[Spatial clustering analysis and trend of liver cancer death rate in Shandong province, 1970-2013].

Objective: To explore the spatial clustering and trend of liver cancer mortality in different counties of Shandong province from 1970 to 2013, and provide scientific basis for the development of liver cancer prevention and control plan. Methods: Cancer mortality data were obtained from Shandong Death Registration System and three national death cause surveys in China. Mortality rate and age adjusted mortality rate were used to describe the trend of liver cancer in different years. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the change of mortality. Software ArcGIS 10.2 was used for spatial analysis, and software SaTScan 9.4 was used for spatial clustering analysis on liver cancer mortality. Results: From 2011 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer (29.89/100 000) in Shandong increased by 208.00% and 35.37% respectively compared with that during 1970-1974 (9.72/100 000) and 1990-1992 (22.08/100 000) and was similar to that during 2004-2005 (30.44/100 000). While age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) increased first and then decreased. The ASMR during 2011-2013 (12.62/100 000) increased by 60.97% compared with that during 1970-1974 and decreased by 22.38% and 21.81% compared with that during 1990-1992 and 2004-2005, respectively. According to the difference decomposition analysis on liver cancer mortality in different years, the contribution of population factors to the liver cancer mortality rate increased from 3.38% during 1990-1992 to 29.36% during 2004-2005 and 46.16% during 2011-2013. However, the contribution of non-population factors to the increase of liver cancer mortality decreased. According to the spatial distribution of liver cancer mortality, the crude mortality rate of liver cancer in different counties were quite different, ranging from 9.33/100 000 to 65.33/100 000. Using the spatial scanning statistical software to analyze the spatial clustering of liver cancer mortality, multi areas with high mortality rate of liver cancer were found, and they were mainly distributed in Jiaodong peninsula from 2011 to 2013, covering 20 counties (cities, districts) in Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai. The risk of liver cancer mortality in this area was 1.54 times higher than that in other areas. The spatial clustering distribution of liver cancer mortality during 1970-1974 was significantly different from that during 2011-2013, the areas with high mortality rate during 1970-1974 were mainly distributed in central and western Shandong. Conclusions: There were significant temporal and spatial distribution changes in the mortality rate of liver cancer in Shandong from 1970 to 2013. According to these trends and their geographical and spatial distribution, we should further explore the risk factors of liver cancer, and formulate feasible and area specific prevention and control measures for liver cancer.

[Trend of mortality and decomposition on malignant tumors in Shandong province, 1970-2013].

Objective: To describe the mortality trend of major malignant tumors in Shandong province, from 1970 to 2013. Methods: Data related to cancer mortality were obtained from the Shandong Death Registration System and three nationwide retrospective cause-of-death surveys. Trends of overall mortality and major causes of death were described using the indicators as: mortality rates and age-standardized mortality rates, through comparing the three large-scale mortality surveys in Shandong province. Difference decomposing method was applied to estimate the contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors for the change of mortality. Results: From 1970 to 2013, the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors in Shandong was increasing. The age standard mortality rate was increasing and then decreasing. The composition of cancer deaths in the all-cause-deaths was seen increasing and then decreasing as well. Both demographic and non-demographic factors contributed to the increase of crude cancer mortality rate. With the gradual increase of the proportion of population, its role exceeded the non-demographic factors. The age-standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in 2011-2013 was lower than that in 2004-2005. Lung cancer mortality rose from the fifth to the first place, with an increase of 6.81 times from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Ranking of gastric cancer mortality dropped from first to the third place, with esophageal cancer dropped from second to the fourth. After adjusted by China's standard population in 1964, the mortality rate of lung cancer was still rapidly increasing, but the age-standardized mortality rates of esophageal cancer was gradually decreasing. The crude and age-standardized mortality rates of cervical cancer showed a rapid downward trend, reduced 87.00% and 93.00% respectively from 1970-1974 to 2011-2013. Conclusions: Malignant tumors were still major threats to the residents of Shandong province. The changing trend of different malignant tumors presented an inconsistent nature which called for different intervention strategies be carried out, accordingly.

[Association between hematocrit and risk of incident hypertension: a cohort study].

Objective: To explore the association between hematocrit level and risk of incident hypertension. Method: Subjects who participated at least two times routine health check-up in Health Management Center of Shandong Province Hospital between January 2005 and January 2010 were eligible for inclusion. After excluding participants with known hypertension and other related diseases, a prospective cohort with 20 606 subjects (female: 8 218, male: 12 388) was established. Cox-proportional hazard model was used to assess the association between hematocrit and the development of hypertension for female and male respectively. Results: During the 51 352 person-years of follow-up, newly developed hypertension was confirmed in 3 695 cases. For female, the age-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident hypertension were 1.00 (reference), 1.06(0.86-1.29), 1.37(1.14-1.65), 1.60(1.34-1.92), respectively (P for trend<0.000 1) through the 3 quartiles of hematocrit levels.After adjusting multiple factors (age, smoking, drinking habit, physical activity, body mass index(BMI), systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, serum creatinine, high-density lipoprotein, gamma-glutamyl transferase, white blood count), the hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.00(reference), 1.05(0.85-1.29), 1.25(1.03-1.51), and 1.22(1.00-1.48), respectively (P for trend=0.016 9). For male, the hazard ratio (the highest vs. the lowest hematocrit level) after adjusting age or age and life style factors (smoking, drinking habit, physical activity) was 1.23 (1.11-1.37), 1.21(1.09-1.35), respectively. Other analyses of relationship hematocrit with incident hypertension were not statistically significant in male. Conclusions: Higher hematocrit level is associated with higher risk of incident hypertension, especially in female.