Development and Validation of an 18-Gene Urine Test for High-Grade Prostate Cancer.

Importance: Benefits of prostate cancer (PCa) screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) alone are largely offset by excess negative biopsies and overdetection of indolent cancers resulting from the poor specificity of PSA for high-grade PCa (ie, grade group [GG] 2 or greater). Objective: To develop a multiplex urinary panel for high-grade PCa and validate its external performance relative to current guideline-endorsed biomarkers. Design, Setting, and Participants: RNA sequencing analysis of 58 724 genes identified 54 markers of PCa, including 17 markers uniquely overexpressed by high-grade cancers. Gene expression and clinical factors were modeled in a new urinary test for high-grade PCa (MyProstateScore 2.0 [MPS2]). Optimal models were developed in parallel without prostate volume (MPS2) and with prostate volume (MPS2+). The locked models underwent blinded external validation in a prospective National Cancer Institute trial cohort. Data were collected from January 2008 to December 2020, and data were analyzed from November 2022 to November 2023. Exposure: Protocolized blood and urine collection and transrectal ultrasound-guided systematic prostate biopsy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multiple biomarker tests were assessed in the validation cohort, including serum PSA alone, the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial risk calculator, and the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as well as derived multiplex 2-gene and 3-gene models, the original 2-gene MPS test, and the 18-gene MPS2 models. Under a testing approach with 95% sensitivity for PCa of GG 2 or greater, measures of diagnostic accuracy and clinical consequences of testing were calculated. Cancers of GG 3 or greater were assessed secondarily. Results: Of 761 men included in the development cohort, the median (IQR) age was 63 (58-68) years, and the median (IQR) PSA level was 5.6 (4.6-7.2) ng/mL; of 743 men included in the validation cohort, the median (IQR) age was 62 (57-68) years, and the median (IQR) PSA level was 5.6 (4.1-8.0) ng/mL. In the validation cohort, 151 (20.3%) had high-grade PCa on biopsy. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values were 0.60 using PSA alone, 0.66 using the risk calculator, 0.77 using PHI, 0.76 using the derived multiplex 2-gene model, 0.72 using the derived multiplex 3-gene model, and 0.74 using the original MPS model compared with 0.81 using the MPS2 model and 0.82 using the MPS2+ model. At 95% sensitivity, the MPS2 model would have reduced unnecessary biopsies performed in the initial biopsy population (range for other tests, 15% to 30%; range for MPS2, 35% to 42%) and repeat biopsy population (range for other tests, 9% to 21%; range for MPS2, 46% to 51%). Across pertinent subgroups, the MPS2 models had negative predictive values of 95% to 99% for cancers of GG 2 or greater and of 99% for cancers of GG 3 or greater. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a new 18-gene PCa test had higher diagnostic accuracy for high-grade PCa relative to existing biomarker tests. Clinically, use of this test would have meaningfully reduced unnecessary biopsies performed while maintaining highly sensitive detection of high-grade cancers. These data support use of this new PCa biomarker test in patients with elevated PSA levels to reduce the potential harms of PCa screening while preserving its long-term benefits.

Natural History of Indeterminate Liver Nodules in Patients with Advanced Liver Disease: A Multi-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Indeterminate liver nodules (ILNs) are frequently encountered on diagnostic imaging after positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance results, but their natural history remains unclear. METHODS: We conducted a multi-center retrospective cohort study among patients with ≥1 newly detected LI-RADS 3 (LR-3) lesion ≥1 cm or LI-RADS 4 (LR-4) lesion of any size (per LI-RADS v2018) between January 2018 and December 2019. Patients were followed with repeat imaging at each site per institutional standard of care. Multivariable Fine-Gray models were used to evaluate associations between potential risk factors and patient-level time-to-HCC diagnosis, with death and liver transplantation as competing risks. RESULTS: Of 307 patients with ILNs, 208 had LR-3 lesions, 83 had LR-4 lesions, and 16 had both LR-3 and LR-4 lesions. HCC incidence rates for patients with LR-3 and LR-4 lesions were 110 (95%CI 70 - 150) and 420 (95%CI 310 - 560) per 1000 person-years, respectively. In multivariable analysis, incident HCC among patients with LR-3 lesions was associated with older age, thrombocytopenia (platelet count ≤150 x109/L), and elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels. Among those with LR-4 lesions, incident HCC was associated with a maximum lesion diameter >1 cm. Although most patients had follow-up CT or MRI, 13.7% had no follow-up imaging and another 14.3% had follow-up ultrasound only. CONCLUSION: ILNs have a high but variable risk of HCC, with 4-fold higher risk in patients with LR-4 lesions than those with LR-3 lesions, highlighting a need for accurate risk stratification tools and close follow-up in this population.

