Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface.

findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 ± 1.4 t CH4). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane. The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term.

Overriding water table control on managed peatland greenhouse gas emissions.

Global peatlands store more carbon than is naturally present in the atmosphere1,2. However, many peatlands are under pressure from drainage-based agriculture, plantation development and fire, with the equivalent of around 3 per cent of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted from drained peatland3-5. Efforts to curb such emissions are intensifying through the conservation of undrained peatlands and re-wetting of drained systems6. Here we report eddy covariance data for carbon dioxide from 16 locations and static chamber measurements for methane from 41 locations in the UK and Ireland. We combine these with published data from sites across all major peatland biomes. We find that the mean annual effective water table depth (WTDe; that is, the average depth of the aerated peat layer) overrides all other ecosystem- and management-related controls on greenhouse gas fluxes. We estimate that every 10 centimetres of reduction in WTDe could reduce the net warming impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions (100-year global warming potentials) by the equivalent of at least 3 tonnes of CO2 per hectare per year, until WTDe is less than 30 centimetres. Raising water levels further would continue to have a net cooling effect until WTDe is within 10 centimetres of the surface. Our results suggest that greenhouse gas emissions from peatlands drained for agriculture could be greatly reduced without necessarily halting their productive use. Halving WTDe in all drained agricultural peatlands, for example, could reduce emissions by the equivalent of over 1 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions.

The potential for spills and leaks of contaminated liquids from shale gas developments.

Rapid growth of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas within the USA and the possibility of shale developments within Europe has created public concern about the risks of spills and leaks associated with the industry. Reports from the Texas Railroad Commission (1999 to 2015) and the Colorado Oil and Gas Commission (2009 to 2015) were used to examine spill rates from oil and gas well pads. Pollution incident records for England and road transport incident data for the UK were examined as an analogue for potential offsite spills associated with transport for a developing shale industry. The Texas and Colorado spill data shows that the spill rate on the well pads has increased over the recorded time period. The most common spill cause was equipment failure. Within Colorado 33% of the spills recorded were found during well pad remediation and random site inspections. Based on data from the Texas Railroad Commission, a UK shale industry developing well pads with 10 lateral wells would likely experience a spill for every 16 well pads developed. The same well pad development scenario is estimated to require at least 2856 tanker movements over two years per well pad. Considering this tanker movement estimate with incident and spill frequency data from UK milk tankers, a UK shale industry would likely experience an incident on the road for every 12 well pads developed and a road spill for every 19 well pads developed. Consequently, should a UK shale industry be developed it is important that appropriate mitigation strategies are in place to minimise the risk of spills associated with well pad activities and fluid transportation movements.

An assessment of the footprint and carrying capacity of oil and gas well sites: The implications for limiting hydrocarbon reserves.

We estimate the likely physical footprint of well pads if shale gas or oil developments were to go forward in Europe and used these estimates to understand their impact upon existing infrastructure (e.g. roads, buildings), the carrying capacity of the environment, and how the proportion of extractable resources maybe limited. Using visual imagery, we calculate the average conventional well site footprints to be 10,800m2 in the UK, 44,600m2 in The Netherlands and 3000m2 in Poland. The average area per well is 541m2/well in the UK, 6370m2/well in The Netherlands, and 2870m2/well in Poland. Average access road lengths are 230m in the UK, 310m in The Netherlands and 250m in Poland. To assess the carrying capacity of the land surface, well pads of the average footprint, with recommended setbacks, were placed randomly into the licensed blocks covering the Bowland Shale, UK. The extent to which they interacted or disrupted existing infrastructure was then assessed. For the UK, the direct footprint would have a 33% probability of interacting with immovable infrastructure, but this would rise to 73% if a 152m setback was used, and 91% for a 609m setback. The minimum setbacks from a currently producing well in the UK were calculated to be 21m and 46m from a non-residential and residential property respectively, with mean setbacks of 329m and 447m, respectively. When the surface and sub-surface footprints were considered, the carrying capacity within the licensed blocks was between 5 and 42%, with a mean of 26%. Using previously predicted technically recoverable reserves of 8.5×1011m3 for the Bowland Basin and a recovery factor of 26%, the likely maximum accessible gas reserves would be limited by the surface carrying capacity to 2.21×1011m3.

Assessing the fugitive emission of CH4 via migration along fault zones - Comparing potential shale gas basins to non-shale basins in the UK.

