Projected Time for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer Under Various Intervention Scenarios: Age-Period-Cohort Macrosimulation Study.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization aims for the global elimination of cervical cancer, necessitating modeling studies to forecast long-term outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This paper introduces a macrosimulation framework using age-period-cohort modeling and population attributable fractions to predict the timeline for eliminating cervical cancer in Taiwan. METHODS: Data for cervical cancer cases from 1997 to 2016 were obtained from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Future incidence rates under the current approach and various intervention strategies, such as scaled-up screening (cytology based or human papillomavirus [HPV] based) and HPV vaccination, were projected. RESULTS: Our projections indicate that Taiwan could eliminate cervical cancer by 2050 with either 70% compliance in cytology-based or HPV-based screening or 90% HPV vaccination coverage. The years projected for elimination are 2047 and 2035 for cytology-based and HPV-based screening, respectively; 2050 for vaccination alone; and 2038 and 2033 for combined screening and vaccination approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The age-period-cohort macrosimulation framework offers a valuable policy analysis tool for cervical cancer control. Our findings can inform strategies in other high-incidence countries, serving as a benchmark for global efforts to eliminate the disease.

Performance measures of 8,169,869 examinations in the National Breast Cancer Screening Program in Taiwan, 2004-2020.

BACKGROUND: The benefits of mammographic screening have been shown to include a decrease in mortality due to breast cancer. Taiwan's Breast Cancer Screening Program is a national screening program that has offered biennial mammographic breast cancer screening for women aged 50-69 years since 2004 and for those aged 45-69 years since 2009, with the implementation of mobile units in 2010. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance results of the program with changes in the previous (2004-2009) and latter (2010-2020) periods. METHODS: A cohort of 3,665,078 women who underwent biennial breast cancer mammography screenings from 2004 to 2020 was conducted, and data were obtained from the Health Promotion Administration, Ministry of Health and Welfare of Taiwan. We compared the participation of screened women and survival rates from breast cancer in the earlier and latter periods across national breast cancer screening programs. RESULTS: Among 3,665,078 women who underwent 8,169,869 examinations in the study population, the screened population increased from 3.9% in 2004 to 40% in 2019. The mean cancer detection rate was 4.76 and 4.08 cancers per 1000 screening mammograms in the earlier (2004-2009) and latter (2010-2020) periods, respectively. The 10-year survival rate increased from 89.68% in the early period to 97.33% in the latter period. The mean recall rate was 9.90% (95% CI: 9.83-9.97%) in the early period and decreased to 8.15% (95%CI, 8.13-8.17%) in the latter period. CONCLUSIONS: The evolution of breast cancer screening in Taiwan has yielded favorable outcomes by increasing the screening population, increasing the 10-year survival rate, and reducing the recall rate through the participation of young women, the implementation of a mobile unit service and quality assurance program, thereby providing historical evidence to policy makers to plan future needs.

Eradicating Helicobacter pylori via 13C-urea breath screening to prevent gastric cancer in indigenous communities: a population-based study and development of a family index-case method.

OBJECTIVE: Screening and eradication of Helicobacter pylori help reduce disparities in the incidence of gastric cancer. We aimed to evaluate its acceptability and feasibility in the indigenous communities and develop a family index-case method to roll out this programme. DESIGN: We enrolled residents aged 20-60 years from Taiwanese indigenous communities to receive a course of test, treat, retest and re-treat initial treatment failures with the 13C-urea breath tests and four-drug antibiotic treatments. We also invited the family members of a participant (constituting an index case) to join the programme and evaluated whether the infection rate would be higher in the positive index cases. RESULTS: Between 24 September 2018 and 31 December 2021, 15 057 participants (8852 indigenous and 6205 non-indigenous) were enrolled, with a participation rate of 80.0% (15 057 of 18 821 invitees). The positivity rate was 44.1% (95% CI 43.3% to 44.9%). In the proof-of-concept study with 72 indigenous families (258 participants), family members of a positive index case had 1.98 times (95% CI 1.03 to 3.80) higher prevalence of H. pylori than those of a negative index case. The results were replicated in the mass screening setting (1.95 times, 95% CI 1.61 to 2.36) when 1115 indigenous and 555 non-indigenous families were included (4157 participants). Of the 6643 testing positive, 5493 (82.6%) received treatment. According to intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses, the eradication rates were 91.7% (89.1% to 94.3%) and 92.1% (89.2% to 95.0%), respectively, after one to two courses of treatment. The rate of adverse effects leading to treatment discontinuation was low at 1.2% (0.9% to 1.5%). CONCLUSION: A high participation rate, a high eradication rate of H. pylori and an efficient rollout method indicate that a primary prevention strategy is acceptable and feasible in indigenous communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03900910.

Forecast of a future leveling of the incidence trends of female breast cancer in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in Taiwan. The age-standardized incidence rate has doubled in just 20 years, causing considerable concern to health professionals and the general public. This study used an ensemble of age-period-cohort models to estimate breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan from 1997 to 2016 and project trends up to 2035. The (truncated) world standard population (World Health Organization 2000) proportions (age groups: 25-29, 30-34, …, 80-84, and older than 85 years) were used to calculate age-standardized incidence rates. The age-standardized incidence rate from 1997 (60.33/100,000 population) to 2016 (128.20/100,000 population) increased rapidly. The projection is that the increase in the age-standardized incidence will subsequently slow and exhibit a plateau in 2031 (151.32/100,000 population). From 2026 to 2035, the age-specific incidence rates for women older than 55 years old (postmenopausal breast cancer) are projected to increase with larger percentage increments for older women. A future leveling of female breast cancer incidence trends in Taiwan is anticipated. The majority of the patients with breast cancer in the future will be women aged 55 years and older. Education on lifestyle recommendations and mammography screening is required to reduce the burden of breast cancer. The results should have implications for other countries which are also confronted with the same public health problem of rapidly increasing breast cancer incidences.