Overestimation of contralateral hilar lymph node metastasis in non-metastatic non-small cell lung cancer and its predictive model: HAM.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Metastasis of non-metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NMNSCLC) to contralateral hilar lymph nodes (CHLN) eliminates the opportunity for radical therapy. This study aims to analyze whether CHLN metastasis in NMNSCLC is commonly overestimated in clinical practice and to establish a predictive model for enhanced precision. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 834 pathologically confirmed NMNSCLC patients. Monitoring of treatment responses and regular ≥ 1 year CT follow-up was used to determine the nature of CHLN. Lasso regression was used to select predictive factors, and a multivariate binary logistic regression model (HAM) was constructed. Internal validation was performed using ten-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The CHLN metastasis rate was 4.4% among the NMNSCLC patients. The positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity for PET-CT diagnosis were 36.8% and 67.5%, while for CT they are 44.8% and 70.2%, respectively. The five optimal predictive factors (emphysema or bullae, central-type lung cancer, short diameter of CHLN, calcification and SUVmax) were used to develop the HAM model. The Area under curve (AUC) values for PET-CT, CT, and HAM model were 0.81, 0.83, and 0.96, respectively. The F1 scores for PET-CT and CT were 0.48 and 0.55, respectively, while the maximum F1 score of our model was 0.73, with corresponding PPV and sensitivity of 66.7%, and 81.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CHLN metastasis is rare in NMNSCLC patients. PET-CT diagnosis significantly overestimates CHLN metastasis and the HAM model improves clinical decision-making in this study. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these conclusions.

Synthetic lethality of combined ULK1 defection and p53 restoration induce pyroptosis by directly upregulating GSDME transcription and cleavage activation through ROS/NLRP3 signaling.

BACKGROUND: High expression of ubiquitin ligase MDM2 is a primary cause of p53 inactivation in many tumors, making it a promising therapeutic target. However, MDM2 inhibitors have failed in clinical trials due to p53-induced feedback that enhances MDM2 expression. This underscores the urgent need to find an effective adaptive genotype or combination of targets. METHODS: Kinome-wide CRISPR/Cas9 knockout screen was performed to identify genes that modulate the response to MDM2 inhibitor using TP53 wild type cancer cells and found ULK1 as a candidate. The MTT cell viability assay, flow cytometry and LDH assay were conducted to evaluate the activation of pyroptosis and the synthetic lethality effects of combining ULK1 depletion with p53 activation. Dual-luciferase reporter assay and ChIP-qPCR were performed to confirm that p53 directly mediates the transcription of GSDME and to identify the binding region of p53 in the promoter of GSDME. ULK1 knockout / overexpression cells were constructed to investigate the functional role of ULK1 both in vitro and in vivo. The mechanism of ULK1 depletion to activate GSMDE was mainly investigated by qPCR, western blot and ELISA. RESULTS: By using high-throughput screening, we identified ULK1 as a synthetic lethal gene for the MDM2 inhibitor APG115. It was determined that deletion of ULK1 significantly increased the sensitivity, with cells undergoing typical pyroptosis. Mechanistically, p53 promote pyroptosis initiation by directly mediating GSDME transcription that induce basal-level pyroptosis. Moreover, ULK1 depletion reduces mitophagy, resulting in the accumulation of damaged mitochondria and subsequent increasing of reactive oxygen species (ROS). This in turn cleaves and activates GSDME via the NLRP3-Caspase inflammatory signaling axis. The molecular cascade makes ULK1 act as a crucial regulator of pyroptosis initiation mediated by p53 activation cells. Besides, mitophagy is enhanced in platinum-resistant tumors, and ULK1 depletion/p53 activation has a synergistic lethal effect on these tumors, inducing pyroptosis through GSDME directly. CONCLUSION: Our research demonstrates that ULK1 deficiency can synergize with MDM2 inhibitors to induce pyroptosis. p53 plays a direct role in activating GSDME transcription, while ULK1 deficiency triggers upregulation of the ROS-NLRP3 signaling pathway, leading to GSDME cleavage and activation. These findings underscore the pivotal role of p53 in determining pyroptosis and provide new avenues for the clinical application of p53 restoration therapies, as well as suggesting potential combination strategies.