Clinical development of a blood biomarker using apolipoprotein-A2 isoforms for early detection of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: We have previously reported apolipoprotein A2-isoforms (apoA2-is) as candidate plasma biomarkers for early-stage pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was the clinical development of apoA2-is. METHODS: We established a new enzyme-linked immunosorbent sandwich assay for apoA2-is under the Japanese medical device Quality Management System requirements and performed in vitro diagnostic tests with prespecified end points using 2732 plasma samples. The clinical equivalence and significance of apoA2-is were compared with CA19-9. RESULTS: The point estimate of the area under the curve to distinguish between pancreatic cancer (n = 106) and healthy controls (n = 106) was higher for apoA2-ATQ/AT [0.879, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.832-0.925] than for CA19-9 (0.849, 95% CI 0.793-0.905) and achieved the primary end point. The cutoff apoA2-ATQ/AT of 59.5 µg/mL was defined based on a specificity of 95% in 2000 healthy samples, and the reliability of specificities was confirmed in two independent healthy cohorts as 95.3% (n = 106, 95% CI 89.4-98.0%) and 95.8% (n = 400, 95% CI 93.3-97.3%). The sensitivities of apoA2-ATQ/AT for detecting both stage I (47.4%) and I/II (50%) pancreatic cancers were higher than those of CA19-9 (36.8% and 46.7%, respectively). The combination of apoA2-ATQ/AT (cutoff, 59.5 µg/mL) and CA19-9 (37 U/mL) increased the sensitivity for pancreatic cancer to 87.7% compared with 69.8% for CA19-9 alone. The clinical performance of apoA2-is was blindly confirmed by the National Cancer Institute Early Detection Research Network. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical performance of ApoA2-ATQ/AT as a blood biomarker is equivalent to or better than that of CA19-9.

MyProstateScore in men considering repeat biopsy: validation of a simple testing approach.

BACKGROUND: Men with persistent risk of Grade Group (GG) ≥ 2 cancer after a negative biopsy present a unique clinical challenge. The validated MyProstateScore test is clinically-available for pre-biopsy risk stratification. In biopsy-naïve patients, we recently validated a straightforward testing approach to rule-out GG ≥ 2 cancer with 98% negative predictive value (NPV) and 97% sensitivity. In the current study, we established a practical MPS-based testing approach in men with a previous negative biopsy being considered for repeat biopsy. METHODS: Patients provided post-digital rectal examination urine prior to repeat biopsy. MyProstateScore was calculated using the validated, locked model including urinary PCA3 and TMPRSS2:ERG scores with serum PSA. In a clinically-appropriate primary (i.e., training) cohort, we identified a lower (rule-out) threshold approximating 90% sensitivity and an upper (rule-in) threshold approximating 80% specificity for GG ≥ 2 cancer. These thresholds were applied to an external validation cohort, and performance measures and clinical outcomes associated with their use were calculated. RESULTS: MyProstateScore thresholds of 15 and 40 met pre-defined performance criteria in the primary cohort (422 patients; median PSA 6.4, IQR 4.3-9.1). In the 268-patient validation cohort, 25 men (9.3%) had GG ≥ 2 cancer on repeat biopsy. The rule-out threshold of 15 provided 100% NPV and sensitivity for GG ≥ 2 cancer and would have prevented 23% of unnecessary biopsies. Use of MyProstateScore >40 to rule-in biopsy would have prevented 67% of biopsies while maintaining 95% NPV. In the validation cohort, the prevalence of GG ≥ 2 cancer was 0% for MyProstateScore 0-15, 6.5% for MyProstateScore 15-40, and 19% for MyProstateScore >40. CONCLUSIONS: In patients who previously underwent a negative prostate biopsy, the MyProstateScore values of 15 and 40 yielded clinically-actionable rule-in and rule-out risk groups. Using this straightforward testing approach, MyProstateScore can meaningfully inform patients and physicians weighing the need for repeat biopsy.