Optimal decision-making in oncology development programs based on probability of success for phase III utilizing phase II/III data on response and overall survival.

In clinical development, there is a trade-off between investment and level of confidence in the potential of the drug before going into phase III. Reduced investment requires the use of short-term endpoints. On new compounds, only limited information about the relationship between treatment effects of short- and long-term endpoints is usually available. Therefore, decision-making solely based on short-term endpoints does not seem desirable. Our goal is to plan an efficient development program, which uses short- and long-term endpoints data for decision-making. We found that with limited prior information and restrictions on maximum sample size, decision-making after phase II cannot be substantially improved. We follow the concept of a "phase 2+" design where after a go-to-phase-III-decision, further follow-up data from phase II are employed to make interim decisions on phase III. The program will be stopped early when additional phase II and/or available phase III data lead to a low probability of success (PoS). We utilize information from a multi-categorical short-term endpoint (response status) and a long-term endpoint (overall survival (OS)) to determine the PoS in phase III with OS as the primary endpoint. Optimal combinations of decision boundaries and time points are demonstrated in a simulation study. Our results show that the proposed second look using additional follow-up data from phase II/III improves PoS estimates compared to the first look, especially when prior data about the control arm is available. The proposed planning strategy allows a customized compromise between the quality of decision-making and program duration.

Avelumab in metastatic urothelial carcinoma after platinum failure (JAVELIN Solid Tumor): pooled results from two expansion cohorts of an open-label, phase 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: The approval of anti-programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) and anti-programmed death 1 agents has expanded treatment options for patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma. Avelumab, a human monoclonal anti-PD-L1 antibody, has shown promising antitumour activity and safety in this disease. We aimed to assess the safety profile in patients (both post-platinum therapy and cisplatin-naive) treated with avelumab and to assess antitumour activity of this drug in post-platinum patients. METHODS: In this pooled analysis of two cohorts from the phase 1 dose-expansion JAVELIN Solid Tumor study, patients aged 18 years and older with histologically or cytologically confirmed locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma that had progressed after at least one previous platinum-based chemotherapy were enrolled from 80 cancer treatment centres or hospitals in the USA, Europe, and Asia. Eligible patients had adequate end-organ function, an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, life expectancy of at least 3 months, and at least one measurable lesion. Cisplatin-ineligible patients who might have been previously treated in the perioperative setting, including platinum-naive patients, were also eligible. Patients unselected for PD-L1 expression received avelumab (10 mg/kg, 1 h intravenous infusion) every 2 weeks until confirmed disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, or other criterion for withdrawal. The primary endpoint for this efficacy expansion cohort was confirmed best overall response (according to RECIST version 1.1), adjudicated by independent review. Safety analysis was done in all patients who received at least one dose of avelumab. Antitumour activity was assessed in post-platinum patients who received at least one dose of avelumab. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01772004; enrolment in this cohort of patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma is closed and the trial is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Sept 3, 2014, and March 15, 2016, 329 patients with advanced metastatic urothelial carcinoma were screened for enrolment into this study; 249 patients were eligible and received treatment with avelumab for a median of 12 weeks (IQR 6·0-19·7) and followed up for a median of 9·9 months (4·3-12·1). Safety and antitumour activity were evaluated at data cutoff on June 9, 2016. In 161 post-platinum patients with at least 6 months of follow-up, a best overall response of complete or partial response was recorded in 27 patients (17%; 95% CI 11-24), including nine (6%) complete responses and 18 (11%) partial responses. The most frequent treatment-related adverse events (any grade in ≥10% patients) were infusion-related reaction (73 [29%]; all grade 1-2) and fatigue (40 [16%]). Grade 3 or worse treatment-related adverse events occurred in 21 (8%) of 249 patients, the most common of which were fatigue (four [2%]), and asthenia, elevated lipase, hypophosphataemia, and pneumonitis in two (1%) patients each. 19 (8%) of 249 patients had a serious adverse event related to treatment with avelumab, and one treatment-related death occurred (pneumonitis). INTERPRETATION: Avelumab showed antitumour activity in the treatment of patients with platinum-refractory metastatic urothelial carcinoma; a manageable safety profile was reported in all avelumab-treated patients. These data provide the rationale for therapeutic use of avelumab in metastatic urothelial carcinoma and it has received accelerated US FDA approval in this setting on this basis. FUNDING: Merck KGaA, and Pfizer Inc.