Longitudinal on-treatment circulating tumor DNA as a biomarker for real-time dynamic risk monitoring in cancer patients: The EP-SEASON study.

Recurrence risks of cancer patient can change during treatment as a result of treatment-related tumor evolution. However, biomarkers that can monitor these changes are lacking. Here, we investigated whether tracking circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics through liquid biopsy can inform real-time recurrence risk. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) provides an ideal model where cell-free Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA (cfEBV DNA), a ctDNA, can be sensitively detected. We conducted the EP-SEASON study (NCT03855020) and prospectively recruited 1,000 NPC patients undergoing per-protocol cfEBV DNA assessments at 11 time points and receiving sequential chemo-radiotherapy. Longitudinal cfEBV DNA displayed distinct patterns during neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Despite the prognostic significance of cfEBV DNA at each time point, real-time recurrence risks changed in sync with cfEBV DNA dynamics. Furthermore, we identified phenotypes of whole-course ctDNA changing dynamics associated with different survival outcomes. In conclusion, tracking longitudinal on-treatment ctDNA can forecast real-time recurrence risk, facilitating risk-adapted, individualized patient management.

Thyroid dysfunction in Chinese nasopharyngeal carcinoma after anti-PD-1 therapy and its association with treatment response.

BACKGROUND: Programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) blockade therapies have demonstrated efficacy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Thyroid dysfunction is among the most common immune-related adverse events. This study aimed to explore the clinical pattern of thyroid dysfunction and its relationship with survival marker in nonmetastatic NPC after immunotherapy. METHODS: From January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2021, 165 pairs of nonmetastatic NPC patients (165 with and 165 without anti-PD-1 immunotherapy) matched by the propensity score matching method were included in this study. Thyroid function was assessed retrospectively before the first treatment and during each immunotherapy cycle. RESULTS: The spectrum of thyroid dysfunction was different between the immunotherapy and control groups (P < 0.001). Compared with the control group, patients in the immunotherapy group developed more hypothyroidism (14.545% vs. 7.273%), less hyperthyroidism (10.909% vs. 23.636%), and a distinct pattern, biphasic thyroid dysfunction (3.030% vs. 0%). Immunotherapy also accelerates the onset of hypothyroidism, which was earlier with a median onset time difference of 32 days (P < 0.001). Patients who acquired thyroid dysfunction during immunotherapy had better complete biological response to treatment (OR, 10.980; P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: For nonmetastatic NPC, thyroid dysfunction was associated with better response to treatment in immunotherapy but not in routine treatment. Thyroid function could be used as a predictor for survival and should be under regular and intensive surveillance in clinical practice of anti-PD-1 immunotherapy for nonmetastatic NPC.

Cisplatin-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy improved the survival of locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma after induction chemotherapy by reducing early treatment failure.

PURPOSE: The aims of this study focusing on Locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC) were mainly two-fold: on the one hand, to establish a cut-off value to differentiate early and late failure based on prognosis after recurrence or metastasis; and on the other hand, to investigate the duration of concurrent cisplatin benefit over follow-up time. The results of our study have the potential to guide clinical practice and follow-up. METHODS: In total, 3123 patients with stage III-IVa NPC receiving Induction chemotherapy followed by concurrent cisplatin or not were analysed. The cut-off value of treatment failure was calculated using the minimum P-value approach. Random survival forest (RSF) model was to simulate the cumulative probabilities of treatment failure (locoregional recurrence and /or distant metastasis) over-time, as well as the monthly time-specific, event-occurring probabilities, for patients at different treatment groups. RESULTS: Based on subsequent prognosis, early locoregional failure (ELRF) should be defined as recurrence within 14 months (P = 1.47 × 10 - 3), and early distant failure (EDF) should be defined as recurrence within 20 months (P = 1.95 × 10 - 4). A cumulative cisplatin dose (CCD) > 200 mg/m2 independently reduced the risk of EDF (hazard ratio, 0.351; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.169-0.732; P = 0.005). Better failure-free survival (FFS) and overall survival (OS) were observed in concurrent chemotherapy settings ([0 mg/m2 vs. 1-200 mg/m2 vs. >200 mg/m2]: FFS: 70.4% vs. 74.4% vs. 82.6%, all P < 0.03; OS: 79.5% vs. 83.8% vs. 90.8%, all P < 0.01). In the monthly analysis, treatment failure mainly occurred during the first 4 years, and the risk of distant failure in patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy never exceeded that of patients without concurrent chemotherapy. CONCLUSION: Locoregional failure that developed within 14 months and/or distant failure within 20 months had poorer subsequent survival. Concurrent chemotherapy provides a significant FFS benefit, primarily by reducing EDF, translating into a long-term OS benefit.

