Genome-wide Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Risk of Glioma and Molecular Subtypes.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the contribution of many risk variants to provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile. Since sample sizes of glioma genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remain modest, there is a need to efficiently capture genetic risk using available data. METHODS: We applied a method based on continuous shrinkage priors (PRS-CS) to model the joint effects of over 1 million common variants on disease risk and compared this to an approach (PRS-CT) that only selects a limited set of independent variants that reach genome-wide significance (P<5×10-8). PRS models were trained using GWAS stratified by histological (10,346 cases, 14,687 controls) and molecular subtype (2,632 cases, 2,445 controls), and validated in two independent cohorts. RESULTS: PRS-CS was generally more predictive than PRS-CT with a median increase in explained variance (R2) of 24% (interquartile range=11-30%) across glioma subtypes. Improvements were pronounced for glioblastoma (GBM), with PRS-CS yielding larger odds ratios (OR) per standard deviation (OR=1.93, P=2.0×10-54 vs. OR=1.83, P=9.4×10-50) and higher explained variance (R2=2.82% vs. R2=2.56%). Individuals in the 80th percentile of the PRS-CS distribution had significantly higher risk of GBM (0.107%) at age 60 compared to those with average PRS (0.046%, P=2.4×10-12). Lifetime absolute risk reached 1.18% for glioma and 0.76% for IDH wildtype tumors for individuals in the 95th PRS percentile. PRS-CS augmented the classification of IDH mutation status in cases when added to demographic factors (AUC=0.839 vs. AUC=0.895, PΔAUC=6.8×10-9). CONCLUSIONS: Genome-wide PRS has potential to enhance the detection of high-risk individuals and help distinguish between prognostic glioma subtypes.

Association of immunoglobulin E levels with glioma risk and survival.

Background: Previous epidemiological studies have reported an association of serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels with reduced glioma risk, but the association between IgE and glioma prognosis is not well characterized. This study aimed to examine how sex, tumor subtype, and IgE class modulate the association of serum IgE levels with glioma risk and survival. Methods: We conducted a case-control study using participants from the University of California, San Francisco Adult Glioma Study (1997-2010). Serum IgE levels for total, respiratory and food allergy were measured in adults diagnosed with glioma (n=1,696) and cancer-free controls (n=1,135) matched based on age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Logistic regression was adjusted for patient demographics to assess the association between IgE levels and glioma risk. Multivariable Cox regression adjusted for patient-specific and tumor-specific factors compared survival between the elevated and normal IgE groups. Results: Elevated total IgE was associated with reduced risk of IDH wildtype (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.54-0.78) and IDH mutant glioma (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.50-0.85). In multivariable Cox regression, elevated respiratory IgE was associated with improved survival for IDH wildtype glioma (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.67-0.91). The reduction in mortality risk was more pronounced in females (HR=0.71, 95% CI: 0.53-0.96) than in males (HR=0.80, 95% CI: 0.66-0.97), with improvements in median survival of 6.2 months (P<.001) and 1.6 months (P=0.003), respectively. Conclusion: Elevated serum IgE was associated with improved prognosis for IDH wildtype glioma, with a more pronounced protective effect in females. These results suggest a possible sexual dimorphism and antitumor activity of IgE-mediated immune responses.

Genome-wide Polygenic Risk Scores Predict Risk of Glioma and Molecular Subtypes.

Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) aggregate the contribution of many risk variants to provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile. Since sample sizes of glioma genome-wide association studies (GWAS) remain modest, there is a need to find efficient ways of capturing genetic risk factors using available germline data. Methods: We developed a novel PRS (PRS-CS) that uses continuous shrinkage priors to model the joint effects of over 1 million polymorphisms on disease risk and compared it to an approach (PRS-CT) that selects a limited set of independent variants that reach genome-wide significance (P<5×10-8). PRS models were trained using GWAS results stratified by histological (10,346 cases, 14,687 controls) and molecular subtype (2,632 cases, 2,445 controls), and validated in two independent cohorts. Results: PRS-CS was consistently more predictive than PRS-CT across glioma subtypes with an average increase in explained variance (R2) of 21%. Improvements were particularly pronounced for glioblastoma tumors, with PRS-CS yielding larger effect sizes (odds ratio (OR)=1.93, P=2.0×10-54 vs. OR=1.83, P=9.4×10-50) and higher explained variance (R2=2.82% vs. R2=2.56%). Individuals in the 95th percentile of the PRS-CS distribution had a 3-fold higher lifetime absolute risk of IDH mutant (0.63%) and IDH wildtype (0.76%) glioma relative to individuals with average PRS. PRS-CS also showed high classification accuracy for IDH mutation status among cases (AUC=0.895). Conclusions: Our novel genome-wide PRS may improve the identification of high-risk individuals and help distinguish between prognostic glioma subtypes, increasing the potential clinical utility of germline genetics in glioma patient management.