asia, Australia and the United Kingdom: a multinational population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy among older people represents a global challenge due to its association with adverse drug events. The reported prevalence of polypharmacy varies widely across countries, and is particularly high in Asian countries. However, there is no multinational study using standardised measurements exploring variations in prescribing trends. OBJECTIVE: To compare polypharmacy trends in older people in Asia, Australia and the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Multinational, retrospective, time-trend, observational study using a common study protocol. SETTING: Outpatient and community settings. SUBJECTS: All individuals aged ≥ 65 years between 2013 and 2016. METHODS: We defined polypharmacy as the concomitant use of ≥5 medications for ≥45 days per year. We estimated the annual prevalence of polypharmacy and calculated average annual percentage change (AAPC) to assess the time trends. RESULTS: A total of 1.62 million individuals were included in this study. The highest prevalence of polypharmacy was observed in Hong Kong (46.4%), followed by Taiwan (38.8%), South Korea (32.0%), the United Kingdom (23.5%) and Australia (20.1%) in 2016. For the time trend, the Asian region showed a steady increase, particularly in Hong Kong and South Korea (AAPC: Hong Kong, 2.7%; South Korea, 1.8%; Taiwan, 1.0%). However, Australia and the United Kingdom showed a decreasing trend (Australia, -4.9%; the United Kingdom, -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence in older people was higher in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, with an increasing trend over time, compared with Australia and the United Kingdom. Our findings underline the necessity to monitor polypharmacy among older people in Asia by conducting government-level interventions and introducing medicine-optimisation strategies.

Identifying and visualising multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns in patients in the English National Health Service: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, there is a paucity of multimorbidity and comorbidity data, especially for minority ethnic groups and younger people. We estimated the frequency of common disease combinations and identified non-random disease associations for all ages in a multiethnic population. METHODS: In this population-based study, we examined multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns stratified by ethnicity or race, sex, and age for 308 health conditions using electronic health records from individuals included on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset in England. We included individuals who were older than 1 year and who had been registered for at least 1 year in a participating general practice during the study period (between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015). We identified the most common combinations of conditions and comorbidities for index conditions. We defined comorbidity as the accumulation of additional conditions to an index condition over an individual's lifetime. We used network analysis to identify conditions that co-occurred more often than expected by chance. We developed online interactive tools to explore multimorbidity and comorbidity patterns overall and by subgroup based on ethnicity, sex, and age. FINDINGS: We collected data for 3 872 451 eligible patients, of whom 1 955 700 (50·5%) were women and girls, 1 916 751 (49·5%) were men and boys, 2 666 234 (68·9%) were White, 155 435 (4·0%) were south Asian, and 98 815 (2·6%) were Black. We found that a higher proportion of boys aged 1-9 years (132 506 [47·8%] of 277 158) had two or more diagnosed conditions than did girls in the same age group (106 982 [40·3%] of 265 179), but more women and girls were diagnosed with multimorbidity than were boys aged 10 years and older and men (1 361 232 [80·5%] of 1 690 521 vs 1 161 308 [70·8%] of 1 639 593). White individuals (2 097 536 [78·7%] of 2 666 234) were more likely to be diagnosed with two or more conditions than were Black (59 339 [60·1%] of 98 815) or south Asian individuals (93 617 [60·2%] of 155 435). Depression commonly co-occurred with anxiety, migraine, obesity, atopic conditions, deafness, soft-tissue disorders, and gastrointestinal disorders across all subgroups. Heart failure often co-occurred with hypertension, atrial fibrillation, osteoarthritis, stable angina, myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Spinal fractures were most strongly non-randomly associated with malignancy in Black individuals, but with osteoporosis in White individuals. Hypertension was most strongly associated with kidney disorders in those aged 20-29 years, but with dyslipidaemia, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in individuals aged 40 years and older. Breast cancer was associated with different comorbidities in individuals from different ethnic groups. Asthma was associated with different comorbidities between males and females. Bipolar disorder was associated with different comorbidities in younger age groups compared with older age groups. INTERPRETATION: Our findings and interactive online tools are a resource for: patients and their clinicians, to prevent and detect comorbid conditions; research funders and policy makers, to redesign service provision, training priorities, and guideline development; and biomedical researchers and manufacturers of medicines, to provide leads for research into common or sequential pathways of disease and inform the design of clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, and The Alan Turing Institute.