Contribution of insurance status to the association between marital status and cancer-specific survival: a mediation analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the extent to which marriage influences cancer-specific survival (CSS) by influencing the insurance status among patients with common solid cancers and the feasibility of reducing the survival gap caused by marriage by increasing private insurance coverage for unmarried patients. SETTING: A retrospective cohort study with patients retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results programme. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with nine common solid cancers diagnosed between 2007 and 2016 were included. Patients were excluded if their marital status, insurance status, socioeconomical status, stage or cause of death was unavailable, if survival time was less than 1 month, or if they were younger than 18 years at the time of diagnosis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was CSS, which was compared between married and unmarried individuals. Mediation analyses were conducted to determine the contribution of insurance status to the association between marriage and CSS. RESULTS: Married patients had better CSS than those unmarried (time ratio 1.778; 95% CI 1.758 to 1.797). Private health insurance was a key factor mediating the association between marital status and CSS (proportion mediated (PM), 17%; 95% CI 17% to 17.1%). The PM ranges from 10.7% in prostate cancer to 20% in kidney cancer. The contribution of private insurance to the association between marital status and CSS was greater among women than among men (PM 18.5% vs 16.7%). The mediating effect of private insurance was the greatest for the comparison between married and separated individuals (PM 25.6%; 95% CI 25.3% to 25.8%) and smallest for the comparison between married and widowed individuals (PM 11.0%; 95% CI 10.9% to 11.1%). CONCLUSIONS: 17% of the marital disparities in CSS are mediated by private insurance coverage. Increasing private insurance coverage for unmarried patients may reduce the survival gap related to marital status and sex. However, it is unclear whether better publicly funded insurance would have the same effect.

Improving on-treatment risk stratification of cancer patients with refined response classification and integration of circulating tumor DNA kinetics.

BACKGROUND: Significant intertumoral heterogeneity exists as antitumor treatment is introduced. Heterogeneous therapeutic responses are conventionally evaluated by imaging examinations based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST); nevertheless, there are increasing recognitions that they do not fully capture patient clinical benefits. Currently, there is a paucity of data regarding the clinical implication of biological responses assessed by liquid biopsy of on-treatment circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). Here, we investigated whether biological response evaluated by ctDNA kinetics added critical information to the RECIST, and whether integrating on-treatment biological response information refined risk stratification of cancer patients. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included 821 patients with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated nasopharynx of head and neck cancer (NPC) receiving sequential neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and chemoradiotherapy (CRT), who had pretreatment and on-treatment cfEBV DNA and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) surveillance. Biological responses evaluated by cfEBV DNA were profiled and compared with conventional MRI-based RECIST evaluation. The inverse probability weighting (IPW)-adjusted survival analysis was performed for major survival endpoints. The Cox proportional hazard regression [CpH]-based model was developed to predict the on-treatment ctDNA-based individualized survival. RESULTS: Of 821 patients, 71.4% achieved complete biological response (cBR) upon NAC completion. RECIST-based response evaluations had 25.3% discordance with ctDNA-based evaluations. IPW-adjusted survival analysis revealed that cfEBV DNApost-NAC was a preferential prognosticator for all endpoints, especially for distant metastasis. In contrast, radiological response was more preferentially associated with locoregional recurrence. Intriguingly, cfEBV DNApost-NAC further stratified RECIST-responsive and non-responsive patients; RECIST-based non-responsive patients with cBR still derived substantial clinical benefits. Moreover, detectable cfEBV DNApost-NAC had 83.6% prediction sensitivity for detectable post-treatment ctDNA, which conferred early determination of treatment benefits. Finally, we established individualized risk prediction models and demonstrated that introducing on-treatment ctDNA significantly refined risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: Our study helps advance the implementation of ctDNA-based testing in therapeutic response evaluation for a refined risk stratification. The dynamic and refined risk profiling would tailor future liquid biopsy-based risk-adapted personalized therapy.