This study considered whether faults bounding hydrocarbon-bearing basins could be conduits for methane release to the atmosphere. Five basin bounding faults in the UK were considered: two which bounded potential shale gas basins; two faults that bounded coal basins; and one that bounded a basin with no known hydrocarbon deposits. In each basin, two mobile methane surveys were conducted, one along the surface expression of the basin bounding fault and one along a line of similar length but not intersecting the fault. All survey data was corrected for wind direction, the ambient CH4 concentration and the distance to the possible source. The survey design allowed for Analysis of Variance and this showed that there was a significant difference between the fault and control survey lines though a significant flux from the fault was not found in all basins and there was no apparent link to the presence, or absence, of hydrocarbons. As such, shale basins did not have a significantly different CH4 flux to non-shale hydrocarbon basins and non-hydrocarbon basins. These results could have implications for CH4 emissions from faults both in the UK and globally. Including all the corrected fault data, we estimate faults have an emissions factor of 11.5±6.3tCH4/km/yr, while the most conservative estimate of the flux from faults is 0.7±0.3tCH4/km/yr. The use of isotopes meant that at least one site of thermogenic flux from a fault could be identified. However, the total length of faults that penetrate through-basins and go from the surface to hydrocarbon reservoirs at depth in the UK is not known; as such, the emissions factor could not be multiplied by an activity level to estimate a total UK CH4 flux.

Fugitive emissions of methane from abandoned, decommissioned oil and gas wells.

This study considered the fugitive emissions of methane (CH4) from former oil and gas exploration and production wells drilled to exploit conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs onshore in the UK. This study selected from the 66% of all onshore wells in the UK which appeared to be properly decommissioned (abandoned) that came from 4 different basins and were between 8 and 79 years old. The soil gas above each well was analysed and assessed relative to a nearby control site of similar land use and soil type. The results showed that of the 102 wells considered 30% had soil gas CH4 at the soil surface that was significantly greater than their respective control. Conversely, 39% of well sites had significant lower surface soil gas CH4 concentrations than their respective control. We interpret elevated soil gas CH4 concentrations to be the result of well integrity failure, but do not know the source of the gas nor the route to the surface. Where elevated CH4 was detected it appears to have occurred within a decade of it being drilled. The flux of CH4 from wells was 364 ± 677 kg CO2eq/well/year with a 27% chance that the well would have a negative flux to the atmosphere independent of well age. This flux is low relative to the activity commonly used on decommissioned well sites (e.g. sheep grazing), however, fluxes from wells that have not been appropriately decommissioned would be expected to be higher.

The flux of radionuclides in flowback fluid from shale gas exploitation.

This study considers the flux of radioactivity in flowback fluid from shale gas development in three areas: the Carboniferous, Bowland Shale, UK; the Silurian Shale, Poland; and the Carboniferous Barnett Shale, USA. The radioactive flux from these basins was estimated, given estimates of the number of wells developed or to be developed, the flowback volume per well and the concentration of K (potassium) and Ra (radium) in the flowback water. For comparative purposes, the range of concentration was itself considered within four scenarios for the concentration range of radioactive measured in each shale gas basin, the groundwater of the each shale gas basin, global groundwater and local surface water. The study found that (i) for the Barnett Shale and the Silurian Shale, Poland, the 1 % exceedance flux in flowback water was between seven and eight times that would be expected from local groundwater. However, for the Bowland Shale, UK, the 1 % exceedance flux (the flux that would only be expected to be exceeded 1 % of the time, i.e. a reasonable worst case scenario) in flowback water was 500 times that expected from local groundwater. (ii) In no scenario was the 1 % exceedance exposure greater than 1 mSv-the allowable annual exposure allowed for in the UK. (iii) The radioactive flux of per energy produced was lower for shale gas than for conventional oil and gas production, nuclear power production and electricity generated through burning coal.

Assessing the probability of carbon and greenhouse gas benefit from the management of peat soils.

This study proposes a method for assessing the probability that land management interventions will lead to an improvement in the carbon sink represented by peat soils. The method is able to: combine studies of different carbon uptake and release pathways in order to assess changes on the overall carbon or greenhouse gas budget; calculate the probability of the management or restoration leading to an improvement in the budget; calculate the uncertainty in that probability estimate; estimate the equivalent number of complete budgets available from the combination of the literature; test the difference in the outcome of different land management interventions; and provide a method for updating the predicted probabilities as new studies become available. Using this methodology, this study considered the impact of: afforestation, managed burning, drainage, drain-blocking, grazing removal; and revegetation, on the carbon budget of peat soils in the UK. The study showed that afforestation, drain-blocking, revegetation, grazing removal and cessation of managed burning would bring a carbon benefit, whereas deforestation, managed burning and drainage would bring a disbenefit. The predicted probabilities of a benefit are often equivocal as each management type or restoration often leads to increase in uptake in one pathway while increasing losses in another.