Association between polypharmacy and depression relapse in individuals with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes: a UK electronic health record study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with physical comorbidities and polypharmacy may be at higher risk of depression relapse, however, they are not included in the 'high risk of relapse' group for whom longer antidepressant treatment durations are recommended. AIMS: In individuals with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), we aimed to investigate the association and interaction between depression relapse and (a) polypharmacy, (b) previous duration of antidepressant treatment. METHOD: This was a cohort study using primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from years 2000 to 2018. We used Cox regression models with penalised B-splines to describe the association between restarting antidepressants and our two exposures. RESULTS: We identified 48 001 individuals with comorbid depression and T2DM, who started and discontinued antidepressant treatment during follow-up. Within 1 year of antidepressant discontinuation, 35% of participants restarted treatment indicating depression relapse. As polypharmacy increased, the rate of restarting antidepressants increased until a maximum of 18 concurrent medications, where individuals were more than twice as likely to restart antidepressants (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.15, 95% CI 1.32-3.51). As the duration of previous antidepressant treatment increased, the rate of restarting antidepressants increased - individuals with a previous duration of ≥25 months were more than twice as likely to restart antidepressants than those who previously discontinued in <7 months (HR = 2.36, 95% CI 2.25-2.48). We found no interaction between polypharmacy and previous antidepressant duration. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy and longer durations of previous antidepressant treatment may be associated with depression relapse following the discontinuation of antidepressant treatment.

Low-dose aspirin does not lower the risk of colorectal cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes taking metformin.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose aspirin and metformin have been individually associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Whether their concurrent use in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear. OBJECTIVE: Among individuals with T2DM taking metformin, we sought to evaluate the association between low-dose aspirin versus no aspirin and the risk of CRC. METHODS: A multiple-database new-user cohort study of patients with T2DM taking metformin was conducted between 2007 and 2010 (Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System [CDARS], Hong Kong) and 2007-2016 (The Health Improvement Network [THIN], UK). The primary outcome was incident CRC. Patients were followed from index date of prescription until the earliest occurrence of an outcome of interest, an incident diagnosis of any cancer, death, or until 31 December 2019. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Estimates were pooled using an inverse variance random effects model, and heterogeneity was assessed using I2 . RESULTS: After one-to-one propensity-score matching, 57,534 patients were included (CDARS = 16,276; THIN = 41,258). The median (IQR) follow-up was 9.3 (6.5-10.7) years in CDARS and 3.2 (1.1-5.8) years in THIN. The concurrent use of low-dose aspirin and metformin was not associated with a lower risk of CRC compared to metformin only (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.75-1.05, I2  = 0%). CONCLUSION: Low-dose aspirin was not associated with a lower risk of CRC in patients with T2DM taking metformin. Our study does not support the routine use of low-dose aspirin in this population.