WTAP-mediated m6A modification of lncRNA DIAPH1-AS1 enhances its stability to facilitate nasopharyngeal carcinoma growth and metastasis.

As the most predominant RNA epigenetic regulation in eukaryotic cells, N6-methyladenosine (m6A) plays a critical role in human tumorigenesis and cancer progression. However, the biological function and molecular mechanism of m6A regulation in naso-pharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remain elusive. Here, we showed that Wilms' tumor 1-associating protein (WTAP) expression was apparently upregulated in NPC, and increased WTAP was associated with poor prognosis. WTAP upregulated in NPC was fine-tuned by KAT3A-mediated H3K27 acetylation. Functionally, WTAP was required for the growth and metastasis of NPC. Mechanistically, lncRNA DIAPH1-AS1 was identified as a bona fide m6A target of WTAP. WTAP-mediated m6A modification of DIAPH1-AS1 enhanced its stability relying on the m6A reader IGF2BP2-dependent pathway. Furthermore, DIAPH1-AS1 acted as a molecular adaptor that promoted MTDH-LASP1 complex formation and upregulated LASP1 expression, ultimately facilitating NPC growth and metastasis. Thus, WTAP-mediated DIAPH1-AS1 m6A methylation is required for NPC tumorigenesis and metastasis.

Development of a Nomogram Model for Treatment of Elderly Patients with Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

(1) Purpose: This study aims to explore risk-adapted treatment for elderly patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC) according to their pretreatment risk stratification and the degree of comorbidity. (2) Methods: A total of 583 elderly LA-NPC patients diagnosed from January 2011 to January 2018 are retrospectively studied. A nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) is constructed based on multivariate Cox regression analysis. The performance of the model is evaluated by using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve and Harrell concordance index (C-index). Then, the entire cohort is divided into different risk groups according to the nomogram cutoff value determined by X-tile analysis. The degree of comorbidities is assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Finally, survival rates are estimated and compared by the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. (3) Results: A nomogram for DFS is constructed with T/N classification, Epstein-Barr virus DNA and albumin. The nomogram shows well prognostic performance and significantly outperformed the tumor-node-metastasis staging system for estimating DFS (AUC, 0.710 vs. 0.607; C-index, 0.668 vs. 0.585; both p < 0.001). The high-risk group generated by nomogram has significantly poorer survival compared with the low-risk group (3-year DFS, 76.7% vs. 44.6%, p < 0.001). For high-risk patients with fewer comorbidities (CCI = 2), chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy is associated with significantly better survival (p < 0.05) than radiotherapy alone. (4) Conclusion: A prognostic nomogram for DFS is constructed with generating two risk groups. Combining risk stratification and the degree of comorbidities can guide risk-adapted treatment for elderly LA-NPC patients.

Artificial intelligence for assisting cancer diagnosis and treatment in the era of precision medicine.

Over the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) has contributed substantially to the resolution of various medical problems, including cancer. Deep learning (DL), a subfield of AI, is characterized by its ability to perform automated feature extraction and has great power in the assimilation and evaluation of large amounts of complicated data. On the basis of a large quantity of medical data and novel computational technologies, AI, especially DL, has been applied in various aspects of oncology research and has the potential to enhance cancer diagnosis and treatment. These applications range from early cancer detection, diagnosis, classification and grading, molecular characterization of tumors, prediction of patient outcomes and treatment responses, personalized treatment, automatic radiotherapy workflows, novel anti-cancer drug discovery, and clinical trials. In this review, we introduced the general principle of AI, summarized major areas of its application for cancer diagnosis and treatment, and discussed its future directions and remaining challenges. As the adoption of AI in clinical use is increasing, we anticipate the arrival of AI-powered cancer care.

Liquid biopsy posttreatment surveillance in endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a cost-effective strategy to integrate circulating cell-free Epstein-Barr virus DNA.