Safety of two-dose COVID-19 vaccination (BNT162b2 and CoronaVac) in adults with cancer: a territory-wide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has defined a list of adverse events of special interest (AESI) for safety surveillance of vaccines. AESI have not been adequately assessed following COVID-19 vaccination in patients with cancer contributing to vaccine hesitancy in this population. We aimed to evaluate the association between BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines and the risk of AESI in adults with active cancer or a history of cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a territory-wide cohort study using electronic health records managed by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority and vaccination records provided by the Department of Health. Patients with a cancer diagnosis between January 1, 2018, and September 30, 2021, were included and stratified into two cohorts: active cancer and history of cancer. Within each cohort, patients who received two doses of BNT162b2 or CoronaVac were 1:1 matched to unvaccinated patients using the propensity score. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AESI 28 days after the second vaccine dose. RESULTS: A total of 74,878 patients with cancer were included (vaccinated: 25,789 [34%]; unvaccinated: 49,089 [66%]). Among patients with active cancer, the incidence of AESI was 0.31 and 1.02 per 10,000 person-days with BNT162b2 versus unvaccinated patients and 0.13 and 0.88 per 10,000 person-days with CoronaVac versus unvaccinated patients. Among patients with history of cancer, the incidence was 0.55 and 0.89 per 10,000 person-days with BNT162b2 versus unvaccinated patients and 0.42 and 0.93 per 10,000 person-days with CoronaVac versus unvaccinated patients. Neither vaccine was associated with a higher risk of AESI for patients with active cancer (BNT162b2: HR 0.30, 95% CI 0.08-1.09; CoronaVac: 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-1.18) or patients with history of cancer (BNT162b2: 0.62, 95% CI 0.30-1.28; CoronaVac: 0.45, 95% CI 0.21-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: In this territory-wide cohort study of patients with cancer, the incidence of AESI following vaccination with two doses of either BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccines was low. The findings of this study can reassure clinicians and patients with cancer about the overall safety of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac in patients with cancer, which could increase the COVID-19 vaccination rate in this vulnerable group of patients.

Association between antibiotic consumption and colon and rectal cancer development in older individuals: A territory-wide study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics may alter colorectal cancer (CRC) risk due to gut dysbiosis. We aimed to study the specific and temporal effects of various antibiotics on CRC development in older individuals. METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study. Subjects aged 60 years and older who did not have CRC diagnosed on screening/diagnostic colonoscopy diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 were recruited. Exclusion criteria were history of CRC, colectomy, inflammatory bowel disease, and CRC diagnosed within 6 months of index colonoscopy. Exposure was use of any antibiotics up to 5 years before colonoscopy. The primary outcomes were CRC diagnosed >6 m after colonoscopy. Covariates were patient demographics, history of colonic polyps/polypectomy, concomitant medication use (NSAIDs, COX-2 inhibitors, aspirin, and statins), and performance of endoscopy centers (colonoscopy volume and polypectomy rate). Stratified analysis was conducted according to nature of antibiotics and location of cancer. RESULTS: Ninety seven thousand one hundred and sixty-two eligible subjects (with 1026 [1.0%] cases of CRC) were identified, 58,704 (60.4%) of whom were exposed to antibiotics before index colonoscopy. Use of antibiotics was associated with a lower risk of cancer in rectum (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.54-0.76), but a higher risk of cancer in proximal colon (aHR: 1.63, 95%CI: 1.15-2.32). These effects differed as regards the anti-anaerobic/anti-aerobic activity, narrow-/broad-spectrum, and administration route of antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics had divergent effects on CRC development in older subjects, which varied according to the location of cancer, antibiotic class, and administration route.

Global, regional, and national trends in opioid analgesic consumption from 2015 to 2019: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an extremely unbalanced global access to opioid analgesics. We aimed to determine contemporary trends and patterns of opioid analgesic consumption at the global, regional, and national levels. METHODS: We analysed the global pharmaceutical sales data of 66 countries or regions from the IQVIA-Multinational Integrated Data Analysis System database on opioid analgesics between 2015 and 2019. Opioid analgesic consumption was measured in milligram morphine equivalent per 1000 inhabitants per day (MME per 1000/day). The global, regional, and national trend changes were estimated using linear regressions. Factors associated with consumption patterns and trend changes were explored in multivariable linear regression analyses. FINDINGS: Overall opioid analgesic sales in the 66 countries or regions increased from 27·52 MME per 1000/day (16·63-45·54) in 2015 to 29·51 MME per 1000/day (17·85-48·79) in 2019 (difference per year 3·96%, 95% CI 0·26 to 7·80). Sales reduced yearly in North America (-12·84%; 95% CI -15·34 to -10·27) and Oceania (-2·96%; -4·20 to -1·70); increased in South America (28·69%; 7·18 to 54·53), eastern Europe (7·68%; 3·99 to 11·49), Asia (5·74%; 0·61 to 11·14), and western and central Europe (1·64%; 0·52 to 2·78); and did not differ in Africa or central America and the Caribbean. The global opioid consumption patterns were associated with country-level Human Development Index (p=0·040), cancer death rate excluding leukaemia (p=0·0072), and geographical location (p<0·0001). In 2019, opioid analgesic consumption ranged from 0·01 MME per 1000/day to 5·40 MME per 1000/day in the 17 countries and regions in the lowest consumption quartile, despite high income levels and cancer death rates in some of them. INTERPRETATION: Global opioid analgesic consumption increased from 2015 to 2019. The trend changes were distinctive across regions, which could reflect the different actions in response to known issues of opioid use and misuse. Disparities in opioid analgesic consumption remained, indicating potential inadequate access to essential pain relief in countries with low consumption. FUNDING: None.