BACKGROUND: The optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) remains unclear. Circulating cell-free Epstein-Barr virus (cfEBV) DNA has been recognized as a promising biomarker to facilitate early detection of NPC recurrence. Therefore, we aim to determine whether integrating circulating cfEBV DNA into NPC follow-up is cost-effective. METHODS: For each stage of asymptomatic nonmetastatic NPC patients after complete remission to primary NPC treatment, we developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of the following surveillance strategies: routine follow-up strategy, i.e., (1) routine clinical physical examination; routine imaging strategies, including (2) routine magnetic resonance imaging plus computed tomography plus bone scintigraphy (MRI + CT + BS); and (3) routine 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT); cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies, including (4) cfEBV DNA-guided MRI + CT + BS and (5) cfEBV DNA-guided PET/CT. Clinical probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from published studies or databases. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: For all disease stages, cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies demonstrated similar survival benefits but were considerably more economical than routine imaging strategies. They only required approximately one quarter of the number of imaging studies compared with routine imaging strategies to detect one recurrence. Specifically, cfEBV DNA-guided MRI + CT + BS was most cost-effective for stage II (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $57,308/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) and stage III ($46,860/QALY) patients, while cfEBV DNA-guided PET/CT was most cost-effective for stage IV patients ($62,269/QALY). However, routine follow-up was adequate for stage I patients due to their low recurrence risk. CONCLUSIONS: The cfEBV DNA-guided imaging strategies are effective and cost-effective follow-up methods in NPC. These liquid biopsy-based strategies offer evidence-based, stage-specific surveillance modalities for clinicians and reduce disease burden for patients.

Assessment of Modifiable Factors for the Association of Marital Status With Cancer-Specific Survival.

Importance: Married patients with cancer have better cancer-specific survival than unmarried patients. Increasing the early diagnosis and definitive treatment of cancer among unmarried patients may reduce the survival gap. Objectives: To evaluate the extent to which marriage is associated with cancer-specific survival, stage at diagnosis, and treatment among patients with 9 common solid cancers and to recommend methods for reducing the survival gap. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective, population-based cohort study included patients older than 18 years who were diagnosed with 1 of 9 common cancers between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2016. Patient data were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Statistical analyses were performed from August 1 to October 1, 2020. Exposures: Marital status, classified as married and unmarried (including single, separated, divorced, widowed, and unmarried patients or domestic partners). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the time ratio (TR) of cancer-specific survival (married vs unmarried). Mediation analyses were conducted to determine the extent to which the association of marriage with cancer-specific survival was mediated by stage at diagnosis and treatment. Results: This study included 1 733 906 patients (894 379 [51.6%] women; 1 067 726 [61.6%] married; mean [SD] age, 63.76 [12.60] years). Multivariate analyses found that those who were married were associated with better cancer-specific survival than unmarried patients (TR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.35-1.37). Early diagnosis in breast cancer, colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, and melanoma mediated the association between marital status and cancer-specific survival (breast cancer: proportion mediated [PM], 11.4%; 95% CI, 11.2%-11.6%; colorectal cancer: PM, 10.9%; 95% CI, 10.7%-11.2%; endometrial cancer: PM, 12.9%; 95% CI, 12.5%-13.3%; melanoma: PM, 12.0%; 95% CI, 11.7-12.4%). Surgery mediated the association between marital status and cancer-specific survival in lung (PM, 52.2%; 95% CI, 51.9%-52.4%), pancreatic (PM, 28.9%; 95% CI, 28.6%-29.3%), and prostate (PM, 39.3%; 95% CI, 39.0%-39.6%) cancers. Chemotherapy mediated the association of marital status with cancer-specific survival in lung (PM, 37.7%; 95% CI, 37.6%-37.9%) and pancreatic (PM, 28.6%; 95% CI, 28.4%-28.9%) cancers. Improved cancer-specific survival associated with marriage was greater among men than women (men: TR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.25-1.28; women: TR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.19-1.21). The contribution of receiving an early diagnosis and treatment with surgery or chemotherapy to the association between marital status and cancer-specific survival was greater among men than women (early diagnosis: PM, 21.7% [95% CI, 21.5%-21.9%] vs PM, 20.3% [95% CI, 20.2%-20.4%]; surgery: PM, 26.6% [95% CI, 26.4%-26.7%] vs PM, 11.1% [95% CI, 11.0%-11.2%]; chemotherapy: PM, 6.8% [95% CI, 6.7%-6.8%] vs PM, 5.1% [95% CI, 5.0%-5.2%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, survival disparities associated with marital status were attributable to early diagnosis in breast, colorectal, and endometrial cancers as well as melanoma and to treatment-related variables in lung, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. The findings also suggest that marriage may play a greater protective role in the cancer-specific survival of men than of women.

Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for predicting temporal lobe injury after intensity-modulated radiotherapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A large registry-based retrospective study from China.

PURPOSE: To develop predictive models with dosimetric and clinical variables for temporal lobe injury (TLI) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data of 8194 NPC patients who received IMRT-based treatment were retrospectively reviewed. TLI was diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging. Dosimetric factors were selected by penalized regression and machine learning, with area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) calculated. Cox proportional hazards models containing the most predictive dosimetric factor with/without clinical variables were performed. A nomogram was generated as a visualization of Cox regression for predicting TLI-free survival. RESULTS: During median follow-up of 66.8 months (interquartile range [IQR] 54.2-82.2 months), 12.1% of patients (989/8194) developed TLI. Median latency from IMRT to TLI was 36 months (IQR 28-47 months). D0.5cc (dose delivered to 0.5-cm3 temporal-lobe volume) was the most predictive dosimetric factor (AUC: 0.799). Tolerance dose for 5% and 50% probabilities to develop TLI in 5 years were 65.06 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI]: 64.19-65.92) and 89.75 Gy (95% CI: 87.39-92.11), respectively. A nomogram comprising age, T stage, and D0.5cc significantly outperformed the model with only D0.5cc in predicting TLI (C-index: 0.78 vs. 0.737 in train set; 0.775 vs. 0.73 in test set; both P < 0.001). The nomogram-defined high-risk group had worse 5-year TLI-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: D0.5cc of 65.06 Gy was the tolerance dose of the temporal lobe. Reducing D0.5cc decreased risk of TLI, especially in older patients with advanced T stage. The nomogram could predict TLI precisely and allow individualized follow-up management.

Development and validation of a web-based calculator to predict individualized conditional risk of site-specific recurrence in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of 10,058 endemic cases.

BACKGROUND: Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time. Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking, we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web-based calculator to predict individualized, conditional site-specific recurrence risk. METHODS: Using an NPC-specific database with a big-data intelligence platform, 10,058 endemic patients with non-metastatic stage I-IVA NPC receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated. Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival (COS), conditional disease-free survival (CDFS), conditional locoregional relapse-free survival (CLRRFS), conditional distant metastasis-free survival (CDMFS), and conditional NPC-specific survival (CNPC-SS) were calculated. Covariate-adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting. A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent, non-metastatic stage I-IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (n = 601) at another institution. RESULTS: The median follow-up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months. The 5-year COS, CDFS, CLRRFS, CDMFS, and CNPC-SS increased from 86.2%, 78.1%, 89.8%, 87.3%, and 87.6% at diagnosis to 87.3%, 87.7%, 94.4%, 96.0%, and 90.1%, respectively, for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis. Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time, whereas an ever-increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time. Notably, the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer. For individualized CS predictions, we developed a web-based model to estimate the conditional risk of local (C-index, 0.656), regional (0.667), bone (0.742), lung (0.681), and liver (0.711) recurrence, which significantly outperformed the current staging system (P < 0.001). The performance of this web-based model was further validated using an external validation cohort (median follow-up, 61.3 months), with C-indices of 0.672, 0.736, 0.754, 0.663, and 0.721, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date. Moreover, we established a web-based calculator to predict the CS of site-specific recurrence, which may help to tailor individualized, risk-based, time-adapted follow-up strategies.

An optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for cancer survivors based on an individualized risk-based approach.