The comparative effects of metabolic surgery, SGLT2i, or GLP-1RA in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: New antidiabetic agents (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor [SGLT2i] and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist [GLP-1RA]) and metabolic surgery have protective effects on metabolic syndromes. OBJECTIVES: To compare the changes of metabolic parameters and costs among patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes undergoing metabolic surgery and initiating new antidiabetic agents over 12 months. SETTING: Hong Kong Hospital Authority database from 2006-2017. METHODS: This is a population-wide retrospective cohort study consisting of 2616 patients (1810 SGLT2i, 528 GLP-1RA, 278 metabolic surgery). Inverse probability treatment weighting of propensity score was applied to balance baseline covariates of patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes who underwent metabolic surgery, or initiated SGLT2i or GLP-1RA. Metabolic parameters and direct medical costs were measured and compared from baseline to 12 months in metabolic surgery, SGLT2i, and GLP-1RA groups. RESULTS: Patients in all 3 groups had improved metabolic parameters over a 12-month period. Patients with metabolic surgery achieved significantly better outcomes in BMI (-5.39, -.56, -.40 kg/m2, P < .001), % total weight loss (15.16%, 1.34%, 1.63%, P < .001), systolic (-2.21, -.59, 1.28 mm Hg, P < .001) and diastolic (-1.16, .50, -.13 mm Hg, P < .001) blood pressure, HbA1c (-1.80%, -.77%, -.80%, P < .001), triglycerides (-.64, -.11, -.09 mmol/L, P < .001), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (3.08, -1.37, -.41 mL/min/1.73m2, P < .001) after 12 months compared with patients with SGLT2i and GLP1-RA. Although the metabolic surgery group incurred the greatest direct medical costs (US$33,551, US$10,945, US$10,627, P < .001), largely due to the surgery itself and related hospitalization, the total monthly direct medical expenditure of metabolic surgery group became lower than that of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA groups at 7 months. CONCLUSION: Beneficial weight loss and metabolic outcomes at 12 months were observed in all 3 groups, among which the metabolic surgery group showed the most remarkable effects but incurred the greatest medical costs. However, studies with a longer follow-up period are warranted to show long-term outcomes.

Safety and effectiveness of low-dose aspirin for the prevention of gastrointestinal cancer in adults without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between low-dose aspirin and the incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC), gastric cancer (GC), oesophageal cancer (EC) and gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in adults without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Cohort study with propensity score matching of new-users of aspirin to non-users. SETTING: Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System database, Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Adults ≥40 years with a prescription start date of either low-dose aspirin (75-300 mg/daily) or paracetamol (non-aspirin users) between 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2008 without a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the first diagnosis of gastrointestinal cancer (either CRC, GC or EC) and the secondary outcome was GIB. Individuals were followed from index date of prescription until the earliest occurrence of an outcome of interest, an incident diagnosis of any type of cancer besides the outcome, death or until 31 December 2017. A competing risk survival analysis was used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs with death as the competing risk. RESULTS: After matching, 49 679 aspirin and non-aspirin users were included. The median (IQR) follow-up was 10.0 (6.4) years. HRs for low-dose aspirin compared with non-aspirin users were 0.83 for CRC (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.91), 0.77 for GC (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.92) and 0.88 for EC (95% CI, 0.67 to 1.16). Patients prescribed low-dose aspirin had an increased risk of GIB (HR 1.15, 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.20), except for patients prescribed proton pump inhibitors or histamine H2-receptor antagonists (HR 1.03, 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.10). CONCLUSION: In this cohort study of Chinese adults, patients prescribed low-dose aspirin had reduced risks of CRC and GC and an increased risk of GIB. Among the subgroup of patients prescribed gastroprotective agents at baseline, however, the association with GIB was attenuated.

Comorbidity of ADHD and allergic diseases in early adolescence: The role of parental smoking at home.

A growing body of research suggests an association between attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and allergic disorders, but little work has been done to explore the role of external factors such as parental smoking at home in the development of comorbid ADHD and allergic disorders. This study aimed to examine the association between allergic diseases and ADHD adjusted for exposure to parental smoking at home in early adolescents. We recruited 250 male (41.7%) and 350 female (58.3%) adolescents (mean [SD] age, 13.29 [0.52] years) via chain-referral sampling. Their ADHD symptoms were assessed by the parent proxy-report version of the Chinese Strengths and Weaknesses of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity-symptoms and Normal-behaviours (SWAN) rating scale. Data on the participants' history of clinician-diagnosed allergic diseases, family socio-demographics, and parental smoking habit were collected using a parent-completed questionnaire. Regression analyses were performed to examine the associations of interest. The levels of ADHD symptoms were comparable between allergic and non-allergic participants after controlling for child and family demographics and parental smoking at home. Notably, the risk of probable ADHD was particularly high in participants with food allergies (odd ratio = 4.51, p = 0.011) but not in those with allergic rhinitis after adjusting for parental smoking at home. Our findings suggest that second-hand smoke exposure at home is a potential risk factor underlying the link between ADHD and allergic diseases. Current management guidelines should emphasize the importance of early identification and cessation of tobacco smoke exposure for prevention of comorbidity of ADHD and allergic disorders. Clinical Trial Registration (if any): NA.

Evidence to guide the optimal timing for pre-chemotherapy blood tests for early breast, colorectal cancer and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Re-designing services and processes to meet growing demands in chemotherapy services is necessary with increasing treatments. There is little evidence guiding the timing and thresholds to be attained of pre-chemotherapy blood assessments, namely neutrophils. METHODS: A survey was developed and distributed to health professionals in the United Kingdom (UK) to examine current practice in timing and threshold values of neutrophils and platelets before treatment administration. This was followed by a retrospective cohort study, using data from electronic patient record systems; including patients initiating treatment between January 2013 and December 2018, to determine a safe timeframe for blood assessments; comparing neutrophil, platelet, creatinine and bilirubin levels at different time points. RESULTS: The survey captured 25% of hospitals in the UK and variations were apparent in both the timing of assessments and thresholds needed, particularly for neutrophils. 616 (6.5%) of 4007 patients included had neutrophil levels measured twice within 7 days of treatment (with the first level taken beyond 3 days and the second test being within 3 days of treatment- the UK standard). Of the patients that attained an acceptable neutrophil level at their first test, five of the 616 (0.8%) became ineligible for administration from the test 2 level. 23% of patients improved their grade and became eligible for treatment. Little difference was observed for platelets. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that extending the timeframe for blood tests can be safe, however, this practice may cause unnecessary delays for patients if only an early test is relied on for eligibility.

Data-driven identification of ageing-related diseases from electronic health records.