The optimal post-treatment surveillance strategy that can detect early recurrence of a cancer within limited visits remains unexplored. Here we adopt nasopharyngeal carcinoma as the study model to establish an approach to surveillance that balances the effectiveness of disease detection versus costs. A total of 7,043 newly-diagnosed patients are grouped according to a clinic-molecular risk grouping system. We use a random survival forest model to simulate the monthly probability of disease recurrence, and thereby establish risk-based surveillance arrangements that can maximize the efficacy of recurrence detection per visit. Markov decision-analytic models further validate that the risk-based surveillance outperforms the control strategies and is the most cost-effective. These results are confirmed in an external validation cohort. Finally, we recommend the risk-based surveillance arrangement which requires 10, 11, 13 and 14 visits for group I to IV. Our surveillance strategies might pave the way for individualized and economic surveillance for cancer survivors.

Prognostic potential of liquid biopsy tracking in the posttreatment surveillance of patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The current study was performed to investigate whether circulating cell-free Epstein-Barr virus DNA (cfEBV DNA) would be useful for posttreatment surveillance in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). METHODS: The authors identified a total of 1984 nondisseminated NPC patients from an institutional big-data research platform. Blood samples were collected within 3 months of the completion of radiotherapy and every 3 to 12 months thereafter for cfEBV DNA analysis. Patients were followed until disease recurrence was detected or for a median of 60 months. Diagnostic performance was assessed by calculating the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy based on the clinical detection of disease recurrence by conventional surveillance modalities (imaging scans and pathological examination). RESULTS: During follow-up, a total of 767 patients (38.7%) had detectable cfEBV DNA. The recurrence rate among these patients was 63.8% (489 of 767 patients), which was significantly higher than that in patients with undetectable cfEBV DNA (8.6%; 105 of 1217 patients). cfEBV DNA sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 68.8%, 80.0%, and 78.2%, respectively, for local recurrence; 80.2%, 80.0%, and 85.9%, respectively, for regional recurrence; and 91.1%, 80.0%, and 92.8%, respectively, for distant metastasis. cfEBV DNA was found to have higher sensitivity for the detection of extrapulmonary metastases (94.9%-96.5%) compared with pulmonary metastases (78.4%). It is interesting to note that among the patients with disease recurrence with detectable cfEBV DNA, positive cfEBV DNA results preceded radiological and/or clinical evidence of disease recurrence by a median of 2.3 months (interquartile range, 0.1-9.5 months). In addition, of the 278 cfEBV DNA-positive patients who did not develop disease recurrence, 227 (81.7%) had transiently positive cfEBV DNA that fell to undetectable levels during long-term monitoring. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma cfEBV DNA in patients with NPC appears to be an early sign of tumor recurrence, especially extrapulmonary metastases.

Identification of cross-talk between m6A and 5mC regulators associated with onco-immunogenic features and prognosis across 33 cancer types.

Methylation of RNA and DNA, notably in the forms of N6-methyladenosine (m6A) and 5-methylcytosine (5mC) respectively, plays crucial roles in diverse biological processes. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the cross-talk between m6A and 5mC regulators. Thus, we systematically performed a pan-cancer genomic analysis by depicting the molecular correlations between m6A and 5mC regulators across ~ 11,000 subjects representing 33 cancer types. For the first time, we identified cross-talk between m6A and 5mC methylation at the multiomic level. Then, we further established m6A/5mC epigenetic module eigengenes by combining hub m6A/5mC regulators and informed a comprehensive epigenetic state. The model reflected status of the tumor-immune-stromal microenvironment and was able to predict patient survival in the majority of cancer types. Our results lay a solid foundation for epigenetic regulation in human cancer and pave a new road for related therapeutic targets.