Reducing the burden of late-life morbidity requires an understanding of the mechanisms of ageing-related diseases (ARDs), defined as diseases that accumulate with increasing age. This has been hampered by the lack of formal criteria to identify ARDs. Here, we present a framework to identify ARDs using two complementary methods consisting of unsupervised machine learning and actuarial techniques, which we applied to electronic health records (EHRs) from 3,009,048 individuals in England using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2015 (mean age 49.7 years (s.d. 18.6), 51% female, 70% white ethnicity). We grouped 278 high-burden diseases into nine main clusters according to their patterns of disease onset, using a hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm. Four of these clusters, encompassing 207 diseases spanning diverse organ systems and clinical specialties, had rates of disease onset that clearly increased with chronological age. However, the ages of onset for these four clusters were strikingly different, with median age of onset 82 years (IQR 82-83) for Cluster 1, 77 years (IQR 75-77) for Cluster 2, 69 years (IQR 66-71) for Cluster 3 and 57 years (IQR 54-59) for Cluster 4. Fitting to ageing-related actuarial models confirmed that the vast majority of these 207 diseases had a high probability of being ageing-related. Cardiovascular diseases and cancers were highly represented, while benign neoplastic, skin and psychiatric conditions were largely absent from the four ageing-related clusters. Our framework identifies and clusters ARDs and can form the basis for fundamental and translational research into ageing pathways.

Patterns and factors influencing oral anticoagulant prescription in people with atrial fibrillation and dementia: Results from UK primary care.

AIMS: Oral anticoagulant (OAC) is recommended for preventing stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the OAC utilisation in AF patients with dementia or cognitive impairment (CI) is limited. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of OAC prescriptions in AF patients with dementia/CI and to identify factors associated with OAC treatment within 180 days after dementia/CI diagnosis. METHODS: Using The Health Improvement Network database, the annual trends of OAC between 2000 and 2015 were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with OAC treatment. RESULTS: The prevalence rate of OAC prescriptions increased from 6.1% in 2000 to 45.9% in 2015. Among OAC users, the proportion of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) use increased significantly from 0.1% in 2011 to 33.8% in 2015 (P-trend < 0.001), while the proportion of vitamin K antagonist use decreased by 28.6% from 100% in 2000 to 71.4% in 2015 (P-trend < 0.001). In the multivariable analysis, younger age, very old age, female sex, higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, having a HAS-BLED score ≥3, a history of intracranial bleeding, falls and polypharmacy were significantly associated with lower odds of receiving OAC. CONCLUSIONS: In UK primary care, OAC use increased from 2000 to 2015 in AF patients with dementia/CI, with a substantial increase in use of DOACs. Characteristics related to frailty are associated with lower odds of OAC prescription. Given the increasing use of DOACs in patients with dementia/CI, further studies are needed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of DOACs in this important patient group.

Initial cardiovascular treatment patterns during the first 90 days following an incident cardiovascular event.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the initial cardiovascular prescription patterns in patients after their first cardiovascular events, and to identify factors associated with cardiovascular polypharmacy. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study including patients aged ≥ 45 years with the first record of coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke between 2007 and 2016 using The Health Improvement Network database. This study investigated the patterns of cardiovascular drugs prescribed during the first 90 days after the first cardiovascular events. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between patients' baseline characteristics and cardiovascular polypharmacy (≥5 cardiovascular drugs). RESULTS: A total of 121,600 (59,843 CHD and 61,757 stroke) patients were included in the study. The mean age was 69.5 ± 11.9 years. The proportion of patients who were prescribed 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 drugs and ≥6 drugs were 11.0%, 29.8%, 38.6% and 20.5%, respectively. Factors associated with cardiovascular polypharmacy were sex (female: OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.72-0.76 vs male), age (75-84 years old: OR 0.50, 0.47-0.53 vs 45-54 years old), smoking status (current smoking: OR 1.29, 1.15-1.24 vs never), body mass index (obesity: OR 1.38, 1.34-1.43 vs normal), deprivation status (most deprived: OR 1.09, 1.04-1.14 vs least deprived) and Charlson comorbidity index (index ≥5: OR 1.25, 1.16-1.35 vs index 0). CONCLUSION: Multiple cardiovascular drugs treatment was common in patients with CVD in the UK. High-risk factors of CVD were also associated with cardiovascular polypharmacy. Further studies are warranted to assess the impact of cardiovascular polypharmacy and its interaction on CVD recurrence and mortality.