Competing risk nomograms for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy era: A big-data, intelligence platform-based analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Lacking quantitative evaluations of competing risk data of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), we aimed to evaluate the probability of NPC- and other cause-specific mortality (NPC-SM; OCSM) and develop competing risk nomograms to quantify survival differences. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Using the institutional big-data intelligence platform, 7251 NPC patients undergoing intensity-modulated radiotherapy between 2009-2014 were identified to establish nomograms based on Fine and Gray's competing risk analysis. RESULTS: The 5-year NPC-SM and OCSM of the cohort were 13.1% and 1.2%, respectively, and elevated 5-year OCSMs were observed in patients aged ≥65 years (5.5%) or with severe comorbidities (4.3%). Age was most predictive of OCSM: patients aged 55-64 and ≥65 years exhibited subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of 2.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64-4.4; P < .001) and 5.78 (95% CI, 3.32-10.08; P < .001), respectively. Comorbidity measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was also strongly predictive of OCSM: patients with CCI scores of 1 and ≥2 exhibited SHRs of 2.33 (95% CI, 1.46-3.71; P < .001) and 2.58 (95% CI, 1.16-5.73; P = .020), respectively. All validated factors were integrated into the competing nomograms: age, sex, histology type, tumor and node stages, plasma Epstein-Barr virus-DNA level, lactate dehydrogenase level, and C-reactive protein (CRP) level into the NPC-SM model (concordance [c]-index = 0.743); and age, CCI, Albumin level, and CRP level into the OCSM model (c-index = 0.793). CONCLUSION: OCSM represents a significant competing event for NPC-SM in elderly patients and patients with comorbidities. We present the first prognostic nomograms to quantify competing risks, which may help to tailor individualized treatment.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Routine Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Follow-Up of Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma After Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To estimate the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of routine head and neck magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the follow-up of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma after definitive intensity modulated radiation therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two Markov models were developed to compare the cost and effectiveness of 3 strategies: routine clinical surveillance without serial imaging and routine annual and biannual MRI surveillance in the first 5 years. Two hypothetical cohorts of patients with primary stage T1-2 or T3-4 nasopharyngeal carcinoma who achieved complete remission after radical treatment and remained asymptomatic were analyzed. Baseline probabilities, transition probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from published studies. Markov models were used to calculate life-time costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Model robustness was addressed via univariable and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: In T1-2 patients, surveillance strategies utilizing routine MRI provided few QALYs compared with non-MRI clinical follow-up (annual MRI, 0.022 QALYs; biannual MRI, 0.035 QALYs), whereas the costs associated with MRI surveillance were considerable. Compared with clinical follow-up, the ICERs for annual and biannual MRI strategies were $328,389 and $403,857 per QALY. In T3-4 patients, annual and biannual MRI surveillance provided 0.052 and 0.088 incremental QALYs, with ICERs of $156,204 and $169,772 per QALY, respectively. Model conclusions were robust and remained stable in 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Routine MRI surveillance was not cost-effective owing to the high cost of MRI coupled with low rates of failure in T1-2 patients, whereas annual MRI surveillance was the dominant and possibly a cost-effective strategy for T3-4 patients, depending on the social willingness to pay.

Incidence and dosimetric parameters for brainstem necrosis following intensity modulated radiation therapy in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: To clarify the incidence of brainstem toxicity and perform a dose-volume analysis for the brainstem after long-term follow-up of a large cohort of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who underwent intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: All patients with NPC treated with IMRT at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between April 2009 and March 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 1544 patients with follow-up >12months and detailed treatment plan data were included. Radiotherapy was administered using the simultaneous integrated boost technique in 2.0-2.48Gy per fractions/28-33 fractions. Brainstem necrosis was defined as lesions with high signal intensity on T2-weighted images and low signal intensity on T1-weighted images, with or without enhancement after administration of contrast in follow-up MRI. RESULTS: After median follow-up of 79.7months (range, 12.2-85.6months), 2/1544 (0.13%) patients developed brainstem necrosis after intervals of 12.3 and 18.5months. Actuarial incidence of brainstem necrosis was 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.13% and 0.13% after 1, 2, 3 and 5years, respectively. Overall, 384 (24.9%), 153 (9.9%), 67 (4.3%), 39 (2.5%), 78 (5.1%), and 114 (7.4%) patients had excessive doses of Dmax≥64Gy, D1cc>59Gy, D2cc>59Gy, aV50>5.9cc, aV55>2.7cc and aV60>0.9cc respectively, of whom only two developed brainstem necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Brainstem necrosis is rare in NPC. The definitive criteria based on conventional radiotherapy cannot accurately predict the occurrence of brainstem necrosis after IMRT, thus more flexible definitive criteria with strict restrictions need to be defined.